UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

D.Q wrote: »

am i mental for thinking Conor by KO @ 21/10 is insane value

I don't think it's great value myself but do think the conor round one at 6/1 is value if you fancy a conor ko and maybe a smaller bet on round two at 17/2

there no doubt in my mind anyway that if conor doesn't get him outa there in two he won't be finishing khabib

I'm thinking closer the fight there'll be the option of taking conor round one or two which I'm guessing should be around 7/2 at these prices

dulux99

If you fancy Conor then nows the time to get on him. I guarantee you he will be favourite on fight night. The casual money will pile on him. Lest we forget he shortened from 8/1 to 4/1 against Floyd feckin Mayweather in a boxing match.

Axwell

D.Q wrote: »

am i mental for thinking Conor by KO @ 21/10 is insane value

Said this elsewhere already, its early enough now that hes the underdog and the odds still havent come in. Once the Irish start to land in Vegas and money starts going on him those odds are gonna come right in and he will be favourite. Any money to be made is putting the bet on now or as mentioned above going for a round victory, although those odds wont drop anything like the straight bet to win.

dulux99

D.Q wrote: »

am i mental for thinking Conor by KO @ 21/10 is insane value

This is into 17/10 now. As I said a few posts ago now is the time to get on McGregor if you fancy him. He's only going to shorten

Mellor

dulux99 wrote: »

This is into 17/10 now. As I said a few posts ago now is the time to get on McGregor if you fancy him. He's only going to shorten

2/1 is still available. Won't last though

mailburner

justin gaethje 13/10

What do people think of gaethje v vick tomorrow night?

Vick is coming across as being over confident saying that he has a large
bet on himself to win under 2.5 rounds and initially looked for this fight
after gaethje beat mj
there's no love lost between the two either and vick has called him a punchbag amongst other things which is true enough given his style

I think the price on justin is pretty big myself.
He's been in two wars with eddie and dustin but he put them through hell before they finally finished him and vic imo isn't at their level.
I don't think vick can take that (esp the leg kicks) level of damage.


Is vic over hyped? his best win is against possible trinaldo or duffy.
Justin is probably a notch below the very best but I think he might too tough for vic.

I don't rate vic that highly and think justin can win this by stoppage in the later rounds
I might be way off here but I don't see vic finishing justin quicker than eddie or dustin did.



I'm guessing this might not go the distance but do think there are worse value bets than justin pts at 10/1 or vick pts 7/1 but do feel if vick does survive five rounds then he'll probably be ahead on the scorecards.

dulux99

Unfortunately I fancy Vick even though I love Justin Gaethje. He's a 6'3 lightweight who knows how to use his range and has excellent fundamentals. Gaethje will try and make it into a brawl but I don't think Vick will fall into the trap. I know Vick doesn't have many huge names under his belt but it's the nature of how he's putting people away is impressive to me . Totally sparked Duffy out who, I would have said, was one of the best out and out boxers in the division.
I probably won't have a bet in this one myself as I want Gaethje to win but don't fancy him to, but that's my two cents.

mailburner

thanks dulux

sometimes when a price is too good to be true (in my head anyway) I wonder to myself am I missing something?
It's always good to get other opinions here on a fight.

thewheel2.0

dulux99 wrote: »

I know Vick doesn't have many huge names under his belt but it's the nature of how he's putting people away is impressive to me .

My picks are terrible so don't listen to me but this to me is what stands out about Vick. His use of his reach plus they way he beats people. Can't see Justin finishing him.

callaway92

Really like the price on Rani Yahya - always ridic underrated.

Will take a big bet on him straight win.

Medium bet on him winning by sub

weemcd

Anyone fancy Mickey Gall in this one?

Prob not gonna touch either Vick or Justin in the main

mailburner

really like this first one also
williams is gonna get crushed, rare to see jake go the distance and moraga has only been stopped by mighty mouse and the doctor

ellenb v barbarena not to go the distance
anders v williams not to go the distance
moraga fight to go the distance
odds 2.88 betstars


yahya sub
anders round one
5/1


yahya sub
anders round one
moraga pts
johnson pts
gaethje
sanchez perez to go the distance
274/1

Wrongway1985

Threw a tenner on Casey & Johnson double, think they are underdogs that could get it done.

ASOT

Wrongway1985 wrote: »

Threw a tenner on Casey & Johnson double, think they are underdogs that could get it done.

I hate hill I hope casey smashes her

callaway92

callaway92 wrote: »

Really like the price on Rani Yahya - always ridic underrated.

Will take a big bet on him straight win.

Medium bet on him winning by sub

Beautiful

mailburner

that was easier than expected, rest of the bets were a disaster

that'll bring vick back down to earth a little

dulux99

Woodley vs Till is now 10/11 your choice. Extremely surprised by that. I'm a huge Till fan but surely Woodley has too much for him?

KingJamsie

dulux99 wrote: »

Woodley vs Till is now 10/11 your choice. Extremely surprised by that. I'm a huge Till fan but surely Woodley has too much for him?

Till on points is 6/1...

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

Woodley vs Till is now 10/11 your choice. Extremely surprised by that. I'm a huge Till fan but surely Woodley has too much for him?

They've been joint favs for nearly a week now with hills, money came for till after they first faced off due to the size difference no doubt

I'd have been posting those exact same words as you (when Woodley hit evens) and whilst I do think Woodley might win
I'm not over confident but I'm still taking that price about Woodley all day long

Edit didn't realise they were joint favs with nearly all the Bookies now
We'll surely get evens now
Woodley pts might be alright at 10/3 also

Saying that I'd still have a Saver on till pts at 6s, doubt he'll win any other way

Paully D

dulux99 wrote: »

Woodley vs Till is now 10/11 your choice. Extremely surprised by that. I'm a huge Till fan but surely Woodley has too much for him?

I think Till wins pretty easily, but I’ve been wrong once or twice before :pac:

dulux99

Paully D wrote: »

dulux99 wrote: »

Woodley vs Till is now 10/11 your choice. Extremely surprised by that. I'm a huge Till fan but surely Woodley has too much for him?

I think Till wins pretty easily, but I’ve been wrong once or twice before :pac:

I've been wrong an awful lot more than i've been right recently so I've tapered off bigtime on my MMA betting. I watched the Darren Till interviews from the media day and he just miserable at the moment. To be fair though, maybe he just is refreshingly honest - most people training for a fight like this are probably miserable and give it the "i've had the best camp of my life" rhetoric.
I do worry about the weight cut though. If Woodley pressures him from the outset he may struggle to keep up I feel. Wonderboy didn't exactly do that in Liverpool, he almost let Till dictate the pace. Woodley will make him work and force him into scrambles. Really hope Till pulls it off though, the UFC needs him

ASOT

dulux99 wrote: »

I've been wrong an awful lot more than i've been right recently so I've tapered off bigtime on my MMA betting. I watched the Darren Till interviews from the media day and he just miserable at the moment. To be fair though, maybe he just is refreshingly honest - most people training for a fight like this are probably miserable and give it the "i've had the best camp of my life" rhetoric.
I do worry about the weight cut though. If Woodley pressures him from the outset he may struggle to keep up I feel. Wonderboy didn't exactly do that in Liverpool, he almost let Till dictate the pace. Woodley will make him work and force him into scrambles. Really hope Till pulls it off though, the UFC needs him

I just hope it's not a stinker like the Woodley Wonderboy fights.

dulux99

The more I look into Woodley vs Till in betting terms - 15/8 for the fight to go the distance with Powers stands out to me in a big way. I'm getting on that now nice and early.

Also for this weekend I'm taking Soren Bak at 4/6 to beat Paddy Pimblett. I know nothing about Soren Bak but I'll bet against Pimblett every week if I could. He's great craic but he's a C level fighter at best.

The two bets above doubled pays almost 4/1. Gimme gimme gimme

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

The more I look into Woodley vs Till in betting terms - 15/8 for the fight to go the distance with Powers stands out to me in a big way. I'm getting on that now nice and early.

Also for this weekend I'm taking Soren Bak at 4/6 to beat Paddy Pimblett. I know nothing about Soren Bak but I'll bet against Pimblett every week if I could. He's great craic but he's a C level fighter at best.

The two bets above doubled pays almost 4/1. Gimme gimme gimme

he's shortened a lot in price in the past few weeks and like you I usually take paddy on altho It didnt work out well last time

also think the pts is the right call at the right price and a bit of value and am thinking of going with that also tho I also like woodley round 5 at 30/1 as if till is behind I think he might go head hunting and get knocked out

I think it'll be a dire fight with both being very cautious in the first couple of rounds and if I could bet on a very low number of significant strikes I would

edit, distance bet is best at 6/4 now...another bookie is 5/6 on same

mailburner

having looked at soren bak who's a wrestler with 6 subs wins (pp 7), no sub losses and one loss overall, he's surely a great bet to beat paddy
4/5 with bet365
pity theres no method of victory market anywhere

he did call out paddy also so he knows :pac:

weemcd

Have a few quid on Soren Bak, can't stand Pimblett, so probably picking emotionally with this one.

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

edit, distance bet is best at 6/4 now...another bookie is 5/6 on same

Yeah it's rare to see paddy's going best price on anything so that's why I took the 15/8 while it was going. Had a 3pt bet on a single so happy I took it while it was there. You're right though I don't expect it to be an enthralling contest, both are cautious fighters.

mailburner

I'm giving up betting if bak can't beat paddy

mailburner

jesus lads heart attack stuff there, that was so deep i dont know how hes
still in it

should be all bak now lol

mailburner

after round one 13/8 bak 4/9 pp

after round two 1/4 bak 11/4 pp

not sure why so short but bookies know dont they :pac: