Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

ciaranm

nacho libre wrote: »

it would be absolutely incredible if a snowstorm were to happen. just a quick question M.T. how many snowdances would one have to do to make it happen? :pac:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_storm

Scroll down to 'Snow Storms'..

Dublin gets a surprise mention.

Trotter

Does MTs latest forecast seem to be a downgrade for Waterford City particularly? I'm still on baby delivery watch. I wonder should I call her 'Cranium'.... The missis mightn't go for it.

aurora 527

What are the latest charts showing... anyone?

snow ghost

Trotter wrote: »

Does MTs latest forecast seem to be a downgrade for Waterford City particularly? I'm still on baby delivery watch. I wonder should I call her 'Cranium'.... The missis mightn't go for it.

'Cranium Trotter' has a nice ring to it.

M.T. Cranium

Nacho libre, you've already had a snowstorm so you must know the right moves.

Yes, I would say downgrade of forecast for southeast but not to the extent of saying no significant snowfalls, just removing the heaviest amounts from the table, would still be quite significant at even 5-10 cms a day.

Situation is clearly "fluid" and any snow that does occur can quickly become heavy as we've seen in the north and northwest. One factor is that this snow has low water ratios, meaning you get roughly twice the snow depth for the amount of available moisture, compared to average for snow. It's a fairly light, powdery snow that's being reported. Will settle to more compact depths in some places after a few hours.

By the way, let me know if you measure any snow to water ratios at your own locations. I would find it helpful, just to explain what I mean here, normally 10 cms of snow would melt down to 10 mms if you had a rain gauge, took the snow inside and let it melt. That would be the average. This kind of snow might melt down to only 5 mms of liquid. So it has a 20:1 ratio instead of 10:1 as perhaps last time with the streamers. On the other hand, a heavy wet snowfall that you sometimes get, might leave 15 mms for the 10 cms of snow. That would be more like a 7:1 ratio. We get those here sometimes and they are killers to shovel. The dry stuff you can sweep away sometimes. Those heavy lake effect storms are often 20:1 or higher ratios.

TheMilkyPirate

That system showing up on sat24 that has been moving into north kerry clare could give some decent falls, It's just showing up on radar now should have better idea on the next frame.

noah45

nacho libre whereabouts are you?

fizzycyst

The wind in Waterford city has changed from WNW to W in the last hour, I'm hoping this may mean that the system showing up on sat24.com will favor the southeast

noah45

Any of you know whats in store for Athlone tonight? Not sure whether we come in under connaccht or leinster since we are bang on the boarder

Hoping for lashings of snow.

What are predictictions?:)

WolfeIRE

baraca wrote: »

That system showing up on sat24 that has been moving into north kerry clare could give some decent falls, It's just showing up on radar now should have better idea on the next frame.

heading into south kerry and west cork i think baraca

delw

so has dublin dodged a bullit as regards to snowfall amount?

liamygunner29

I don't think they have it in them to make it Dublin with any great extent tonight, anyone disagree with me? Please do..We have the forecast in a bit and the 9 30 model will this tell us a lot?

th3 s1aught3r

The RTE/ME forecast suggests that East and South to see more snow early next week more so than the weekend, depending on the low pressure systems situation by then

200motels

I don't think we'll see any snow down here tonight, the sky is clear at the moment.

TheMilkyPirate

18z has south easterlys/easterlys developing around 9pm through to sunday, could be good for streamers on south/south east coasts

mickger844posts

200motels wrote: »

I don't think we'll see any snow down here tonight, the sky is clear at the moment.

Get a feeling we will see nothing until Monday after seeing that forecast on RTE. Maybe some streamer action when the wind changes to NE East.

fizzycyst

baraca wrote: »

18z has south easterlys/easterlys developing around 9pm through to sunday, could be good for streamers on south/south east coasts

we live in hope

mickger844posts

GFS 18z not looking good for us at all or most of the country in fact. GFS has been all over the place so i'm not paying much attention to what they say at this stage.

TheMilkyPirate

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 18z not looking good for us at all or most of the country in fact. GFS has been all over the place so i'm not paying much attention to what they say at this stage.

All i can see is easterlys, I'm pinning my hopes to that.

sean555

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 18z not looking good for us at all or most of the country in fact. GFS has been all over the place so i'm not paying much attention to what they say at this stage.

The pub run has been all over the place the last few days but then again all the models from Hirlam to NAE taking in all the various models are all struggling to get a handle on this. It must be the PV that is doing this usually by this stage they would have settled on some direction or other. So who knows whats going happen ?.

Musicman2000

sean555 wrote: »

The pub run has been all over the place the last few days but then again all the models from Hirlam to NAE taking in all the various models are all struggling to get a handle on this. It must be the PV that is doing this usually by this stage they would have settled on some direction or other. So who knows whats going happen ?.

Just looking at the BBC forecast not a single flake over the south east for the next few days, Really cant see where MT is getting the snow from, but Ill take his word anyday

DOCARCH

18z looking cold but pretty/very dry (for the east anyway).

Min

GFS 18z has lots of snow for Christmas day, lot and lots of snow but it is FI...then it's a bit Dan Foglebert as the snow turns into rain.

jprboy

Min wrote: »

GFS 18z has lots of snow for Christmas day, lot and lots of snow but it is FI...then it's a bit Dan Fogelberg as the snow turns into rain.

Free fix there for you, Min

muirsheen

fizzycyst wrote: »

we live in hope

Yes we do. nothing here in New Ross

darkman2

The weather looks like being dry mostly for the next 3 days. Always the risk of a shower on windward coasts and possibly a band of rain with snow on it's Northern edge on Sunday across Southern counties. Those who have snow on the ground now will have it for some time!

inabina

ok. everyone get RADIO 1 on now for the 23.55 forecast

TheMilkyPirate

I've given up on this cold spell for snow in my neck of the woods just seems to unlikely and i'd rather not know and get a ninja snowfall than to be let down so it's bye bye models till tuesday.

inabina

serious downgrade from Pat Clarke from ME at 23.55. pretty much a non event for the next few days. Apart from you guys in N and W.

nacho libre

inabina wrote: »

serious downgrade from Pat Clarke from ME at 23.55. pretty much a non event for the next few days. Apart from you guys in N and W.

i didn't hear the forecast. i take it he only meant coastal areas in the north and west.