Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

200motels

plumber man wrote: »

now snowing in new ross jerry seinfield asked me to let him know

It must be on it's way to us.

joes girls

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Good man Plumber, it's on the way

If you get what we just got in Wexford town, it's happy days for ye!!!!:)

Cosmo Kramer

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann use the ECMWF model in their forecasts beyond the short range. If that model was showing mild conditions for Christmas Eve then their charts on the TV forecast will show that too. It's as simple as that really.

A lot of the charts shown and talked about on this forum are from a different weather model, the American GFS model, Met Eireann don't use that so it has no impact on their forecasts.

Perhaps they should broaden their horizons, you know, read a few more charts so that they might be wrong less of the time? If I can read 3 or 4 different ones and take some kind of average as the most likely outcome based on the different possibilities, surely they can do the same?

I'm just a bit offended by the glee and certainty with which Murphy announced the Christmas Eve thaw a few nights ago, there was no 'it looks as if' or 'possibility of', it was more like it 'will rain on the 24th', the country 'will thaw' on the 24th etc.

plumber man

200motels wrote: »

It must be on it's way to us.

pretty heavy where i am good covering in the last 30 min or so i is very dark which ever direction i look happy days

channaigh

will this push into kilkenny does anyone know ????????????????????????

maquiladora

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Perhaps they should broaden their horizons, you know, read a few more charts so that they might be wrong less of the time? If I can read 3 or 4 different ones and take some kind of average as the most likely outcome based on the different possibilities, surely they can do the same?

Ireland is a member of the ECMWF and that is this model that is used in those forecasts you see on TV. If you lived in Canada you would see TV forecasts with charts based on the GEM model. If you lived in Australia you would see charts based on the BOM model. Thats just how it goes. National weather services around the world base their forecasts on the models that are either their own or belong to a wider intergovernmental organisation that they are members of.

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fizzycyst

from the MET E radar looks like this snow wants to stay just to the east of waterford for the moment

Gremlin

Just been looking at the most recent evidence and my take is a second unstable airmass current dropping lots of snow over wales will do a similar trick to the last one and track across the water. This time I think its the northern half of the east coast which is most at risk . Basically Dublin and north of it. This secondary event has the potential to be bigger than the morning event the southern half of the east coast is currently 'enjoying' With continuing showers for the southern half of the east cost.

Dublin could be in a very bad way come midnight.

More as it develops.

cherryghost

Charts for Christmas Day into St Stephens day is looking less than FI now, and more like reality.

Charts are following similar patterns from the previous 2 days regarding the mild push from the south. While south areas may encur rain/sleet, seems many other areas will suffer from heavy snow. Uppers are perfect, lowers are still hovering around freezing as the low pushes north, then it stops in its path right over UK and Ireland, before being pushed right back.

Definitely one to watch over the next 48 hours

Gremlin

channaigh wrote: »

will this push into kilkenny does anyone know ????????????????????????

I'd be surprised if you got anything more than a few flurries. The current snowfall doesn't seem to have any penetrative power. Basically its dumping on the coast and fading rapidly as it tracks inland.

But then you can always hope/not hope (delete as appropriate).

homolumo

fizzycyst wrote: »

from the MET E radar looks like this snow wants to stay just to the east of waterford for the moment

May not get out to me in Kill so.

Speak Now

fizzycyst wrote: »

from the MET E radar looks like this snow wants to stay just to the east of waterford for the moment

It's a slow burner, hit Wexford at 7 a.m so it's been a long trek.
Should just clip the city i'd say.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS has this down for the day on the east coast.


EDIT: 1,000th post!

Speak Now

fizzycyst wrote: »

from the MET E radar looks like this snow wants to stay just to the east of waterford for the moment

Stopped on the border

homolumo

It seems to have gotten as far as the border had a look at Waterford and said no thanks or the snow shield is back in operation.

Duiske

cherryghost wrote: »

Charts for Christmas Day into St Stephens day is looking less than FI now, and more like reality.

Charts are following similar patterns from the previous 2 days regarding the mild push from the south. While south areas may encur rain/sleet, seems many other areas will suffer from heavy snow. Uppers are perfect, lowers are still hovering around freezing as the low pushes north, then it stops in its path right over UK and Ireland, before being pushed right back.

Definitely one to watch over the next 48 hours

Cherryghost, what model are you basing this on ? Can't see anything other than a dry xmas day, rain pushing in from the west in the early hours of St.Stephens day, and bringing with it an increase in temps to between 4 and 7 degrees for most of the country. (apart from north-west and NI).

Any snow on St. Stephens day will be very short-lived and probably only on the highest ground. Beyond that, and i hope i'm wrong, it look's like high pressure over mainland europe combined with low pressure to the north/north-west will keep us in a relatively milder atlantic airflow for the forseeable.

fizzycyst

homolumo wrote: »

It seems to have gotten as far as the border had a look at Waterford and said no thanks or the snow shield is back in operation.

looking at the GFS I think it looks more likely that Waterford will get some snow this evening/tonight. We can only hope

Musicman2000

fizzycyst wrote: »

looking at the GFS I think it looks more likely that Waterford will get some snow this evening/tonight. We can only hope

to be honest its not looking good for waterford, but you never know:)

Pangea

Amazing all the conflicting forecasts with Christmas Day just four days away :eek:

opr

Gremlin wrote: »

Just been looking at the most recent evidence and my take is a second unstable airmass current dropping lots of snow over wales will do a similar trick to the last one and track across the water. This time I think its the northern half of the east coast which is most at risk . Basically Dublin and north of it. This secondary event has the potential to be bigger than the morning event the southern half of the east coast is currently 'enjoying' With continuing showers for the southern half of the east cost.

Dublin could be in a very bad way come midnight.

More as it develops.

Is this roughly the area of unstable airmass you are talking about ? I think if you play the Sat you can see the airmass moving very slowly to the area you are talking about.

http://www.sat24.com/gb

It looks to be causing lots of activity in wales :P

Opr

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Amazing all the conflicting forecasts with Christmas Day just four days away :eek:

Christmas Day looks bone dry on the GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/GEM/BOM models at the moment. Subject to change of course.

Gremlin

opr wrote: »

Is this roughly the area of unstable airmass you are talking about ?

Opr, sorry i cant see your graphic as imageshack is blocked from my work account. However it seems we are looking at the same area alright. Raintoday shows it just over anglesea and to the south. Once that hits the sea (as it is starting to do now) it will probably intensify even more. Well have to wait and see how it develops but this could well be a VERY major feature this evening and tonight.

I'm no pro like some of the guys here, i'd be VERY interested to hear their opinions.

TheMilkyPirate

RTE weather had snow on the east coast right up till thursday, Also said remaining bitterly cold christmas eve but no mention of anything after that. Could be having second thoughts?

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Christmas Day looks bone dry on the GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/GEM/BOM models at the moment. Subject to change of course.

Just thinking the same thing , the milder more moist air being held at bay .

What do you think the chances are that this mild air wont make it through and just gets swallowed up by the cold air to the the front and back of it as this chart shows ?

homolumo

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Just thinking the same thing , the milder more moist air being held at bay .

What do you think the chances are that this mild air wont make it through and just gets swallowed up by the cold air to the the front and back of it as this chart shows ?

From what I have read elsewhere it is very possible.

Leeside

baraca wrote: »

RTE weather had snow on the east coast right up till thursday, Also said remaining bitterly cold christmas eve but no mention of anything after that. Could be having second thoughts?

On the Farming Forecast last Sunday they had a temp of +10c for Christmas Day. Now they have a temp of 0c. Now thats what I'd call second thoughts!

opr

Gremlin wrote: »

Opr, sorry i cant see your graphic as imageshack is blocked from my work account. However it seems we are looking at the same area alright. Raintoday shows it just over anglesea and to the south. Once that hits the sea (as it is starting to do now) it will probably intensify even more. Well have to wait and see how it develops but this could well be a VERY major feature this evening and tonight.

I'm no pro like some of the guys here, i'd be VERY interested to hear their opinions.

Would be great if some of the guys more in the know could chime in ?

I was just interested to see if the actual intense shower activity was right under the unstable airmass. If you play that radar it looks to me you can see the airmass which is actually to the right just off the coast but is causing the shower activity on land around it. I say this because it looks on the latest radar as it starts to move now to be causing big convection on the other side of it which you can see on the radar in and around south of Blackpool. I am very much just an interested amateur but enjoying watching and learning a little, will be very interesting see how things develops later.

Opr

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

What do you think the chances are that this mild air wont make it through and just gets swallowed up by the cold air to the the front and back of it as this chart shows ?

Too early to say really. But if I had to make a bet I'd say the chances are the milder air will win out around the 26th or 27th.

mickger844posts

Very disappointing morning but not total unexpected. To come so close was hard to take and looking at the current radar i find it hard to see where our snow will come from. What i'm hoping for now is calm clear weather and a chance to break my station record of -7.7c. At least it will be an ice day as temp now is -1.3c