Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

mickger844posts

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

It's heartbreaking TBH, two days ago we (Leinst inc.Dub) had 45cms on MT's snowchart. The only consolation is that it's still only Mid-Dec and we've got another two months of chart watching and radar refreshing to look forward to. It's probably not a bad thing this close to Christmas. I'd hate to see people not being able to get to their loved ones for the festive season - my heart goes out to all those people stuck at Heathrow and Gatwick this morning and I hope they get where they're going soon.

I had nightmares about those charts last night :eek: Thank god they are gone from MTs forecast today. I would take 5cm at this stage.

ninebeanrows

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

It's heartbreaking TBH, two days ago we (Leinst inc.Dub) had 45cms on MT's snowchart. The only consolation is that it's still only Mid-Dec and we've got another two months of chart watching and radar refreshing to look forward to. It's probably not a bad thing this close to Christmas. I'd hate to see people not being able to get to their loved ones for the festive season - my heart goes out to all those people stuck at Heathrow and Gatwick this morning and I hope they get where they're going soon.

Feck it, our time will come.

The issue with abroad who forecast for here don't understand the various intricacies and i am barely coming to terms with them, it takes years of watching to develop a foundation knowledge for an area.

And what we have learnt in the east is that easterly winds are the holy grail here, screw what the model say, one we see winds hit east were happy.

Lets hope the next few days and perhaps hours see the fruition of this.

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

Feck it, our time will come.

The issue with abroad who forecast for here don't understand the various intricacies and i am barely coming to terms with them, it takes years of watching to develop a foundation knowledge for an area.

And what we have learnt in the east is that easterly winds are the holy grail here, screw what the model say, one we see winds hit east were happy.

Lets hope the next few days and perhaps hours see the fruition of this.

If the winds become easterly does that mean it's over for cork or what's the story?

mickger844posts

Weathercheck wrote: »

Feck it, our time will come.

The issue with abroad who forecast for here don't understand the various intricacies and i am barely coming to terms with them, it takes years of watching to develop a foundation knowledge for an area.

And what we have learnt in the east is that easterly winds are the holy grail here, screw what the model say, one we see winds hit east were happy.

Lets hope the next few days and perhaps hours see the fruition of this.

In fairness to you Weathercheck when MT did come out with these totals you asked where he was getting them from so good call on that one.

LookingFor

The stuff in the Irish Sea, rotating 'backwards' towards us...it's just brushing the coast, not making landfall. So close! Maybe the next arm of it will be bigger and hit some places.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Feck it, our time will come.

The issue with abroad who forecast for here don't understand the various intricacies and i am barely coming to terms with them, it takes years of watching to develop a foundation knowledge for an area.

And what we have learnt in the east is that easterly winds are the holy grail here, screw what the model say, one we see winds hit east were happy.

Lets hope the next few days and perhaps hours see the fruition of this.

WC, would this be our chance ?



Feck it, this one looks better !

Scubadevils

At this stage I'll happily take what's been shown in terms of cold crisp and sunny weather in the run up to Christmas on the east coast - business can go on as normal in what is the most important time of year for retail and at least its not lashing rain... it will be damaging enough for the areas that have been hit in the last couple of days but to have the whole country grind to a halt would be quite tragic.

That said, I hope at about 7pm on Christmas eve the snow comes back with a vengeance :pac:

H2UMrsRobinson

Weathercheck wrote: »

Feck it, our time will come...

..And what we have learnt in the east is that easterly winds are the holy grail here, screw what the model say, one we see winds hit east were happy.

Amen to that, all the snow we had beg of Dec was from streamers - if we can get some of that going again I'd be a happy bunny.

There's kind of a whirlpool effect (just my opinion from looking at the raintoday radar) going on in the Irish sea ATM, just when you think it's heading for us it does a sneaky little left turn just before Howth. Fascinating and frustrating in equal measure. :mad:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Amen to that, all the snow we had last week was from streamers - if we can get some of that going again I'd be a happy bunny.

There's kind of a whirlpool effect (just my opinion from looking at the raintoday radar) going on in the Irish sea ATM, just when you think it's heading for us it does a sneaky little left turn just before Howth. Fascinating and frustrating in equal measure. :mad:

Hire a boat there, we are gonna tow the Isle of Man to just off Cork, revenge !

dav3

Looks like the wind will change to a more easterly this evening. The dew points are ok, the air temps seem borderline for coastal areas.

leahyl

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hire a boat there, we are gonna tow the Isle of Man to just off Cork, revenge !

Well we have snow....SO THERE!! In yo FACE!!:p

Tom Cruises Left Nut

leahyl wrote: »

Well we have snow....SO THERE!! In yo FACE!!:p

Hahaha, I'm off to Carrigaline for Christmas, I actually want snow in Cork then ! :pac:

leahyl

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hahaha, I'm off to Carrigaline for Christmas, I actually want snow in Cork then ! :pac:

Oh no sure everyone knows it never snows in carrigaline!:D

noah45

Lovely covering of snow in Athlone, but a sunnt day! Last snowfall was early last night.

Would like a little snow shower now for good measure.:)

Winterstale

mickger844posts wrote: »

In fairness to you Weathercheck when MT did come out with these totals you asked where he was getting them from so good call on that one.

I was thinking the same thing. WC was the only one to question the MT forecast snowfall amount.

thetonynator

Unfortunately it looks like i'm going to have to study for exams now . .last 24hrs would probably have been wiser spent doing just that anyway . . :P

dacogawa

In Sandymount & that cloud from the irish sea is moving in a bit, nearly above me

Nabber

Was in sandymount too. Winds are heading easterly. So they wont hit Dublin bay.

BEASTERLY

Does anybody know if the HIRLAM model is reliable?

It shows some coastal showers for the east tommorow and then some mammoth snow falls for the south-east on monday:D

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

hawkwing

Maybe something later for the eastsiders
Issued at 18 December 2010 - 11:31
Frosty and icy conditions countrywide.
Further heavy snow showers at times today, mainly in parts of Connaught, Donegal and west Munster. Some later on eastern coasts also.
Tonight some more prolonged snow expected in Munster and parts of west Connaught, which may well persist into tomorrow morning. Fresh falls 5 to 10cm.
Some heavy snow showers possible also in eastern coastal counties of Louth, Meath and Dublin.

leahyl

Lady from buffalo new York on rte radio talking about snow they get there - worst they ever got was 7 feet in 5 days!!!!!:eek: now I wouldn't want that!!

little bess

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Does anybody know if the HIRLAM model is reliable?

It shows some coastal showers for the east tommorow and then some mammoth snow falls for the south-east on monday:D

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Is that the low off the south coast that MT mentioned in his forecast ? Would be great if it developed like this

BEASTERLY

little bess wrote: »

Is that the low off the south coast that MT mentioned in his forecast ? Would be great if it developed like this

I believe it is the model Met Eireann use. This is exactly what M.T was talking about, watch out weathercheck.

force eleven

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I believe it is the model Met Eireann use. This is exactly what M.T was talking about, watch out weathercheck.

Looks like some heavy snow spreading up from the south on Monday as far north as north Leinster . One to watch.

Hirlam is operated by the ecmwf-it's a sort of high res ecm

th3 s1aught3r

I look out to blue skys this morning. Turn on the TV and other areas are getting hammered, especially in England, they be having some Snowmageddon....... gonna be dissappointed if we dont see some by xmas. However I am very optimisitc

Davaeo09

Hey folks i'm relatively new to this game, and I know this question must get tiresome, but can the Kilkenny/Tipp border areas expect any snow at all within the next 48 hours?

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

Hirlam is operated by the ecmwf-it's a sort of high res ecm

The HIRLAM programme is controlled by the HIRLAM Council. The boundary conditions are supplied by the ECMWF and as far as I know it is run on ECMWF computers - but the HIRLAM model itself is it's own model and seperate from the ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System model.

nacho libre

according to snow addict(where did that guy disappear to by the way) our own Jean Byrne helped develop the hirlam model.

thetonynator

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Hey folks i'm relatively new to this game, and I know this question must get tiresome, but can the Kilkenny/Tipp border areas expect any snow at all within the next 48 hours?

Yeah there should be decent falls of snow tomorrow and/or monday, round 5-10cm.



ECM has breakdown for christmas day:





:mad:

Not that thats reliable or anything . .:P


UKMO going with a similar line: