Munster: Cold spell and snow discussion (15/12/2010)

nacho libre

leahyl wrote: »

Can any experts reading this give a brief summary of the main points cos to be honest i am totally confused - read in one thread that the bbc are talking of milder conditions again on Sunday for the south (no i realise this may be the south of england but still) and then i am hearing that the whole country is going to get massive amounts of snow!!!

Then i look at the GFS charts and people say 'oh they aren't very reliable'!

Is the answer to this basically - 'we don't know'??!!:D

beyond saturday, yes. it is impossible to know the exact track of low pressure systems. warm sectors could spoil the party for some regions. gfs runs seem to change every day so take any talk of milder weather prevailing next week from them with skepticism. although they have to get it right sometime! 4- 5 days of snow and cold is hard to sustain, so it won't surprise me if less cold maritime conditions do prevail by midweek. still i think it would be likely that most places on this island will have seen some snow by Saturday night.

gbee

leahyl wrote: »

Is the answer to this basically - 'we don't know'??!!:D

Sortof. The all important word is potential. Everywhere has the potential for snow, rain, high winds and freezing temperatures.

In Cork we will get the least, probably be the last to freeze and the first to thaw.

There is an expected temperature drop in one hour of 10°C associated with the front, in Cork this is expected to be just a 4°C drop for instance.

There are hurricane force winds associated with the front, we probably won't get those, but as local fronts form from the main influence they may bring gales and blizzards of a relatively short lived variety.

After the front had passed other weather influences begin, streamers form and it's these that will deliver the snow. Streamers are unpredictable. Once formed they can be tracked.

DarkJager

Can anyone give me an idea whether the Limerick-Cork region will be seeing any snow before the weekend? Really praying it will hold off until Sunday so I can get home Friday night

laurence997

DarkJager wrote: »

Can anyone give me an idea whether the Limerick-Cork region will be seeing any snow before the weekend? Really praying it will hold off until Sunday so I can get home Friday night

I don't think there'll be that much snow before the weekend tbh, but probably a light enough scattering. Then again, i am no expert, just echoing whats being said around here.
I think it should get a fair bit heavier Sat. and Sunday in particular;)

laurence997

DarkJager wrote: »

Can anyone give me an idea whether the Limerick-Cork region will be seeing any snow before the weekend? Really praying it will hold off until Sunday so I can get home Friday night

By the way, where are you driving to/from? Is it between Cork and Limerick or further afield. That could have a rather large bearing on how safe it is to drive.

DarkJager

laurence997 wrote: »

By the way, where are you driving to/from? Is it between Cork and Limerick or further afield. That could have a rather large bearing on how safe it is to drive.

Thanks for the reply! I'm due to finish work at 11pm on Fri night and will be driving from Cork City to Co.Limerick. Starting to get worried about all this talk of snow now, I really hope it doesn't come anywhere near us till Saturday at least.

laurence997

DarkJager wrote: »

Thanks for the reply! I'm due to finish work at 11pm on Fri night and will be driving from Cork City to Co.Limerick. Starting to get worried about all this talk of snow now, I really hope it doesn't come anywhere near us till Saturday at least.

Did you see MT Craniums snowfall predictions table he posted yesterday(I think)? He might make out an updated version today if we ask him nicely

ellieh1

laurence997 wrote: »

Did you see MT Craniums snowfall predictions table he posted yesterday(I think)? He might make out an updated version today if we ask him nicely

MTC early call for snowfall amounts
___________________________________

Okay, rather than beating around the bush, I have put together this little table of predicted snowfall amounts based on a consensus of the various models, my research ideas, and whatever came to hand ... and this is how much snowfall I am expecting in various regions of Ireland these next five days (starting Thursday). The regions are fairly broad but you can probably find your forecast here. Amounts are in cms and the time intervals are the 24 hours of each day. Within that, you would have to look at the guidance to figure out what part of those days the snow was actually going to fall. And these are subject to change as the models and forecasting tools change. In all cases, some coastal locations prone to mixing will see less.

REGION .............. THURS .... FRI ..... SAT ..... SUN ..... MON
____________________________________________________

Ulster ..................... 08 ...... 07 ...... 10 ..... 07 ...... 03

Connacht ................ 05 ...... 10 ...... 03 ..... 03 ...... 02

West Munster, Clare .. 03 ..... 03 ...... 05 ..... 10 ...... 10

East Munster ............ 01 ..... 02 ...... 05 ..... 10 ...... 10

inland southeast ....... 02 ..... 03 ...... 05 ..... 15 ...... 15

Dublin/Wicklow ......... 01 ..... 02 ...... 05 ..... 10 ...... 15

rest of Leinster ........ 03 ..... 04 ...... 05 ..... 07 ...... 07


There we go (Copied and pasted from other thread)

laurence997

Thanks ellieh1, I couldn't find that. (while you're at it you could reduce Leinsters/Dublins snowfall amounts to a cm or two :P)
Actually, is that a chart of accumulated snowfall, or just what falls each of the days?. That'd mean up to a foot of snow for me , well, looking at it optimistically :P:D

DarkJager

laurence997 wrote: »

Thanks ellieh1, I couldn't find that. (while you're at it you could reduce Leinsters/Dublins snowfall amounts to a cm or two :P)
Actually, is that a chart of accumulated snowfall, or just what falls each of the days?. That'd mean up to a foot of snow for me , well, looking at it optimistically :P:D

So for Limerick/Cork we're expecting 3cm over the course of 24 hours on Friday? That doesn't sound too bad, although I hope I'm reading that table some bit right

ellieh1

laurence997 wrote: »

Thanks ellieh1, I couldn't find that. (while you're at it you could reduce Leinsters/Dublins snowfall amounts to a cm or two :P)
Actually, is that a chart of accumulated snowfall, or just what falls each of the days?. That'd mean up to a foot of snow for me , well, looking at it optimistically :P:D

From what I understand its amounts falling per 24 hour period and not accumulated amounts, which is all the better for us :D

Adjust figures?? Me?? *looks around to see if anyone is watching* :p

aurora 527

I wonder has MTs estimation on snowfall amounts, changed much since yesterday!!

Timistry

:rolleyes:

gbee wrote: »

This event was never a major snow event, it's a major freeze event and maybe unique to Ireland.

Conditions for snow, no snow, major snow or just rain that freezes are rampant during this period.

Somewhere in Ireland, probably in the Northern part, two teams could line out for a County Final in mild and even sunny conditions. Before the final whistle there could be a blizzard leaving 10cm of snow on the pitch and their clothing frozen in the dressing rooms.

Day after tomorrow was in fact based on this very science. Admittedly the film took artistic licence and enhanced the effect.

gbee wrote: »

Sortof. The all important word is potential. Everywhere has the potential for snow, rain, high winds and freezing temperatures.

In Cork we will get the least, probably be the last to freeze and the first to thaw.

There is an expected temperature drop in one hour of 10°C associated with the front, in Cork this is expected to be just a 4°C drop for instance.

There are hurricane force winds associated with the front, we probably won't get those, but as local fronts form from the main influence they may bring gales and blizzards of a relatively short lived variety.

After the front had passed other weather influences begin, streamers form and it's these that will deliver the snow. Streamers are unpredictable. Once formed they can be tracked.

:rolleyes: madness!!

fizzycyst

where is everyone from from Munster?, no posts since quarter to seven, how disappointing

sunbabe08

well things have improved weather channel is saying 50% of snow now for cork, yesterday it was like 30%

fizzycyst

I really hope Waterford doesn't miss out on this, there's no real talk of snow this far down the country

NIALL D

yo

jus after gettin on... around saturday is looking like the best day for snow in munster i think from what ive read , am i right ???

laurence997

I can't wait for it to start Roll on tomorrow :P

M.T. Cranium

Hey for a moment there, I thought this thread title was Monster Snow Event.

Anyway, I have updated that snowfall prediction table and posted the update in the forecast thread. Just a general note, with things likely to become very busy on the weather forum, any and all of my forecast updates will go in the forecast thread first. I may pop in where I can to post some details or see what people are reporting and discussing.

It certainly looks like small amounts of snow each day at the very least, and perhaps some significant amounts by the weekend. Higher parts of Kerry and Cork are likely to see heavy falls tomorrow and Friday but these hills tend to shield Cork (city especially) from some of the effects, and the lower elevation will keep temperatures marginal for most until late Thursday and this may also intrude on Friday's showers at peak heating mid-day, but this is such a strong arctic outbreak that even temperate south to southwest coastal locations could see snow showers from it.

However, the better chances for significant snow will come on the weekend and while the heavy snow may be more for Leinster, it will come spilling through into East Munster and could spread as far west as Cork with Kerry becoming perhaps the least likely to see the heavy amounts but still in with some chance.

I feel at present that this will be a disruptive and potentially major winter storm developing across all of Ireland and the U.K. (and where snow is not a problem, bitter cold may be). Take care if you have to travel over this period.

Trotter

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey for a moment there, I thought this thread title was Monster Snow Event.

Anyway, I have updated that snowfall prediction table and posted the update in the forecast thread. Just a general note, with things likely to become very busy on the weather forum, any and all of my forecast updates will go in the forecast thread first. I may pop in where I can to post some details or see what people are reporting and discussing.

It certainly looks like small amounts of snow each day at the very least, and perhaps some significant amounts by the weekend. Higher parts of Kerry and Cork are likely to see heavy falls tomorrow and Friday but these hills tend to shield Cork (city especially) from some of the effects, and the lower elevation will keep temperatures marginal for most until late Thursday and this may also intrude on Friday's showers at peak heating mid-day, but this is such a strong arctic outbreak that even temperate south to southwest coastal locations could see snow showers from it.

However, the better chances for significant snow will come on the weekend and while the heavy snow may be more for Leinster, it will come spilling through into East Munster and could spread as far west as Cork with Kerry becoming perhaps the least likely to see the heavy amounts but still in with some chance.

I feel at present that this will be a disruptive and potentially major winter storm developing across all of Ireland and the U.K. (and where snow is not a problem, bitter cold may be). Take care if you have to travel over this period.

Thanks a lot for dropping in to see us MT!

I need to get my wife to the hospital in Waterford City for the birth of our 1st baby most likely sometime between this Saturday and next Saturday.

From what I can gather, Sunday - Tuesday seem to be the days I need to be most careful in terms of heavy snow here. Would you agree?

Strangegravy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey for a moment there, I thought this thread title was Monster Snow Event.

Anyway, I have updated that snowfall prediction table and posted the update in the forecast thread. Just a general note, with things likely to become very busy on the weather forum, any and all of my forecast updates will go in the forecast thread first. I may pop in where I can to post some details or see what people are reporting and discussing.

It certainly looks like small amounts of snow each day at the very least, and perhaps some significant amounts by the weekend. Higher parts of Kerry and Cork are likely to see heavy falls tomorrow and Friday but these hills tend to shield Cork (city especially) from some of the effects, and the lower elevation will keep temperatures marginal for most until late Thursday and this may also intrude on Friday's showers at peak heating mid-day, but this is such a strong arctic outbreak that even temperate south to southwest coastal locations could see snow showers from it.

However, the better chances for significant snow will come on the weekend and while the heavy snow may be more for Leinster, it will come spilling through into East Munster and could spread as far west as Cork with Kerry becoming perhaps the least likely to see the heavy amounts but still in with some chance.

I feel at present that this will be a disruptive and potentially major winter storm developing across all of Ireland and the U.K. (and where snow is not a problem, bitter cold may be). Take care if you have to travel over this period.

Thanks Peter.. much appreciated!!

Pity it won't affect me getting to my college exam tomorrow morning!

fizzycyst

MT, thanks again for giving your time updating us and for being so specific, it is greatly appreciated

leahyl

Yes thanks M.T. - but it seems from what you said there that Cork City may not get that much if the hills have anything to do with it??! Lets hope that's not the case and this arctic blast wins out and brings us lots and LOTS of snow!:D

It would be great also if we got a few flurries Christmas Eve - making it the perfect Christmas for me!:)

laurence997

leahyl wrote: »

It would be great also if we got a few flurries Christmas Eve - making it the perfect Christmas for me!:)

Good for the paddypowers cork city white christmas too :P

Bogsnorkler

For once i'm praying for no snow in the south west, flying to Kerry on Saturday and i'm pretty worried!

laurence997

Bogsnorkler wrote: »

For once i'm praying for no snow in the south west, flying to Kerry on Saturday and i'm pretty worried!

Wrong time you're praying now I'd say :P