UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Django99

Gamebred wrote: »

Around 2/1 for Kelvin ko the weekend, Weidman is finished chin is gone I reckon from taking hammerings.

Toying with that idea myself. Three bad losses in a row for Weidman but then again all against much bigger and better opponents than Gastelum. Keep changing my mind as regards who I think will win. Might wait and see how they look come weigh ins.

D.Q

Wouldn't trust NYSAC with my money tbh.

mailburner

all over kelvin also, if it stays standing he wins this for me.
It takes a lot to ko weidman, not sure if kelvin will tbh, will probably take the 8/11 and hope for 4/5 or 5/6 closer to it, kelvin pts 10/3 not over appealing for a five rounder imo
so this will be weidmans 3rd consecutive fight in new york and could well be his third consecutive loss

I'd fancy villante IF he can keep it standing, that fight to go the distance at 21/20 is one I like as if cummins gets it to ground it may well go the distance

tinpib

Just watching Weidman/Mousassi here, Chris on top before all the kefuffle over legal/illegal knees. I will watch the Romero fight again but the fight was stopped with 1 beautifully timed knee from Romero, can't remember who was on top before that. And then will watch the Rockhold one again too.

So certainly you can make excuses for the Mousasi one, possibly the Romero one. I get the feeling Weidman might kinda be in last chance saloon with this fight but 2.4 seems like a big price.

I watched some Gestelum fights last night and his striking is excellent alright, very accurate. Chris was catching a few shots before all the illegal knee stuff against Mousassi.

dulux99

tinpib wrote: »

Just watching Weidman/Mousassi here, Chris on top before all the kefuffle over legal/illegal knees. I will watch the Romero fight again but the fight was stopped with 1 beautifully timed knee from Romero, can't remember who was on top before that. And then will watch the Rockhold one again too.

So certainly you can make excuses for the Mousasi one, possibly the Romero one. I get the feeling Weidman might kinda be in last chance saloon with this fight but 2.4 seems like a big price.

I watched some Gestelum fights last night and his striking is excellent alright, very accurate. Chris was catching a few shots before all the illegal knee stuff against Mousassi.

I fancy weidman to be honest. Back against the wall in a big way and he's only lost to the best. In saying that, weidman is a guy I find myself backing against religiously, but will be backing him this weekend.

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Looking towards the weekend I think Patrick Cummins is a solid bet at 8/11, tough as old boots and will stifle Villante to a decision. Villante is good in a brawl but I think Cummins will stick to him like glue. Plan on doubling that up with something else but nothing jumps off the page at me just yet

Cummins now 6/5 on PP - all over that, serious value

tinpib

Can't see the Weidman/Romero fight at the mo. Chris seems to take a lot of shots to the face, especially when he tires a bit, Gesteleum is pinpoint accurate with his punches which is a worry.

finglashoop

tinpib wrote: »

Can't see the Weidman/Romero fight at the mo. Chris seems to take a lot of shots to the face, especially when he tires a bit, Gesteleum is pinpoint accurate with his punches which is a worry.

Weidman will be looking for a win. Any sort. I would guess he is wrestle heavy to try wear Gastelum out

mailburner

8/13 gast the best price now so that's me out, pure muck that is

considering doubling him up but not sure which to go with?
rivera, bermudez or the cowboy la flare fight to go the distance?
la flare wouldn't finish the cat to be fair to him, rivera looked outstanding against faber and you would think bermudez would be able to beat elkins

pretty big drift on cummins out to 7/5 now for whatever reason

mailburner

I got 5/4 on gastelum to win by ko or pts with 365 (paddy only go 5/6)
I think that's a very fair price given the chances of him winning by sub are
very slim surely

dulux99

Had another small single on Weidman v Gastelum to be FOTN - Can't see either guy putting the other away early so should go a few rounds, both are prone to gassing so could imagine a scenario where one is dominating and the other turns it around, and they're always more prone to giving the main event FOTN. 16/5 with PP

PopePalpatine

mailburner wrote: »

I got 5/4 on gastelum to win by ko or pts with 365 (paddy only go 5/6)
I think that's a very fair price given the chances of him winning by sub are
very slim surely

I just looked his record up, he won 4 times by submission (with a rear naked choke each time), is your reasoning that you don't think Weidman can lose by submission?

mailburner

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I just looked his record up, he won 4 times by submission (with a rear naked choke each time), is your reasoning that you don't think Weidman can lose by submission?

That's it exactly, I think he's too good to get subbed and most won't want to go to ground with weidman anyway.

Gamebred

Cowboy Oliveira is an interesting underdog tonight he is one of the most awkward fighters in the UFC to beat absolute horse he is good price.

Yeah, he and Natal are both irresistible prices for me.
Going for Weidman to finish in 3-4 too at 10.50 (19/2) He looks so much bigger, back against wall and Gastelum has never done 5 at 185.

mailburner

cowboy the one underdog I like also if he can keep la flare off him, like natal also, nice price considering hes fought some very good fighters against a guy
making his debut with only 7 fights to his name

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

like natal also, nice price considering hes fought some very good fighters against a guy
making his debut with only 7 fights to his name

On 9 days notice

mailburner

Deleted User wrote: »

On 9 days notice

tks, didn't know, why natal is such a price is beyond me

tinpib

Okey Dokey tonight's Goliath contains a lot of outsiders:

Lyman Good 1.53
Chase Sherman by KO 1.83
Thomas Almeida KO 4.33
Patrick Cummins pts 4.33
Ryan LaFlare pts 1.9
Natal 1.9
Elkins 2.6 [perhaps heart more than head]
Weidman 2.25

mailburner

natal pts 4/1
kelleher sub 12/5
la flare pts evens bit short for a single (double with rivera pts maybe)
rivera pts 13/8
gast ko or pts


accum 4.3/1
kelleher
rivera
la flare cowboy to go the distance
gastelum

Wrongway1985

Good
Natal
Sherman
Pepey
Kelleher

€5 @ 31/1 (B365)

30 on Frankie Perez 12/5 seems like good value.

Wrongway1985

Deleted User wrote: »

30 on Frankie Perez 12/5 seems like good value.

Being a rerun is why, he lost the first time...3 years ago though

mailburner

Deleted User wrote: »

30 on Frankie Perez 12/5 seems like good value.

could be a big price that, closer than the odds suggest maybe

thewheel2.0

€10 on a double of Weidman and Almeida returns €59.38. Surely Weidmans unlucky streak has to end and Almeida has only lost to the champ.

Having said that, don't follow me on my bets, I loose all the time...

Axwell

Usual MOV acca with big odds

Grabowski KO/Sub
Good on Pts
Anders KO/Sub
Laflare on Pts
Gastelum by KO/Sub
Bermudez on Pts
Cummins on Pts
Rivera on Pts

thewheel2.0

thewheel2.0 wrote: »

€10 on a double of Weidman and Almeida returns €59.38. Surely Weidmans unlucky streak has to end and Almeida has only lost to the champ.

Having said that, don't follow me on my bets, I loose all the time...

I have won a bit tonight on fights but I can't say which ones cause no after timing I will throw a few quid on Weidman/Almeida also. I think Weidman got unlucky in some of his past fights and Kelvin hasn't beaten anyone real good at MW. I think Wiedmans wrestling here will prove the difference.

mailburner

Deleted User wrote: »

I have won a bit tonight on fights but I can't say which ones cause no after timing

The thread was full of big winners before that ban :pac:
some will be millionaires by now

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, he and Natal are both irresistible prices for me.
Going for Weidman to finish in 3-4 too at 10.50 (19/2) He looks so much bigger, back against wall and Gastelum has never done 5 at 185.

Sometimes, when you just feel it, it pays off to stick your whole account balance on it

Mellor

Lunatic betting. Fair play