Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

cherryghost

12Z rolling out now

Vudgie

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z NAE precip accum. at 48 hours.

Dublin could be in for some serious snow.

To be honest it is so bad at the moment around dublin that it probably can't get much worse. Well it obviously can but you know what I mean;)

Not

Believe it or not, there seems to be a bit of a thaw on in Dublin dispite the continuing snowfall. There was 7 inches of snow on the ground at 11am this morning, now, dispite significant snowfall almost all day since, there's only 6 - 6.5 inches of snow on the ground

Who's stealing our snow !?!:mad::mad:

Edit : oops probably wrong thread - sorry.

Pangea

So how much has fallen on the east then, what depth?

LookingFor

Not wrote: »

Believe it or not, there seems to be a bit of a thaw on in Dublin dispite the continuing snowfall. There was 7 inches of snow on the ground at 11am this morning, now, dispite significant snowfall almost all day since, there's only 6 - 6.5 inches of snow on the ground

Who's stealing our snow !?!:mad::mad:

Doesn't snow sometimes compress/compact under its own weight after a while?

Calibos

Not wrote: »

Believe it or not, there seems to be a bit of a thaw on in Dublin dispite the continuing snowfall. There was 7 inches of snow on the ground at 11am this morning, now, dispite significant snowfall almost all day since, there's only 6 - 6.5 inches of snow on the ground

Who's stealing our snow !?!:mad::mad:

While there might be a slight thaw going on the fact that your depths seem to be standing still or even backtracking is that the fluffy stuff that is falling is very light and not very dense. Gradually it compresses under the weight of the new stuff falling above. Gravity compacts it rather than compaction underfoot.

maquiladora

Interesting 12Z GFS so far. Showing an increased risk of some snow showers for the east on Thursday morning/afternoon. Also that low south of Iceland is less intense at 48 hours.

goodies

also regarding the snow I remember MT Cranium noting something a few days back to the effect of there being a high water content to this snow? He asked for people to check it? I will try and find the post

Speak Now

compsys wrote: »

Yes, well done. Please waste water so that there's none for the rest of us!

I'd doubt your pulling water from my well :rolleyes:

goodies

just before ye blast me into outerspace saying all snow is water I meant he had some VERY scientific breakdown of the water versus frozen solid aspect of it.....;)

Not

Calibos wrote: »

While there might be a slight thaw going on the fact that your depths seem to be standing still or even backtracking is that the fluffy stuff that is falling is very light and not very dense. Gradually it compresses under the weight of the new stuff falling above. Gravity compacts it rather than compaction underfoot.

It was very fluffy and unfrozen when I was digging myself out this morning, and have had to do more shovelling on the cleared parts again to get back in, so I suppose the undisturbed stuff must be compacting.

That makes the fall of 3ft accumulation here in 1982 even more impressive.

Dotsie~tmp

maquiladora

Snow coming in from the Irish Sea not peaking until around midnight on the UKMO :

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting 12Z GFS so far. Showing an increased risk of some snow showers for the east on Thursday morning/afternoon. Also that low south of Iceland is less intense at 48 hours.

Does this push out the thaw further out, as is it not this low that will be what is needed to push the cold on?

bcmf

here in Nth County Dublin myself and a few neighbours cleared a hill into an estate at about 1pm.At the bottom of the hill we cleared the lot then cleared a track for cars to drive up. It broke up very easily but about 20 mns ago I went out to it and it seems to be thawing very quickly. In fact since we broke a track it seems to be retreating on itself.

Cloud wise... very heavy grey blue clouds above me all day but with very little coming out of them.

homolumo

goodies wrote: »

just before ye blast me into outerspace saying all snow is water I meant he had some VERY scientific breakdown of the water versus frozen solid aspect of it.....;)

Indeed he was saying that depending on the type of snow there was not an exact correlation between snow height and its volume i.e. 7 cm would not necessarily give 7 mL.

maquiladora

Spindle wrote: »

Does this push out the thaw further out, as is it not this low that will be what is needed to push the cold on?

The intensity and location of these lows and how they interact with the weather systems around them could have big impacts on our weather later down the line.

The 12Z GFS pushes back the breakdown back slightly by about 6 hours but I wouldn't too have much confidence in that yet...

maquiladora

12Z UKMO on Christmas Eve has colder upper temps over us than the 12Z GFS.



Swathe of -6 uppers extending way off in the Atlantic to our southwest to a point where the 12Z GFS has upper air 6 degrees warmer for the same time.

Musicman2000

Id say all chances of snow for Waterford and Kilkenny are gone looking at the radar:rolleyes:

cherryghost

No sign of a decent warmup on the charts now. Front still on its way in. What in the world is going to happen!

nacho libre

The ukmo is going out on a limp. who is right? which is better to be right? as the gfs in the short term doesn't look great, but in the longer term looks favourable if you seek a return to cold conditions

laurence997

Lads, where can I see these precipitation charts for Ireland to find out if the west is due anything tonight, or am I wasting my time?
Thanks

jaycarlow

maquiladora wrote: »

Snow coming in from the Irish Sea not peaking until around midnight on the UKMO :

Jesus terrible rain in South a France.....:D

BEASTERLY

laurence997 wrote: »

Lads, where can I see these precipitation charts for Ireland to find out if the west is due anything tonight, or am I wasting my time?
Thanks

Here's a link to the HIRLAM model, prob the most accuarate. But very little precip for the west tonight, apart from the south-west. Slight chance of clare seeing something all the same.

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

th3 s1aught3r

Looking at the rain today radar. Do ye reckon all that percip over Wales is due for us tonight

The roads here in west wicklow are in rag order

homolumo

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Here's a link to the HIRLAM model, prob the most accuarate.

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,418

Dublin and the East look set for more and more snow according to that.

Johnny_Unitis

Would it be unreasonable to expect the the welsh streamer to come as far as the north east(more specifically South Monaghan)?

th3 s1aught3r

ME wheeled out Gerry again to tell us that things would be getting better for Christmas. Its like they are trying to make people feel better. i think people would prefer to know just what the weather will be like

M.T. Cranium

Snow in southwest seems likely to miss Cork and gradually pull out to sea from current areas affected.

Snow in east and southeast is set to continue and move slowly further inland to cover parts of inland southeast and even the southeast coast as far as Waterford and possibly Dunvargan. Amounts further west may be nowhere near as great as coastal Dublin and Wicklow but could start to accumulate several cms. Meath is likely to see some of this snowfall at least in the eastern half of the county, possibly parts of Louth eventually too.

This eastern snow is more than just a streamer event, I've analyzed it as an inverted trough leading to a meso-scale low east of Wicklow that is steady-state and being continually fed from the southeast as very cold air streams out of the Welsh highlands mainly at levels just above the surface. This is creating a large snow shield (not the kind that prevents snow, the kind that is made of snow) with sea-effect enhancement (essentially streamers on steroids). Total amounts could be double whatever you've had so far as we seem to be nearing the half-way point of the event. :eek:

Amounts will be highly variable place to place in this situation but it is quite possible for a further 20-40 cms to fall on top of what's already down in some places. Amounts for areas not yet covered at all might increase gradually to the 5-15 cms range. Forecast update will reflect all this.

thetonynator

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

ME wheeled out Gerry again to tell us that things would be getting better for Christmas. Its like they are trying to make people feel better. i think people would prefer to know just what the weather will be like

theres more to forecasting than a few charts, they could be on to something! Or else the governmment ordered them to say that so people won't blame the gov for the weather and the low salt stocks. :P its a conspiracy i tell ya!