UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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karlb123 wrote: »

Anyone else fancy lauzon by sub at 5/2? Greutzmacher lost his last 2 by sub, joe has a lot of sub wins. Makes sense to me

It's hard to believe a lad with 18 subs hasn't had a sub win in 6yrs
Fought a lot of lads who rarely get subbed though
I'd say he'll go for a sub win tonight though

15 on Ragin Al to win by KO at 8/1

Whelo79

Lauzen by Sub
Mercier by Sub
Joanna by KO

€10 pays €1180

Deadst4r

Whelo79 wrote: »

Lauzen by Sub
Mercier by Sub
Joanna by KO

€10 pays €1180

I actually really like this one. Hoping Mercier can get the sub, preferably in 2 or 3.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

ferguson 9/4 now to beat khabib which for me is the value price of the year
I was backing him at around 6/5 last time they were scheduled to meet
He broke barbosa early but apart from that he's no 1/2 shot here

big ferguson fan, love the way he fights and if khabib doesn't get it done in the first two I think ferguson will have a field day with khabib and just feel in general he has more ways to win this.
I don't think khabib will get ferguson down and keep him there and if khabib keeps coming forward like v barbosa but he won't break tony and the gas tank won't hold out if he repeats those tactics...no worries with tony there.


will probably back rose also at 5/4
any reason she won't win this again? did jj underestimate her or have an off day? the confidence rose showed in that fight has me thinking she may well do the same again.

Even more convinced now Tony will take Khabib if it ever happens
What a price that would have been

Lauzon is done as a fighter, will never back him again

ForeverYoung90

Justin Gaethje to win vs Poirier @6/5

This fight is going to be a glorified kickboxing contest in 4oz gloves imo. I like both fighters, two tough mofo’s Gaethje to edge this close matchup simply because I think he has a better chin than Dustin. I can see him chopping Poirers legs and slow him down. Could be decision win.

ForeverYoung90

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Justin Gaethje to win vs Poirier @6/5

This fight is going to be a glorified kickboxing contest in 4oz gloves imo. I like both fighters, two tough mofo’s Gaethje to edge this close matchup simply because I think he has a better chin than Dustin. I can see him chopping Poirers legs and slow him down. Could be decision win.

5 round fight? KO one way or another imo

kwestfan08

Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ
Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ
Oliveria to win

2pt treble

mailburner

[Deleted User] wrote: »

5 round fight? KO one way or another imo

No doubt about it

Gaethje is getting knocked out, poirier is a much better fighter these days
Unless he gets into a Brawl he wins for me

dulux99

I'm on a shocking run at the minute but I'm pretty confident about a Sterling/Lee double at the weekend.

Sterling is a good strong top game wrestler which should nullify Johns, and Barboza took a complete hiding only at the very end of December and I can't see how he can be fully prepared for this fight.

kwestfan08

dulux99 wrote: »

I'm on a shocking run at the minute but I'm pretty confident about a Sterling/Lee double at the weekend.

Sterling is a good strong top game wrestler which should nullify Johns, and Barboza took a complete hiding only at the very end of December and I can't see how he can be fully prepared for this fight.

Aljo took that sickening KO in December too though. That's what's kind of putting me off him.

mailburner

I like barbosa, his ground game is improving and I'm sure he'll have worked a lot on his tdd defence for this one
he's fought almost everybody which can't be a bad thing
I think lee will need to get him out of there early to get it done.
Lee really needs to make a statement here imo or he'll just be another decent fighter who probably won't make a run for the belt, maybe barbosa is one of those fighters who'll get close but will probably never fight for the belt.

kwestfan08

Cant buy a win these days and probably won't tonight either but I've gone for Swanson by KO @ 5/1.

Just think it's a very quick turn around for Frankie and if he gets clipped maybe his chin won't hold up like it has before. Probably unlikely but thought 5's was decent value as its probably the only way Cub can win.

weemcd

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Cant buy a win these days and probably won't tonight either but I've gone for Swanson by KO @ 5/1.

Just think it's a very quick turn around for Frankie and if he gets clipped maybe his chin won't hold up like it has before. Probably unlikely but thought 5's was decent value as its probably the only way Cub can win.

I think this may be worth a punt myself, only thing stopping me pulling the trigger is Swanson hasn't had a KO in a while. Having wars year after year never ends well, taking a quick turnaround fight a month after you get knocked out doesn't end well, both worth considering when it comes to Frankie.

Probably worth a fiver.

mailburner

stuck with barboza 13/10 with a smaller one on the ko 7/2

sherman ko 7/1 looks value to me
santos round one 5/2...he's gonna try and get it done as early as possible

dulux99

Serious value in Jim miler here at 12/5, 2pt bet

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Serious value in Jim miler here at 12/5, 2pt bet

.... Like I said earlier in the thread, I'm on a horrendous run at the minute.

Anyways

3pt single on sterling single
2pt treble sterling, Vargas (boxing) and Edgar

mailburner

mir is 8/11 to beat fedor later, can't see past him

Mellor

Davi Ramos is favourite to win at the weekend. And to won by sub he is is 10/3.
His opponent is a decision merchant, so Davi has 15mins to find the sub. Good bet imo.
I went for rd2 at 10/1 for the lols.


For those not familar, this is Ramos (ADCC final vrs Lucas Lepri)

dulux99

I've backed Amanda Cooper to beat Dern at the weekend, 9/4. My reasoning :

1.) Dern scraped through her last fight and looked very average - this was only two months ago

2.) since then she's been kicked out of her gym (mma lab) - that's a terrible sign

3.) she doesn't have any sort of "home field advantage" fighting in Brazil - she is from arizona and has lived in America all her life. The fact that she uses a feckin translator makes it all the more ridiculous

Amanda Cooper is very inexperienced herself but I think it's worth a punt at the price.

mailburner

^^

hard to turn down value like that in fairness, dern looked awful last time out


another fighter who had a stinker last time out is albini v arlovski, have seen more movement from a tree at times than albini that night
oleynik is no great shakes as a fighter but does have 43 sub wins
gonna chance a small stake on him by sub at 16/5

like the souza sub also at 9/4, thing he'll be too good for gastelum, seen that one bookie had them joint favs during the week and kinda regret not taking the win on souza
This is probably gastelums big chance to jump into the top 5 or so or its back down the ladder fighting lesser guys otherwise



my idea of a banker double would be bader to beat king mo and the machida belfort fight not to go the distance which is 2.22 with lads/coral

bader and mo will no doubt cancel each other out but bader is much better standing, vitor has gone the distance once since 2007 which just happened to be last time out v marquardt
the worry with these two is if it goes to a third both won't have anything left in the tank though and they could waste half the first round just weighing each other up and doing sweet fa

Mellor

dulux99 wrote: »

I've backed Amanda Cooper to beat Dern at the weekend, 9/4. My reasoning :

1.) Dern scraped through her last fight and looked very average - this was only two months ago

2.) since then she's been kicked out of her gym (mma lab) - that's a terrible sign

3.) she doesn't have any sort of "home field advantage" fighting in Brazil - she is from arizona and has lived in America all her life. The fact that she uses a feckin translator makes it all the more ridiculous

Amanda Cooper is very inexperienced herself but I think it's worth a punt at the price.

Dern missed weight by 8lbs

tinpib

Mellor wrote: »

Dern missed weight by 8lbs

That sounds like quite an achievement.

califano

Dont think the fight will happen will it?

dulux99

It'll happen alright. Cooper getting 30% of Derns purse is probably more than she was to make alone. Looks terrible on Derns part but I think to be honest it's probably a bad thing for my bet, that weight advantage could be huge for her.

Fromvert

Saw Mike Bohn tweet that she's the 11th fighter this year to miss weight, of the previous ten only five fought, they all won. Obviously there are a lot more variables to take into account.

Johny Cage

Vitor at 9/4 and Vitor round 1 7/1. Both fighters have suspect chins at this stage so I like those odds.

Mellor

Have to think Dern's weight advantage will give her the grappling edge. Took Deen by sub, Davi by sub and those 2 in a 5 fight accum with Jacare, Alves and Perez

Quite surprised by Maias odds for this weekend. I know Woodley defended every takedown but Maia always has a chance with his BJJ. He's currently 4.70 to win with no odds yet for Win by Sub

mailburner

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite surprised by Maias odds for this weekend. I know Woodley defended every takedown but Maia always has a chance with his BJJ. He's currently 4.70 to win with no odds yet for Win by Sub

I'd say there's three guys in that div which will beat maia 90% of the time and he's fought two of them in cc and woodley
for me usman is the other

the odds on maia of 5/1 are huge now no doubt about that and no way is usman a 1/6 shot but I still believe he'll win this easier than covington

maia will be wrecked after a couple of rounds, usman will imo have no problem going more and even though maia has only been stopped once in his entire career I think he could be stopped here....odds on a usman stoppage are dire also 4/5


pretty bad card for betting, worst in a while