January 2011 forecast contest

waterways

1.7 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.2 ..... 83 ..... 123 ..... 7

Who is the one with 0 at the end? Of course I'm talking about the snow.

M.T. Cranium

I can't edit the first post, but have mentioned in the Dec 2010 thread that a slight change to the "mercy rule" or minimum scoring progression will be needed because of our larger field of entrants. The old rule was giving about one-third of contestants a score in unusual situations. Now we will have more like half getting a score ...

These will be the minimum progressions (you can score more in some situations but nobody would score less than their rank order suggests here):

"the minimum scoring rule is also supposed to even out the months so that it doesn't matter as much which two you miss or score low. For that reason, I am going to add two scores to the progressions, so that they will go like this (as a minimum) ..."

out of 25 .... 23, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8 etc
out of 20 .... 18, 15, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 etc
out of 15 .... 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, etc (this for precip)
out of 10 .... same as before but two scores each, starting with 9 etc. (this for sunshine, the bonus questions will always be scored on rank order with a minimum of two-thirds of entrants qualifying for points).

---

My forecast follows:

1.5 ..... 13.3 ..... -14.0 ..... 090 ..... 160 ..... 18

Group photo:

:D:p:);):o:):mad::(:p:cool::eek::P:confused:

nilhg

2.8C ..... 11.1C ..... -9.9C ..... 78% ..... 119% ..... 6CM

4Sheets

MEAN 5.4
MAX 11.7
MIN -9.8
PREC 94%
SUN 92%
SNOW 5cm

Its starting off tame enough hope Im wrong:D

Tae laidir

3.7 ..... 11.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 124 ..... 89..... 2.0

DOCARCH

2.1 ..... 13.8 ..... -12.8 ..... 93% ..... 118% ..... 17cm

John mac

3.8..... 13.4..... -9.3..... 120 ..... 98..... 2

jambofc

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW
5.2 11.7 -6.8 110% 105% 2cm

Su Campu

3.8.....10.5.....-16.4.....75.....105.....2.5

Rebelbrowser

2.1 ..... 10.6 ..... -12.8 ..... 88 ..... 107 ..... 12

kindredspirit

3.1°C ..... 13.1°C ..... -8°C ..... 73% ..... 115% ..... 9.5cm

Wild Bill

MEAN 2.7 MAX 11.8 MIN -14.7 PREC 83% SUN 115% SNOW 16cm

Speak Now

3.6.....12.9.....-9.....70.....100.....8

Danno

MEAN 4.3..... MAX 11.7 ..... MIN -10.8..... PREC 100%.... SUN 130%..... SNOW 14cm

Sponge Bob

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PREC ..... SUN ..... SNOW
4.8..... 10.8 ...... -10.8.... 86..... 118 .....7cm

steveLFC24

MEAN 2.8 MAX 12.2 MIN -15.6 PREC 93% SUN 110% SNOW 13cm

First shot at this, so not very confident :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Last call for forecasts without penalty ... to midnight ... the penalty will be applied to late entries on the 2nd ... and it is basically a reduction by 10% of scores above 65, with scores 61-65 reduced to 60. This has only actually happened once or twice in about a dozen possible cases anyway, so enter on the 2nd if you wish, probably won't cost you much.

TheInquisitor

2.3C ..... 14C ..... -12C ..... 120% ..... 100% ..... 0cm

Redsunset

1.7 ..... 11 ..... -14 ..... 115 ..... 140 ..... 32

rameire

2.4 ..... 13.9 ..... -14.6 ..... 108 ..... 105 ..... 6cm

might aswell get in even with a penalty.

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts received for January 2011
_______________________________


FORECASTER ........ IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... SNOW
__________________________________________________________

4sheets ............... 5.4 ..... 11.7 ...... -9.8 ..... 094 ..... 092 ..... 5
DeepEasterly ........ 5.3 ..... 12.8 ...... -8.3 ..... 108 ..... 090 ...... 0
jambofc ............... 5.2 ..... 11.7 ...... -6.8 ..... 110 ..... 105 ...... 2
Sponge Bob .......... 4.8 ..... 10.8 ..... -10.8 ..... 086 ..... 118 ...... 7
Strasser .............. 4.7 ..... 13.5 ....... -7.5 ..... 105 ..... 095 ...... 3
WolfeIRE .............. 4.5 ..... 11.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 085 ..... 110 ...... 9
Danno ................. 4.3 ..... 11.7 ..... -10.8 ..... 100 ..... 130 ..... 14
Ahorseofaman ....... 4.1 ..... 12.1 ..... -14.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 30
hellboy99 ............. 4.0 ..... 11.5 ..... -11.0 ..... 109 ..... 115 ...... 8
kuro_man ............. 3.9 ..... 11.2 ...... -9.0 ...... 085 ..... 130 ...... 0
talkabout ............. 3.9 ..... 12.8 ..... -13.5 ..... 105 ..... 095 ..... 19
fionagus ............... 3.9 ..... 10.9 ...... -9.7 ..... 068 ..... 095 ...... 4
Joe Public ............ 3.9 ..... 11.9 ..... -11.9 ..... 099 ..... 099 ..... 12.9
SeaFields.............. 3.9 ..... 12.5 ..... -12.8 ..... 080 ..... 100 ...... 4
Su Campu ............ 3.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -16.4 ..... 075 ..... 105 ...... 2.5
John mac ............. 3.8 ..... 13.4 ...... -9.3 ..... 120 ..... 098 ...... 2
Pauldry ................ 3.7 ..... 12.0 ...... -9.0 ..... 109 ..... 110 ..... 10
Tae laidir ............. 3.7 ..... 11.1 ...... -7.0 ..... 124 ..... 089 ...... 2.0
Jerry Seinfeld ........ 3.6 ..... 12.9 ...... -9.0 ..... 070 ..... 100 ...... 8
cherryghost .......... 3.5 ..... 14.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 115 ..... 125 ...... 5
Beasterly ............. 3.4 ..... 12.9 ...... -8.5 ..... 105 ..... 140 ..... 10
Caesar Augustus ... 3.4 ..... 12.8 ...... -8.8 ..... 080 ..... 150 ..... 11
dacogawa ............ 3.2 ..... 12.2 ..... -13.0 ..... 119 ..... 093 ..... 14
H2UMrsRobinson .... 3.2 ..... 13.1 ..... -14.5 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... 12

Con Sensus .......... 3.1 ..... 11.9 ..... -11.1 ..... 090 ..... 111 ...... 10

nacho libre ........... 3.1 ..... 13.5 ..... -10.3 ..... 105 ..... 135 ..... 10
kindredspirit .......... 3.1 ..... 13.1 ...... -8.0 ..... 073 ..... 115 ...... 9.5
Harps .................. 3.1 ..... 11.8 ..... -11.5 ..... 085 ..... 130 ..... 12
mickger844posts .... 3.1 ..... 11.9 ...... -9.2 ..... 077 ..... 089 ...... 5
Brenireland ........... 3.1 ..... 13.5 ..... -10.3 ..... 105 ..... 135 ...... 5
roryc1 ................. 3.0 ..... 11.5 ..... -10.0 ..... 090 ..... 120 ..... 15
nilhg .................... 2.8 ..... 11.1 ...... -9.9 ..... 078 ..... 119 ...... 6
steveLFC24 .......... 2.8 ..... 12.2 ..... -15.6 ..... 093 ..... 110 ..... 13
Wild Bill ................ 2.7 ..... 11.8 ..... -14.7 ..... 083 ..... 115 ..... 16
jd ....................... 2.7 ..... 10.8 ..... -11.1 ..... 101 ..... 112 ..... 11
Aquals ................. 2.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -16.0 ..... 085 ..... 124 ..... 16
rameire*............... 2.4 ..... 13.9 ..... -14.6 ..... 108 ..... 105 ...... 6
TheInquisitor ........ 2.3 ..... 14.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 120 ..... 100 ...... 0
DOCARCH ............. 2.1 ..... 13.8 ..... -12.8 ..... 093 ..... 118 ..... 17
Rebelbrowser ........ 2.1 ..... 10.6 ..... -12.8 ..... 088 ..... 107 ..... 12
200motels ............ 2.1 ..... 11.2 ...... -6.5 ..... 060 ..... 168 ...... 5
homolumo ............ 2.1 ..... 10.1 ..... -12.3 ..... 065 ..... 125 ..... 14
baraca ................ 2.0 ..... 10.5 ..... -14.0 ..... 095 ..... 120 ..... 11
thetonynator ........ 2.0 ..... 11.7 ..... -11.5 ..... 070 ..... 140 ..... 13
dasa29 ................ 1.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -10.0 ..... 085 ..... 115 ..... 30
redsunset ............ 1.7 ..... 11.0 ..... -14.0 ..... 115 ..... 140 ..... 32
waterways ........... 1.7 ..... 11.3 ...... -8.2 ..... 083 ..... 123 ...... 7
fizzycyst ............. 1.5 ..... 12.1 ..... -14.3 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 10
M.T. Cranium ........ 1.5 ..... 13.3 ..... -14.0 ..... 090 ..... 160 ..... 18

---

With the contest now closed, 48 entrants, including about a dozen new players (some of these also from the winter contest), and while I haven't checked, it seems that virtually all our regulars from 2010 have straggled in -- welcome, and enjoy the contest, our monthly consensus looks to be about a degree below normal, somewhat sunny and dry in comparison to normal, and the average expected snowfall at Durrow is 10 cms with a range from zero to 32 cms.

pauldry

Very early doors

But IMT was at 2.9c after 2 days of January.

It probably went down some more after day 3 and will prob go up again on day 4 so around the 3 degree mark by then.

A lot of variations in temperatures this week will keep it changing but just thought Id post this for new people who are eager to see how they are doing so far.

Wild Bill

pauldry wrote: »

Very early doors

But IMT was at 2.9c after 2 days of January.

It probably went down some more after day 3 and will prob go up again on day 4 so around the 3 degree mark by then.

A lot of variations in temperatures this week will keep it changing but just thought Id post this for new people who are eager to see how they are doing so far.

Very early doors

BEASTERLY

Wild Bill wrote: »

Very early doors

Prob one of them strange sayins that northwest folk use.

homolumo

Commonly used phrase 'early doors'...

pauldry

late windows is another we use.
nah, I heard Lawro use it on MOTD when discussin the title race a few weeks back.

On Topic is -5.5c (Claremorris) the Low for the month so far??

pauldry

After 6 days of January IMT was 2.0c

Coldest was Dublin Airport with -6.8c

Some snow fell in inland areas of Leinster and Munster but I dont know how much tbh.

Next week will be mild so IMT and Rainfall will climb and Sunshine will decrease.

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days ...

IMT 1.6 C

precip 45% of normal (most of that fell yesterday)

sunshine 79% of normal

the lowest temperature was -7.0 at Ballyhaise.

the highest so far won't matter, about to be replaced next week.

Deep Easterly

Met Eireann ag map showing deviations from mean average temperatue at main synoptic stations:



around -3.0c below normal overall. For the same period last year (1st to 7th Jan) we were closer to -6.0c below the 61-90 norm.

Deep Easterly

IMT up the 8th on 1.5c which is several degrees below normal. January stats so far:
Highest mean max: Shannon Apt 4.9c / Lowest mean min: Claremorris -2.5c


Chart showing mean max and min values at the 5 met eireann stations used for the IMT for the winter so far (1st Dec 2010 - 8th Jan 2011)



Mullingar coolest station; relatively milder values at Shannon Apt.



A quick look back at this day last year:


A cold NE airlflow over Ireland as daytime temperatures struggled to rise above 0.0c while temperatures plummeted to below -10c in some inland locations towards nightfall!




Data & Image sources:
Met Eireann
Veðurstofa Íslands