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Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

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    #512
    opr
    Registered Users Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Why was the post about N.Ireland removed ?

    Opr


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    #513
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Hes a climatologist... :rolleyes:

    Alright, fair enough. What's everyone else then?
    I guess what I'm asking is, is M.T.'s opinion more valid that everyone elses?

    Oh forget it, I can see I am ruffling feathers. If even just my own.


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    #514
    ardmacha
    Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Why was the post about N.Ireland removed ?

    Having posted it , I moved it to the other thread, as it is not really about model output.


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    #515
    bkelly86
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭bkelly86


    How accurate are the predictive sequences on the raintoday website?


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    #516
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    bkelly86 wrote: »
    How acurate are the predictive sequences on the raintoday website?

    unless you have a login, they're not predictive at all


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    #517
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    seems the north has a bad situation hi


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    #518
    bkelly86
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭bkelly86


    ciaranm wrote: »
    unless you have a login, they're not predictive at all
    I signed up to the premium for a look, going by the forecast on there alot more snow seems to be pushing south-east.


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    #519
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    bkelly86 wrote: »
    I signed up to the premium for a look, going by the forecast on there alot more snow seems to be pushing south-east.

    Oh, cool. Fair play to you.

    Not sure how cool it is to be posting screenshots of their content, but I wouldn't mind a look.


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    #520
    ciaranm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 289 ✭✭ciaranm


    Is raintoday predicting it all coming in from the north-west?


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    #521
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Screen shot prediction anyone? or is that a breach of copyright . . .???


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    #522
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    I'm getting beers in preparation for the 18z, it's bound to look epic after them !


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    #523
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,840 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Screen shot prediction anyone? or is that a breach of copyright . . .???

    Well people have been putting them up here for the last few weeks


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    #524
    bkelly86
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭bkelly86


    here's the prediction for 21:00, its all pushing in from the north-west on the predictive sequence.


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    #525
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    bkelly86 wrote: »
    How accurate are the predictive sequences on the raintoday website?
    good for direction of precip but they do not factor in the weakening of precip as you forward on after actual readings


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    #526
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    bkelly86 wrote: »
    here's the prediction for 21:00, its all pushing in from the north-west on the predictive sequence.
    that is incorrect. all the premium version is doing is showing you what was over another part of the country at 6.30pm. While the path of the precip is correct the intensity shown there is not


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    #527
    bkelly86
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭bkelly86


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    good for direction of precip but they do not factor in the weakening of precip as you forward on after actual readings

    Yeah i was thinking myself all showers were holding up well to make it that far inland.


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    #528
    bkelly86
    Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭bkelly86


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    that is incorrect. all the premium version is doing is showing you what was over another part of the country at 6.30pm. While the path of the precip is correct the intensity shown there is not

    Do you think there is much chance of anything coming from the north-west making it across the country?


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    #529
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    I'm still a bit puzzled as to why MT is saying that the South East will get the most snow over the next few days. The showers that the west and south west are getting at the moment don't seem strong enough to make it to the corner of the country. Met Eireann are saying very little about the south east as are the models. I suppose MT has his reasons why he is predicting this, but i'm wondering on what basis :confused:


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    #530
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    bkelly86 wrote: »
    Do you think there is much chance of anything coming from the north-west making it across the country?
    they are making their way across the country. Snow in various parts of the midlands as well as Kildare and Meath at present. SE will not see much from these showers though unless a more organised band of showers develops


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    #531
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    I'm still a bit puzzled as to why MT is saying that the South East will get the most snow over the next few days. The showers that the west and south west are getting at the moment don't seem strong enough to make it to the corner of the country. Met Eireann are saying very little about the south east as are the models. I suppose MT has his reasons why he is predicting this, but i'm wondering on what basis :confused:

    On the Hirlam model there is precp pushing in, sun


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    #532
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    very interesting little feature pushing towards SW
    http://www.sat24.com/gb


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    #533
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    On the Hirlam model there is precp pushing in, sun

    Looking at the RTE forecast there now its more clear to me how the south east and east might get some snow over the weekend. The winds are changing to a more east and North East direction from tomorrow and basically this is the only way for us in the south east to get anything thats resembles heavy snow.


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    #534
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,516 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sorry, I've been lurking, reading, checking model runs, trying to stay awake, and wondering about that offer I heard on the radio while waiting for my one minute interview, something about a car I could have from Germany for only a million euros. Sounds good, I may get a picture of it first though.

    Anyway, I was stressing southeast Ireland on the radio and have been in my forecasts from tomorrow on, and I think we can look back at previous forecasts to establish that today's snow in north and west has been well predicted. Even there, reports on this forum tend to range from 3 cms to 20 or more cms in Connacht which shows that any given regional forecast number is an average which your local situation may exceed or fall short.

    I will be updating the forecast soon, after reviewing all the model runs and trying to make sense of what's currently unfolding. I think that the models are having more trouble than is worth describing here but I do feel that you can get a sense of the overall evolution and then decide from there what details are most likely to verify. Otherwise, I am stuck saying it's going to be cold and there could be snow if snow develops sort of a thing, which I think would be a waste of the reader's time since that is already obvious to anyone who is already interested in the weather.

    Looks to me at present that the feature moving south into Ulster is the reflection of the polar vortex and should move generally SSE then SE next 12 to 18 hours. This should bring in a period of accumulating snow to the east and southeast. Will be somewhat conservative on the update for amounts with this (in those regions). The activity still moving in from the west may become steady-state, weaken a bit, then redevelop tomorrow as the PV arrives and begins to split in terms of upper and surface features.

    From that point on, it's mainly a question of how strong the almost daily cycle of low pressure formation to the southwest tracking around south of Ireland will prove to be -- here's where the models are having all sorts of trouble. Some models look fairly robust on this energy and this is why I mentioned the potential for 10-15 cm snowfalls but as that radio interview was so shortened, I wasn't able to chat about details and would have said these are totals for different events that might peak in different places, also the snow will tend to be low-density and easy to compact, so even where some place sees several falls, the cumulative effect will be less than just adding the daily amounts, it will settle and the further snowfalls would weigh down the layers underneath. In that way, you could theoretically see 10 cms a day for three days but only have 12-15 cms at the end of the three days.

    I'm sure that's more than enough for most people, and clearly this is all somewhat speculative, however, I have to say that I see a spectrum of possibilities that also includes an all-out major snowstorm, sooner or later with a frontal boundary like this established near 48-50 deg N, that New Years 1979 setup could show up in the mix. I saw some potential for a storm of that intensity during this 3-5 day period and if not, the current model runs are also suggesting potential for a major storm around 25-27 Dec now. As I thought, the GFS has totally abandoned the milder track for the weekend and kept the weekend lows in the Channel.

    Okay, heading over to update the forecast after one last look at radar. Enjoy what you get, as JB says (we chatted once in 1979, a frightening experience for both of us, I think). :cool:


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    #535
    th3 s1aught3r
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭th3 s1aught3r


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Looking at the RTE forecast there now its more clear to me how the south east and east might get some snow over the weekend. The winds are changing to a more east and North East direction from tomorrow and basically this is the only way for us in the south east to get anything thats resembles heavy snow.

    It really seems to depend on the wind directions. The winds look to be coming more from the east Sunday and Monday, driving the snow over the east and south.


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    #536
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Latest ECM keeps it cold all the way out http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0


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    #537
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 911 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    very interesting little feature pushing towards SW
    http://www.sat24.com/gb

    Is it this one Wolfe? If so will miss the Sw?


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    #538
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Anyone care to give a brief run down of the forecast? Missed it after the news


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    #539
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Harps wrote: »
    Anyone care to give a brief run down of the forecast? Missed it after the news

    Same thing really, snow could fall anywhere, the location of the LP,s is causing them trouble


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    #540
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,846 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »

    I'm sure that's more than enough for most people, and clearly this is all somewhat speculative, however, I have to say that I see a spectrum of possibilities that also includes an all-out major snowstorm, sooner or later with a frontal boundary like this established near 48-50 deg N, that New Years 1979 setup could show up in the mix. I saw some potential for a storm of that intensity during this 3-5 day period and if not, the current model runs are also suggesting potential for a major storm around 25-27 Dec now. As I thought, the GFS has totally abandoned the milder track for the weekend and kept the weekend lows in the Channel.
    :

    it would be absolutely incredible if a snowstorm were to happen. just a quick question M.T. how many snowdances would one have to do to make it happen? :pac:


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    #541
    snow ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Channel 4 news had a good lead story on the snow in Britain and the North, they said the UK met Office think it will be the coldest December ever in Britain if the second half of the month remains cold.

    The presenter had a great dig at London, saying how over excited they'll get if they have two snowflakes. Seems the media being Capital City-centric is common in many places.


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