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Severe weather warning for west/north west
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13-12-2010 8:01pm#1
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This fella here seems to have a good grasp of things, http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69541575&postcount=230
#230 M.T. Cranium
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 1,998
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This may tend to look like just a dry northerly with local wintry showers, but the depth of cold air in this "Greenland express" is the deal maker, and the transfer of the polar vortex southwest across Ireland towards Kerry is likely to turn the wind flow around into more of a southeast or easterly flow by Sunday ... so the main dynamics of this cold spell are likely to be
(a) initial blast of sudden cold, locally heavy snow in north and west, but some brief squally showers elsewhere (Thursday into early Friday)
(b) settling in of deep cold aided by new snow cover, slack winds, clearing skies, and feed from very cold pockets over Britain, possibly giving severe minimum temps (below -12 C) by Saturday morning ... this may continue in the north into Sunday morning.
(c) possible snowfall events of moderate or even heavy amounts, affecting the south and east, as lows form to the south of Ireland and interact with the deep cold in place.
Could also state that the GFS model has been almost routinely losing the plot after 6-8 days with its tendency to allow spurious mild rebounds from the southwest courtesy of deep lows that end up being much further south at event time. In other words, any depictions of sudden breakdowns and thaws have to be treated with caution. Sooner or later, one will happen (the recent mini-thaw was more of an anticylonic interval that was a necessary step in building up the Greenland block). Looking back at past "severe" or epochal type winters, the Greenland high tends to become semi-permanent so we have to factor in that with these synoptics, there has to be a reasonable chance of a long-lasting cold spell. There is even colder air waiting in parts of Russia to move towards Scandinavia and add a bitter continental feed to the mix, and then the North Sea is chilling rapidly thanks to the outpouring of near-freezing water from the Baltic and from rivers running into the North Sea. All the building blocks are in place for some very severe winter weather.
Any sort of responsible probability analysis would say that the chances of disruption from snow in Ireland and the southern U.K. must be higher than normal by a factor of five or even ten to one. But there is nothing quite carved in stone yet. I think the period Sunday to Tuesday is very likely to see snow in parts of Ireland, let's leave it at that for now. Potential amounts would range from slight to very considerable, won't speculate with numbers.0 -
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Thanks mick you saved me trawling through all the pages looking for mts posts:)
I follow all his posts, he really seems to know his stuff, rte should have him reading the weather:p there predicting drizzle
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, I really want it to snow heavy and cover the whole place 
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