Predict the Election

The Volt

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

How? Cut the red scare nonsense about shops closing and ATM's. In tangible terms, how can a Lab/SF/ULA alliance do anything that could deflate the economy any more than FF have done by socialising private debt?

If the best the right have in this election is scaremongering, its a pathetic indictment of where FF and FG are these days.

The last time we had socialist republicans in power, they did a very good job.

Here here

Spearbearer

Denerick wrote: »

I'd say FF will get around 30% of the vote, FG will get around 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, with SF and the others picking up the rest. Kenny as Taoiseach, with Rabbite as Finance Minister (if Gilmore had any decency at all he wouldn't let Burton anywhere near the ministry) The new coalition will all end in tears and general election 2012 will see FF return to power as the Irish people revert to form and elect the typical gombeen men who have so faithfully served their pathetic, petty narrow sectional interests for so long.

Although FFs poll numbers are poor, bear in mind that when the 'lads' return to constituencies they'll remind their neighbours how many funerals they went to in the last 5 years and how many filthy bogman hands they shaked also.

FG top in the 65 - 70 range. FF and Labour neck in neck from 35 - 40. SF 10 - 15.

later12

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

How? Cut the red scare nonsense about shops closing and ATM's. In tangible terms, how can a Lab/SF/ULA alliance do anything that could deflate the economy any more than FF have done by socialising private debt?

By refusing to pay senior bondholders, reneging on sovereign debt or by kicking out the IMF, all of these things have been suggested in some form or another.

Don't be so sure about the ATMs. In economic terms this is called suspension of convertibility and it was practiced in Uruguay and Argentina a few years ago to prevent bank runs.

Spearbearer

The last thing this country needs is a ragbag coalition of Labour-SF-ULA-INDS. The country will run out of money by the summer if this crowd have their way.
This would mean chaos and such a government would be quickly overthrown in a violent revolution.

Het-Field

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

And I was talking about Democratic Left, and at the time FF came out with the same tired nonsense. In fact, DL were very sane and implemented more good policies than FF have in 15 years.

I'd take the integrity of a 'left wing nut-job' over FF at the moment. As I say, things cannot get any worse.

Give me 5 policies which Democratic Left implemented which were positive for this Island. Im talking about 5 policies which DL created and implemented which were useful for this nation. Im not talking about policies which Labour and FG created and implemented.

Fo Real

irishh_bob wrote: »

its the tone of your posts which are snobby and condescending i might add

Again, you fail to address or contest any of my specific points or my replies. You know everything I've said is true. Why do you bother posting here if all you have to contribute is cheap one-liners and thinly veiled insults?

The Volt

Spearbearer wrote: »

The last thing this country needs is a ragbag coalition of Labour-SF-ULA-INDS. The country will run out of money by the summer if this crowd have their way.
This would mean chaos and such a government would be quickly overthrown in a violent revolution.

I really don't ever expect to see Labour form any form of alliance with the ULA. One with the Shinners however I think they need to seriously consider.

Black Swan

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Eliot Rosewater

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

How?

Okay, so we'll take Sinn Fein and the Left at face value. They don't want cuts and they want to kick out the IMF. Grand. So, we're looking a enormous tax increases to pay for the deficit, which is going to get even bigger when we have to go to the markets to get money. Or, they might default.

Either way, economic sanity will catch up eventually and the spending programs will have to be slashed due to the ever widening deficit and general inability of the government to pay for things. Tax increases will force many SMEs over the edge; they will simply close up shop if it's not worth the money. Not only will the entrepreneurs lose their jobs, but the people they employ will too, putting more people on the dole line.

You could be looking at a severe reduction in both private services (due to lack of monetary incentives) and public services (due to the eventual slashing).

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

Cut the red scare nonsense about shops closing and ATM's. In tangible terms, how can a Lab/SF/ULA alliance do anything that could deflate the economy any more than FF have done by socialising private debt?

"Socialising private debt" is the small picutre. What's it going to cost - €100 billion altogether (assuming no returns)? Current government spending is about €40 billion per annum average. Over a 10-year period (think ahead the fallout should have told us) that is €400 billion vs €100 billion.

They're both enormous sums, however it's clear which one is going to pose a greater fiscal challenge. Government spending is the elephant in the room.

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

If the best the right have in this election is scaremongering, its a pathetic indictment of where FF and FG are these days.

FF ballooned government spending during the boom, and championed interventions into the economy that have proven disastrous (example, feeding the housing boom). This suggestion that they are Right-wingers is laughable.

NWPat

later10 wrote: »

Sorry to disappoint you but the 280,000 figure is the real Irish unemployment figure.
That's terrible. However, it isn't 500,000. 500,000 includes, among others, those with jobs.

The figure of 280,000 is not the "real" figure but the official figure. It is based on the Quarterly National Household Survey which surveys 39,000 households. It is therefore an estimate and in the opinion of many not a very accurate one. The only "real" data available is the live register which, as published by the CSO on December 1st, gives an unajusted figure of 425,002. While this figure must include some who are underemployed I wonder if these would number over 145,000. The real information would be easy enough to obtain but perhaps it suits governments to use low estimates rather than reality.

ghostdancer

later10 wrote: »

Yes. When you go to bed tonight in Ireland you know that in the morning your ATM card will work, the bus will be late, the shops will be full and there will be people drinking double espresso skinny lattes with organic soya milk (fair trade) in cafés, or having dinner in restaurants, or just going about their daily business.

A country under hardline republicans, socialists and general crazies who dropped out of college because their economics lecturer was the oppressor that were to craaazy to fit into any other category apart from the Eva Morales Appreciation Society or the People Before Profit , would look far different. Probably Greece without the ATMs.

yes, because SF being in power in NI has lead to this exact scenario.

christ almighty.

i sort of hope SF are in power after this election, as when the people who believe the above nonsense emigrate (not that they actually will), it would take quite a bit of stupidity out of the Irish electorate.

Pherekydes

I predict that the Minister for Finance will refuse to fund the election, so it will be postponed until 2012.

Oasis_Dublin

later10 wrote: »

It's not semantics. The figure you quote includes many people with jobs, including seasonal workers, part time workers and students.

The unemployment figure is nowhere near that. It isn't semantics, it's clear fact.

Seasonal works?! Christmas employment is some use in July isn't it?! Selling programmes in Croke Park is a useful job to have come October!