Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, the 12Z GFS wants to push back the breakdown to the 26th. No surprise to see this, it has been pushed back several times now. Still though, there will be a breakdown at some stage ,probably before the end of the month, maybe not as fast as the models are showing, but it has to happen. :pac:

not necessarily. . . Could be the start of a new ice age. . .:P

Trotter

Am I right in saying those charts for tonight take snow out of the equation for Waterford?

Everything seems to be too far east to effect us.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Am I right in saying those charts for tonight take snow out of the equation for Waterford?

Everything seems to be too far east to effect us.

12Z UKMO showing precip for the southeast from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/24h.htm

Doesn' mean it will happen but there it is.

premiercad

Lads I know this is complete FI but just highlighting the difficulty the models are having with this winters weather, a siberian express in the new year! madness :eek:

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z UKMO showing precip for the southeast from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/24h.htm

Doesn' mean it will happen but there it is.

Still looks fine for the east and southeast tommorow and wen, dont pay much attention to the GFS snow chart its very poor and the hirlam model is changing the whole time

maquiladora

Pure FI and not a very good model but the 12Z GME on Dec 26th :

Sunnyisland

Its snowing heavy here in Ballyfermot at the moment.

munsterlegend

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Still looks fine for the east and southeast tommorow and wen, dont pay much attention to the GFS snow chart its very poor and the hirlam model is changing the whole time

have always found the hirlam model very reliable until recently. looks like any further snow chances here are diminishing unless something unpredictable happens. reading on NW they are having doubts that the mild air will win out this weekend! should be an interesting weather week..

Musicman2000

munsterlegend wrote: »

have always found the hirlam model very reliable until recently. looks like any further snow chances here are diminishing unless something unpredictable happens. reading on NW they are having doubts that the mild air will win out this weekend! should be an interesting weather week..

Yeah I think Cork can forget about anymore snow, more of an east, south east snow event tommorow

fizzycyst

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Yeah I think Cork can forget about anymore snow, more of an east, south east snow event tommorow

I don't see the SE getting any this evening to be honest, hope I'm wrong

Vain

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Yeah I think Cork can forget about anymore snow, more of an east, south east snow event tommorow

:(:(

How could they get the forecast so wrong, they said we would have snow over the next few days:mad::mad::mad:

Musicman2000

fizzycyst wrote: »

I don't see the SE getting any this evening to be honest, hope I'm wrong

No not this evening from early tommorow morning threw till wen and thats a maybe

Musicman2000

Vain wrote: »

:(:(

How could they get the forecast so wrong, they said we would have snow over the next few days:mad::mad::mad:

Its changing the whole the time, even on met,ie they said they are not sure where snow is going to fall

hotwhiskey

Well the latest GFS run has pushed back the mild S/W for another 24 to 36hrs into the second half of Christmas day. I wouldn't be surprised to see Snow from this front especially for the northern half of the country on Christmas day before it turns to rain. It will be a battle alright between the cold and mild air.

One thing is for sure that i can guarantee tonight if Gerry Murphy is on 9.30 weather he will not be doing a Micheal Flatley jig as he did last night showing a Christmas eve chart with rain and 10c.

maquiladora

fizzycyst wrote: »

I don't see the SE getting any this evening to be honest, hope I'm wrong

No, not this evening. Possible from early tomorrow morning though.

mickger844posts

This close to the time it will be very interesting to see if the south east will get hit with the predicted snow for tomorrow. There is a good consensus among models and forecasts that it will happen. They have to get it right sometime i guess

Musicman2000

mickger844posts wrote: »

This close to the time it will be very interesting to see if the south east will get hit with the predicted snow for tomorrow. There is a good consensus among models and forecasts that it will happen. They have to get it right sometime i guess

Yeah your right most of the models are looking good, from what I can see it will spead west from Wales over the Irish sea, where it goes from there is the question, the UKMO precp 12z chart looks good, looking at then lunch time forecast on RTE 1 she didnt have a clue where it was going to go

TheMilkyPirate

mickger844posts wrote: »

This close to the time it will be very interesting to see if the south east will get hit with the predicted snow for tomorrow. There is a good consensus among models and forecasts that it will happen. They have to get it right sometime i guess

Hope so mick 6 news forecast should be interestng

Speak Now

mickger844posts wrote: »

This close to the time it will be very interesting to see if the south east will get hit with the predicted snow for tomorrow. There is a good consensus among models and forecasts that it will happen. They have to get it right sometime i guess

Dont get your hopes up Mick, i'm fairly sure we'll miss out this time.
Reckon Wexford will get some though.

TURRICAN

Check out sky news interactive weather they show loads of precip for the south east for early hours of Tuesday morning and afternoon. :cool:

Musicman2000

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Dont get your hopes up Mick, i'm fairly sure we'll miss out this time.
Reckon Wexford will get some though.

I think ye are in a with a good chance:) Its a wait and see situation

Supercell

Anyone know what the Met forcaster(forget his name) was on about when he said they were watching low pressure in Wales?

I have no idea what he's on about! There is an increased convection index tomorrow in the Irish sea off Wales that will probably lead to streamers for south Dublin and Wicklow, but I dont know what hes on about in Wales?
Anyone know what model they are looking?

Musicman2000

Supercell wrote: »

Anyone know what the Met forcaster(forget his name) was on about when he said they were watching low pressure in Wales?

I have no idea what he's on about! There is an increased convection index tomorrow in the Irish sea off Wales that will probably lead to streamers for south Dublin and Wicklow, but I dont know what hes on about in Wales?
Anyone know what model they are looking?

Have a look at the radar whats over wales at the moment, but the BBC changed their charts again, so there goes tommorow snow

Dotsie~tmp

NAE 48h accum. looks good. If it holds which the models havent been doing.

th3 s1aught3r

An update on six one news just now, Met Eireann say for next 2 days potentially heavy snow for east leinster .... maybe we were too quick to throw the toys out

Supercell

Those precip charts are bollix.

Cosmo Kramer

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

An update on six one news just now, Met Eireann say for next 2 days potentially heavy snow for east leinster .... maybe we were too quick to throw the toys out

She also said highs of 7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day, thought that had all been put back 24-48 hours at least in the latest models? Weather forecast just before 7 should be interesting.

th3 s1aught3r

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

She also said highs of 7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day, thought that had all been put back 24-48 hours at least in the latest models? Weather forecast just before 7 should be interesting.

They have been pedeling this mild Christmas line for a couple of days. I'll believe it when I see it

Darwin

Supercell wrote: »

Anyone know what the Met forcaster(forget his name) was on about when he said they were watching low pressure in Wales?

I have no idea what he's on about! There is an increased convection index tomorrow in the Irish sea off Wales that will probably lead to streamers for south Dublin and Wicklow, but I dont know what hes on about in Wales?
Anyone know what model they are looking?

It was Pat Clarke (he normally does the Radio 1 forecasts). I think he was alluding to the large area of snowfall currently over East Wales / Birmingham that is slowly circulating in a north westerly direction.

glimmerman123

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

She also said highs of 7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day, thought that had all been put back 24-48 hours at least in the latest models? Weather forecast just before 7 should be interesting.

Yeah she did say temps would be around 10c with frost free nights after that. ME are really pinning their collar to the mast with this mild spell.