Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

srocliffe

Anybody care to make an educated guess based on current speed and direction, as to what time the snow building up in the Irish sea from Wales is likely to hit the east coast (North Dublin in particular). Just wondering is it worth waiting up, or will it not be until the morning.

patneve2

srocliffe wrote: »

Anybody care to make an educated guess based on current speed and direction, as to what time the snow building up in the Irish sea from Wales is likely to hit the east coast (North Dublin in particular). Just wondering is it worth waiting up, or will it not be until the morning.

I'd guess we'll have instability nearing the Dublin coast about 4/5am, snow maybe from 6/7am...don't take my word though.

H2UMrsRobinson

srocliffe wrote: »

Anybody care to make an educated guess based on current speed and direction, as to what time the snow building up in the Irish sea from Wales is likely to hit the east coast (North Dublin in particular). Just wondering is it worth waiting up, or will it not be until the morning.

I would go to bed - I will be soon. There's nothing quite like waking up to fresh snowfall or the imminent possibility of snow!

Victor Meldrew

srocliffe wrote: »

Anybody care to make an educated guess based on current speed and direction, as to what time the snow building up in the Irish sea from Wales is likely to hit the east coast (North Dublin in particular). Just wondering is it worth waiting up, or will it not be until the morning.

Was just about to ask the same question here (From a south Dublin perspective).

Bord Gais arrived just after midnight to fix heating. (Legend...) So the weather is now interesting again as opposed to something to curse.

srocliffe

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

I would go to bed - I will be soon. There's nothing quite like waking up to fresh snowfall or the imminent possibility of snow!

patneve2 wrote: »

I'd guess we'll have instability nearing the Dublin coast about 4/5am, snow maybe from 6/7am...don't take my word though.

Thanks, that's what I probably thought myself, but wasn't sure. I'm off work until the New Year, so can enjoy snow watching and not worry about commuting in it

th3 s1aught3r

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

Bord Gais arrived just after midnight to fix heating. (Legend...) So the weather is now interesting again as opposed to something to curse.

Surely there were a few 'I dont believe its!'
Mr Meldrew

th3 s1aught3r

srocliffe wrote: »

Thanks, that's what I probably thought myself, but wasn't sure. I'm off work until the New Year, so can enjoy snow watching and not worry about commuting in it

Rush hour in the morning looks like it will be hellish in Dublin

Gremlin

Scubadevils wrote: »

Here will you move that up as far as Lusk please?

I'll have a word with 'the man' but its a bit late to be coming on here asking to move a whole snowstorm.:D

homolumo

I see ME have pushed the milder coniditions back to late on Christmas Day into St Stephens Day

hotwhiskey

homolumo wrote: »

I see ME have pushed the milder coniditions back to late on Christmas Day into St Stephens Day

Well what do you know!! Thats no surprise. They will be alot of red faces at ME as the were so head strong on mild conditions sweeping the country on Christmas eve two day's ago so they were following the ECM by the looks of things. Anyway we cant be to harsh on them as i feel they have not done a bad job during these weeks of very difficult forecasting with limited resources.

But i will have fun today telling people i told you so as they were telling me since the weekend it will be all gone by Christmas. Thanks MT.:)

mickger844posts

Looking at the radar that lovely bank of cloud off to my NE is heading for Waterford City. Looks like it could be a nice amount as its very slow moving. If it does snow i will be streaming it live from a link on my website www.waterfordcityweather.com. Fingers crossed

pistolpetes11

Uppers now staying well below on 0Z for xmas day

Setun

Does anybody have any idea of how the weather might affect Dublin airport situation for tomorrow evening? I'm due to fly home from Schipol airport (Amsterdam) and starting to get a bit worried!

dirtyghettokid

the radar seems a bit strange at the moment;
the ME one shows a disappearance of the streamer over east meath, yet rain today shows it exploding into something larger! (both 8.30 images)
which one am i supposed to believe....

Hells Belle

The Dublin radar seems to be down according to the other thread, have a look at the UKMet, I don't know if they use the same radars tho

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking at the radar that lovely bank of cloud off to my NE is heading for Waterford City. Looks like it could be a nice amount as its very slow moving. If it does snow i will be streaming it live from a link on my website www.waterfordcityweather.com. Fingers crossed

Pretty sure we will see some snow later today/this evening. Couple of inches are possible but it could be a hit and miss affair.

maquiladora

dirtyghettokid wrote: »

the radar seems a bit strange at the moment;
the ME one shows a disappearance of the streamer over east meath, yet rain today shows it exploding into something larger! (both 8.30 images)
which one am i supposed to believe....

The Dublin radar isn't showing there, will probably be back up on the next update. Happens now and again.

200motels

Will we get snow today by the look of things we won't anyone think we will?

maquiladora

200motels wrote: »

Will we get snow today by the look of things we won't anyone think we will?

Yes, but probably not that much.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, but probably not that much.

maq any update on the charts and the breakdown? MT doesn't see much of one happening.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

maq any update on the charts and the breakdown? MT doesn't see much of one happening.

Models have been pushing back the breakdown for the last few days. At the moment its pushed back to around the of 26th.

The Australian model is showing the breakdown failing and the cold winning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php

Some sort of a breakdown is likely though I think, around the 26th or 27th, but it might only be a short warm up before another cold spell anyway...

At the end of the day though, nobody really knows!

leahyl

Lads could any of this snow in West Munster push eastwards towards Cork City or am i clutching at straws?

pistolpetes11

leahyl wrote: »

Lads could any of this snow in West Munster push eastwards towards Cork City or am i clutching at straws?

You will get a more definite answer in the live chat section on www.irishweatheronline.com

A lot of the posters both use both now ,

From what I am hearing west cork looks good for it .

maquiladora

Issued at 21 December 2010 - 08:18

Update to Severe Weather warning

Continuing extremely cold in all areas with severe frost, ice and fog patches.

Heavy snow showers in Munster, Connacht and Leinster today. Amounts of 4 to 8 cm generally, but 8 to 12 cm possible in west Munster and east Leinster. Risk of thunder in east Leinster.

Scattered snow showers in north and west Ulster also. Up to 3 cm possible

Valid from 0800 to 2400 on 21st December 2010

Pangea

From the Horses mouth.
Gerry said the thaw is coming slower than they anticipated..
Click link for audio
http://www.highlandradio.com/2010/12/21/snow-showers-forecast-for-northwest-tonight/

Snow showers forecast for Northwest tonight

Posted: 21/Dec 08:48
Last Updated: 21/Dec 08:48

Met Eireann has just updated its severe weather alert for the day ahead.

Officials say it will continue extremely cold in all areas with severe frost, ice and fog patches.

Scattered snow showers in north and west Ulster with up to 3 cm possible

Met Eireann says it now looks like the predicted thaw will arrive later than expected on Christmas Day.

Forecaster Gerry Murphy says the freezing temperatures will stay with us into Saturday

opr

GFS 6z has the SE and east coast getting snow continually for the next 24 hours. Still going for a slow breakdown around the 26th.

Opr

Cosmo Kramer

What has it come to when a regular unqualified jackass like me can look at some model charts, listen to ME forecasts and know with near certainty that I've got it right and the professionals have got it wrong?

7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day, thats all Ive been listening to from people around here the last two days, because they saw it on RTE and assumed it must be right. Nobody else was forecasting that, BBC, SKY or anyone who knew how to read a few different weather charts - shocking stuff from ME.

I guess it looks like MT Cranium was right all along regarding the east and south east, just a little bit later than predicted!

So I'll be diplomatic and go Weathercheck 1 MT Cranium 1

(MT Cranium wins on away goals rule)

maquiladora

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

What has it come to when a regular unqualified jackass like me can look at some model charts, listen to ME forecasts and know with near certainty that I've got it right and the professionals have got it wrong?

7C on Christmas Eve and 10C on Christmas Day, thats all Ive been listening to from people around here the last two days, because they saw it on RTE and assumed it must be right. Nobody else was forecasting that, BBC, SKY or anyone who knew how to read a few different weather charts - shocking stuff from ME.

I guess it looks like MT Cranium was right all along regarding the east and south east, just a little bit later than predicted!

So I'll be diplomatic and go Weathercheck 1 MT Cranium 1

(MT Cranium wins on away goals rule)

Met Eireann use the ECMWF model in their forecasts beyond the short range. If that model was showing mild conditions for Christmas Eve then their charts on the TV forecast will show that too. It's as simple as that really.

A lot of the charts shown and talked about on this forum are from a different weather model, the American GFS model, Met Eireann don't use that so it has no impact on their forecasts.

plumber man

now snowing in new ross jerry seinfield asked me to let him know

Speak Now

plumber man wrote: »

now snowing in new ross jerry seinfield asked me to let him know

Good man Plumber, it's on the way