Predict the Election

OhNoYouDidn't

Denerick wrote: »

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

This I agree with. the main reason there are less gombeen men in FG is they are in power less.

Still think you are way overstating FF's returns to the detriment of Labour, which is wishful thinking on your part. They are the kingmakers.

There will be 5 viable options after the election, assuming something mental doesn't happen, and in order of probablility IMHO are:

1: FG & Labour
2: Labour and FG
3: Labour, SF, ULA
4: FG & FF
5: Labour & FF

I really think it will come down to the internal dynamic within Labour about whether they want to jump in with FG or SF (or indeed even FF), and the stickie factor cannot be underestimated.

It will be a fascinating internal debate as to whether they 'play it safe' with FG, or go for a ballsy left based alternative, which could see the likes of Richard Boyd Barrett in a junior ministerial job.

HarryPotter41

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Will you please explain exactly why you think that? It's been said a lot. Thanks.

I tend from various things I am involved in to go to a lot of funerals around Mayo.. The person I always meet as I arrive or leave, Michael Ring, FG TD. Thats why its said a lot. he hasn't been christened 14 funerals a day Ring for nothing. Fair play to John O'Mahoney though, he is doing his best to keep up with him.

Seanachai

Fo Real wrote: »

I, for one, welcome the EU/IMF financial bailout and would be delighted if Ireland was relegated to just a tiny province on the peripheral edge of the United States of Europe.

We've lived up to our caricatures in the 1800s Punch magazine and proved we're incapable of governing ourselves. Thankfully, our economic soverignty has already been handed over to the more responsible Germans, making it difficult for us to waste more money on ugly one-off housing in scenic areas and paying outrageous wages to middle aged paper pushers in the civil service.

I believe the Paddy can be civilised, but it will take time. We must educate him on the benefits of living in densely populated urban areas as opposed to his bungalow hidden somewhere in the urban sprawl of a generic, faceless "new-town" in the midlands. He must be acquainted with the sophistication of European café culture rater than guzzling pint after pint in the dark corner of the manky village watering hole. Finally, Paddy has to learn to be an entrepreneur and make a living for himself, instead of wasting away on the dole complaining that the government won't give him a job. The MNCs aren't coming back. Stop relying on the Yanks and Japs for employment.

Face it. You're not grown-up enough to be independent. That's why you will come crawling back to FF.

I don't think it's fair to lump everybody in under the gombeen\ignorant paddy stereotype. I get frustrated and apathetic at the voting decisions and behaviour of Irish people too but chastising people for not wanting to congregate more in towns and cities isn't cool imo. There's a lot to be said for rural living , gombeens and backwardness aside. I agree there is a lot of ugly one off housing , there's three of them built on reclaimed bog land across from my home place. They look like something out of Wisteria lane ffs , roman columns and the rest. I was struck by how traditional rural housing was when I visited France earlier this year. A more humble less pretentious attitude would be most welcome in the country alright but I think that's resurfacing naturally anyway.

The idealist in me would like to see a Labour\SF\ULA\independents government but the realist in me thinks FG\LAB will be the makeup of the next government. It mightn't go the full term though.

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

There will be 5 viable options after the election, assuming something mental doesn't happen, and in order of probablility IMHO are:

3: Labour, SF, ULA

Dear God. That really would be a case of the last person out turning off the lights.

OhNoYouDidn't

later10 wrote: »

Dear God. That really would be a case of the last person out turning off the lights.

As opposed to what? The situation we are in now?

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

As opposed to what? The situation we are in now?

Yes. When you go to bed tonight in Ireland you know that in the morning your ATM card will work, the bus will be late, the shops will be full and there will be people drinking double espresso skinny lattes with organic soya milk (fair trade) in cafés, or having dinner in restaurants, or just going about their daily business.

A country under hardline republicans, socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category apart from the Eva Morales Appreciation Society or the People Before Profit , would look far different. Probably Greece without the ATMs.

OhNoYouDidn't

later10 wrote: »

Yes. When you go to bed tonight in Ireland you know that in the morning your ATM card will work, the bus will be late, the shops will be full and there will be people drinking double espresso skinny lattes with organic soya milk (fair trade) in cafés, or having dinner in restaurants, or just going about their daily business.

A country under hardline republicans, socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category apart from the Eva Morales Appreciation Society or the People Before Profit , would look far different. Probably Greece without the ATMs.

Fianna Fail are playing the red scare card earlier than normal this yaer...

Last time hardline republican soclialists were in was the Rainbow Coalition in the 1990's and they handed FF the peace process, lower corporate tax rates and a Celtic Tiger without a housing bubble.

Its a risk I'm willing to take.

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

F
Last time hardline republican soclialists were in was the Rainbow Coalition

I was talking specifically about SF and the United Left Alliance with their fruitcake membership like a bag of liquorice allsorts... a who's who of left wing nutjobs.

Labour might be red, but they're not really socialists, they're not even hardline. They're mostly just Bleh.

Edit: btw i'm not voting FF in this election

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

A country under... socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category

Yeah, quick, get the free-market capitalists back in, they are nearing their target of half a million unemployed by the day, it would be kind of rude not to let them reach that target!

Eliot Rosewater

Denerick wrote: »

FG has its fair share of gombeen men too.

I don't doubt that there are gombeen elements in FG. However the statement I was responding to was "FG are just as bad as FF". I don't see any compelling evidence for such a broad statement.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

Yeah, quick, get the free-market capitalists back in, they are nearing their target of half a million unemployed by the day, it would be kind of rude not to let them reach that target!

Well, if the government hadn't distorted market signals by feeding a housing boom then many of the people currently unemployed would have different professions. Yes, yes, the evil capitalists.

Anyway, Sinn Fein and the Hard Left have no alternative. Don't cut spending and kick the IMF out. Then what? As later10 said, stuff like ATMs working are things we take for granted. Were economic lunacy to govern the Ministry of Finance who knows what will happen. It just doesn't make sense.

One thing I can predict: if there is a ULA/Sinn Fein/Labour government I will be definitely emigrating. There's no point living in a country that doesn't reward hard work.

Oasis_Dublin

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Well, if the government hadn't distorted market signals by feeding a housing boom then many of the people currently unemployed would have different professions. Yes, yes, the evil capitalists.

... and the slowdown that began in 2002 would never have ended. It would have been a softer recession, but a recession none the less.

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

One thing I can predict: if there is a ULA/Sinn Fein/Labour government I will be definitely emigrating. There's no point living in a country that doesn't reward hard work.

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists? Labour in Britain is on the left (admittedly not so much after the Third Way), Scandinavia has a history of leftist governments and I think we both know which of the 3 countries has the worst provision of services!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists?

A party with a recent history of communicating by burying innocent people in bogland does not generally make clear such calibrated political or economic tunings.

Eliot Rosewater

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

... and the slowdown that began in 2002 would never have ended. It would have been a softer recession, but a recession none the less.

Perhaps, but even so, not as many people would have gone into the building trade. There were distorted market signals: there was an impression that one could become a bricklayer and be employed constantly. This impression was a direct result of government policy of feeding the housing sector. If it weren't for those distortions, less people would have become bricklayers, and those people would be less likely to be unemployed now.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm not voting for Sinn Féin but I thought they were socialists, not communists? Labour in Britain is on the left (admittedly not so much after the Third Way), Scandinavia has a history of leftist governments and I think we both know which of the 3 countries has the worst provision of services!

I'm judging Sinn Fein and the ULA on their own merits, not some claim they may stake over Scandinavia. They don't want to reduce spending, and they want to kick out the IMF. I can only see tears coming from that.

I'm a college student, and I work hard at what I do. I willing to put a lot of effort into things. When I graduate, I want that effort to be rewarded. I do not want to pay 60% (70%?) tax to pay for dubious entitlement programs and inefficient services. There is a certain amount I'm willing to tolerate, of course. But a Hard Left government is one which does not reward hard work.

Oasis_Dublin

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Perhaps, but even so, not as many people would have gone into the building trade. There were distorted market signals: there was an impression that one could become a bricklayer and be employed constantly. This impression was a direct result of government policy of feeding the housing sector. If it weren't for those distortions, less people would have become bricklayers, and those people would be less likely to be unemployed now.



I'm judging Sinn Fein and the ULA on their own merits, not some claim they may stake over Scandinavia. They don't want to reduce spending, and they want to kick out the IMF. I can only see tears coming from that.

I'm a college student, and I work hard at what I do. I willing to put a lot of effort into things. When I graduate, I want that effort to be rewarded. I do not want to pay 60% (70%?) tax to pay for dubious entitlement programs and inefficient services. There is a certain amount I'm willing to tolerate, of course. But a Hard Left government is one which does not reward hard work.

Without attempting to sounds pretentious, the bricklayers aren't exactly the most highly skilled people in the world. They more than likely would be unemployed in a recession.

I don't know if Sinn Féin makes any claim to being similar to Scandinavian Socialists. I merely pointed out that Britain and Denmark have far better service provision than little old Ireland and they have had leftish governments.

I'm a University student and I work extremely hard at what I do. I don't want my hard earned tax money going to some FF minister who will spend it on electronic voting machines or a private jet. There is a certain amount of right-wing free market economics than I'm willing to take but a hard right government only rewards a minority.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

A party with a recent history of communicating by burying innocent people in bogland does not generally make clear such calibrated political or economic tunings.

Communicating? I do like how people forget that there are nearly half a million people unemployed in Ireland. Still, let's stick to completely right-wing free market politics, as long as the politicians can afford to live happy then we better all be happy.

Eliot Rosewater

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

Without attempting to sounds pretentious, the bricklayers aren't exactly the most highly skilled people in the world. They more than likely would be unemployed in a recession.

The point I was making is that they could be better skilled if not for distorted market signals.

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I'm a University student and I work extremely hard at what I do. I don't want my hard earned tax money going to some FF minister who will spend it on electronic voting machines or a private jet.

E-Voting: €54.6 million once off.
Social welfare: €18+ billion per year.

It's clear which one you should be focusing on if looking to reduce government spending.

Anyway, I think we're off-topic here. I predict that Denerick will be unhappy with the result!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

I do like how people forget that there are nearly half a million people unemployed in Ireland.

Why would they forget it when it isn't actually the case? There are in the region of 280,000 people unemployed. That's closer to 100,000 than 500,000.

But of course if anyone said there are almost 100,000 people unemployed they'd (quite rightly) have their head bitten off on this forum.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

Why would they forget it when it isn't actually the case? There are in the region of 280,000 people unemployed. That's closer to 100,000 than 500,000.

But of course if anyone said there are almost 100,000 people unemployed they'd (quite rightly) have their head bitten off on this forum.

440,000 people without a job. Don't be getting hung up on semantics!

later12

Oasis_Dublin wrote: »

440,000 people without a job. Don't be getting hung up on semantics!

It's not semantics. The figure you quote includes many people with jobs, including seasonal workers, part time workers and students.

The unemployment figure is nowhere near that. It isn't semantics, it's clear fact.

Wolfe Tone

Denerick wrote: »

Thanks for reminding me why I hold the people of this island in such low esteem.

In fairness if you hate everyone here so much, you are well capable of getting the boat rather than coming on and complaining about how your peers are retards.

tweedledee

Later 10 are you for real???very naive.
Sadly for everybody too many young people have gone overseas,most people under 25 dont bother to vote.FF love this as their main target is middle aged upwards,and preferably those who watch RTE all the time,not evil cable TV.FF will do a lot better than many think because of the lack of young voters in this country,but it will be FG/Lab for sure.How long that will last is anybodies guess.

later12

tweedledee wrote: »

Later 10 are you for real???very naive.

Sorry to disappoint you but the 280,000 figure is the real Irish unemployment figure.
That's terrible. However, it isn't 500,000. 500,000 includes, among others, those with jobs.

irishh_bob

Fo Real wrote: »

I, for one, welcome the EU/IMF financial bailout and would be delighted if Ireland was relegated to just a tiny province on the peripheral edge of the United States of Europe.

We've lived up to our caricatures in the 1800s Punch magazine and proved we're incapable of governing ourselves. Thankfully, our economic soverignty has already been handed over to the more responsible Germans, making it difficult for us to waste more money on ugly one-off housing in scenic areas and paying outrageous wages to middle aged paper pushers in the civil service.

I believe the Paddy can be civilised, but it will take time. We must educate him on the benefits of living in densely populated urban areas as opposed to his bungalow hidden somewhere in the urban sprawl of a generic, faceless "new-town" in the midlands. He must be acquainted with the sophistication of European café culture rater than guzzling pint after pint in the dark corner of the manky village watering hole. Finally, Paddy has to learn to be an entrepreneur and make a living for himself, instead of wasting away on the dole complaining that the government won't give him a job. The MNCs aren't coming back. Stop relying on the Yanks and Japs for employment.

Face it. You're not grown-up enough to be independent. That's why you will come crawling back to FF.

snobbiest post ive ever read on boards , i assume its tongue in cheek

Fo Real

irishh_bob wrote: »

snobbiest post ive ever read on boards , i assume its tongue in cheek

Does my post hit a little too close to home? Feel free to point out the inaccuracies.

I suggest you have a read of this excellent, well-informed thread on one-off housing in Ireland and the damage it is doing to the environment and local communities. This disaster can partly be attributed to gombeen TDs doing their constituents "a favour" and helping them get planning permission for a 2 storey house on the side of a mountain.

Regarding the Irish's drinking habits...well, I don't really need to elaborate. Have a glance at the graph here and tell me which contry consumes the most litres of alcohol per capita. The fact is the Italians or French are more inclined to share a social bottle of wine over dinner with friends whereas lonely Paddy drinks himself into oblivion because he is an idiot.

Regarding my final point - can you tell me what Ireland actually produces (if anything)? Major employers, such as Intel, are foreign owned and I expect them to pack up and move within a few years to a more developed country like China with an educated labour force and decent public transport links. Major Irish owned companies, like Dunnes Stores, aren't providing a service or product that already isn't being provided in this country. Personally I shop in the foreign owned Tescos or Lidl because they're cheaper.

Ryanair is one welcome exception to the rule. An Irish company making its mark in Europe. Yet the Irish will chastise Michael O'Leary because he is successful and talks sense. Get that man into government. He wouldn't have wasted millions of our taxes on a second airport terminal that isn't needed.

mikemac

Fo Real wrote: »

Regarding my final point - can you tell me what Ireland actually produces (if anything)?

Kerry Group started as a co-op and is now a corporation traded on the London Stock Exchange.
Glenisk was a small family creamery in Offaly and has multiple products in every Tesco in Ireland and has investment from corporate giant Danone.

Enfer is in Tipperary and develops and sells diagnostic equipment for vets across Europe

Agri business is a big employer in Ireland.

Elan is a worldwide brand and is famous though some say infamous for Tysabri , big plant outside Athlone

These are all success stories and get overlooked and you can only mention Ryanair?

Fo Real

feelingstressed wrote: »

Kerry Group started as a co-op and is now a corporation traded on the London Stock Exchange.

The company employs 20,000 people across Europe, Asia, Australia, North and South America and New Zealand. How many of these translate into Irish job, I don't know. Perhaps you can give me some figures? source

Glenisk was a small family creamery in Offaly and has multiple products in every Tesco in Ireland and has investment from corporate giant Danone.

Glenisk is a small family business. Hardly a major employer. source

Enfer is in Tipperary and develops and sells diagnostic equipment for vets across Europe

I was unable to find how many people Enfer employ.

Agri business is a big employer in Ireland.

You mean we have a lot of farmers. Which puts us on a par with 1920s China.

Elan is a worldwide brand and is famous though some say infamous for Tysabri , big plant outside Athlone

Elan has 3 plants in the USA while only 2 in Ireland. The company employs 1300 people worldwide, most of which are in America. source

While some of these companies are successful, they are not major employers in Ireland. Irish businesses aren't providing enough jobs for the population. Hence why floods of graduates are emigrating every year to more developed countries.

OhNoYouDidn't

later10 wrote: »

I was talking specifically about SF and the United Left Alliance with their fruitcake membership like a bag of liquorice allsorts... a who's who of left wing nutjobs.

Labour might be red, but they're not really socialists, they're not even hardline. They're mostly just Bleh.

Edit: btw i'm not voting FF in this election

And I was talking about Democratic Left, and at the time FF came out with the same tired nonsense. In fact, DL were very sane and implemented more good policies than FF have in 15 years.

I'd take the integrity of a 'left wing nut-job' over FF at the moment. As I say, things cannot get any worse.

Eliot Rosewater

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

I'd take the integrity of a 'left wing nut-job' over FF at the moment. As I say, things cannot get any worse.

Of course they could get worse! It's disingenuous to suggest that FF have driven this country as low as it can be driven. We have a 13% unemployment rate, there's room there for expansion. We still (to keep up with later10) have functioning ATMs, and a lot of retailers are still operating. If we decide not to cut spending and kick the IMF out (as per Sinn Fein) things will get a lot worse than they are now.

OhNoYouDidn't

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Of course they could get worse! It's disingenuous to suggest that FF have driven this country as low as it can be driven. We have a 13% unemployment rate, there's room there for expansion. We still (to keep up with later10) have functioning ATMs, and a lot of retailers are still operating. If we decide not to cut spending and kick the IMF out (as per Sinn Fein) things will get a lot worse than they are now.

How? Cut the red scare nonsense about shops closing and ATM's. In tangible terms, how can a Lab/SF/ULA alliance do anything that could deflate the economy any more than FF have done by socialising private debt?

If the best the right have in this election is scaremongering, its a pathetic indictment of where FF and FG are these days.

The last time we had socialist republicans in power, they did a very good job.

irishh_bob

Fo Real wrote: »

Does my post hit a little too close to home? Feel free to point out the inaccuracies.

I suggest you have a read of this excellent, well-informed thread on one-off housing in Ireland and the damage it is doing to the environment and local communities. This disaster can partly be attributed to gombeen TDs doing their constituents "a favour" and helping them get planning permission for a 2 storey house on the side of a mountain.

Regarding the Irish's drinking habits...well, I don't really need to elaborate. Have a glance at the graph here and tell me which contry consumes the most litres of alcohol per capita. The fact is the Italians or French are more inclined to share a social bottle of wine over dinner with friends whereas lonely Paddy drinks himself into oblivion because he is an idiot.

Regarding my final point - can you tell me what Ireland actually produces (if anything)? Major employers, such as Intel, are foreign owned and I expect them to pack up and move within a few years to a more developed country like China with an educated labour force and decent public transport links. Major Irish owned companies, like Dunnes Stores, aren't providing a service or product that already isn't being provided in this country. Personally I shop in the foreign owned Tescos or Lidl because they're cheaper.

Ryanair is one welcome exception to the rule. An Irish company making its mark in Europe. Yet the Irish will chastise Michael O'Leary because he is successful and talks sense. Get that man into government. He wouldn't have wasted millions of our taxes on a second airport terminal that isn't needed.

its the tone of your posts which are snobby and condescending i might add