Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

mickger844posts

Deleted User wrote: »

Why are you bothering and fretting with a chart for 6 days away when charts for 3 days away are not verifying?

If 3 day charts aren't verifying,theres no way in hell that 6 or 7 day ones will...
Waste of time.

I'm not fretting about a chart for 6 days away, i'm just putting it up there as an indication of what ECM are predicting and what MT is eluding to in his forecast. I know the charts are all over the place as are the forecasts

roryc1

Good morning all from a snowy south Dublin well 1cm of snowiness (I will take what I can)
GFS rolling now not looking great for us, looks like south England getting all the fun, but I live in hope

t|nt|n

t|nt|n wrote: »

Someone has "lack of snow anger" !! :pac:

Not really...still have the old snow from nearly a month ago here covering fields.
Thats a serious wow.
Besides,snow will come to Eastern areas again eventually [it did to some last night but not here] -look at the dewpoints with a strong east wind today.
Also did you know that wind is now blowing over a snowy frozen England and wales at surface level with serious sub zero dewpoints too before it gets to us.
If you ask me,is that not a serious snow maker?
Did you know also that very cold surface air like that means you can let 850 mb temps rise to -3c and stil get heavy snow which is important in a battle ground situation.

Thirdly theres great uncertainty at the moment and do you what that means...anything can crop up at short notice.

roryc1

Well looking at http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast the winds are to stay east-northeast for most of the week and that is what gave the east all its fun a few weeks ago

mickger844posts

mickger844posts wrote: »

I'm not fretting about a chart for 6 days away, i'm just putting it up there as an indication of what ECM are predicting and what MT is eluding to in his forecast. I know the charts are all over the place as are the forecasts

I have great respect for Mt but he has made what I've said very clear ,that because he has to use some model guidance ,everything is subject to change.
Both he and darkman and currently the live forecasters at the ukmo [as opposed to the computer] do not see an end to this.

Glasnevins priority seems to be to report every chink of mild light that appears in the ecm and say its a hint of mild coming back in their forecasts.
They do that because they think [and for the majority they'd be right] that thats what people want.
"present indications suggest" as you know is one of their oft used phrases.
Anytime they've used it,the info has not verified [yet].

laurence997

Thanks for the answer to my question lads. So due to clare being shielded from the showers by galway and kerry, I wont get snow? Only about 2cm fell here:(

aurora 527

mickger844posts wrote: »

I'm not fretting about a chart for 6 days away, i'm just putting it up there as an indication of what ECM are predicting and what MT is eluding to in his forecast. I know the charts are all over the place as are the forecasts

I understand what you are saying..

DOCARCH

Now visible sat is coming on stream you can see clouds developing south of the IOM. http://www.sat24.com/gb


Hopefully a few light snow showers/flurries here later (to add to my 1cm of snow overnight).

-2.1c here atm.

roryc1

DOCARCH wrote: »

Now visible sat is coming on stream you can see clouds developing south of the IOM. http://www.sat24.com/gb


Hopefully a few light snow showers/flurries here later (to add to my 1cm of snow overnight).

-2.1c here atm.

Put down them straws

M.T. Cranium

06z GFS just noticed the block again, no mild incursion on 25th, or 26th so far. System slides under and heads for southern France.

Just to that point, more in a minute. (not that we can trust it, but given the mild ramping tendency of the GFS, this may mean locked in cold).

typhooner

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

06z GFS just noticed the block again, no mild incursion on 25th, or 26th so far. System slides under and heads for southern France.

Just to that point, more in a minute. (not that we can trust it, but given the mild ramping tendency of the GFS, this may mean locked in cold).

impressive to see the block hold back the low out in the atlantic and keep us in an easterly flow all the way through the christmas period, the east may just see a white christmas

TheMilkyPirate

GFS showing cold right out till the end of it's run.

Easterly regime set up for the next week or so could be good for the east.

lucy2010

baraca wrote: »

GFS showing cold right out till the end of it's run.

Easterly regime set up for the next week or so could be good for the east.

there is nothing showing up on raintoday - but some mighty snow filled clouds coming in over the sea now

lucy2010

lucy2010 wrote: »

there is nothing showing up on raintoday - but some mighty snow filled clouds coming in over the sea now

We had a snow shower albeit very light from puffy dark grey clouds that rolled in off the sea south of arklow about a half hour ago.
That means already some weak convection is building but it is taking the whole of the sea track for it to happen as they are appearing just before land fall.
They're too light at the moment for the radar.
Maybe a few heavier later but a strong NE if it happens [it's a maybe as even if models show it sub 24,it's far from guaranteed with their poor accuracy at the moment]

I see some people are blindly following models still.
I'm hoping it's not blindly and it is just looking for a trend they are.
We used look for a trend sub 120hrs on these things but now it's a trend and a verification we want to be see'ing regularally at sub 48hrs and we're not getting it.
Hence intuition and now casting is king for the moment.

The models are some help at identifying bigger features but no help as to where they go.Thats where the intuition comes in aswell-to guess from experience where they will go and the impact.

Calibos

A lot of withdrawal symptoms and depression coming from we east coasters. We have to remind ourselves it's only December!! At least 2 months potential to go.

homolumo

The UK took our snow yesterday now the French have taken today's.:(

joes girls

Starting to get very cloudy here now, the Cork snow has gave me hope:)

derekon

DOCARCH wrote: »

Now visible sat is coming on stream you can see clouds developing south of the IOM. http://www.sat24.com/gb


Hopefully a few light snow showers/flurries here later (to add to my 1cm of snow overnight).

-2.1c here atm.

You can see the clouds alright but there is no precipitation in them! :eek:

Check out the following link. No streamers at all in the Irish Sea at the moment. What I cannot understand is that the North East of England is getting plastered by the Easterly wind. Why is the east of Ireland not?

www.raintoday.co.uk

lucernarian

A word of caution: if the models suggest that there is going to be precipitation or lack thereof in various places, intuition and forecaster experience does not necessarily mean that model guidance should ignored on a mesoscale level. I found it quite helpful yesterday in combination with satellite coverage to forecast what happened on the north leinster coast yesterday evening and night.

Black Briar is right to point out the risk and it's true that the models don't pick up on precipitation in an easterly airflow very well. It's also true to say that many of the trends the models have picked up at short term, say within 24 hours, are generally verifying. I don't think they should be completely binned yet:)

derekon

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

A word of caution: if the models suggest that there is going to be precipitation or lack thereof in various places, intuition and forecaster experience does not necessarily mean that model guidance should ignored on a mesoscale level. I found it quite helpful yesterday in combination with satellite coverage to forecast what happened on the north leinster coast yesterday evening and night.

Black Briar is right to point out the risk and it's true that the models don't pick up on precipitation in an easterly airflow very well. It's also true to say that many of the trends the models have picked up at short term, say within 24 hours, are generally verifying. I don't think they should be completely binned yet:)

Thanks for clarifying darkman2.

On a separate thread you started in the wee hours of the morning, you indicated that the south and east will most likely see some significant snow over the coming days. On what basis do you make that conclusion?

I watched the BBC Countryfile weather for the week ahead at midday - its graphics showed barely anything for the east coast of Ireland right up to Christmas Eve (they went through each day's forecast for the whole week) :rolleyes:

Do we need stronger winds coming in from the East ?

Don't mind me - just sick of the brother in law texting me to confirm how much snow is up in Donegal at the moment when all we got here in Dublin was about 0.0001 mm

Esroh

Guys
Can any of you explain why for the last 24hours that there has been a streamer(think that what you call it) that starts over Cork city and extends south out of the radar range but never seems to move.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

It's also true to say that many of the trends the models have picked up at short term, say within 24 hours, are generally verifying. I don't think they should be completely binned yet:)

I think it's pure fluke to be honest.
Models yesterday had snow into wexford tonight.
Now they don't.
Thats a change within 24hrs.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

I have great respect for Mt but he has made what I've said very clear ,that because he has to use some model guidance ,everything is subject to change.
Both he and darkman and currently the live forecasters at the ukmo [as opposed to the computer] do not see an end to this.

Glasnevins priority seems to be to report every chink of mild light that appears in the ecm and say its a hint of mild coming back in their forecasts.
They do that because they think [and for the majority they'd be right] that thats what people want.
"present indications suggest" as you know is one of their oft used phrases.
Anytime they've used it,the info has not verified [yet].

I think you're right about Met Eireann. Of course it has to get milder at some stage, but they do seem to jump on any run that shows it getting milder despite the flip-flopping of the ecm. also it's worth bearing in mind the ukmo predicted the start of the first cold out break in November well before the ecm model did. so it's clear they don't just rely on the ecm to make their forecasts. I think if the ukmo suddenly start backing a breakdown then it's game over, at least for the time being, for those who want the cold to continue.

homolumo

Esroh wrote: »

Guys
Can any of you explain why for the last 24hours that there has been a streamer(think that what you call it) that starts over Cork city and extends south out of the radar range but never seems to move.

It might be something like this?:
taken from Met.ie

'On some images a linear feature may be seen extending from Limerick towards Waterford. This is due to interference from a WiFi system. Occasionally other similar features may be seen extending from Dublin towards the South-east. '

Musicman2000

nacho libre wrote: »

I think you're right about Met Eireann. Of course it has to get milder at some stage, but they do seem to jump on any run that shows it getting milder despite the flip-flopping of the ecm. also it's worth bearing in mind the ukmo predicted the start of the first cold out break in November well before the ecm model did. so it's clear they don't just rely on the ecm to make their forecasts. I think if the ukmo suddenly start backing a breakdown then it's game over, at least for the time being, for those who want the cold to continue.

And Joan from ME just on the news milder for xmas eve

Pangea

Joan Blackburn hasnt a clue. Enough said.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

I think you're right about Met Eireann. Of course it has to get milder at some stage, but they do seem to jump on any run that shows it getting milder despite the flip-flopping of the ecm. also it's worth bearing in mind the ukmo predicted the start of the first cold out break in November well before the ecm model did. so it's clear they don't just rely on the ecm to make their forecasts. I think if the ukmo suddenly start backing a breakdown then it's game over, at least for the time being, for those who want the cold to continue.

Betcha what ya like they will be running with the mild weather coming in on Xmas eve again in the farming forecast in a few moments based on the ecm fi
Joan Blackburn was just on the news saying this to the emergency task force...
Whilst country tracks was a disaster in terms of certainty,they didn't forecast a mild return anywhere on xmas eve.

I know who I trust in this...

Are met Eireann magicians now?
No mention of uncertainty at all in Gerry murphy's forecast there.
It was all we WILL see this and we WILL see that and We WILL have mild southerlies on Xmas eve...

Gosh we're fcuked.

Pangea

Christmas day forecast is nearly a carbon copy of last years, warm air pushing up, could turn to snow in places ,and there will be a thaw later, only thing is what really happened last year was I got 2 inches of snow on Christmas day and the thaw didnt come till around the 14th of January.

th3 s1aught3r

Looking good for Tuesday snow in east going by that RTE forecast
Yesterday they said most of the midweek would be dry
All over the shop
Who would be a weather forecaster