UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

darced

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Gamebred

Find it amusing you boys think the fight will go ahead, plenty time for Khalabib to pull out, looks drained af already.

It will be 3 rounds of the Dagestan Blanket technique again and we all know it. Luckily he only fights once every 2 years so he should be ready for Conor's first title defence in 2020

Subcomandante Marcos

Khabib by whatever the feck he wants. He'll have do to Hector what e does to everyone bring him on a flight aboard Eagle Airways and break him.

Hector can't throw kicks because it's an invitation to take off.

Khabib by GnP tko or kimura.

Subcomandante Marcos

I honestly think people don't understand how good Khabibs grappling is. He's not good, he's peerless.

al87987

The man wrestles bears for gods sake. Bears!

dulux99

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

I honestly think people don't understand how good Khabibs grappling is. He's not good, he's peerless.

I agree, but you'd have to wonder how his body is. He's had so many injuries and late pull outs, one day I think he will turn up and just look like a shell of himself. I backed Michael Johnson to beat him at 205 and was quietly confident for the first few minutes before Khabib took over. He's now had one more injury and one more late pullout since that scrap

CurryFlavoured

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

I honestly think people don't understand how good Khabibs grappling is. He's not good, he's peerless.

I do understand, it's the best in the sport imo. But his striking is hideous which means that his elite kickboxer KO artist opponent has a chance.

dulux99

Upon first glance a nice underdog bet that sticks out for me is Rick Glenn @ 13/8 to beat Jury. Jury is a classy operator but I just question his mindset sometimes. Rick Glenn sucks the life out of people. He's just an awful guy to be paired up against. Jury is primarily a striker and I could see him having trouble keeping Glenn off him

Mellor

al87987 wrote: »

The man wrestles bears for gods sake. Bears!

He did once, and the bear won :pac:

darced

This post has been deleted.

Im not sure Elliott will have it as easy as the bookies think. 2 weight cuts in a few weeks, the drama over the last one, the suicide of his old trainer. Not sure his head will be in it. Fancy Rosa to ride the wave of confidence after his wife won.
Fancy Esparza and Holm as the other underdogs to win

tinpib

Have Holly by KO at 7.0 for the laugh. Cyborg was far from devastating against the soccermom last time out. If she cracks her with a kick it could be KO.

Don't think Cyborg is the force she was in the past, could still win easily of course but took the fancy price on Holly.

mailburner

condit/calvillo my banker double at around 5/4
think both are much better than their opponents is all and struggling to see how magny in particular can overcome condit.

singles/double
holly 11/4
barbosa ko 9/2


couple of daft ones also
barbosa ko round one 8/1
de la rosa sub round one 12/1
singles/double


if barbosa stays round one on his feet I think he could rock khabib but of course this bet could be over the minute khabib gets him down.
I think if holly can weather the early storm he just might be able to win on pts.
The cyborg sub could be big at 10s but she'll probably stand and bang.

like ahkmedov also at 9/5, beat a tough lad last time out.

kwestfan08

My accum for the night

Pereira
Jury
Roundtree by KO
Calivio by Sub
Diakiese

dulux99

My next bit is a 1pt saver on Barboza on pts at 13/2 - General consensus is he can spark Khabib (which he can) but I just think Khabib could be unbelievably difficult to put away. I think if Barb is to win he will keep khabib at bay and chop away at him from distance. Still fancy khabib but as I said this is just a saver.

smilerf

Here is mine for the night

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Upon first glance a nice underdog bet that sticks out for me is Rick Glenn @ 13/8 to beat Jury. Jury is a classy operator but I just question his mindset sometimes. Rick Glenn sucks the life out of people. He's just an awful guy to be paired up against. Jury is primarily a striker and I could see him having trouble keeping Glenn off him

Well I got that embarrassingly wrong

weemcd

I feckin knew Magney was big value tonight, didn't put it on either.

I like Khabib in co main, main is very difficult for me to call. Not confident with this card for picks. Still considering options.

Really like the odds for PVZ this weekend. Clarke has won her last 2 by split dec and just posted that she had her US house broken into, pet had to be put down etc. She also came in overweight in her last fight and couldn't finish Rawlings. PVZ KOd Rawlings.
Currently both are 1.87 to win. Seems very generous and sure to drop for PVZ

Mellor

Deleted User wrote: »

Really like the odds for PVZ this weekend. Clarke has won her last 2 by split dec and just posted that she had her US house broken into, pet had to be put down etc. She also came in overweight in her last fight and couldn't finish Rawlings. PVZ KOd Rawlings.
Currently both are 1.87 to win. Seems very generous and sure to drop for PVZ

Jessy was also fighting on a weeks notice last time and had to fly to Australia while she was cutting. The Rawlings fight was nowhere near a split either.

Jessy by sub is value for me

Mellor

Mellor wrote: »

Jessy was also fighting on a weeks notice last time and had to fly to Australia while she was cutting. The Rawlings fight was nowhere near a split either.

Jessy by sub is value for me

You should jump on it at odds of 11.00!! Can't see her finishing PVZ when her last 7 fights went to Dec, although she did beat a Japanese girl in Round 3 but it was made a NC as Clarke was 5lbs overweight again for her only other Flyweight fight. With these distractions I wouldn't be surprised if she misses again. Could be forced to move up.

Anyone else think bets should have the option of being voided if a fighter misses weight?

dulux99

Deleted User wrote: »

Mellor wrote: »

Jessy was also fighting on a weeks notice last time and had to fly to Australia while she was cutting. The Rawlings fight was nowhere near a split either.

Jessy by sub is value for me

Anyone else think bets should have the option of being voided if a fighter misses weight?

Will never happen tbh. I can't think of any other sports bet that has a similar clause to this built in. For this to work it would also indicate that the bookie could void the bet on their end to suit them too - what if you back someone, his opponent misses weight and looks like death warmed up, and the bookmaker voided your bet? You'd go mental.

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Will never happen tbh. I can't think of any other sports bet that has a similar clause to this built in. For this to work it would also indicate that the bookie could void the bet on their end to suit them too - what if you back someone, his opponent misses weight and looks like death warmed up, and the bookmaker voided your bet? You'd go mental.

When I said option, I meant on the punters end. If i bet on PVZ now and clark comes in 5lbs over my bet is at a significant disadvantage. More of a customer service thing, similar to when they void your 1st goalscorer bet if your player doesn't start.

Mellor

Deleted User wrote: »

You should jump on it at odds of 11.00!! Can't see her finishing PVZ when her last 7 fights went to Dec, although she did beat a Japanese girl in Round 3 but it was made a NC as Clarke was 5lbs overweight again for her only other Flyweight fight. With these distractions I wouldn't be surprised if she misses again. Could be forced to move up.

Anyone else think bets should have the option of being voided if a fighter misses weight?

Fair point, but there's a huge difference between going the distance with the likes of Sarah Kaufman (who fought for the 135 title), and facing PSV was has been a comfortable 115er until now.

Django99

[Deleted User] wrote: »

When I said option, I meant on the punters end. If i bet on PVZ now and clark comes in 5lbs over my bet is at a significant disadvantage. More of a customer service thing, similar to when they void your 1st goalscorer bet if your player doesn't start.

There's a slight difference between those two examples in that a 1st goal scorer bet not starting is similar to a non runner in a horse race, it affects the chances of every other player. So it's beneficial for both punter and bookie to void those bets.

Most bets can be voided before an event by mutual agreement, but as you say a fighter missing weight can change the perceived chances of the outcome. It goes both ways too, sometimes a fighter missing weight can be an advantage to themselves, other times to the opponent.

Mellor

The win rate for fighters who miss weight is pretty close to 50%.
24 wins - 23 losses over the last 4 years ('13-'17).

Mellor

Mellor wrote: »

The win rate for fighters who miss weight is pretty close to 50%.
24 wins - 23 losses over the last 4 years ('13-'17).

Since the new weigh-in procedures it's 17-11 in favour of the overweight fighter though. Stats here if anyone wants a look:
http://www.betmma.tips/ufc_fighters_who_missed_weight.php

Another one today. 4lbs over but weighed in with 80 minutes remaining so not much of a disadvantage, if at all

mailburner

Deleted User wrote: »

Really like the odds for PVZ this weekend. Clarke has won her last 2 by split dec and just posted that she had her US house broken into, pet had to be put down etc. She also came in overweight in her last fight and couldn't finish Rawlings. PVZ KOd Rawlings.
Currently both are 1.87 to win. Seems very generous and sure to drop for PVZ

finding the evens in pvz very tempting now, I'd have her a slight favourite if only in terms of who she fought.
I wasn't impressed by clarke lto but again it was on short notice so maybe she is better than that.
I still find it hard to believe that pvz has more finishes than decisions in her seven wins though.
I'll still probably take the 2/1 on a pvz pts win

Mellor

Deleted User wrote: »

Since the new weigh-in procedures it's 17-11 in favour of the overweight fighter though. Stats here if anyone wants a look:
http://www.betmma.tips/ufc_fighters_who_missed_weight.php

That's the same site I took it from. I just used the last 4 full years, 17-11 is a smaller sample.


Anyway, with no short notice fights, international flights, or Japanese shenanigans. Jessy makes weight at flyweight (125.5).
PVZ also makes weight.

Bets placed, sub win and sub win rd3