Predict the Election

Denerick

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

Oasis_Dublin

I predict the election will happen.

ilovesleep

Is there anything we can do to get rid of FF from the politicial map. Voting wont do it.

Denerick

ilovesleep wrote: »

Is there anything we can do to get rid of FF from the politicial map. Voting wont do it.

Emigrate and you won't have to worry about it. FF are just a reflection of the people of this island, its them you should really be concerned about.

View

FF to secure an overall majority, FG to commit mass suicide off the Cliffs of Moher as a result.

snubbleste

85 Independents to band together and form a cohesive government.

GSF

snubbleste wrote: »

85 Independents to band together and form a cohesive government.

Jackie Healy Rae - Taoiseach
Michael Lowry - Finance

Bottle_of_Smoke

Denerick wrote: »

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

Wouldn't be quite as negative myself about the actual election results.

I'd be more inclined to say FF will get 20% FG 30 and Labour 25. SF maybe 8-9 seats greens 2 seats and independents or socialists take the rest.

I think you are correct it will end in tears. FF will be a very different party in terms of personnel and will push that as a selling point and get back in as a coalition

later12

FF: 50 seats
FG: 70 approx.
Lab: 28 approx
Greens: 3/ 4
SF: 5
Ind: about 8 to 10

That leaves the (remotely) realistic Coalition options

FF-Lab-Green-Ind(s)
FF-Lab-Inds
FG-Green-Inds

or the most likely, FG-Lab pairing

The big winners of this election will be FG and the Independents.
It seems to follow a trend that terms where independents were kingmakers, they are subsequently re-elected in greater numbers nationally.

OhNoYouDidn't

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

Denerick

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

You are overestimating the capacity of the Irish people to make rational political choices.

Brussels Sprout

This website is dedicated to predicting the results of the election.

maynooth_rules

later10 wrote: »

FF: 50 seats
FG: 70 approx.
Lab: 28 approx
Greens: 3/ 4
SF: 5
Ind: about 8 to 10

That leaves the (remotely) realistic Coalition options

FF-Lab-Green-Ind(s)
FF-Lab-Inds
FG-Green-Inds

or the most likely, FG-Lab pairing

The big winners of this election will be FG and the Independents.
It seems to follow a trend that terms where independents were kingmakers, they are subsequently re-elected in greater numbers nationally.

I don't mean to be dismissive but I cannot really see the Green Party get 4 seats whatsoever. The only possibilities of getting back in are Sergeant and Ryan. Most of the rest, maybe excluding Cuffe, haven't a hope of hell. I think you have to remember that people nearly have more anger for the Greens than FF. They have sat back and allowed this all to happen and done nothing about it. remember they are the kingmakers of this government. Plus their desperate attempt to jump ship and call an election for January did them very little favours, considering every time I open the paper the date is being pushed back a week.
Id love a FG majority, as I think this would be the stability that the country needs. Not going to happen unfortunately.

iPlop

I would say the current line up in FF will be gone after the next election ,then they will make some sort of come back in 2012 like "New Labour" did in the UK in 1997.There will be young go-getter type people that will be the face of "New Fianna Fail" and they will be well versed with the younger generation.Slogans like "OMG We LOL at Fine Gael's plans for water charges LOL" will be the new order of the day which will win them the votes from the younger generation

irishh_bob

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

People are being wildly optimistic about ff and negative about labour

FF will be lucky to get 30 seats.

FF will get between 35 and 40 seats

thier are still a few groups who are loyal to them

pensioners = older so they are more into the voting along family lines thing , spared entirely from the rescession and also benefited hugely during fianna fail,s time in office this past 13 years , pensioners vote in large numbers than any other age profile

farmers = like pensioners , they tend to vote along family lines , farmers also only ever vote for one of two parties ( monaghan farmers excluded ) and farming is going extremley well right now , FF have kept thier promise on recent infrastructural grant schemes related to agriculture depsite the rescession

older public sector workers = be it the relativley small cuts to public sector pensions or the fact that retired teachers still get 1st refusal ( over young teachers ) when it comes to subbing or the fact that FF have always looked after the public sector , this demographic will still return a good few votes for FF

irishh_bob

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I don't mean to be dismissive but I cannot really see the Green Party get 4 seats whatsoever. The only possibilities of getting back in are Sergeant and Ryan. Most of the rest, maybe excluding Cuffe, haven't a hope of hell. I think you have to remember that people nearly have more anger for the Greens than FF. They have sat back and allowed this all to happen and done nothing about it. remember they are the kingmakers of this government. Plus their desperate attempt to jump ship and call an election for January did them very little favours, considering every time I open the paper the date is being pushed back a week.
Id love a FG majority, as I think this would be the stability that the country needs. Not going to happen unfortunately.

green party voters are a much more , shockable and fickle bunch than FF voters , many green voters can no longer stand the smell and will most likely vote labour or some nice man from the left alliance

RGDATA!

Denerick wrote: »

The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form

this part is fairly inevitable IMO
edit: although 2012 is probably a bit soon. 2013/14 yes.

Skrynesaver

Regardless of the 1st preferences, FF are transfer toxic and so won't "pick up the last seat" in the way they are used to. Now crystal ball time:

FG 62
Lab 46
FF 28
SF 15
Green 1
Ind 15

We will end up with a FG/Labour Govt.

Enda Taoiseach (Could be surprisingly effective cabinet chair)
Eamon Táiniste (Interesting to see how he will deal with questions on the policy he's implementing )
Joan Finance (She has an unfortunate tone of voice but is the best qualified prospective cabinet member with academic training in Finance)

Obligatory guess work:

With such a huge majority the only thing that could go wrong will be SF and ULA independents acting as an oppositional conscience to Labour forcing them to stand against FG's desire to implement the IMF shock doctrine. I suspect that it'll last to '13 or '14 at which point FG will continue to try and implement cuts and privatisation beyond what even Labour's base will bear.

later12

Joan Finance (She has an unfortunate tone of voice but is the best qualified prospective cabinet member with academic

From teaching accountancy part time in DIT??

What about Richard Bruton with his MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and his career as an economist?

iPlop

later10 wrote: »

[/INDENT] From teaching accountancy part time in DIT??

What about Richard Bruton with his MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and his career as an economist?

Enda doesn't like him anymore.

maxxie

Denerick wrote: »

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Ardennes1944

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

eh....i dont think he's for FF bud

Denerick

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Thanks for reminding me why I hold the people of this island in such low esteem.

Lockstep

maxxie wrote: »

I predict you will vote FF in the election and remain ignorant..

Make this sort of personal attack again you and you'll have a break from the forum.

PeterIanStaker

My election prediction, as always, is that the two Brians will go to Tony O'Reilly's house for a chat, and the Party Political Broadcast on Behalf of Fianna Fail Late Late show will be a FF circle jerk.

scr123

There seems to be an assumption that FF are just going to lie down and die
There seems to be an assumption that the electorate are going to vote ABFF
The ABFF are so obsessed with FF they cannot see they are are not riddled by holes but huge craters and FF will be exploiting this to the full

FF are up against it but I for one will be bitterly disappointed if FF do not get at least 30% of the vote

Never looked forward to an election campaign as much as this one

Denerick

scr123 wrote: »

There seems to be an assumption that FF are just going to lie down and die
There seems to be an assumption that the electorate are going to vote ABFF
The ABFF are so obsessed with FF they cannot see they are are not riddled by holes but huge craters and FF will be exploiting this to the full

FF are up against it but I for one will be bitterly disappointed if FF do not get at least 30% of the vote

Never looked forward to an election campaign as much as this one

People will vote with what they are comfortable with. Politics in Ireland is like supporting a team, you don't just let the team down when it loses a couple of games. Its unfortunate, but this is our sorry example of political virtue. Frankly we deserved the financial crash and much much more. We deserve a failed state, with no government institutions or constitution. The people of this island have time and time again shown that they are imbeciles.

At the same time, democracy is the only viable government structure, and one can only hope that citizens begin to live up to their obligations under their social contract with the state.

ghostdancer

Denerick wrote: »

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

FG are just as bad at this as FF are from what i've seen.

Eliot Rosewater

ghostdancer wrote: »

FG are just as bad at this as FF are from what i've seen.

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

Denerick

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

Fo Real

I, for one, welcome the EU/IMF financial bailout and would be delighted if Ireland was relegated to just a tiny province on the peripheral edge of the United States of Europe.

We've lived up to our caricatures in the 1800s Punch magazine and proved we're incapable of governing ourselves. Thankfully, our economic soverignty has already been handed over to the more responsible Germans, making it difficult for us to waste more money on ugly one-off housing in scenic areas and paying outrageous wages to middle aged paper pushers in the civil service.

I believe the Paddy can be civilised, but it will take time. We must educate him on the benefits of living in densely populated urban areas as opposed to his bungalow hidden somewhere in the urban sprawl of a generic, faceless "new-town" in the midlands. He must be acquainted with the sophistication of European café culture rater than guzzling pint after pint in the dark corner of the manky village watering hole. Finally, Paddy has to learn to be an entrepreneur and make a living for himself, instead of wasting away on the dole complaining that the government won't give him a job. The MNCs aren't coming back. Stop relying on the Yanks and Japs for employment.

Face it. You're not grown-up enough to be independent. That's why you will come crawling back to FF.