Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

200motels

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

BBC have been well off the mark with regards to Ireland. Dont think they bother with accuracy for us

I concur with that.

BEASTERLY

In all fairness, Met Eireann have been the most accuarate through this spell out of anybody, i think they must be comended for a job well done through a very difficult spell. Generally i would stick with M.T for forecasts but to my surprise the lads in glasnevin have been top of the pack.

homolumo

BEASTERLY wrote: »

In all fairness, Met Eireann have been the most accuarate through this spell out of anybody, i think they must be comended for a job well done through a very difficult spell. Generally i would stick with M.T for forecasts but to my surprise the lads in glasnevin have been top of the pack.

I am not too sure about that. They have been chopping and changing forecasts as much as the next. For example they gave widespread snow for across the country for Fri night/Sat morn as late as Fri evening and it never materialized.

derekon

inabina wrote: »

yes but yesterday, what did the BBC forecast for the east coast today? bugger all I believe?

This morning, the BBC forecast (about 7.45am) showed a few snow showers in the Irish Sea between Dublin and Wales that did not reach land and fizzled out by 3pm.

In other words, totally useless given Dublin got plastered with snow this evening. I would discard their snow reports totally as they don't have a good track record in respect of Ireland

K-9

derekon wrote: »

This morning, the BBC forecast (about 7.45am) showed a few snow showers in the Irish Sea between Dublin and Wales that did not reach land and fizzled out by 3pm.

In other words, totally useless given Dublin got plastered with snow this evening. I would discard their snow reports totally as they don't have a good track record in respect of Ireland

They are good for the NW and West but we don't count!

BEASTERLY

homolumo wrote: »

I am not too sure about that. They have been chopping and changing forecasts as much as the next. For example they gave widespread snow for across the country for Fri night/Sat morn as late as Fri evening and it never materialized.

As did everybody else but they were the first to call correctly that it wouldnt happen. Not saying they've been perfect they have been the best of a bad bunch so to speak.

L.perenne

I was wondering if anyone knows where you can look at old output from the HIRLAM model?

I use weatheronline.co.uk for looking at models & you can go through to look at past runs, but HIRLAM isn't posted there. I only have site http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm to look at HIRLAM output. Are there others?

Cosmo Kramer

If you judge 'best' based on never being wrong because they don't forecast anything specific until it is actually happening than, yes, Met Eireann have been the best.

If you judge it based on forecasting the weather in advance then they have been completely useless.

If the temperature reaches 7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day in multiple locations around the country as they have predicted tonight I may revise my opinion.

Pangea

MT beat them all before it began ,he predicted the big freezes back in novemeber.

Trotter

TURRICAN wrote: »

Have you a link for that chart?

http://www.meteociel.fr

That's one I was keeping an eye on. The one that has me convinces is the met eireann 5 day forecast model.

th3 s1aught3r

Darwin wrote: »

It was Pat Clarke (he normally does the Radio 1 forecasts). I think he was alluding to the large area of snowfall currently over East Wales / Birmingham that is slowly circulating in a north westerly direction.

Do they believe the system over Wales is vering towards us ? It must not be losing any steam as it moves over mainland Britain...

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

MT beat them all before it began ,he predicted the big freezes back in novemeber.

he was predicting the first one back in october! In fairness to mt, there has been some complaining about his snow forecasts being off this week but he was right for an awful lot of the country, and everyone was wrong for the rest of it. Still showing a remarkable degree of accuracy!

inabina

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Do they believe the system over Wales is vering towards us ? It must not be losing any steam as it moves over mainland Britain...

if this comes thru, we are in for it on the east coast. a couple of feet of snow?:D:D:D

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

mickger844posts

MTs latest update has given me a little more optimism for us in the south east for tomorrow and Wednesday but if we are depending on whats coming from Wales and the UK dont think that will be strong enough to make it our way.

inabina

right here we go, a HUGE forecast for "in the mix" girl

inabina

IN THE MIX: "Wet and Windy Christmas Day, temps 5-10C, rain, but may fall as sleet or snow initially"

The Little Fella

She'd be good for a poke if the telly was broke.:)

homolumo

Jaysus she is useless. I am amazed how confident ME are of milder weather come Christmas Day.

Pentecost

Aye and if it wasn't snowing!

Musicman2000

Cant see it myself either, whats over wales and England looks weak and if it dose swing it will prob just hit Dublin and Wicklow

th3 s1aught3r

Just looking at Raintoday, London getting hammered again and another blast is heading their way off the south coast
Spare a thought for the poor sods in Heathrow, now night three

pistolpetes11

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Cant see it myself either, whats over wales and England looks weak and if it dose swing it will prob just hit Dublin and Wicklow

It will mainly be convection from the Irish sea from what I am reading

darol15

well down here in cork weve only had dandruff compared to the rest of the country !
any heard of the wether site yr.no ?? cause they reckon we have snow 2mor ! are they accurate?

opr

GFS rolling out at the moment and sticking with the south east and east coast to get a pasting from tomorrow on.

Opr

Musicman2000

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

It will mainly be convection from the Irish sea from what I am reading

The Hirlam model has just being updated for tommorow and is looking good for the east and south east tommorow looks like the precp will push a bit inland, but ill believe it when I see it:)

dave1982

darol15 wrote: »

well down here in cork weve only had dandruff compared to the rest of the country !
any heard of the wether site yr.no ?? cause they reckon we have snow 2mor ! are they accurate?

RTE had snow for us on 6 one news then at 9 we had nothing.However should the county get heavy rain down pours...You know who will get it first:rolleyes:

It's soul destroying we were meant to have all the snow this week

oterra

opr wrote: »

GFS rolling out at the moment and sticking with the south east and east coast to get a pasting from tomorrow on.

Opr

Those streamers that dumped on Dublin, Meath, Wicklow seem to heading inland now and the Irish Sea looks clear of further activity. How long do we reckon before more organised streamers build and head for shore?

BEASTERLY

When the system over wales reaches the irish sea it will receive a boost in activity. It is misleading to say that the precipitation over wales and central england will be heading our way. This is what is giving people the idea that it will fizzle out and not make it here.

The best way I can describe it is the disturbance over wales and England that is causing that precip atm is what will head west towards us. Precipitation will continue to develop all the time. Look at the radar and you will see that the band is continuously developing even over land.

I am thinking(and hoping) that when this disturbance is reaches the Irish sea in the early morning we will observe some healthy development.Hopefully:cool:

I'm going to say a 65% chance of snow in Wexford tomorrow.

darol15

same with the 5.30 they seemed to think there would be but you can only take it for granted when they say there will be none ! got one small dropping of it the other day but i was dying with the flu !:mad:

th3 s1aught3r

oterra wrote: »

Those streamers that dumped on Dublin, Meath, Wicklow seem to heading inland now and the Irish Sea looks clear of further activity. How long do we reckon before more organised streamers build and head for shore?

Yeah the Irish Sea looks clear on the radar. But I have no idea how streamers form either, would also like to know :pac: