Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

WalterMitty

Noel2k9 wrote: »

Anyone know if Waterford's supposed to get any snow? I've an Economics exam Monday and am counting on it to snow.. >.>

i think the supply of snow wont meet your demand my friend.

dacogawa

Rougies wrote: »

I think there's something wrong with your eyes, it says -3.9

ERM, I think its your eyes! :P

inabina

WalterMitty wrote: »

Feck drink, its mice pies with cream and hot tea for me . Still christmassy here in North Dublin with sub zero temps and frost around.

I would not dismiss drink in such a way, mince pies and booze works. But I would agree that this weather is really Christmassy with hard frost, daytime minus 2.1, and the light dusting of snow from last night. it still allows people to get around, businesses can still operate. So bring on the booze!

A heavy snowfall would be nice tho.....

ccoyle

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yeah its been around -12 in Castlederg all day, was wondering was it a false reading or not :eek:

-10 in convoy all day about 12 miles north of castle derg

Grindylow

WalterMitty wrote: »

i think the supply of snow wont meet your demand my friend.

Damn

force eleven

WalterMitty wrote: »

Feck drink, its mice pies with cream and hot tea for me . Still christmassy here in North Dublin with sub zero temps and frost around.

I love mice pies, especially the crunchy tail bits....:D. Back OT looking like the Atlantic breaks through on Christmas day but I wouldn't bet on it given how things have gone lately with the models. FI is about 72 hours at present I reckon....

th3 s1aught3r

force eleven wrote: »

FI is about 72 hours at present I reckon....

Id say more like 24

Musicman2000

Noel2k9 wrote: »

Anyone know if Waterford's supposed to get any snow? I've an Economics exam Monday and am counting on it to snow.. >.>

possible chance, bit early to say yet, check back in here tommorow evening

hotwhiskey

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Id say more like 24

Even less in some cases!

NI weather yesterday morning gives us clear conditions for yesterday evening the forgot to mention the small matter of 15cm of snow by 9pm last night they only jumped in with a weather warning when they realized what was really happening.

Lucky for me MT had warned me two day's before.:p

Calibos

Are we now trusting the models now that they are saying nothing for the east coast? Or is there a chance the models could have it wrong again and something big will brew up for the east with little or short notice? ie. Is all hope lost for anything more than a dusting in the east over the next few days or could something literally appear out of nowhere?

hotwhiskey

Look like NAO is also trending more negative as we head towards New Year it isn't holding much hope for a milder trend.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I believe if the next two or three runs from the ECM is still leading towards milder for Christmas day it wouldn't be all over by any means has a frontal system would turn to snow as it moves across the country so people with snow now or get snow in the next few days or so will still have it on the 25th.

GavinH

The 12z showing snow upgrade for the east tomorrow morning see pic.

darkman2

Snow showers in the Irish sea are finally getting a baring on Eastern coastal counties. Due to the variable wind timing is difficult but I would not be supprised if some came ashore in Louth, Meath and Dublin in the next 2 hours.

isle of man

had up to 6in now,

looks like its about to stop, and no more prep in the air to make snow.

thomasj

isle of man wrote: »

had up to 6in now,

looks like its about to stop, and no more prep in the air to make snow.

Enjoy! It's that time of year!

Cionád

dacogawa wrote: »

ERM, I think its your eyes! :P

It's showing as -3.9c for me also.

Calibos

isle of man wrote: »

had up to 6in now,

looks like its about to stop, and no more prep in the air to make snow.

Must have been a sickner for those on the north of the island watching the precip rotate over the south of the island over and over again all morning.

Watching that swirl on rain today, its hard to get a bearing on the direction its starting to move because of the changing shape between radar refreshes. Sometimes it looks like its heading for Louth and other times it looks like its starting to head SW towards Dublin/N.Wicklow

Its frustrating seeing a -.7 temp and -3.2 DP going to waste

lucernarian

GavinH wrote: »

The 12z showing snow upgrade for the east tomorrow morning see pic.

Those charts are frankly useless. They only show whether any precipitation that falls will be of rain or snow. They do not show any snow intensity whatsoever. The same GFS model is showing trace amounts of precipitation along the east coast tomorrow morning. It's no upgrade.

Darkman2, there will be no significant snow showers in Dublin or Louth this evening. They will barely reach the cost if at all. The satellite imagery clearly shows a stiff westerly breeze the further south one goes down the coast. At its very best, I imagine the Cooley penninsula may see a bit of snow and Clogherhead to see a few flurries. The NAE and 3 hour MetÉ model upports this also.

darkman2

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Darkman2, there will be no significant snow showers in Dublin or Louth this evening.

I never said there would be "significant" snow in Dublin - when did I say that? My forcast is light or moderate snow and hail showers in (coastal) Meath and Dublin and heavy snow showers in Louth. Further South later in the night light or moderate showers affecting coastal Wicklow and Wexford. That's what I have said all day. And that is most likely to happen.


Im not saying the NAE model is wrong but we are dealing with mesoscale features and so some intuition has to be used.

Scubadevils

Don't know if the ME forecast was looked at by many today but certainly puts a big question mark over Christmas still in terms of a mild breakdown....

The outlook up to and including Christmas Eve ( Friday) : Very cold Sunday night with widespread severe frost, ice and with compacted snow in places. Some falls of snow over parts of Munster, with a few snow showers on parts of the east coast, but largely dry elsewhere with some pockets of freezing fog developing. Lows - 3 to -8 C., but much colder over the snow fields. The bitterly cold conditions will persist for the week and there are no signs of any mild weather. It will be frosty and icy at night, with some freezing fog in places. The frost and ice will persist in places by day, with only minor thaws, despite some sunshine most days and the fog may linger too. Temperatures by day will only get above freezing in some coastal margins, with values probably below zero generally. Values at night will remain very low, and will be -10 C., or lower over the snow fields. In fact, we are probably heading for the coldest December on record in many parts of the country. The distribution of new falls of snow will be more problematical. Present indications suggest that there will be some snow over Munster later Sunday night, on Monday and maybe early Tuesday, heavy in places. Some snow too on Monday over much of Leinster. Some sleet and snow showers at times over parts of Leinster on Tuesday and Wednesday and over parts of Ulster and parts of Connacht on Wednesday also. Other areas should just see a few flurries and much of Thursday and Christmas Eve (Friday) look like being mostly dry. Still conflicting signals re the weather over the Christmas Weekend. It is not certain whether the cold weather will hang on, or whether mild Atlantic weather will break through. It is an evolving situation, especially re snow. Warnings and detailed forecasts of expected snow will issue each day, as new data becomes available.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Those charts are frankly useless. They only show whether any precipitation that falls will be of rain or snow. They do not show any snow intensity whatsoever. The same GFS model is showing trace amounts of precipitation along the east coast tomorrow morning. It's no upgrade.

Darkman2, there will be no significant snow showers in Dublin or Louth this evening. They will barely reach the cost if at all. The satellite imagery clearly shows a stiff westerly breeze the further south one goes down the coast. At its very best, I imagine the Cooley penninsula may see a bit of snow and Clogherhead to see a few flurries. The NAE and 3 hour MetÉ model upports this also.

I don't know, think we might be pleasently surprised later this evening, the land westerly should slowly shift.

opr

Looking really good for Louth.



Opr

th3 s1aught3r

opr wrote: »

Looking really good for Louth.



Opr

Any chance of the showers over the Irish sea coming over eastern areas ?

lucernarian

darkman2 wrote: »

I never said there would be "significant" snow in Dublin - when did I say that? My forcast is light or moderate snow and hail showers in (coastal) Meath and Dublin and heavy snow showers in Louth. Further South later in the night light or moderate showers affecting coastal Wicklow and Wexford. That's what I have said all day. And that is most likely to happen.


Im not saying the NAE model is wrong but we are dealing with mesoscale features and so some intuition has to be used.

Indeed, you never mentioned significant snow. I was just pointing it out. And I'll add that I mean "significant" as more than 3cm. I highly doubt that there will be any snow showers whatsoever in coastal Dublin city, unlikely along the Co. Dublin coast in general and I do not expect any heavy snow showers in Co. Louth outside of the Cooley Penninsula and the coastal fringes of the county at any stage this evening. I'm basing that primarily on satellite coverage and the short term models.

opr

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Any chance of the showers over the Irish sea coming over eastern areas ?

Its a complete wait and see in terms of when the wind changes how if at all it will stir things up. I think what Darkman posted above in his reply to "To_be_confirmed" is what looks most likely at the moment from my limited understanding.

Opr

dav3

Once the winds change to an easterly it's all eyes to the radar for the east coast. We're not there yet. It looks like it might even remain that way until early Tuesday morning. There is definitely activity in the Irish sea. All aboard the streamer train.

dacogawa

Has anyone noticed how much the IOM shower has moved east if the last 2 hours ?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

peasant

Looks like the main feature for the next days (away from the coasts) is going to be the very low temps.

Around or below -10 during the night and always below freezing all day for several days in a row for pretty much all of the country.

jaffa20

Met.ie have updated their forecast again for snow in the east

18 December 2010 16:14

Today Tonight will be mostly dry in many places, but snow is expected in parts of Munster and Connaught, as well as the northeast. The lowest temperatures will be between -4 to -10 degrees with widespread severe frost, icy roads and patches of freezing fog.

mickger844posts

Just saw the BBC forecast, they are on board for the band of snow to hit the south coast and south east from around 6am Monday morning and to give a prolonged fall of snow.