Cold Spell Media Forecasts and Model Output (General Chat)

ciaranm

holy mary mother of god

Mountainsandh

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

ME wheeled out Gerry again to tell us that things would be getting better for Christmas. Its like they are trying to make people feel better. i think people would prefer to know just what the weather will be like

+1
the usual : "let's pretend everything's allright, it'll all be just grrrand"

Dotsie~tmp

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Snow in southwest seems likely to miss Cork and gradually pull out to sea from current areas affected.

Snow in east and southeast is set to continue and move slowly further inland to cover parts of inland southeast and even the southeast coast as far as Waterford and possibly Dunvargan. Amounts further west may be nowhere near as great as coastal Dublin and Wicklow but could start to accumulate several cms. Meath is likely to see some of this snowfall at least in the eastern half of the county, possibly parts of Louth eventually too.

This eastern snow is more than just a streamer event, I've analyzed it as an inverted trough leading to a meso-scale low east of Wicklow that is steady-state and being continually fed from the southeast as very cold air streams out of the Welsh highlands mainly at levels just above the surface. This is creating a large snow shield (not the kind that prevents snow, the kind that is made of snow) with sea-effect enhancement (essentially streamers on steroids). Total amounts could be double whatever you've had so far as we seem to be nearing the half-way point of the event. :eek:

Amounts will be highly variable place to place in this situation but it is quite possible for a further 20-40 cms to fall on top of what's already down in some places. Amounts for areas not yet covered at all might increase gradually to the 5-15 cms range. Forecast update will reflect all this.

Ive officially named this low btw. Its snowmegagiggatrixatron.

inabina

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

ME wheeled out Gerry again to tell us that things would be getting better for Christmas. Its like they are trying to make people feel better. i think people would prefer to know just what the weather will be like

Gerry Scrooge Murphy

inabina

OK, WIRELESS to the ready for the 1758 weather now!

thetonynator

Going by m.t's post, double current amount = 2x0 =0

daisling

bloody wonderful living in west wicklow, starting new job tomorrow and don't fancy my chances better try to get out

inabina

inabina wrote: »

OK, WIRELESS to the ready for the 1758 weather now!

Pat Clarke - wet and windy weather sweeping in from the Atlantic Christmas night falling as snow but turning back to rain Stephens Day as it gets milder.

th3 s1aught3r

inabina wrote: »

Pat Clarke - wet and windy weather sweeping in from the Atlantic Christmas night falling as snow but turning back to rain Stephens Day as it gets milder.

Snowstorm, cant wait

th3 s1aught3r

thetonynator wrote: »

theres more to forecasting than a few charts,

I think your right. Cause the charts aint worth a damn with this weather

BeepBeep67

20cms in Wicklow Town and still going!

noah45

Whats the chance of snow in Athlone tonight or tomorrow?

mac80

Is that a smaller offshoot streamer forming just north of the main streamer, south of the IOM?

TheMilkyPirate

Anyone know what time the low will start to shift south-west?? Winds are north westerly at the moment in wexford, Very annoying!

lolie

baraca wrote: »

Anyone know what time the low will start to shift south-west?? Winds are north westerly at the moment in wexford, Very annoying!

no lad i want it to shift northwest:pac:

cherryghost

noah45 wrote: »

Whats the chance of snow in Athlone tonight or tomorrow?

Slim to none

H2UMrsRobinson

goodies wrote: »

also regarding the snow I remember MT Cranium noting something a few days back to the effect of there being a high water content to this snow? He asked for people to check it? I will try and find the post

In the interests of science I did a wee experiment last night. It struck me as I was washing up the glass measuring jug. I filled the jug with a pint of snow last night (just scooped it up out of the garden didn't press it down) and today when I got home from work I had 2 fl oz of quite murky looking water (note to self - snow not as clean as it looks, do not eat)

16fl oz = 1 pint

Conclusion:- the type of snow we have now has 8 times the volume of water

MilanPan!c

I think my new attitude will be this:

Temps can be reasonably well predicted in Ireland.
Precipitation can not.

Not

Temps warmed up in south Dublin about an hour ago to above zero and the snow turned to rain for a short time in Terenure, then went back to snow, what was with that ?

Is there a possibility that the forecasted further snow precip for Dublin could actually turn to rain at some point and not fall as snow as expected ?

pistolpetes11

Not wrote: »

Temps warmed up in south Dublin about an hour ago to above zero and the snow turned to rain for a short time in Terenure, then went back to snow, what was with that ?

Is there a possibility that the forecasted further snow precip for Dublin could actually turn to rain at some point and not fall as snow as expected ?

Change in Wind direction , bringing in milder sea air , its due to change back later to dm2

fizzycyst

Not wrote: »

Temps warmed up in south Dublin about an hour ago to above zero and the snow turned to rain for a short time in Terenure, then went back to snow, what was with that ?

Is there a possibility that the forecasted further snow precip for Dublin could actually turn to rain at some point and not fall as snow as expected ?

It's sea air causing the temps to rise, the winds have picked up at the moment but are fore-casted to return to more calm conditions, I think, so the rain probably won't last too long

HellFireClub

Just keeps dumping down in huge snowfalls here in West Dublin.

BEASTERLY

On behalf of everybody from outside dublin at the report of rain: AHAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Only messin, temps will prob ris here now too for saying that, lol!

Inquitus

BEASTERLY wrote: »

On behalf of everybody from outside dublin at the report of rain: AHAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Only messin, temps will prob ris here now too for saying that, lol!

Must be very coastal, I am only a mile from where the estuary ends at the motorway in Swords and its snow all the way atm.

Pentecost

Not doing much of anything at the moment in D3 that I can see. If that's all the snow we get it's still a fair dumping. Could do with a little more to cover any ice that forms tonight.

pokerface_me

wrong thread

LookingFor

Oops, wrong thread!

Elmer Blooker

fizzycyst wrote: »

It's sea air causing the temps to rise, the winds have picked up at the moment but are fore-casted to return to more calm conditions, I think, so the rain probably won't last too long

Sea air, really? Malin Head, Valentia, Belmullet, Sherkin Island, all surrounded by sea warmer than the Irish Sea and they are all below freezing at the moment. There's obviously a small warm sector in that depression in the Irish Sea. :mad:

Hammy_irl

What time is the system in the Irish sea expected to make land in Dublin?! I'm in portobello area?!

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Sea air, really? Malin Head, Valentia, Belmullet, Sherkin Island, all surrounded by sea warmer than the Irish Sea and they are all below freezing at the moment. There's obviously a small warm sector in that depression in the Irish Sea. :mad:

Are the winds not blowing off shore there rather than on shore ?