Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

Winger_PL

This has got to be the run of the week, however, given how GFS changed over the last while I've actually stopped trusting it at all unless the other models tag along as well.

Given what may happen over the next few days I reckon that anything past 3-4 days can be treated as FI, no matter what model it is.

mac80

If this is true, this snow event will cause serious disruption along the east coast, and during one of the busiest weeks of the year for air travel !
Time to out shovel in the boot !

What time is the UKMO chart out at?

compsys

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z has a second worse attack Saturday night and during Sunday.

Either a tonne of sleet or the biggest snowfall since you know when would happen.

At that intensity you'd think sleet on the coasts though, blizzards and huge drifts inland.

And thats the second helping.

Excuse my ignorance but you say because of the intensity of the precipitation you'd expect sleet on the coasts. Why would intensity affect anything? Surely if temps, wind direction and dew points are all favourable then precipitation will be snow? And yes, as you've probably guessed I live around 2 miles from the coast n Dublin lol

Elmo5

My God, I've just seen the GFS, ye aren't joking about the upgrade for the east coast. Seriously, that will be some amount of snow if that comes off.

opr

Judging by that run it looks like those Paddy Power bets are a done deal :P

Opr

beatrice33

mac80 wrote: »

If this is true, this snow event will cause serious disruption along the east coast, and during one of the busiest weeks of the year for air travel !
Time to out shovel in the boot !

What time is the UKMO chart out at?

nooooooooooooooooooooo...

I love snow, and im loving the excitement of extreme weather conditions, but im flying home this Monday...i hope my flight doesnt get cancelled

ninebeanrows

compsys wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but you say because of the intensity of the precipitation you'd expect sleet on the coasts. Why would intensity affect anything? Surely if temps, wind direction and dew points are all favourable then precipitation will be snow? And yes, as you've probably guessed I live around 2 miles from the coast n Dublin lol

I meant wind, the higher the wind-speed onshore the more mixing with the warmer Irish sea which will turn the precip from snow to a wintry mix.

Fighting Irish

So defo some snow in carlow?

homolumo

opr wrote: »

Judging by that run it looks like those Paddy Power bets are a done deal :P

Opr

Chalk it down.

Duiske

Weathercheck wrote:

Oh MY GOD:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Know what ? I would pay feck'in Mega Bucks to see Weathercheck do one of the RTE weather bulletins tonight. Just imagine it.

CrackisWhack

Weathercheck wrote: »

I meant wind, the higher the wind-speed onshore the more mixing with the warmer Irish sea which will turn the precip from snow to a wintry mix.

How far inland would you have to be, to safely say it would be snow instead of sleet?

homolumo

Duiske wrote: »

Weathercheck wrote: »

Oh MY GOD:eek::eek::eek::eek:

Know what ? I would pay feck'in Mega Bucks to see Weathercheck do one of the RTE weather bulletins tonight. Just imagine it.

The forecast could be very short, only one word is needed.

cian1500ww

Bloody hell, those charts look amazing!! This is gonna be the weather event of the year methinks if not the decade!!!!

lucernarian

Christ almighty, the place has gone into bedlam. The funny thing about it is, the GFS evolution actually looks reasonably realistic. The LP for Friday night originally was progged as an offshoot of the main Polar Vortex. Yet it was able to rapidly move southeast while the more northerly LP did little. That sort of shift of emphasis from north to south didn't look right to me so seeing the ex-PV hold together more and then re-intensify as it goes down the Irish Sea looks much better to my admittedly untrained eye.

As the UKMO trundles out, it's suggesting a similar evolution to NAE and GFS. The way forecasts are going is simply gobsmacking.

One point which is still bothering me: The NAE in particular is still expecting explosive cyclogenesis to take place over the landmass of Ireland. I still question this as it's implausible on the face of it and basically I won't believe it until I see it.

By the way explosive cyclogenesis is the deepening of a depression by more than 24 hPa in 24 hours. It generally results from a Polar Jet Stream on steroids pumping up the beginnings of a depression with extreme speed. Such processes were behind the likes of the large storm which hit England in October 1987.

ciaranm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

By the way explosive cyclogenesis is the deepening of a depression by more than 24 hPa in 24 hours. It generally results from a Polar Jet Stream on steroids pumping up the beginnings of a depression with extreme speed. Such processes were behind the likes of the large storm which hit England in October 1987.

If you dumbed that down one more notch, I'm pretty sure I'd be able to follow it.

th3 s1aught3r

any more charts due out this evening ?

patneve2

NAE looking good

Musicman2000

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

any more charts due out this evening ?

Yes the ECMF around six and the Last GSF run at 9:30

lucy2010

patneve2 wrote: »

NAE looking good

Plastered !

Trotter

maquiladora wrote: »

An awful lot more. I dont even know how much snow that would be, but it would be a lot.

Would that include Waterford Maq?
Maybe I should just bring my missis to the labour ward now and give her a loan of my laptop til the big day

ciaranm

Trotter wrote: »

Would that include Waterford Maq?
Maybe I should just bring my missis to the labour ward now and give her a loan of my laptop til the big day

Ah no mate, you'll need your laptop.

lucernarian

ciaranm wrote: »

If you dumbed that down one more notch, I'm pretty sure I'd be able to follow it.

hPa = simply a unit of air pressure.

Polar Jet Stream = the very fast winds that travel around the globe at certain latitudes. But only very high up in the atmoshpere

depression = Low pressure

Exp. Cyclogenesis = Basically when a LP intensifies (pressure falls) very rapidly compared to normal. The jet stream causes this by some more complicated meteorology but it's got to do with the way winds travel anticlockwise in a Low Pressure system. The Jet Stream sometimes can take a dive to lower altitudes and that can cause the anticlockwise wind movement at ground level to really speed up. And that speeding up causes sea level air pressure to fall further.

Trotter

ciaranm wrote: »

Ah no mate, you'll need your laptop.

:D:D:p

You're right.. I will.

I'll buy her the paper

irishdub14

patneve2 wrote: »

NAE looking good

WOW! If only

ciaranm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

hPa = simply a unit of air pressure.

Polar Jet Stream = the very fast winds that travel around the globe at certain latitudes. But only very high up in the atmoshpere

depression = Low pressure

Exp. Cyclogenesis = Basically when a LP intensifies (pressure falls) very rapidly compared to normal. The jet stream causes this by some more complicated meteorology but it's got to do with the way winds travel anticlockwise in a Low Pressure system. The Jet Stream sometimes can take a dive to lower altitudes and that can cause the anticlockwise wind movement at ground level to really speed up.

Wow. Cheers.

I take it if this occurs, we should all batten down the hatches.

wildefalcon

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

hPa = simply a unit of air pressure.

Polar Jet Stream = the very fast winds that travel around the globe at certain latitudes. But only very high up in the atmoshpere

depression = Low pressure

Exp. Cyclogenesis = Basically when a LP intensifies (pressure falls) very rapidly compared to normal. The jet stream causes this by some more complicated meteorology but it's got to do with the way winds travel anticlockwise in a Low Pressure system. The Jet Stream sometimes can take a dive to lower altitudes and that can cause the anticlockwise wind movement at ground level to really speed up. And that speeding up causes sea level air pressure to fall further.

Bit like the venturi effect? Or like a turbo charger effect?

Thanks!

mickger844posts

12z ECM rolling out now. Tasty stuff for Saturday

lucernarian

The 12z ecm is fully out on Met Eireann's own website. Also looking good:)

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-atlantic.asp

Mayo Exile

Similar plot with the UKMO.

Wine Goddess

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

hPa = simply a unit of air pressure.

Polar Jet Stream = the very fast winds that travel around the globe at certain latitudes. But only very high up in the atmoshpere

depression = Low pressure

Exp. Cyclogenesis = Basically when a LP intensifies (pressure falls) very rapidly compared to normal. The jet stream causes this by some more complicated meteorology but it's got to do with the way winds travel anticlockwise in a Low Pressure system. The Jet Stream sometimes can take a dive to lower altitudes and that can cause the anticlockwise wind movement at ground level to really speed up. And that speeding up causes sea level air pressure to fall further.

A BIG thanks to all the kind folks out there who have bothered to help those of us who are new to all this and behaving somewhat like a labrador (passionate, wide-eyed and prone to stupidity from time to time....)
as like most dogs we are pathetically grateful for any attention we can get.....oh no I see where this dog analogy could go and I get a fit of laughter!!!!:D:D