Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

pokerface_me

little bess wrote: »

Did you go to Holyhead ?If so were the trains running ok ? I've booked my kids to go over tmrw as flights were cancelled yesterday .

Sorry shouldn't be posting here ,model discuusion i know , thought I was in the other thread

Bit messy couple of transfers on trains but all in all ok considering, 65% of trains are running and main routes on trains are fine. I was due to fly but had to get home for work busiest time of the year. Your kids will be fine tell them to check with conductors on trains if unsure of anything.

Sierra Oscar

pokerface_me wrote: »

Have to completly disagree, ive travelled home from London today via rail and boat, was over for the Chelsea game that got called off. Left London at 8am this morning. Will be making a business trip over Wed and back Thur the same way if flights are still having difficulty.

Well - fact is that anyone who is travelling via Heathrow is stuck.

roryc1

Well this looks promising http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm
click Nedbor

lucy2010

Not wrote: »

Has he been forced to abandon his road journey ? Is that route reasonably driveable or is it a no go ?

I rang him there to find out for yee all.:D

One word - Horrendous ! He is a precision driver - stunt man/ driver - he drives a specialised camera vehicle for a living so his driving would be top notch.. He needs to know how exact a stop is when he brakes etc.
He left Ipswich at 6am & is now about 60 miles from Holyhead.:eek::eek: That normally takes us 6-8 depending on what we driving .Hes driving a 7ltr dodge that is 4WD & has 6 wheels ( Think ive gotten that bit wrong but someone may correct me - ) Its now into freezing fog - visability less than 10 m if even. Has to stop every few minutes as the washer bottle stuff is freezing.. Now this isnt your usual water stuff - its specialised non freeze jazz but its freezing. Hes clocked -9. The roads are driveable for him at a very slow speed - He said I could forget it... What he meant was Im a normal joe soap driver - They should all simply abandon ship. The traffic is horrific as everyone & their granny is heading for the ferries.. Hes just head down & getting there now but he said the roads are getting worse & worse so anyone trying to do it in your average vauxhall Zafira should forget it .... Im simple terms it must be unbelievably bad if he is saying that.... Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to all the poor sods now thinking of making that journey.

On another note ...................... Its snowing in Bray

pokerface_me

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Well - fact is that anyone who is travelling via Heathrow is stuck.

Tell them to get there arse down to Victoria station and they will be home in a few hours. FACT

steveLFC24

roryc1 wrote: »

Well this looks promising http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm
click Nedbor

Looks good for Monday...and quite amazing for Tuesday. But I have completely given up on the models for the time being, they all over the shop the last few days. Heres hoping though

lucy2010

steveLFC24 wrote: »

Looks good for Monday...and quite amazing for Tuesday. But I have completely given up on the models for the time being, they all over the shop the last few days. Heres hoping though

Ive given up too but MET.ie 5 day rainfall is showing a similar story.... Dont know why im wishing for it really - too much to do & my heart goes out to anyone stranded anywhere for christmas .

steveLFC24

lucy2010 wrote: »

Ive given up too but MET.ie 5 day rainfall is showing a similar story.... Dont know why im wishing for it really - too much to do & my heart goes out to anyone stranded anywhere for christmas .

Yeah I noticed that myself, a number of sources predicting it at this stage but we've been there before. Everything looked great last thursday (for the east), and it eneded being a non event.

Oh and I'm thinking the same myself, I want it to snow really bad but not if it means people can't get home for xmas. White christmas would solve all that I think

th3 s1aught3r

I think there may be a country file BBC weekely forecast on BBC1 soon

lucy2010

steveLFC24 wrote: »

Yeah I noticed that myself, a number of sources predicting it at this stage but we've been there before. Everything looked great last thursday (for the east), and it eneded being a non event.

Oh and I'm thinking the same myself, I want it to snow really bad but not if it means people can't get home for xmas. White christmas would solve all that I think

You know all this wishing for a white christmas stuff - yeah we all do a bit - But christ we havent even got a tree up, Santy is a bit all over the shop & all because he got stranded... So i really feel for everyone stuck somewhere.. especially if there is kiddies involved. & then that poor family in Cork......

But the models we all agree, are on speed at the moment.. dont know what they are at .. We woke to a covering this morning of about 2 cm & because the models said no snow I stupidly left the car in.. Can forget about getting that out now for 3 weeks ( This stupid eps jazz which means it wont budge in snow) so im half following them & Half given up & i keep getting the right half wrong if you get my drift.. I think MT has done a fantastic job & im getting browned off with people knocking him. I follow him all year round & hes spot on.

steveLFC24

lucy2010 wrote: »

You know all this wishing for a white christmas stuff - yeah we all do a bit - But christ we havent even got a tree up, Santy is a bit all over the shop & all because he got stranded... So i really feel for everyone stuck somewhere.. especially if there is kiddies involved. & then that poor family in Cork......

But the models we all agree, are on speed at the moment.. dont know what they are at .. We woke to a covering this morning of about 2 cm & because the models said no snow I stupidly left the car in.. Can forget about getting that out now for 3 weeks ( This stupid eps jazz which means it wont budge in snow) so im half following them & Half given up & i keep getting the right half wrong if you get my drift.. I think MT has done a fantastic job & im getting browned off with people knocking him. I follow him all year round & hes spot on.

Well I sincerely hope you get everything sorted, himself manages to get home and you all end up having have a wonderful xmas.

I'll admit I'm doing the same, I have no faith in any models or forecasts at the moment but I'm still checking them all the time. Mainly because I'm working in ashbourne all week and any sort of snow means it'll be long days for me trying to get in and home. The 5 day met.ie rainfall/temp radars and hirlam models show no let up in temps as far as xmas eve, so a any sort of mild weather before then looks less and less likely.

As for certain people bashing MT, all I have to say is I'd like to see them do it. His forecasts have been as good as any source you will find, be it TV, radio or online. Fact is nobody got it completely right. The guy is a legend and I have great respect for the time and effort he puts into his forcasts.

dacogawa

lucy2010 wrote: »

I think MT has done a fantastic job & im getting browned off with people knocking him. I follow him all year round & hes spot on.

steveLFC24 wrote: »

As for certain people bashing MT, all I have to say is I'd like to see them do it. His forecasts have been as good as any source you will find, be it TV, radio or online. Fact is nobody got it completely right. The guy is a legend and I have great respect for the time and effort he puts into his forcasts.

M.T. is always on the button, I remember asking him for help with the cloud cover during the perseids shower & he was very helpful. got the cloud, time & location right on the money, had an amazing night with the missus as it was her first time to see them & it would have been messed up if it wasn't for his help.

The trolls that bad mouth him should be banned from the weather forum

Monkaa

The people who give MT abuse are the people who dont have a single clue about the weather...I was so angry when I saw some of the comments...in fairness he got it spot on bar the East but anyone who know anything about the weather knows that forecasts can change so quickly and its so diverse!! People are so rude sometimes, makes ya sick! Hes gives up so much time for these boards and should be constantly respected and thanked for his work...I think hes doing a great job, I have only been looking at his forecasts daily since the last cold spell and will continue to do so in the future

lucernarian

Could any posts for discussing poster's forecasts, particularly M.T. Cranium's, be directed over to the general cold spell chat thread? There's different discussions cropping up everywhere. If people do have fair comments to make then it would help all of us if they were in the one thread.

Thanks:)

Btw I'm not trying to backseat mod with this post, just trying to keep the thread on track.

steveLFC24

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Could any posts for discussing poster's forecasts, particularly M.T. Cranium's, be directed over to the general cold spell chat thread? There's different discussions cropping up everywhere. If people do have fair comments to make then it would help all of us if they were in the one thread.

Thanks:)

Btw I'm not trying to backseat mod with this post, just trying to keep the thread on track.

Roger that, apologies I've got 3 threads open and keep getting confused!

Elmo5

Righty, model runs. MT's winter storm could be on the way after the new moon over the next few days. Although it doesn't seem like it will be cold enough for this to bring snow, it could be what he was predicting?

mickger844posts

Just a quick look at the UKMO radar and an interesting clump of precipitation is showing up in a line from SW Ireland to the Cornwall coast. Seems to be heading NE and if thats the case could be interesting for the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

NIALL D

mickger844posts wrote: »

Just a quick look at the UKMO radar and an interesting clump of precipitation is showing up in a line from SW Ireland to the Cornwall coast. Seems to be heading NE and if thats the case could be interesting for the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

yep , looks interesting alright.. ill be keepin a close eye on this..
if theres any hope for the south , this is it i think..

come on come on come on , a few inches even

opr

BBC Countryfile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkXBwTPZZTI

Opr

th3 s1aught3r

That says wave after wave of snow for England, Wales... Ireland bone dry apart from maybe south coast getting a bit

opr

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

That says wave after wave of snow for England, Wales... Ireland bone dry apart from maybe south coast getting a bit

Its sickening to watch them get wave after wave of snow :pac: With the uncertainity around the way the models have been performing hopefully things will pan out slightly differently in some of the setups and it will be us getting plastered

Opr

homolumo

Not looking at much snow judging by the Countryfile forecast above. Amazing how all around is getting a pasting and some of us have zilch. It is easy to understand MT's forecasts from a few days back as it could easily have been very different.

mickger844posts

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

That says wave after wave of snow for England, Wales... Ireland bone dry apart from maybe south coast getting a bit

It was funny how apologetic she was basically saying they don't really know whats going to happen and how its a forecasters nightmare. Hope they are wrong and that band that is currently off the south west coast pushes into the south.;)

th3 s1aught3r

mickger844posts wrote: »

It was funny how apologetic she was basically saying they don't really know whats going to happen and how its a forecasters nightmare. Hope they are wrong and that band that is currently off the south west coast pushes into the south.;)

Yeah anything beyond Tuesday they dont have a clue. I am still hoping the easterlies pick up, get the streamers going again. They certainly had not much hope for milder weather by Christmas :cool:

gouche

mickger844posts wrote: »

Just a quick look at the UKMO radar and an interesting clump of precipitation is showing up in a line from SW Ireland to the Cornwall coast. Seems to be heading NE and if thats the case could be interesting for the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Baraca posts: The precipitation from that will break up significantly before it reaches the south coast and slam straight into south england, According to latest models/forecasts anyway. If it makes us then party on! lol.

th3 s1aught3r

Gerry Murphys cheesey grin is starting to get annoying
Anyway, that forcast is totally at odds with the BBC. Possible heavy snow Tuesday/Wed, bbc charts were bone dry for us in the east
Im confused

Edit: I hope Gerry is right !

Villain

Its very hard to forecast these low's No-One has been right on this spell with regards to snowfall.

What confuses me is how they can be so uncertain about Tuesday not to give a detailed forecast but can then be certain of a breakdown on xmas day

force eleven

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Gerry Murphys cheesey grin is starting to get annoying
Anyway, that forcast is totally at odds with the BBC. Possible heavy snow Tuesday/Wed, bbc charts were bone dry for us in the east
Im confused

Edit: I hope Gerry is right !

I've sky plussed that forecast for posterity because he is certain of his favourite weather returning on Christmas Eve ie it 'will be wet and windier and all the snow and ice will melt away over Christmas week'. If they can't be confident on what happens in two or three how can he be so sure about this?? And yes, his grin was mozzarella flavoured tonight :cool:

mickger844posts

Villain wrote: »

Its very hard to forecast these low's No-One has been right on this spell with regards to snowfall.

What confuses me is how they can be so uncertain about Tuesday not to give a detailed forecast but can then be certain of a breakdown on xmas day

I was thinking the same thing myself Villain. The BBC have that system that is currently off the SW coast and running to Cornwall skirting the south coast but the track now is a direct hit. Definitely one to watch in the next few hours.

Musicman2000

Cant see it myself lads, it will either stall, break up or swing in a south west direction, at the moment it dose look like its heading in a North East direction