Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

th3 s1aught3r

Musicman2000 wrote: »

But it looks a lot better for the south and south east for Sunday by the looks of it, but as you said it will change again

What time can we look forward to seeing the 18z at ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

What time can we look forward to seeing the 18z at ?

Starting at 9.30

WolfeIRE

MT on The Last Word at 5pm everyone

Rougies

WolfeIRE wrote: »

MT on The Last Word at 5pm everyone

What station is that on?

sillybird

Rougies wrote: »

What station is that on?

Today FM

mickger844posts

mickger844posts wrote: »

It will be very interesting to see if MT downgrades his predictions from this mornings update. For example 45cm for inland south east over the time period he stated. Looks a bit like FI now. Hope he is going to be right but i'm wondering if any snow will fall at all here in south east regions.

I'd imagine Mt will be of the view that the models are performing badly and as he had used some blend of them to get those totals,then thats why it was wrong.
Models have underplayed the snow up north by a big margin.

cherryghost

WolfeIRE wrote: »

MT on The Last Word at 5pm everyone

Finished work at 5pm, might hang on to hear the wise words :P

mickger844posts

WolfeIRE wrote: »

MT on The Last Word at 5pm everyone

Hope he pops in here first with an update. I know Weathercheck had a few questions for him earlier

Sheba891

Today FM 100-101

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

MT on The Last Word at 5pm everyone

Excelent...
Will he be introduced as the irish weatheronline forecaster or boards

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

Excelent...
Will he be introduced as the irish weatheronline forecaster or boards

boards.ie weather forum was in irish times on saturday. it's on their website still.

darkman2

The forcast this evening is pretty much as it is stated on Met.ie. The problem is the polar vortex is so close that it's distorting every forcast because of the shifts in pressure pattern around the center on the LP meaning there is great variabilty in wind direction forcasts. And this is important this time of year because there is little or no inland convection. The sun is not powerful enough and so showers die pretty quickly once making landfall. It is difficult to nail precipitation. But id be confident of snow in the East this evening but probrably not as disruptive as was previously thought.


As for the medium term - there is no real end in sight. For the next week remaining extremely cold with the snow risk in the South and East mostly (but not exclusively).

snowjon

:eek::eek::eek::eek:
VERY rare RED WARNING for Northern Ireland on the Met Office site:

Further very heavy snow is likely giving additional accumulations of 10-20 cm in many places.

Widespread disruption of transport networks is likely and only essential travel should be undertaken.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1533 Fri 17 Dec
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

cherryghost

snowjon wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek:
VERY rare RED WARNING for Northern Ireland on the Met Office site:

Further very heavy snow is likely giving additional accumulations of 10-20 cm in many places.

Widespread disruption of transport networks is likely and only essential travel should be undertaken.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1533 Fri 17 Dec
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

Nah, GFS only has 1mm snowfall, pay no heed :pac:

snowjon

cherryghost wrote: »

Nah, GFS only has 1mm snowfall, pay no heed :pac:

Heehee - Heavy snow falling here already - this is crazy :eek:

opr

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well maybe?

Next few hours shall be very interesting, we will know more soon.

Maybe an eye now beginning to form ?



Opr

premiercad

12z just showing this great fight between adlantic and artic air and we are bang in the middle...!

munsterlegend

opr wrote: »

Maybe an eye now beginning to form ?



Opr

is that travelling south east?

munsterlegend

premiercad wrote: »

12z just showing this great fight between adlantic and artic air and we are bang in the middle...!

when does this duel commence?

dacogawa

cherryghost wrote: »

Nah, GFS only has 1mm snowfall, pay no heed :pac:

was going to say the very same thing! they might have changed it to feet ?

Musicman2000

Just looking at the 12z update there is a lot of prec over the south and east of the country from early sunday morning into monday, I know this will change but looks intertesting

opr

munsterlegend wrote: »

is that travelling south east?

Yup, Weathercheck has an arrow on his chart above showing the direction it would be most likely to take.

Opr

Mac daddy

The mother is coming over from the UK tomorrow and flying back on wednesday what do you reckon the weather will be like on wednesday?
dublin area btw

Not

precip begining to show up in Meath and Dublin according to the ME radar.

nacho libre

snowjon wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek:
VERY rare RED WARNING for Northern Ireland on the Met Office site:

Further very heavy snow is likely giving additional accumulations of 10-20 cm in many places.

Widespread disruption of transport networks is likely and only essential travel should be undertaken.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com (operational hours 07.00 to 21.00 Mon to Fri and 09:00 to17:00 on Saturdays) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1533 Fri 17 Dec
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

could you send some of that further south. i've gotten very greedy now:p

ch750536

Allegedly some forecaster said 'it wont be as bad as it was 2 weeks ago'. Several people have told me this today. I point out the window - 'Can you see snow, cus we didnt have any 2 weeks ago here. So it is already worse than it was 2 weeks ago, for us.'

Damn silly dublin forecast for the whole country syndrome methinks.

maquiladora

ch750536 wrote: »

Allegedly some forecaster said 'it wont be as bad as it was 2 weeks ago'.

I believe that was a quote from Joan Blackburn. I'm pretty sure that a day or two later she said it could be worse than the past cold spell.

Nobody really knows for sure.

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

I believe that was a quote from Joan Blackburn. I'm pretty sure that a day or two later she said it could be worse than the past cold spell.

Nobody really knows for sure.

i think if you ask people in the north, they would say it's as bad, if not worse, than the last spell, from their perspective. if your criteria is the totals that fell in parts of east and south east during the last spell then techincally it's not as bad, but for anyone who didn't get as much snow from the last cold period it is worse.

WallyGUFC

ch750536 wrote: »

Allegedly some forecaster said 'it wont be as bad as it was 2 weeks ago'. Several people have told me this today. I point out the window - 'Can you see snow, cus we didnt have any 2 weeks ago here. So it is already worse than it was 2 weeks ago, for us.'

Damn silly dublin forecast for the whole country syndrome methinks.

Exactly. This cold snap is nowhere near as bad as the last 1, sure there no snow in Dublin don't ya know...:rolleyes:

Hate the way they just ALWAYS give it from a Dublin perspective.

Villain

ch750536 wrote: »

Allegedly some forecaster said 'it wont be as bad as it was 2 weeks ago'. Several people have told me this today. I point out the window - 'Can you see snow, cus we didnt have any 2 weeks ago here. So it is already worse than it was 2 weeks ago, for us.'

Damn silly dublin forecast for the whole country syndrome methinks.

To be fair I think they mean overall the amount of snow won't be as bad, they could be wrong but I'd be surprised if anywhere in the Republic sees as much snow as we had 2 weeks ago. We had 18 inches of Snow.

So yes certainly an awful lot of the West and North will have worse than "THEY" had 2 weeks ago but overall worse than anywhere had I doubt it