Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

wicklowdub

Small band of precip for Dublin later tonight acccording to belgingur: Not much though

Tornando9

That fax chart is terrible for snow.:rolleyes:

look at the sheer length of the streamer from the isle of man down into wales.
People under than must be getting a tonne of snow.
Thats why we need a North easterly in the East.
The north westerly streamers just dont have the oo0mph to make it into leinster.
Whereas irish sea streamers it has been proven can travel all the way down to limerick dumping lots of snow in the midlands en route.

ro_chez

The rotating system to the east of Iceland on http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html, it appears to be moving in a more southerly direction towards us but are we expecting it to head out to our west over the Atlantic or is it expected to rebound back to the east over uk/north sea towards central europe?

cherryghost

ro_chez wrote: »

The rotating system to the east of Iceland on http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html, it appears to be moving in a more southerly direction towards us but are we expecting it to head out to our west over the Atlantic or is it expected to rebound back to the east over uk/north sea towards central europe?

Judging by airflow, it'll rebound I'm afraid, unless we see a slight shift westwards. Could happen. The whole weekends been up and down regarding forecasts

lucernarian

opr wrote: »

It is further W/NW than modelled but not sure how that alters things overall.

Opr

I'm really not sure about that, it's moving further south than the models expected for midday and perhaps slightly more easterly? I think it'll travel further south hitting the west of Ireland and then won't head eastwards until it's clear of Kerry. In other words, its approach to Ireland will run more N-S rather than NE-SW. But that's mainly based on experience and intuition, and the sat24 imagery of course

ro_chez

ro_chez wrote: »

The rotating system to the east of Iceland on http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html, it appears to be moving in a more southerly direction towards us but are we expecting it to head out to our west over the Atlantic or is it expected to rebound back to the east over uk/north sea towards central europe?

That has a solid track that should bring it south south east towards sw scotland Eastern NI and on towards liverpool and down the uk midlands.
It isn't touching us bar perhaps enhancing showers in ulster for a time but not in leinster or Dublin as it's track is away from there.

Defcol

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I'm really not sure about that, it's moving further south than the models expected for midday and perhaps slightly more easterly? I think it'll travel further south hitting the west of Ireland and then won't head eastwards until it's clear of Kerry. In other words, its approach to Ireland will run more N-S rather than NE-SW. But that's mainly based on experience and intuition, and the sat24 imagery of course

Would that take it right over the country or down the west side?

premiercad

Noaa Charts for east adlantic


next few hours

Tornando9

Have you got a bigger one i can't see that one.

Vudgie

Just throwing up charts sourced from the internet without any analysis at all is pointless for everyone bar are more educated friends.

Can everyone even give us a line or two on what they are showing.

Thanks:D

inabina

eagle, radio 1 now

nacho libre

cherryghost wrote: »

The snowfall for Sunday might move further north I think, meaning more widespread snowfall than forecasted. Wait and see how things eveolve over the next 24-48 hours

indeed wait and see because as we're finding out charts can't be trusted at even six-12 hours out in this complex setup. i think it will be sheer ill luck if most places don't see at least one decent prolonged fall of snow before things dry out.

inabina

eagle " east and south will get snow overnight"... "threat of snow to remain next week and will stay freezing most of week". "embedded polar lows"

leahyl

inabina wrote: »

eagle, radio 1 now

Anything incredibly exciting???!!:)

cherryghost

inabina wrote: »

eagle " east and south will get snow overnight"... "threat of snow to remain next week and will stay freezing most of week". "embedded polar lows"

I'm tellin ya, I'm REALLY excited about the prospect of Atlantic vs Arctic rain/snowstorm fight on Christmas day. It's the only reliable constant over the last few days.

maquiladora

inabina wrote: »

eagle " east and south will get snow overnight"... "threat of snow to remain next week and will stay freezing most of week". "embedded polar lows"

lucernarian

Deleted User wrote: »

That has a solid track that should bring it south south east towards sw scotland Eastern NI and on towards liverpool and down the uk midlands.
It isn't touching us bar perhaps enhancing showers in ulster for a time but not in leinster or Dublin as it's track is away from there.

What LP system are you looking at? The one to the east of Iceland is modelled to come southwards and then clip Cork and Kerry. It's the one that's been the centre of speculation due to the models moving the track further north across central Ireland and subsequently England, or further south through the Celtic Sea and Channel.

leahyl

inabina wrote: »

eagle " east and south will get snow overnight"... "threat of snow to remain next week and will stay freezing most of week". "embedded polar lows"

WOOHOO!!

The eagle on radio one is ramping as we speak then
Northwesterly with embedded polar lows continuing the showers in the north and west.
More extensive snow including the east and south over night and then...his piece de resistance...focus changes to the East coast tomorrow and less so the west and north as the winds go East

He said the further outlook...snow risk for the foreseeable...

He's lying
Couldn't be the case

inabina

leahyl wrote: »

WOOHOO!!

We just love the Eagle! tells us what we want to hear, and says it in the right way.

lucernarian

I remember him talking about a polar low to hit Ireland a year or two ago, and it wasn't even a polar low. I think he just said it to wind up people here:D

leahyl

inabina wrote: »

We just love the Eagle! tells us what we want to hear, and says it in the right way.

Couldnt agree with you more!! Eagle is DA MAN!!:D

premiercad

Have you got a bigger one i can't see that one.

:D the real adlantic is a lot smaller :D

inabina

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I remember him talking about a polar low to hit Ireland a year or two ago, and it wasn't even a polar low. I think he just said it to wind up people here:D

and "embedded polar lows" reffered to in the shipping forecast MET situation. I would love to bed a polar low.

cherryghost

Anyone waiting with bated breath for the next forecast models to roll out, expect it between 3.30 - 4.00 today

fricatus

leahyl wrote: »

Couldnt agree with you more!! Eagle is DA MAN!!:D

Betcha he ran back to his computer from the studio and refreshed this thread!

Tornando9

I don't post here that much i'm a regular on the IWN but our general consensus over there is that this is a nowcast.

The charts are FI after 12hrs.

A few of us have access to the hi-resolution models that give forecasts to the nearest 8km.

The latest run 06z shows a small intense band sweeping into the west later. Its not a huge band but should deliver some snow in a line from Sligo to Wexford the band is not very wide and should only effect a small few.

I'm afraid after that its not good out to 36hrs for the east and southeast but as i have said anything after 12hrs is FI.

From experience and level-headedness over at the IWN we never expected snowmeggeddon to occur while all others imploded.

We'd love to proved wrong.

T9

premiercad

maquiladora

This is the view to keep an eye on...

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=scan&sat=ir&type=loop