UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

I am all over Woodley double chance KO/TKO or Submission at 3/1. Tills best one was against Cerrone in my opinion because I dont think he would have got the Thompson decision if that fight wasn't in Liverpool and he didn't even make weight.

mailburner

ASOT wrote: »

Going in heavy on Sanchez @ 7/4

mailburner wrote: »

I don't know enough about white to comment but his price does seem
very short given he's not beaten anyone
the sanchez pts at 5/1 certainly caught my eye though

great shout Asot and thank you

Axwell

Acca for a bit of interest

Zabit Ko/Sub
Andrade dec
Suarez dec
Price Ko/Sub
Dodson dec
Woodley dec

€5 returns €883

ASOT

mailburner wrote: »

great shout Asot and thank you

Lovely man delighted, lads I need till and Dodson for nicek money.

tinpib

tinpib wrote: »

Carla Esparza is 4/1, think that's a huge price for someone who nearly always go to decision, 5/1 if you want her to win by decision.

Can't recall her opponent's fights, her record seems impressive with plenty of finishes but my gut tells me the pricing is wrong. Carla may not win but I think the 5/1 is great value, it also wouldn't be the first UFC hype train to be derailed.

BOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!!! Called yet another fight spot on. :pac::pac:

JoeyJJ

So haven't been betting much this year and betfair hounding me for a free bet which I placed and won on some MMA so some cash in there for a decent high price bet for a significant return.

Conor to win 3rd round 14/1 feck it...

mailburner

Think there's a bit of value in the taisumov sub at 14s (betstars), he's gone the distance once in his 26 wins, with 15 kos and 9 subs 1pts win (1 other)
the ko win is evens, pts win is 5/2 so the sub win surely shouldn't be that big imo
his opponent has never been knocked out either with 5 of his 7 losses on pts and 2 by sub and is 2/2 in the ufc having faced good fighters in all four bouts, has beaten josh emmet also

treble of tais sub oleynik sub blach dec @194/1

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Think there's a bit of value in the taisumov sub at 14s (betstars), he's gone the distance once in his 26 wins, with 15 kos and 9 subs 1pts win (1 other)
the ko win is evens, pts win is 5/2 so the sub win surely shouldn't be that big imo
his opponent has never been knocked out either with 5 of his 7 losses on pts and 2 by sub and is 2/2 in the ufc having faced good fighters in all four bouts, has beaten josh emmet also

treble of tais sub oleynik sub blach dec @194/1

feck it pts win taisumov, wont ever back him for a sub again after that showing

Mellor

Boyles are sneaky fucks. Beware guys

Outlaw Pete

That's very odd, the article also talks about the 'bottle throwing' bet being available at 7/2:

But they have that bet now down to 6/4:

I expect the bet was available but they pulled it as it was popular.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I expect the bet was available but they pulled it as it was popular.

Or the bet was never there and the object throwing shortened from 7/2 to 6/4 because people thought they were betting on the whiskey

tinpib

dulux99 wrote: »

If you fancy Conor then nows the time to get on him. I guarantee you he will be favourite on fight night. The casual money will pile on him. Lest we forget he shortened from 8/1 to 4/1 against Floyd feckin Mayweather in a boxing match.

Thought I had thanked this post before, it planted the seed in my head so backed him at 2.48 around the time of this post in early/mid August.

Price went out to 2.52 or so for a while, and generally bounced around at 2.46 to 2.48.

It's no concidence that today, the day of the first press conference, is the first day that Conor's price shortened. Currently 2.32 to back on Betfair, no doubt still some value there if you fancy to back it now so not after timing.

The Joe 6-pack money should continue to flow onto Conor between now and the day of the fight, where I hope/expect it will shorten even more and then I will trade out. Cheers for the heads up Dulux.

Outlaw Pete

Pretty sure he mentioned Proper 12 at the presser :P

Someone in the know must have lumped on for them to pull the bet rather than just shorten the odds.

Damn, would have liked a slice of that. Contacted them last night via Live Chat and on Twitter but they just told me the market was closed on the bet.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Someone in the know ....

Hardly needed to be in the know I'd have been putting the account balance on it

Outlaw Pete

Mellor wrote: »

Hardly needed to be in the know I'd have been putting the account balance on it

Same here, but for them to make a market no longer available, rather than just shorten the odds, that's not just one or two large bets being placed, Mellor, that's some serious activity that would have them doing that.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Same here, but for them to make a market no longer available, rather than just shorten the odds, that's not just one or two large bets being placed, Mellor, that's some serious activity that would have them doing that.

Not really. Max bet on the novelty markets is tiny. They don't usually accept serious money.
Plus it was a one horse market. In a normal market, odds shorten, to the make the opposing bet more popular in order to balance the books. In this one

Maybe they took a massive hit in exposure and pull it.
but I wouldn't put it past them to intentional have the dead link plan from the start in order to get hits on the other markets.
Cynical I know.

dulux99

Did anyone here actually get on the bet? I'd be surprised if they took anything at all on it. One 3 figure bet and the market will be whipped, for Mellor's reasoning above. Any bet from a bookies point of view has a percentage attached to it and a bet like that is a deathtrap if they took it on.

Mellor

dulux99 wrote: »

Did anyone here actually get on the bet? I'd be surprised if they took anything at all on it. One 3 figure bet and the market will be whipped, for Mellor's reasoning above. Any bet from a bookies point of view has a percentage attached to it and a bet like that is a deathtrap if they took it on.

I seen it early on another site. When I hit the link, it brought me to the press conference market, but put a different bet on my slip. If the whiskey bet was deleted, I'd have expected the link to be a dead link. The fact it put a different bet in the basket was a bit suspect. And dodgy either way.

mailburner

naive of me thinking I'd be getting around 5/4 on the oliveira sub :pac:

8/15 ffs
that has to be the shortest price ever for a sub win

still he gets it done early for me and 5/4 for the sub win in round one looks ok (pp)

Axwell

Mellor wrote: »

I seen it early on another site. When I hit the link, it brought me to the press conference market, but put a different bet on my slip. If the whiskey bet was deleted, I'd have expected the link to be a dead link. The fact it put a different bet in the basket was a bit suspect. And dodgy either way.

Cant imagine it being an accident, looked very shady. Did you come across any backlash on their twitter or anywhere about it at the time?

dulux99

Those bets are a load of sh*te anyway. Their sole purpose is for screenshots of the page to go viral, its the cheapest marketing they'll ever do. Most of the time it works aswell, case and point were all discussing boyles now!

Axwell

mailburner wrote: »

naive of me thinking I'd be getting around 5/4 on the oliveira sub :pac:

8/15 ffs
that has to be the shortest price ever for a sub win

still he gets it done early for me and 5/4 for the sub win in round one looks ok (pp)

Think he gets the sub alright, just depends if it gets dragged into the second round. If he can land a few decent shots first and then get it to the ground early its done. Will be looking at adding it with Santos and Alvey by KO but need to see what the odds work out at.

mailburner

am wondering about santos myself

have never seen anders in any kind of trouble and he has ko power also, could see him catching santos at some stage and if this goes past the first I really fancy anders who really has a point to prove after that stinker last time out

love santos and the way he fights but if he comes out swinging I could see him going down quite early and I'm not sure he's knows any other way :pac:

Axwell

Yeah he does come out swinging and can get caught.. but i guess I'm going more in favour of his coming out swinging than his getting caught

langer91

Barao at 10/13 v Ewell

Also taking via sub at 11/4

mailburner

putting my faith in anders despite the obvious risks...he's got a chin and will need it here but he weathers the inevitable santos storm and blows him away earlyish round one late on or round two

single on oliveira sub in round one 6/5

double oliveira sub anders win 29/10

double oliveira sub anders ko 7/2


and this hit and hope one @ 77/1

Accumulator (7)
Charles Oliveira by Submission @ 1.50
Method of Victory

Charles Oliveira vs Christos Giagos

Eryk Anders @ 2.60
Fight Winner

Eryk Anders vs Thiago Santos

Under 2.5 @ 1.85
Total Rounds

Sergio Moraes vs Ben Saunders

Under 2.5 @ 1.85
Total Rounds

Thales Leites vs Hector Lombard

Francisco Trinaldo @ 1.53
Fight Winner

Francisco Trinaldo vs Evan Dunham

Marina Rodriguez @ 1.91
Fight Winner

Randa Markos vs Marina Rodriguez

Augusto Sakai by KO TKO or Disqualification @ 2.00
Method of Victory

Augusto Sakai vs Chase Sherman

Axwell

Decided to scrap my own bet as I have no luck lately with MOV accas so just said id keep it simple this time and bet on the winner of each fight...

Gillian Robertson to Win
Sergio Moraes to Win
Sakai to Win
Spann to Win
Giagos to Win
Markos to Win
Ewell to Win
Alvey to Win
Leites to Win
Anders to Win


at just over 550/1



Will keep me interested in the crap fights at least!

tinpib

tinpib wrote: »

Thought I had thanked this post before, it planted the seed in my head so backed him at 2.48 around the time of this post in early/mid August.

Price went out to 2.52 or so for a while, and generally bounced around at 2.46 to 2.48.

It's no concidence that today, the day of the first press conference, is the first day that Conor's price shortened. Currently 2.32 to back on Betfair, no doubt still some value there if you fancy to back it now so not after timing.

The Joe 6-pack money should continue to flow onto Conor between now and the day of the fight, where I hope/expect it will shorten even more and then I will trade out. Cheers for the heads up Dulux.

I got too cocky :pac:

2.32 was pretty much the shortest he got, he is right out to 2.52 now on BF. Still think that no matter what the casual money will come for McGregor the closer we get to it, the press conference on Thursday might help again.

dulux99

tinpib wrote: »

I got too cocky :pac:

2.32 was pretty much the shortest he got, he is right out to 2.52 now on BF. Still think that no matter what the casual money will come for McGregor the closer we get to it, the press conference on Thursday might help again.

I still think on fight night he will get shorter. Usually fight week in Vegas has a big effect, people in America can only have a flutter when they land in Vegas. The lack of buildup hasn't helped my theory either!

Outlaw Pete

Backing McG to win by KO/TKO. Best odds seems to be 2/1, anyone seen better?

Was gonna dutch McG to win in Rounds 1, 2 & 3 but works out even less than 2/1 (as it includes win by submission I guess) so will stick with the win by KO/TKO outright.