UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

all in on covington at 1.85 :pac:

think he struggles to get covington down, I see something very similiar to maia woodley.

smilerf

Gone for this for this weekend

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

all in on covington at 1.85 :pac:

think he struggles to get covington down, I see something very similiar to maia woodley.

I actually think Maia is a cracking price at 11/8, Woodley is the worst possible match up for Maia, and even though the fight was horrendous, Woodley showed great technique in avoiding the takedowns and winning the (limited) striking exchange. Covington has good wrestling but he only wins fights by mushing people into the ground, I can't see that working against Maia. Also Maia is way bigger than Covington. And last but not least Covington is a knob

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

I actually think Maia is a cracking price at 11/8, Woodley is the worst possible match up for Maia, and even though the fight was horrendous, Woodley showed great technique in avoiding the takedowns and winning the (limited) striking exchange. Covington has good wrestling but he only wins fights by mushing people into the ground, I can't see that working against Maia. Also Maia is way bigger than Covington. And last but not least Covington is a knob

Its easy to forget Covington hasn't beaten anyone of note either so maybe maia is overpriced.
I think Covington wins especially if it stays standing which I think it will.
I still remember lumping on maia in Brazil when he failed to beat Jake shields, still wonder did maia have an off day then lol

I will say this though....I'd never be happier losing money than losing it on this one

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

I actually think Maia is a cracking price at 11/8, Woodley is the worst possible match up for Maia, and even though the fight was horrendous, Woodley showed great technique in avoiding the takedowns and winning the (limited) striking exchange. Covington has good wrestling but he only wins fights by mushing people into the ground, I can't see that working against Maia. Also Maia is way bigger than Covington. And last but not least Covington is a knob

Badly missed the price on my own fancy here, maia was 11/8 the other day, evens in most places now. Ffs

Paully D

Looking ahead to next week and I'm very surprised Bisping is an underdog vs GSP.

I think Bisping has good enough TDD to keep GSP from taking him down at will, and he has a big advantage on the feet. Also, factoring in that GSP has been away for four years, is fighting in a heavier weight class, and lets be honest, lost to Hendricks in his last fight (16 out of 16 media members per MMA Decisions also agreed), and I feel Bisping should be favourite here. I'm backing Bisping at 6/5 and feel that price will shorten by the time he walks to the octagon as I could see the big hitters lumping on come fight night.

Garbrandt vs Dillashaw is very hard to call, but I note that Cody has gone into an 8/11 favourite with Dillashaw gone out as far as 7/5 (Marathon Bet). It's the definition of a 50-50 fight IMO but with Dillashaw going out to that price I see value in TJ and will be having a punt on him.

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

all in on covington at 1.85 :pac:

think he struggles to get covington down, I see something very similiar to maia woodley.

You were spot on lad fair play

Odds for 217 are all out now. Some surprising early underdogs.
Loving Oleynik at 4.00 with his submission record

Found a new stats site i like if anyone's interested. Not a fan of sherdog these days
http://www.mmaformguide.com/bispingvsgsp/

Mellor

Found a bet slip in my wallet that I don't remember making - it's from a betting terminal in the pub
Under/Overs on 3 fights.

Pretty sure it came in. Will have to confirm but I'll be reinvesting in under/overs this weekend. Thoughts?

AlmightyCushion

Mellor wrote: »

Found a bet slip in my wallet that I don't remember making - it's from a betting terminal in the pub
Under/Overs on 3 fights.

Pretty sure it came in. Will have to confirm but I'll be reinvesting in under/overs this weekend. Thoughts?

Get absolutely shítfaced and let drunk you decide again. It worked the last time.

Mellor

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Get absolutely shítfaced and let drunk you decide again. It worked the last time.

That's the worrying thing, it was during the day, I'm not sure that I was even drinking. I just don't remember placing it.


Getting razzed does sound like the option though.

Lukker-

Surprised Dillashaw and Bisping are underdogs. Gonna pop a double on them because I think they are decent value

Useful.Idiot

yeah I popped an accum on all main card fights favouring mostly underdogs, 20e on 341e return

Borrachnia
Masdival
Joanna
TJ
Bisping

srfc d16

Does anybody know much about Borrachinha? I think Hendricks has been a shadow of himself with only 2 wins in the last 3 years and see some value in backing the underdog but I don't know enough about his opponent.

weemcd

TJ and Bisping are big value as underdogs in this. Also can't see past Joanna ko.

Mellor

srfc d16 wrote: »

Does anybody know much about Borrachinha? I think Hendricks has been a shadow of himself with only 2 wins in the last 3 years and see some value in backing the underdog but I don't know enough about his opponent.

He's a bit of a beast. Jacked to bits for MW. Throws bombs, but throws them pretty well not just haymakers.
He's not the underdog here iirc.
Typical fight goes like this

I think he stops Johnny

Useful.Idiot

weemcd wrote: »

Also can't see past Joanna ko.

She hasn't gotten a TKO since 5 fights ago?

srfc d16

Mellor wrote: »

He's a bit of a beast. Jacked to bits for MW. Throws bombs, but throws them pretty well not just haymakers.
He's not the underdog here iirc.

https://oddshot.tv/s/GWqca5


I think he stops Johnny

Just checked the odds and your'e right he's 4/11.

akelly02

srfc d16 wrote: »

Does anybody know much about Borrachinha? I think Hendricks has been a shadow of himself with only 2 wins in the last 3 years and see some value in backing the underdog but I don't know enough about his opponent.

Hendricks is underdog you know that yea?

Fromvert

I may be insane for thinking this but I'd have a small punt on Hendricks at 9/4 tbh
Borrachinha has been blowing out nobodies, Hendricks is sliding and looking shot but he's been losing to guys who are solid established fighters (Boetsch) to high level (Wonderboy).
If Hendricks goes for a straight up grinding style and avoids slugging it out he has a good chance. Get Borrachinha into the third and I'd like to see how that gas tank looks. Maybe Jackson/Wink can squeeze one last win out of Johny.

The near 11/1 treble of Bisping/Masvidal/TJ will be punted.

Vick also a very live underdog at 11/8

thewheel2.0

Paddy Power have an enhanced treble for 7/2 (4.5):
Bisping
Garbrant
Joanna

Was gonna bet on that anyway, so it suits me.

al87987

Oleyink at 5/1 for the sub win.

selassie

Zahabi, Oliynyk, Gall, OSP, Duffy, Rose, TJ, Bisping.

5 euro returns 8k

Mellor

In addition to my U/O bet above. I went with Borachinnha by KO, Duffy Pts, Joanna Pts

akelly02

Cody ko and bisping decision, €20 pays €200

mailburner

like the 19/20 on gsp myself to took that

tj pts only way he wins this for me

thomson pts
gall sub 5/2 skyb

nice accum there at big odds (did gsp pts for the acca tho)
added oleinik also for bigger odds

am also on oleinik by sub at 5s, big price for a lad with 45 subs, blaydes probably better but the longer it goes the better this will look, oleinik very tough
also took him to sub in round two at 14s and round three at 25s with pp

thewheel2.0

al87987 wrote: »

Oleyink at 5/1 for the sub win.

I'm going in on Oleynik by sub too for interest. Half the forum will be on him

selassie

selassie wrote: »

Zahabi, Oliynyk, Gall, OSP, Duffy, Rose, TJ, Bisping.

5 euro returns 8k

Well if you're gonna lose on the first fight a spinning elbow knock out isn't a bad way to do it.

dulux99

My main bet tonight is Brown (1/4) Poirier (5/6) double. I genuinely believe poirier is one of the best in the division. Also did a quad of Northcutt, lauzon, brown and poirier - pays about 6/1. It's a deceptively good card, especially for a few bets

Hopefully recoup some of my losses from last weekend which I'm glad I didn't post about at the time! A complete horror show

weemcd

dulux99 wrote: »

My main bet tonight is Brown (1/4) Poirier (5/6) double. I genuinely believe poirier is one of the best in the division. Also did a quad of Northcutt, lauzon, brown and poirier - pays about 6/1. It's a deceptively good card, especially for a few bets

Hopefully recoup some of my losses from last weekend which I'm glad I didn't post about at the time! A complete horror show

Solid picks there