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Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

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    #422
    Not
    Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    th3 s1aught3r wrote: »
    Seriously though, even if they are bad what does that mean really?
    Yesterday afternoon they were predicting snowmageddon

    IIRC yesterdays 0Z and 6Z were considered cack as they didn't have enough human input into them, and then the 12Z was considered more reliable. So it might be the 12Z today upgrades significantly over the 6Z for that reason.


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    #423
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Not wrote: »
    IIRC yesterdays 0Z and 6Z were considered cack as they didn't have enough human input into them, and then the 12Z was considered more reliable. So it might be the 12Z today upgrades significantly over the 6Z for that reason.

    It is a possibility alright. I reckon snowfall has affected more of the country than was forecasted yesterday thus far.

    We've only got a half hour to wait :D


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    #424
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    That Hirlam chart is out of date now really, will upadte around 5pm I think


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    #425
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,993 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    ciaranm wrote: »
    Where is DOCARCH?

    He'd normally be all over something like this.

    I'm here! :)

    Looks like the trough/line is showing up now on radar as a more organised band of snow - hopefully it travels!


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    #426
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Out to 48 hours, slight upgrade for the west on the 12Z NAE. No upgrade for anywhere else. Very little snow in the eastern half of the country over the next 48 hours on this run...

    10121906_1712.gif


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    #427
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Out to 48 hours, slight upgrade for the west on the 12Z NAE. No upgrade for anywhere else. Very little snow in the eastern half of the country over the next 48 hours on this run...

    Theres not a hope in hell thats correct. Belfast been taking a belting all day, and judging by the radar will keep going for the next 24 hours or so. Far far more than 1mm snow to fall for sure


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    #428
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Theres not a hope in hell thats correct. Belfast been taking a belting all day, and judging by the radar will keep going for the next 24 hours or so. Far far more than 1mm snow to fall for sure

    Don't shoot the messenger! :pac:


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    #429
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Don't shoot the messenger! :pac:

    What's your personal opinion then? ;)


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    #430
    Spindle
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Spindle


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Don't shoot the messenger! :pac:


    Surely at this stage the models are no better than toilet roll at predicting what will happen.


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    #431
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    What's your personal opinion then? ;)

    You'd be better off watching sat24.com ;)

    But this is the model output thread and I guess people want to know what the models are showing, plus the NAE is well regarded as one of the best models in the short term when it comes to precip.

    I agree though, the totals for the north of the country especially seem ridiculous.


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    #432
    Elmo5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    so far 12Z GFS showing slight upgrade for tonight on the east coast....


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    #433
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Elmo5 wrote: »
    so far 12Z GFS showing slight upgrade for tonight on the east coast....

    Yep, low has west-shifted a tiny bit. A dusting could be on the cards.


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    #434
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Elmo5 wrote: »
    so far 12Z GFS showing slight upgrade for tonight on the east coast....

    I'm not trusting any models for the next 24 hours to be honest.

    It's completely ridiculous. It's showing for little snowfall in N. Ireland (how?), that theres been no snowfall in the midlands and south coast, despite reports from numerous counties in the Midlands and down around the Cork city area.

    My advice to anyone wondering if theres snow in your area, stick to the live rainfall radars, the satellite images and your lamp post outside. Predictive models have been as much help as a chocolate knife carving through hot butter.


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    #435
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yeah, upgrade for precip on the 12Z GFS at T12.

    gfs-2-12.png?12


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    #436
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,846 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Theres not a hope in hell thats correct. Belfast been taking a belting all day, and judging by the radar will keep going for the next 24 hours or so. Far far more than 1mm snow to fall for sure

    not just Belfast!!


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    #437
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Yeah, upgrade for precip on the 12Z GFS at T12.

    gfs-2-12.png?12

    Can i ask what the blue area around munster means? (with the white lines?)

    Thanks:)


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    #438
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,840 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Predictive models have been as much help as a chocolate knife carving through hot butter.

    MMM, Hot Chocolate Butter :)


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    #439
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Whats happened today that people are talking about a dusting for the east, m.t. Was predicting heavy snow tonight and tomorrow. . . ?


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    #440
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    Can i ask what the blue area around munster means? (with the white lines?)

    Thanks:)

    Risk of light snow.


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    #441
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    prectypeuktopo.png


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    #442
    kegg
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭kegg


    That looks tasty!! Btw, how do ya put up a "thanks" ?


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    #443
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Rougies


    kegg wrote: »
    That looks tasty!! Btw, how do ya put up a "thanks" ?

    you need to have 10 posts first, then you'll see a little thumbs up icon on the right of each post ;)


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    #444
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    kegg wrote: »
    That looks tasty!! Btw, how do ya put up a "thanks" ?
    After 10 posts you click on the thumbs up that will appear


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    #445
    kegg
    Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭kegg


    THANKS! :o


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    #446
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    kegg wrote: »
    That looks tasty!! Btw, how do ya put up a "thanks" ?
    It's only light snow-look at the guage at the side for the colours.
    It also won't happen as gfs has been cack lately...different forecast with every run it does remember?


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    #447
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,840 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    kegg wrote: »
    That looks tasty!! Btw, how do ya put up a "thanks" ?

    You have to wait till you have 10 posts, then you'll get a little 'thumbs up' symbol in the right bottom corner


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    #448
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    At 42 hours the low is weaker and further south than on the 06Z GFS.

    Will change again on the 18Z of course, but thats what the 12Z shows there.


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    #449
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Whats happened today that people are talking about a dusting for the east, m.t. Was predicting heavy snow tonight and tomorrow. . . ?

    It will be very interesting to see if MT downgrades his predictions from this mornings update. For example 45cm for inland south east over the time period he stated. Looks a bit like FI now. Hope he is going to be right but i'm wondering if any snow will fall at all here in south east regions.:confused:


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    #450
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Will change again on the 18Z of course, but thats what the 12Z shows there.
    Fixed your post


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    #451
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    maquiladora wrote: »
    At 42 hours the low is weaker and further south than on the 06Z GFS.

    Will change again on the 18Z of course, but thats what the 12Z shows there.

    But it looks a lot better for the south and south east for Sunday by the looks of it, but as you said it will change again


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