Leinster (Including Dublin): Cold spell and snow discussion (15/12/2010)

Speak Now

dillo2k10 wrote: »

So is everyone on here agreeing that there will be a lot of snow?
If so when do you expect the snow to start falling in Dublin?

According to this website it will start snowing on Thursday
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wisi

Above is a quote from the winter outlook thread. This place is going to be funny for the next 4/5 days.

H2UMrsRobinson

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Get it right :P Four Provinces = Three threads

I stand corrected...:D counting not my strong point!

Vudgie

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Above is a quote from the winter outlook thread. This place is going to be funny for the next 4/5 days.

Come on, its not totally unreasonable to look for the percise time of snow over a percise location.

And you guys call yourselves experts:D

smokin ace

Vudgie wrote: »

Come on, its not totally unreasonable to look for the percise time of snow over a percise location.

And you guys call yourselves experts:D[/QUO

dont be nagging snow experts here met could not even let the people know that snow is on the way but the experts here did

Vudgie

smokin ace wrote: »

Vudgie wrote: »

Come on, its not totally unreasonable to look for the percise time of snow over a percise location.

And you guys call yourselves experts:D[/QUO

dont be nagging snow experts here met could not even let the people know that snow is on the way but the experts here did

I know sarcasm is the lowest form of wit but I thought I had phrased my post to indicate that.

Anyway back on topic.

kopp

Im hearing mixed comments on the weather. People are saying its to start getting cold and snowy from tomorrow onwards. Looking at Met.ie, they predict rain...

"Rain and drizzle becoming persistent on Thursday morning, turning to sleet or snow for a time, especially on higher ground, before clearing early in the afternoon. Fresh to strong, west to northwest winds veering northwest to north, moderate to fresh with the clearance. Becoming very cold by evening; highest temperatures in the morning 7 or 8 degrees Celsius."

7 or 8 degrees?

Samba

Perhaps to avoid any further unrest and to qualm the PC brigade, we should be referring to N S E & W Leinster :pac:

Do you think there will be major disruption of East Leinster Airport From Monday-Wednesday next week? Assuming the worst of course..

Samba

kopp wrote: »

highest temperatures in the morning 7 or 8 degrees Celsius."[/B]

7 or 8 degrees?

I believe someone stated that the day will start off like that but as the afternoon ticks on temperatures will rapidly plummet.

kopp

Samba wrote: »

I believe someone stated that the day will start off like that but as the afternoon ticks on temperatures will rapidly plummet.

Cool, thanks man

Tabnabs

kopp wrote: »

Cool, thanks man

I see what you did there. :cool:

Tabnabs

Two major snow events in less than a month. If only we had warm sunny summers Ireland would be a wonderful place to live!

For those who can't/don't remember, this is Dublin 16 in 1982

kopp

Dyflin wrote: »

Two major snow events in less than a month. If only we had warm sunny summers Ireland would be a wonderful place to live!

For those who can't/don't remember, this is Dublin 16 in 1982

Jeezy creezy!! I wasnt alive to see it, but god you'd swear it was the Antarctic

TURRICAN

HEY MR MODERATOR id change the "inc dublin" as it is only creating hot steam on the forum.leinster is leinster and if the people dont know that dublin is in leinster or have to be reminded about it ....well what can i say then.;)

Tenger

Dyflin wrote: »

For those who can't/don't remember, this is Dublin 16 in 1982[/IMG]

For years I have had a hazy memory of people walking across the lake at home (Lough Muckno, Castleblayney, Co. Moanghan) I always thought it was a figment of my imagination until a few months back when the weather experts referred to the conditions of 1982. I asked my parents, turns out it was true.

As a reference: the point in the lake where this happened is approx 100 metres across. Seemed like miles to a wee boy though!! (For any locals it was from The Point to The White island)

5starpool

I assume the latest forecasts mean that there is little to no threat of Dublin airport disruption on thursday evening then?

Defcol

Dyflin wrote: »

Two major snow events in less than a month. If only we had warm sunny summers Ireland would be a wonderful place to live!

For those who can't/don't remember, this is Dublin 16 in 1982

Whereabouts in D16? I'm originally from Knocklyon, i was 5 in 1982 so only vague memories

Irish Steve

Samba wrote: »

Do you think there will be major disruption of East Leinster Airport From Monday-Wednesday next week? Assuming the worst of course..

Too hard to call at the moment.

If the streamers off the Irish Sea are being modified by the Isle of Man, as they were recently, then there is a strong chance of disruption, partly because DAA seems to only respond after the event rather than being proactive, and partly because the streamers have the potential to dump significant and regular falls of snow on a narrow band that includes the area of the airport. A lot will depend on the wind direction, and if it's NE oriented, then there is for sure the potential for a repeat performance of the last 3 weeks, and on some days, that included several closures of the airport.

Hopefully, DAA have learnt that they need the clearing crews in place. rather than "calling them in" after the event, but I'm not about to start holding my breath on that one.

It will very much be a case of watching the nowcasts in places like here, and looking at things like the raintoday radar site to see where the streamers are making landfall and then tracking. A very small change in the wind direction can make a very significant difference to the areas that are affected, as we saw in recent weeks. I'm in Ashbourne, and was out and around the area regularly, it was very noticable where the streamers were, or were not, and strange at times to be in bright sunshine, then drive through a narrow band of heavy graupel snow, only to emerge shortly after into bright sunshine again, and to see that snow band continue to produce significant precipitation for prolonged periods.

We've lived here for 20 years, and in that time, I've never seen a scenario where we've had snow every day for a week, but that happened recently. There have been stong hints that the recent snow was a "warm up" event for what's coming over the next while. If that's the case, all bets are off in regard to what might be about to happen, I've seen significant snowfall on a few occasions in the UK, 62/3, 75 & 82 all come to mind, and on each occasions, they were memorable for different reasons. 62/3 in the South West of the UK was significant for the period of cold, without much precipitation, 75 and 82 were significant for the quantity of snow that fell in a very short period of time, albeit that the thaw did not take too long coming along behind.

The impression from MT's excellent forecasts is that there is the potential for both prolonged periods of cold, with regular outbreaks of fresh snow. That's not something that this country is accustomed to or prepared for, both in terms of salt, equipment to clear the snow, or the manpower to do the clearing. We can't altogether blame "the system" for that, as I mentioned before, this is the first time in over 20 years that we've seen potential conditions this severe, and snow clearing machines are expensive to buy, expensive to store and even more expensive to maintain in good working order, and on many occasions, due to the nature of the weather systems, (Ireland doesn't have climate, it has weather ), that expensive and complex snow clearing equipment may not be suitable to clear the snow. One sort of machine is needed for powdery snow, another altogether is needed for packed Ice snow that has stuck to the road surface, and they don't easily, quickly or cheaply convert from one type to the other.

I've seen this type of weather hit Colorado one February, the temperature went from 20C to -20C overnight, and in the process dumped 50 cm of snow over a very wide area. Even the relatively minor roads were open again within a few hours, the snow blowers could clear them with relative ease.

The models, the forecasts and the speculators are all agreeing that the next period of time is going to be challenging, but predicting the exact severity of the events, and the specific locations will be almost impossible, and will change from hour to hour.

Watch places like this forum, the most up to date and accurate information is very likely to be here. That depends of course on the ESB, Broadband services and ISP's not buckling under the strain, which is possible. If that happens, then good old fashioned radio may be your only recourse.

To coin a phrase from an old TV series

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE

Supercell

Looking at the 6z 850s it would seem that its game on Saturday evening from around 1800 onwards really. I forecast the Isle of Man will break many hearts again!

ninebeanrows

Mental Mickey wrote: »

****ing snow! :mad:

Enough is enough, no more posts like this.

kopp

kopp wrote: »

Im hearing mixed comments on the weather. People are saying its to start getting cold and snowy from tomorrow onwards. Looking at Met.ie, they predict rain...

"Rain and drizzle becoming persistent on Thursday morning, turning to sleet or snow for a time, especially on higher ground, before clearing early in the afternoon. Fresh to strong, west to northwest winds veering northwest to north, moderate to fresh with the clearance. Becoming very cold by evening; highest temperatures in the morning 7 or 8 degrees Celsius."

7 or 8 degrees?

yes the highest temps will be in the morning in the south ahead of the front.
Thats too vague a forecast from them,they should have said where the 7 or 8c will be.
As the front passes through,those highest temps in the extreme south will drop to 2 or 3c with large parts dropping below zero further north

ninebeanrows

Well focusing on the potential snow storm progged to sit somewhere over Ireland and Britain Saturday morning.

The positioning of this is still very much being considered.

The crucial time has now reached T+78hrs on the models and a quick run through the models would indicate the low developing over Ireland during Friday with snow developing to the north and push southwest across the Irish sea into central England and intensifying as the storm builds rapidly.

A quick glance through the ensembles indicates a high variance in the positioning of low on Saturday morning.

Around 8/20 back up the 6z model run which places it over London midday Saturday with bands of snow circulating around it.

6/20 have the low banked nearer the Irish east coast with bands of snow affecting southern and eastern Ireland.

The rest have varying underdeveloped lows.

The result is the positioning of the low will probably not be known until tomorrow mornings model runs, hopefully the 12z will give a decent indication but we will really have to wait until it begins to come within the T48hr timeframe before we can forecast with confidence.

What i would say is that widespread snow is likely to steadily push across the country through Friday afternoon, the intensity and longevity of it is unknown at this time, anywhere from 2cm to 20cm is possible so keep up to date.

The after this period increased possibility of easterly feed developing delivering snow showers to east coast from Sunday onwards.

All very uncertain.

TheMilkyPirate

Weathercheck wrote: »

All very uncertain.

Yet all very exciting.

Tabnabs

Defcol wrote: »

Whereabouts in D16? I'm originally from Knocklyon, i was 5 in 1982 so only vague memories

I got it via google images from here. It says it's Knocklyon, that might be your neighbour?!

Edit: it may be Tallaght, the captions seems to contradict?

(they probably stole the snow from Knocklyon anyway!)

Vudgie

What needs to happen in the set up for Dublin (east Leinster in general) to get no snow this weekend.

I know it is being pretty much guaranteed across the board that we will get some/ a lot but I am just interested in the potential changes that would cause a lack of snow.

Defcol

Dyflin wrote: »

I got it via google images from here. It says it's Knocklyon, that might be your neighbour?!

Edit: it may be Tallaght, the captions seems to contradict?

(they probably stole the snow from Knocklyon anyway!)

It's definitely knocklyon. Mount Alton to be exact. I was convinced i knew it. One of my mates lives in that last house you can see on the left.

I compared the image with recent Google Street View image and there are unmistakeable identifiers

TheMilkyPirate

This place is dead compared to the other regional threads, I've a feeling it won't be like that come the weekend mind you

wicklowdub

Precip chart looks ok on Thursday but only Uslter looks like getting precip on Friday. Not sure if conditions will be right for snow on either day tbh.

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Iancar29

Snow shovel ... CHECK *

Studded tracks for runners... CHECK *

... all i need now is snow...!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Snow shovel ... CHECK *

Studded tracks for runners... CHECK *

... all i need now is snow...!

Head down to Clondalkin, they always have loads there haha

th3 s1aught3r

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well focusing on the potential snow storm progged to sit somewhere over Ireland and Britain Saturday morning.

The positioning of this is still very much being considered.

The crucial time has now reached T+78hrs on the models and a quick run through the models would indicate the low developing over Ireland during Friday with snow developing to the north and push southwest across the Irish sea into central England and intensifying as the storm builds rapidly.

A quick glance through the ensembles indicates a high variance in the positioning of low on Saturday morning.

Around 8/20 back up the 6z model run which places it over London midday Saturday with bands of snow circulating around it.

6/20 have the low banked nearer the Irish east coast with bands of snow affecting southern and eastern Ireland.

The rest have varying underdeveloped lows.

The result is the positioning of the low will probably not be known until tomorrow mornings model runs, hopefully the 12z will give a decent indication but we will really have to wait until it begins to come within the T48hr timeframe before we can forecast with confidence.

What i would say is that widespread snow is likely to steadily push across the country through Friday afternoon, the intensity and longevity of it is unknown at this time, anywhere from 2cm to 20cm is possible so keep up to date.

The after this period increased possibility of easterly feed developing delivering snow showers to east coast from Sunday onwards.

All very uncertain.

Is this like the situation we had a few weeks ago where streamers would sit off the east coast and push in over the east coast ocassionally. How does the wind affect this senario ?