UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Gamebred

As a massive BJ fan even I cant bring myself to fancy him here its been about 7 years since he won a fight.

csallmighty

Paddy power only offering match betting and over/under 2.5 rounds. Would like to see what odds are like for Penn by sub. Would like a flutter on that just for the craic.

ASOT

csallmighty wrote: »

Paddy power only offering match betting and over/under 2.5 rounds. Would like to see what odds are like for Penn by sub. Would like a flutter on that just for the craic.

Usually more markets on friday.

Gamebred

Woodley is underdog to Wonderboy again Ill be backing him I think, wasnt in much danger first fight should be favourite.

aloooof

Gamebred wrote: »

Woodley is underdog to Wonderboy again Ill be backing him I think, wasnt in much danger first fight should be favourite.

Really need to watch that again, loved that fight. I think Wonderboy might edge it this time tho, could see him having learned alot from it.

Django99

Bet Victor have markets up for the champs at the end of 2017. Khabib LW champ is 7/4. Jacare MW 15/2. Maia WW 4/1. All of those look good value to me

mailburner

Django99 wrote: »

Bet Victor have markets up for the champs at the end of 2017. Khabib LW champ is 7/4. Jacare MW 15/2. Maia WW 4/1. All of those look good value to me

jacare good value if they don't shaft him, like maia too even more so if wonderboy wins the rematch
I like rumble 5/1 max 3/1
dillashaw 5/2 would be my favourite
they'll also let you do multiple bets on them....saying that they'd have done awful well on this market during 2016

on the flip side fighters I can't see being champ that are poorly priced, some should be double/treble those odds
almeida 8/1
lawler 13/2
weidman 5/1 shocking price
bisbing13/2 wouldnt be the biggest shock in the world if he beat romero and managed to avoid fighting again this year :pac:

conor is 5/2 for featherweight...surely he wont return to that weightclass which leaves aldo or max both at 3/1....surely a safe enough bet backing both at those odds given its unlikely edgar (12s)beats either or pettis for that matter (16s)

itll be interesting to see how the hotpots get on nunes 4/5 and dj 2/5
no competition for dj its fair to say

CurryFlavoured

Gamebred wrote: »

Woodley is underdog to Wonderboy again Ill be backing him I think, wasnt in much danger first fight should be favourite.

It was such a weird fight. Woodley looked way more dangerous but he's so conservative, probably to save energy. Wonderboy dominated most of the striking but still looked like getting dropped on every rare occasion Woodley threw something.

Mellor

Django99 wrote: »

Bet Victor have markets up for the champs at the end of 2017. Khabib LW champ is 7/4. Jacare MW 15/2. Maia WW 4/1. All of those look good value to me

Thought I replied to this already. My picks, as a combo of value and who I actually think will be champ, would be;

Fly: Mighty Mouse...No explanation needed imo
BW: Cruz...Value. Expert tactician, can see him winning if he gets re-shot. If TUF goes ahead will reconsider depending on dates.
FW: Aldo. So underrated since that KO. Won't be surprised if he murders Max.
LW: Conor. Khabib might not get a shot this year.
WW: Maia
MW: Jacare (value), Romero (likely)
LHW: Jones...no one else
HW: Velasquez

Django99

Django99 wrote: »

Bet Victor have markets up for the champs at the end of 2017. Khabib LW champ is 7/4. Jacare MW 15/2. Maia WW 4/1. All of those look good value to me

Khabib wont get a shot in 2017 even if he beats tony :pac:

Django99

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Khabib wont get a shot in 2017 even if he beats tony :pac:

Possibly not, but if he does I think he'll win. If we assume he does, it's basically a double to beat Ferguson and McGregor. And I think 7/4 is great value for that bet.

So even taking into account the possibility he doesn't get the shot this year, I think it's value.

Gamebred

Shocking bet, him and Ferguson will be a pickem and its evens the pair against McGregor.

Django99

Gamebred wrote: »

Shocking bet, him and Ferguson will be a pickem and its evens the pair against McGregor.

Couldn't agree less. I believe Khabib is every bit as good as his record suggests, despite the relatively weak caliber of his opponents. I also think he's striking is under rated. I think it's good enough to get him into a clinch and that's all he needs. He won't even attempt to stand and trade with either of them.

And once it hits the ground, I can't see either ferguson or McGregor causing any problems or even being able to defend for too long. Ferguson won't be getting a Darce choke in nor will McGregor be able to attack with elbows from the bottom.

Gamebred

Django99 wrote: »

Couldn't agree less. I believe Khabib is every bit as good as his record suggests, despite the relatively weak caliber of his opponents. I also think he's striking is under rated. I think it's good enough to get him into a clinch and that's all he needs. He won't even attempt to stand and trade with either of them.

And once it hits the ground, I can't see either ferguson or McGregor causing any problems or even being able to defend for too long. Ferguson won't be getting a Darce choke in nor will McGregor be able to attack with elbows from the bottom.

Im talking about the mathamatics of the bet, your taking 7/4 on that double happening,


At the worst prices now for them individual fights it pays 3.2/1 your taking 2.75, that will probably get bigger too,

Khabib will drift when the money comes for Ferguson it was a pick em fight first time they were due to fight, he will also be bigger than the even money v mcgregors thats currently on offer public will come for Conor and Khabib will drift imo, hence 7/4 being a bad bet to make.

Django99

Gamebred wrote: »

Im talking about the mathamatics of the bet, your taking 7/4 on that double happening,


At the worst prices now for them individual fights it pays 3.2/1 your taking 2.75, that will probably get bigger too,

Khabib will drift when the money comes for Ferguson it was a pick em fight first time they were due to fight, he will also be bigger than the even money v mcgregors thats currently on offer public will come for Conor and Khabib will drift imo, hence 7/4 being a bad bet to make.

Ah sorry my mistake. Do you think Khabib will drift? I'm not sure I think he'll actually shorten. It was a pick em the first time but at the time Khabib was coming back from a long lay off so there was an element of unknown whether he'd be the same. He's come back better than expected.

And again, at the moment he's evens with McGregor but if he beats Ferguson I think that could shorten a bit, maybe to around 1.9/1. Will be interesting to see how it plays out I suppose.

Gamebred

Django99 wrote: »

Ah sorry my mistake. Do you think Khabib will drift? I'm not sure I think he'll actually shorten. It was a pick em the first time but at the time Khabib was coming back from a long lay off so there was an element of unknown whether he'd be the same. He's come back better than expected.

And again, at the moment he's evens with McGregor but if he beats Ferguson I think that could shorten a bit, maybe to around 1.9/1. Will be interesting to see how it plays out I suppose.

Yeah I'd sooner take a chance just punt him v Ferguson the roll it onto the McGregor match up bet, double wont pay less than 6/4 that way at very worse and you get your money back if the fight doesnt happen by the end of the year, dont get it back the other way,

I dont think Conor will fight either this year its GSP or Woodley imo.

Django99

Gamebred wrote: »

Yeah I'd sooner take a chance just punt him v Ferguson the roll it onto the McGregor match up bet, double wont pay less than 6/4 that way at very worse and you get your money back if the fight doesnt happen by the end of the year, dont get it back the other way,

I dont think Conor will fight either this year its GSP or Woodley imo.

Good shout I suppose especially with the possibility of no title fight this year.

Mellor

Django99 wrote: »

it's basically a double to beat Ferguson and McGregor. And I think 7/4 is great value for that bet.

I'm with Gamebred, that's a terrible price for the double. Even before you consider the second fight might not happen.

You can do the double right now with PP and get 2/1 based on current Khabib v Conor prices.
That also includes an insurance element. If the fight doesn't happen you'll get paid out (8/15) on the first as a single.

Clearly a much better bet
OTE=Gamebred;102332680]
At the worst prices now for them individual fights it pays 3.2/1 your taking 2.75, that will probably get bigger too,
[/QUOTE]
I assume you means 3.2 not 3.2/1.
I was able to get it as high as 3.4 but with two different bookies. Once Stan James price up Khabib v Tony, they'll be the best price on it

eddie73

Kahvib, McGregor and fergeson are all emotional bets it is a no go for a serious gambler.

billybonkers

Cerrone and Shevchenco double this weekend

Mellor

eddie73 wrote: »

Kahvib, McGregor and fergeson are all emotional bets it is a no go for a serious gambler.

How so?

There's almost nobody else it could be. Assigning an objective win % to each match, and then you have odds of each to get the belt. Pretty easy to spot the value. No emotions involved. Just basic gambling theory.

CurryFlavoured

Think I'll put a small sum on Arlovski. I expect NGannou to KO him, but I think the lines are off. 7/2 is too big for AA, NGannou is still untested really.

Other than that I might play some of the overs.

CurryFlavoured

CurryFlavoured wrote: »

Think I'll put a small sum on Arlovski. I expect NGannou to KO him, but I think the lines are off. 7/2 is too big for AA, NGannou is still untested really.

Other than that I might play some of the overs.

He is 4/1 on Paddy Power at the moment, I wonder what odds for AA KO :cool:

Mr. Manager

Deleted User wrote: »

He is 4/1 on Paddy Power at the moment, I wonder what odds for AA KO :cool:

Andrei Arlovski KO and Round 1: 14.0
Andrei Arlovski KO and Round 2: 18.0
Andrei Arlovski KO and Round 3: 26.0

Andrei Arlovski to Win by Finish:
Yes: 5.5
No: 1.13

CurryFlavoured

Like I said I expect NG to win, AA has no chin at all but I still think there's some value there. He has big KO power, he may have lost 3 in a row but it was to top 10 fighters, the Barnett fight was also back and forth. NG has beaten very low ranked guys.

mailburner

cerrone pts 2/1 with a saver on the sub at 13/2

kwestfan08

Pantoja
Spiceley
Johnson
Jingliang
Sterling
Alvey
Knight
Ngannou
Cerrone
Pena

Tonight's wild accum:P

Few Quid on Pena by either Ko/Sub double chance.

martyos121

Small acca for the weekend:

Torres on points
Vick
OSP by KO
Bermudez on points

mailburner

sh1t odds at 7/10 but went with the andrade grasso double

wee accum also same two with osp bermudez and torres to win on pts
works out around 7/2
if torres somehow put rawlings to sleep then I wouldnt mind losing this in the slightest