UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

one for an interest, card just started

tybura
smith
hein fight to go the distance
12/5
betstars

rarely do they come that easy, haven't said that in a long time here

KingJamsie

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders Series

Gonna gamble on Alex Munoz, Team Alpha Male prospect, has Faber in his corner

Is the 2.1 underdog to beat Nick Newell(1.67)

mailburner

any thoughts on aldo at 5/6 to beat stephens?

I think the price on stephens is ridiculous, ok hes been doing well enough but in his last three he faced fighters who were willing to stand and bang with him (choi, emmet and melendez)
I'm struggling to see him have the same success against aldo myself and will imo come away very frustrated.
some might think aldo is on the decline but hes still leagues above js imo and will probably still beat frankie 90% of the time

so aldo has lost 3/4 twice to holloway and one to conor beating frankie in between.

Mellor

mailburner wrote: »

any thoughts on aldo at 5/6 to beat stephens?

Aldo is phenomenal, he just ran into the two best FW of the last 5 years.
Stephens isn't on that level imo.


The only issue that creepiong into my mind, is that Aldo isn't the strongest mentally (imo). So I'm not sure how those 3 KOs have affected his confidence facing a power puncher

mailburner

stephens now fav in most lists :eek: aldo evens now

best at 11/8 on pts, looks likely but at that price probably not worth the risk

Paully D

Aldo 11/10:

People are thinking Aldo is finished and while he isn't what he was, it's worth remembering that he has dominated Frankie Edgar in a wide decision win after the Conor fight. There's also no shame in losing to Holloway who is proving to be one of the best fighters on the roster. Stephens is a good stylistic matchup for Aldo if he has anything at all left. To be honest, I actually just can't see Stephens beating any version of Jose Aldo. Probably one of those spots where after the fight we'll all be saying "how did anyone think Stephens had that much of a chance?". I'm astounded he's an underdog here.

Austin Arnett 7/2:

Very small stake here. I know little about Arnett but it's more of a bet against Dawodu than anything else. He came into the UFC with a strong record from WSOF as a favourite against Danny Roberts, but was beaten quickly and comfortably, getting dropped and then submitted. He also spent his camp for that fight in SBG and I believe he was little more than a punching bag in there for the duration. Being realistic, this is probably a fight set up to gift Dawodu a highlight win so as I said, very small stake.

Mellor

Back Aldo, JJ by decision and Dustin v Eddie over 2.5rds.
Smallish bet, (1.5pts)

mailburner

aldo was 12/1 for the tko :eek:

had a big bet on him to win as it was but still....

Paully D

Aldo at plus money was ****ing ridiclous.

Mellor

Mellor wrote: »

Back Aldo, JJ by decision and Dustin v Eddie over 2.5rds.
Smallish bet, (1.5pts)

That'll do. 6/1 I think

markc91

Mellor wrote: »

That'll do. 6/1 I think

Did you get payed out i done it with sky bet and has the Eddie Dustin down as loser what minute in the round did the fight end?

Johner

Wouldn't over 2.5 be a loser? I think it only went over 1.5 rounds as it went by 2.31 seconds of round 2.

Mellor

markc91 wrote: »

Did you get payed out i done it with sky bet and has the Eddie Dustin down as loser what minute in the round did the fight end?

Did it in the bookies so haven't cashed it in yet.
During the fight I was sweating one of Poirers guillotine attempts that was right before the halfway mark. But fight went on for another 90 seconds.

Odd that SkyBet have it as a loser.

Mellor

Johner wrote: »

Wouldn't over 2.5 be a loser? I think it only went over 1.5 rounds as it went by 2.31 seconds of round 2.

That's correct.
Was severely hungover watching the fights and didn't notice I wrote 2.5rds not 1.5 above. Now I don't know which I actually bet on. SMH

Axwell

Mellor wrote: »

Did it in the bookies so haven't cashed it in yet.
During the fight I was sweating one of Poirers guillotine attempts that was right before the halfway mark. But fight went on for another 90 seconds.

Odd that SkyBet have it as a loser.

The fight didnt go over 2.5 rounds. It ended at 4.05 in the second round, not the third.

Edit: you replied just as i typed this

mailburner

tj out to 10/11 now after being shorter all week

fancied him last time but went for pts, think I'll just go for the win this time

am also thinking under 3.5 rounds at 4/5 looks a steal

KingJamsie

Cub Swanson vs Renato Moicano

Swanson the underdog here but his losses have come from top guys like Ortega, Edgar + Holloway.

I think Cub Swanson by Decision at 11/2 w/ BetVictor is worth a chance

That said, Moicano is a heavy betting favourite here. Swanson has a few losses by Submission so I will probably have Renato Moicano by sub 6/1 w/ Paddy Power too.

Mehaffey1

Boring bet for TJ and DJ plainly to win. Came in roughly 1/1. Near wouldn't mind losing out if Cejudo comes out and puts a beating on DJ

akelly02

Mehaffey1 wrote: »

Boring bet for TJ and DJ plainly to win. Came in roughly 1/1. Near wouldn't mind losing out if Cejudo comes out and puts a beating on DJ

DJ losing is not something you should even think about

Axwell

Cody by KO
DJ by decision
Santos by KO
Swanson by decision


70/1

mailburner

a few interesting ones in the skybet request a bet section

Repeat Result - T.J. Dillashaw to Win by KO/TKO in Second Round, Most 1st Round Significant Strikes: C.Garbrandt
33/1

T.J. Dillashaw To Land a Takedown in the First Round
5/2

the one I'm most tempted with is this one though
T.J. Dillashaw to Win, Land the Most Takedowns & Land the Most Significant Strikes
=5/1

KingJamsie

mailburner wrote: »

a few interesting ones in the skybet request a bet section

Repeat Result - T.J. Dillashaw to Win by KO/TKO in Second Round, Most 1st Round Significant Strikes: C.Garbrandt
33/1

T.J. Dillashaw To Land a Takedown in the First Round
5/2

the one I'm most tempted with is this one though
T.J. Dillashaw to Win, Land the Most Takedowns & Land the Most Significant Strikes
=5/1

Think Cody has 100% takedown defense but TJ using his wrestling would be smart

mailburner

KingJamsie wrote: »

Think Cody has 100% takedown defense but TJ using his wrestling would be smart

if anyone gets a td it'll be tj and sure he just needs to win then and outstrike cody

too many ifs and buts maybe

have a feeling cody might be better this time also and my faith in tj as a fighter is making me think he'll win when its really a cointoss

the under 3.5 rounds looks a better bet at much the same odds imo

Axwell

mailburner wrote: »

a few interesting ones in the skybet request a bet section

Repeat Result - T.J. Dillashaw to Win by KO/TKO in Second Round, Most 1st Round Significant Strikes: C.Garbrandt
33/1

T.J. Dillashaw To Land a Takedown in the First Round
5/2

the one I'm most tempted with is this one though
T.J. Dillashaw to Win, Land the Most Takedowns & Land the Most Significant Strikes
=5/1

That's pretty good value in fairness, surely worth a small punt. Wouldn't be confident in anything in the fight so regardless of how much I have faith in one fighter over the other or like them I couldn't convince myself to lump on that 5/2 or similar. I have Cody to win in the bet I posted above but im fully aware it could just as easy be TJ so its just something that gives me big odds to make it interesting and stuck a tenner on it.

mailburner

Axwell wrote: »

That's pretty good value in fairness, surely worth a small punt. Wouldn't be confident in anything in the fight so regardless of how much I have faith in one fighter over the other or like them I couldn't convince myself to lump on that 5/2 or similar. I have Cody to win in the bet I posted above but im fully aware it could just as easy be TJ so its just something that gives me big odds to make it interesting and stuck a tenner on it.

I agree, at the odds you have to have a few quid on or you'll spend all of sunday thinking about it if it lands

tjs odds have shortened a lot in the past few hours also for some reason

mailburner

coral have enhanced dj and tj to 6/4

next best is 6/5 skybet

took that also along with a saver of cejudo pts 10/1 which is a bit of value if nothing else

Axwell

mailburner wrote: »

coral have enhanced dj and tj to 6/4

next best is 6/5 skybet

pretty tempted by that also

Not bad either, but Cody is gonna win :pac:

mailburner

Axwell wrote: »

Not bad either, but Cody is gonna win :pac:

:pac:

feel sorry for that poor lad taking evens on it (a paddy power job no doubt) hopefully a small punter for his sake

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

tj out to 10/11 now after being shorter all week

fancied him last time but went for pts, think I'll just go for the win this time

am also thinking under 3.5 rounds at 4/5 looks a steal

whatever about tj winning the under 3.5 rounds was indeed a steal
I was counting my money after 2 mins on that one, never looked like
it was going to go more than a round or two

mailburner wrote: »

coral have enhanced dj and tj to 6/4

next best is 6/5 skybet

took that also along with a saver of cejudo pts 10/1 which is a bit of value if nothing else

thought this had a very small chance and only took it because it was a bit too big, shocked it came in but I've learnt my lesson that regardless of what you fancy you should always take a price if it's too big

D.Q

am i mental for thinking Conor by KO @ 21/10 is insane value