2nd Harsh Winter in a Row - Sign of Things To Come?

cson

Or is it just a freak occurrence?

I'm interested to see what weather experts here think - are such harsh winters going to become common or is it just we're in the midst of a weather anomaly? This is far from mild temperate we all learned about in school; these temperatures are more at home in winter time Chicago!

Time to start preparing the house for the colder months in terms of pipe insulation; heating etc or overreaction?

Bruthal

cson wrote: »

Or is it just a freak occurrence?

I'm interested to see what weather experts here think - are such harsh winters going to become common or is it just we're in the midst of a weather anomaly? This is far from mild temperate we all learned about in school; these temperatures are more at home in winter time Chicago!

Time to start preparing the house for the colder months in terms of pipe insulation; heating etc or overreaction?

Its no harm doing as much as possible to prevent all the frozen pipes etc everyone is having this year from happening again.

One theory it that is could be a Dalton Minimum type event, still to early to really know for sure.

Good thread here on it.

Min

This is the third cold winter here, 2008/2009 was colder than previous recent winter upto that point with a lot more snow and lower temperatures.
Then last winter just kept that pattern going but intensified it with a repeat of that intensification process so far this winter.

Recently in the past few years the sun has become concerned with it's appearance and seems to be working to keep it's spotty face far less spotty than normal.

gbee

wrote:

Time to start preparing the house for the colder months in terms of pipe insulation; heating etc or overreaction?

well, in time of Global Warming nonsense, Council's were installing Gas heating, new doors and Double Glased windows.

They were not just conforming to an EU directive.

mike65

Min wrote: »

This is the third cold winter here, 2008/2009 was colder than previous recent winter upto that point with a lot more snow and lower temperatures.
Then last winter just kept that pattern going but intensified it with a repeat of that intensification process so far this winter.

Recently in the past few years the sun has become concerned with it's appearance and seems to be working to keep it's spotty face far less spotty than normal.

Indeed this tends to be overlooked in the wake of last winter.

Some will have you believe we are heading for a decade or more of this. I'll suggest not, and that this winter will see the peak of this cold period as the La Nina turns towards El Nino and the sunspot activity gradually picks up this year and next year.

rccaulfield

gbee wrote: »

well, in time of Global Warming nonsense,

Wa? We are in time of Global warming! Just cos a little island has a bit of a cold spell that doesn't change global statistics, please!

Bruthal

rccaulfield wrote: »

Wa? We are in time of Global warming! Just cos a little island has a bit of a cold spell that doesn't change global statistics, please!

Yes true, although even if global warming is happening beyond a doubt, its only a tiny blip in the earths time, even if its a big blip to us.

nacho libre

sunspot activity will pick up but we shouldn't let our personal preferences cloud the fact that there is a lag period involved, in other words it will take three or four more years for this increased activity to have an effect. so we could have three - fours years of cold- very cold winters to come.

irishh_bob

cson wrote: »

Or is it just a freak occurrence?

I'm interested to see what weather experts here think - are such harsh winters going to become common or is it just we're in the midst of a weather anomaly? This is far from mild temperate we all learned about in school; these temperatures are more at home in winter time Chicago!

Time to start preparing the house for the colder months in terms of pipe insulation; heating etc or overreaction?

its actually the 3rd harsh winter in a row , while 2008 - 2009 was mild compared to the last two winters , thier was a full month of frost from the end of november untill xmas , nothing like the frost this past month but much colder than the previous decade

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

sunspot activity will pick up but we shouldn't let our personal preferences cloud the fact that there is a lag period involved, in other words it will take three or four more years for this increased activity to have an effect. so we could have three - fours years of cold- very cold winters to come.

Not only would it need to pick up, it would need to be above average for quite a while to restore the temperatures.

It's really the unstable magnetic energy of the sun rather than the direct irradiance that affects the global climate.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Indeed this tends to be overlooked in the wake of last winter.

Some will have you believe we are heading for a decade or more of this. I'll suggest not, and that this winter will see the peak of this cold period as the La Nina turns towards El Nino and the sunspot activity gradually picks up this year and next year.

That chart looks even more interesting if it shows actual variations rather than changes relative to "standardized departure".
Should note that we had quite a few cold winters between 1945 & 1980, and the odd one either side of those dates.

mike65

:mad: I'm ignoring that red line!

Discodog

Clearly the advisers to Gatwick Airport think so as they have just spent a fortune on specialist snow clearing machines.

Mods: How about we make all the forecasters here really stick their necks out & give a prediction for next Winter. Then we could resurrect the Poll/thread as see who got it right.

Discodog

Discodog wrote: »

Clearly the advisers to Gatwick Airport think so as they have just spent a fortune on specialist snow clearing machines.

Mods: How about we make all the forecasters here really stick their necks out & give a prediction for next Winter. Then we could resurrect the Poll/thread as see who got it right.

If the mods don't, I'm sure someone else would bump it if it suits.

My prediction is that next year is likely to be like last year, with at least one spell (more than two weeks) of subzero temperatures.

Lirange

A major hole in the sunspot theory is that other areas of the northern hemisphere this winter and the last few winters have seen normal or above normal temperatures. So I'm inclined to believe this recent phenomenon is more localised to the northeast Atlantic. It may be more related to a slight weakening of the Gulf Stream.

Redsunset

E

Lirange wrote: »

A major hole in the sunspot theory is that other areas of the northern hemisphere this winter and the last few winters have seen normal or above normal temperatures. So I'm inclined to believe this recent phenomenon is more localised to the northeast Atlantic. It may be more related to a slight weakening of the Gulf Stream.

That answer is covered in the sun is dead thread

thetonynator

Discodog wrote: »

Clearly the advisers to Gatwick Airport think so as they have just spent a fortune on specialist snow clearing machines.

Mods: How about we make all the forecasters here really stick their necks out & give a prediction for next Winter. Then we could resurrect the Poll/thread as see who got it right.

I don't think anyone will be made make a forecast at any point on here!!

Brute75

Parts of south Sweden have had there coldest end to November and all of December in 150 years, Stockholm had its coldest January in 180 years last winter, seems like its getting warmer to me.
Low solar activity + the cold PDO is more than likely the cause, we havent had the decent volcanic eruption yet that will make it really cold.
Its kinda funny watching you guys struggle in the snow from this part of the world, maybe a little bit of that huge amount of money spent on studying global warming should have been spent on the simple things to deal with a flurry or two.

rccaulfield

rccaulfield wrote: »

Wa? We are in time of Global warming! Just cos a little island has a bit of a cold spell that doesn't change global statistics, please!

true but its snowed in the Australian summer & the balmy US Deep South had a white christmas too

its good to always question things

thetonynator

Deleted User wrote: »

true but its snowed in the Australian summer & the balmy US Deep South had a white christmas too

its good to always question things

But western canada has a very mild winter so far, and russia had the biggest heatwave ever this summer.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

But western canada has a very mild winter so far, and russia had the biggest heatwave ever this summer.

so then we shouldnt question anything?

thetonynator

Deleted User wrote: »

so then we shouldnt question anything?

We should wait until official figures from met offices around the world are compiled and released for this year.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

But western canada has a very mild winter so far, and russia had the biggest heatwave ever this summer.

For every weather pattern, if somewhere is unusally warm, somewhere else is unusually cold. The thermal energy doesn't just appear or disappear, any changes in global thermal energy levels will be slow, very slow. The weather on the other hand is very sensitive to these changes.

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

We should wait until official figures from met offices around the world are compiled and released for this year.

We should still question that!
For example Casement was 0c the other night around 1am while less that 3 miles away it was -9c. Its not the first time Casements readings have been questioned here.

Many of the weather stations aroudn the world have found themseleves urbanised and the urban heat island effect is impacting on the readings.....it may even be jet wash from helicopters thats altering the readings in Casement.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056101408

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69734448&postcount=11834

Min

Scientists don't know but are guessing any rise in temperature is due to Carbon, in the past the Earth had CO2 to levels of over 2,000 parts per million, todays figure is around 385 parts per million, over 2,000 ppm didn't lead to an out of control greenhouse effect.
Some of the people who say this and that is evidence of man made climate change and CO2 being the cause are an insult to science.

Min

Min wrote: »

Scientists don't know but are guessing any rise in temperature is due to Carbon, in the past the Earth had CO2 to levels of over 2,000 parts per million, todays figure is around 385 parts per million, over 2,000 ppm didn't lead to an out of control greenhouse effect.
Some of the people who say this and that is evidence of man made climate change and CO2 being the cause are an insult to science.

So many got a free ride on the last positive PDO and high solar activity they cold have pinned the warming on to almost anything! It's easy to select one item and place the blame on it (aka scapegoat).

Another reason for the rise in CO2 is the destruction of "carbon sinks" forests and desertification in other words, that point seldom gets mentioned.

lawhec

Deleted User wrote: »

true but its snowed in the Australian summer & the balmy US Deep South had a white christmas too

its good to always question things

The recent snowfall in Australia hasn't been a very recent extraordinary event. I was in the country two years ago and a major snowfall occurred in the Blue Mountains outside Sydney in early December, enough to allow skiing for a day or two. On Christmas Day 2006 Mt. Danedong in Melbourne had snowfall giving the city a bizarre White Christmas.

My Australian cousins who live in both cities tell me that especially around the Snowy Mountains area, snowfall can occur at any time of year, whereas here in Ireland, snow falling in June, July or August is pretty much unheard of.

Lirange

thetonynator wrote: »

But western canada has a very mild winter so far, and russia had the biggest heatwave ever this summer.

True. Despite the recent blizzards most of North America has been milder than normal so far this winter. The Eastern seaboard actually is more susceptible to massive snow events in warmer winters. They get a Nor' Easter effect in mid winter months rather than October/November which results in large snowfalls. This is because the Gulf and Atlantic ocean tend to help produce stronger storms with more energy available. Whilst they make be getting snowstorms they are not seeing the historically low temperatures like Northwestern Europe.

The Eastern Mediterranean and Southwest Asia are having a very warm winter. Greece had one of the warmest Decembers on record. Moscow experienced temperatures well above freezing causing snowmelt in December.

lawhec

lawhec wrote: »

The recent snowfall in Australia hasn't been a very recent extraordinary event. I was in the country two years ago and a major snowfall occurred in the Blue Mountains outside Sydney in early December, enough to allow skiing for a day or two. On Christmas Day 2006 Mt. Danedong in Melbourne had snowfall giving the city a bizarre White Christmas.

My Australian cousins who live in both cities tell me that especially around the Snowy Mountains area, snowfall can occur at any time of year, whereas here in Ireland, snow falling in June, July or August is pretty much unheard of.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/7863227/Australians-shiver-through-coldest-winter-morning-in-30-years.html

They also had their coldest winter in 30 years