UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

akelly02

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Backing McG to win by KO/TKO. Best odds seems to be 2/1, anyone seen better?

Was gonna dutch McG to win in Rounds 1, 2 & 3 but works out even less than 2/1 (as it includes win by submission I guess) so will stick with the win by KO/TKO outright.

Where you getting thre 2/1 pete?

i was thinking of doing rds 1 and 2 , but think ill stick with the KO

Outlaw Pete

Betfair, here's the current markets:





You can get 5/1 on McG to win in Round 1 and bits of 8/1 were around earlier on Round 2, but dutching them only gives you 2/1.

Which isn't good value for me (even if you are getting him winning by submission thrown in - given it's not very likely).

The straight 2/1 KO/TKO seems decent.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

You can get 5/1 on McG to win in Round 1 and bits of 8/1 were around earlier on Round 2, but dutching them only gives you 2/1.

Which isn't good value for me (even if you are getting him winning by submission thrown in - given it's not very likely).

The straight 2/1 KO/TKO seems decent.

Dutching 5/1 (6.0) and 8/1 (9.0) is 3.6
Rounds 1-2 is 3.9 best price (Marathon) but 3.25 generally
So dutching gives you a 15% bonus profit there unless you've a marathon account.

KO is only 2.75, so a big slice of profit taken off to add in rounds 3-5

Outlaw Pete

Mellor, you can clearly see in the screenshot I included that McG winning by TKO/KO in any round was (and still is) 3.1 on Betfair (which is 2/1 after 5% commission). Don't know where you're getting your 7/4 (2.75) from.

Are you honestly trying to tell me that you think backing McG to win in rounds 1 or 2 (at a combined odds of 9/4) is better value than taking the 2/1 on him winning by TKO/KO in ANY round?

That makes zero sense.

You're getting three extra rounds for dropping back just a quarter of a point for heaven sake. Even if the two round bet paid half a point extra it would make little sense to take it over the bet that includes 5 rounds.

If I could get maybe 3/1 or 10/3 on dutching Rounds 1 & 2, then I would consider it.

Mellor

Jaysus, what's with the aggro? The post I quoted didn't include the betfair screenshot.

I was using bookies prices, I thought that was clear. I also specifically said where I got 2/75 from.

If you want to use betfair prices, that's fine. But there was very little available to match at 3.1 (As your screenshot shows). (URL="https://i.imgur.com/0gq0b7q.png"]It's gone now btw[/URL]. It's 3.0 now, which is 2.9 after commission.

You brought up dutching rds 1&2 and siad it was 2/1. I was pointing out that it was actually 3.6.

Are you honestly trying to tell me that you think backing McG to win in rounds 1 or 2 (at a combined odds of 9/4) is better value than taking the 2/1 on him winning by TKO/KO in ANY round?

That makes zero sense.

I never said anything about value.

The difference between 3.6 and 2.9 is not insignificant imo, reduces your options but if somebody believes rd 1+2 are are McGregors only hope, then it would make sense to opt for that over the KO anytime.

There's a KO+Round option that should give better prices once the market is bit more liquid. Currently very little available to match

akelly02

easy lads, think ill just go for the KO win

Outlaw Pete

Mellor wrote: »

The post I quoted didn't include the betfair screenshot.

Eh, the post you quoted does include the Betfair screenshot, not sure why you're saying it doesn't.

I was using bookies prices...

Aye, but it's better price on the exchanges, hence my highlighting it.

It's 3.0 now, which is 2.9 after commission.

Prices on the exchanges tend to change.....

There's still lots of 3.05 around today though, just took some of it myself in fact as I think it will be shorter again come the weekend (could be wrong of course).

if somebody believes rd 1+2 are are McGregors only hope, then it would make sense to opt for that over the KO anytime.

Nope, it wouldn't make sense to opt for two rounds over five "anytime" as the price always plays a factor in whether a particular bet is the sensible option or not and right now there is only a half point to be gained between taking a bet that gives you McGregor to win by KO/TKO anytime during the fight and a bet that means he has to win inside two.

Eddie was an easy enough win for McGregor and that even went to Round 2 and so there's every chance this could go to three or four, even if Conor dominates the fight.

For that reason I'd be looking for a hell of a lot more than a half a point more to take a bet which gives me just two rounds over one that gives me all five.

unplayable

im dutching conor round 1/2 knockout with khabib submission round 1/2 for just over evens.

cant see any other result. massive difference in khabib exact method/round prices out there worth shopping around.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Eh, the post you quoted does include the Betfair screenshot, not sure why you're saying it doesn't

I couldn't see it displayed in thread on the phone. I had to link at the top which I missed.

Aye, but it's better price on the exchanges, hence my highlighting it.

But it's wasn't a better price on betfair for that market, that's was the point.
Bookies prices were 6.0 and 9.0, Exchange 6.2 and 8.5. Improved slightly since.
Exchanges are only better when the market is liquid and the overround reduced. I expect prices to be better on the method markets by friday.

Prices on the exchanges tend to change.....

There's still lots of 3.05 around today though, just took some of it myself in fact as I think it will be shorter again come the weekend (could be wrong of course).

Obviously prices change, in my screensghot there was no 3.05 available. I was talking about the prices at that time.
Not sure why you are being so defensive.
If YOU think 5 rounds better value, that;'s the bet YOU should take. I never comment which bet I thought was better value. I was just pointing out that you dutching calculation was off. There's a significant difference between 3.0 and 3.6.

FWIW, current best price including exchanges gives 3.87 (3.77 after commission).

Nope, it wouldn't make sense to opt for two rounds over five "anytime" as the price always plays a factor in whether a particular bet is the sensible option or not and right now there is only a half point to be gained...

It's a gain of 0.8, so closer to a full point, might get there by friday.
Maybe that's not enough for you because you think "there's every chance this could go to three or four". But read my actual post;

if somebody believes rd 1+2 are McGregors only hope, then it would make sense to opt for that over the KO anytime.

Do you see the difference?

If someone things 3-5 KOs are a possibility, the KO price is best.
If somebody thinks 1-2 are the only possibility, then the 1+2 ducth price is best.

Disagreeing with the second line is mathematically wrong. But, bookies make a living off punters not understand basic maths (as well as bad predictions)

Mellor

In case it's not clear, I personally don't think that rd 1 and 2 are the only options.
Khabib is not Diaz. I'll probably have some money in the championship rounds

Outlaw Pete

Mellor wrote: »

I couldn't see it displayed in thread on the phone.

So you got it wrong then? So why not just say 'Sorry, my bad, Pete' so we can then move on rather than post these excuses which I now have to address?

Look, even if you couldn't see the screenshot displayed on your phone (as you claim) you still would have had no problem seeing the first line of my post which also made it clear that I was referring to the Betfair market:

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Betfair, here's the current markets:

So it was very clear that the price I was quoting was from Betfair.

But it's wasn't a better price on betfair for that market, that's was the point.

Of course it was a better price, Mellor, that's why when I initially posted and said that I was backing McGregor at 2/1 to win by KO/TKO, akelly02 replied and asked me:

akelly02 wrote: »

Where you getting the 2/1 pete?

Why do you think he did that if the price was better elsewhere?

Obviously prices change, my I posted there was no 3.05 available.

Baloney. When you posted the price was 3.05. In any case, the price was not as low as 2.75 which is what you posted:

Mellor wrote: »

KO is only 2.75, so a big slice of profit taken off to add in rounds 3-5

As for the 5 rounds TKO bet vs Rounds 1 & 2 dutched:

It was (and is) my view that taking 2/1 on McGrgeor to win by TKO/KO in any of the 5 Rounds is a more sensible bet than taking 5/2 on him winning within the first two Rounds. Like I said, I'd be wanting 3/1 to 10/3 before I'd see the latter as the more sensible option. If you don't agree with that, no bother. I think you're wrong but have no problem with you (or anyone else) airing that view............ what I do however take issue with though is when you suggest that the 2/1 which I said was available, wasn't......... and that's precisely what you did when you quoted me and said that 2.75 (7/4) was the best price available for McGregor to win by TKO in any round, as it implies that I deliberately said a price was available which wasn't. It's bad form.

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

So you got it wrong then? So why not just say 'Sorry, my bad, Pete' so we can then move on rather than post these excuses which I now have to address?

There's no excuses. Even if I see that it was Betfair. My point remains. Your dutching calc was wrong either way.

Outlaw Pete wrote:

You can get 5/1 on McG to win in Round 1 and bits of 8/1 were around earlier on Round 2, but dutching them only gives you 2/1.

Dutching 5/1 and 8/1 is 3.6, not 2/1. Which is still bigger than the 3.0 available of Betfair. That was the point.
So why not just say 'Sorry, my bad, mellor' so we can then move on.

Of course it was a better price, Mellor,

Nope. I was referring to the rounds market, as I said in the bit you edited out of the quote. :rolleyes:
Bookies are still beating betfair in that area btw

Baloney. When you posted the price was 3.05.

Huh? I posted a screenshot of the marketyesterday. LMFAO. You actually arguing with a screenshot?

Mellor wrote:

https://i.imgur.com/0gq0b7q.png[/URL]It's gone now btw. It's 3.0 now, which is 2.9 after commission.

In any case, the price was not as low as 2.75 which is what you posted:

I said that was the price on marathon. Mate, time to get over it.

It was (and is) my view that taking 2/1 on McGrgeor to win by TKO/KO in any of the 5 Rounds is a more sensible bet than taking 5/2 on him winning within the first two Rounds.

That's great, but that excludes you from "somebody who believes rd 1+2 are are McGregors only hope". I'm not sure how you're still not getting that.

what I do however take issue with though is when you suggest that the 2/1 which I said was available, wasn't......... and that's precisely what you did when you quoted me and said that 2.75 (7/4) was the best price available for McGregor to win by TKO in any round, as it implies that I deliberately said a price was available which wasn't. It's bad form.

My point was never that you were lying about a price FFS. I was correcting your mis-calc on the dutching.
If I said 2.75 was best price on Betfair, then sure I'd be calling you a liar. But I clearly stated that I was talking about a bookie (marathon). I missed that you were including betfair, simple mistake. But are taking it weirdly personal.

Outlaw Pete

Mellor wrote: »

Bookies are still beating betfair in that area btw

Tell us who this bookie was then that was given 2/1 (or better) on that market the other night, and more importantly, why didn't you quote them if they were? Why only cite the 7/4 Marathon were given if you're in the know of a Bookie that was bettering 2/1.

Huh? I posted a screenshot of the marketyesterday. LMFAO. You actually arguing with a screenshot?

The screenshot you posted says 3.0 not the 2.75 which was what you quoted:

Mellor wrote: »

KO is only 2.75, so a big slice of profit taken off to add in rounds 3-5

And besides, even it was backed down to 1.11, so what? It was 3.1 when I posted it and that's all that matters.

I missed that you were including betfair, simple mistake.

Okay, so, no bother.

shocksy

Just took best price 6/4 on Conor to win on Betfair sportsbook. I reckon that price will shorten before the fight.

akelly02

shocksy wrote: »

Just took best price 6/4 on Conor to win on Betfair sportsbook. I reckon that price will shorten before the fight.

6/4 with boyles also

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Tell us who this bookie was then that was given 2/1 (or better) on that market the other night,

Where did I say the KO market was better with a bookie? Reading comprehension FTW.

The screenshot you posted says 3.0...

Oh it does, but I thought that was baloney Pete?

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Baloney. When you posted the price was 3.05

I presume you see the irony?

Outlaw Pete

Mellor wrote: »

Where did I say the KO market was better with a bookie? Reading comprehension FTW.

Jesus Titty Christ..........

Mellor, this is the last time I'm going to point this out. You're deliberately obfusticating. Here's the convo re: the market price which I highlighted:

Mellor wrote: »

I also specifically said where I got 2.75 from.

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Aye, but it's a better price on the exchanges, hence my highlighting it.

Mellor wrote: »

But it's wasn't a better price on betfair for that market, that's was the point.

That is clearly you saying that the market I highlighted wasn't best priced on Betfair.

Oh it does, but I thought that was baloney Pete?

What's baloney is that when you posted I checked the Betfair market and the price was still available at 3.05. Not denying that it was 3.0 when you checked it, just don't see the significance and all you highlighting that does is bring into question why you were bothering to cite Marathon's 2.75 when you knew the price was at least 3.0 on Betfair.

Well, it's obvious why you did that, as you just wanted to undermine my saying that the dutching of Rounds 1 & 2 wasn't a sensible bet given it only meant gaining half a point or so. Using Marathon's 2.75 rather than the Betfair market price meant it was a little easier for you to make that argument, right

D.Q

Feel like I've wandered into a maths book.

KingJamsie

Outside of the main event I like:

Sergio Pettis by decision @ Evens PP

Pettis is coming off a big win against Benavidez & his opponent, 33 year old Furmiga, has some decision losses against the big names of the division.

& Felice Herrig by submission @ 12/1 PP

With any strawweight bout the chances of the fight going the distance is high. Waterson has some losses by rear naked choke & Saturday night could be another one in my opinion.

(Double 25/1)

mailburner

Is the 2/1 on osp insanely good value or am I missing something?
his last four losses were to latifi, manuwa, jones and oezd..two of which were pts losses
only other two losses since 2010 were to bader and mousasi and both of those were pts losses.
He has won 3 of his last 4 by sub and the sub is imo a massive price at 5/1

reyes has looked good but who has he beaten?


If reyes comes out swinging thinking he can blow away osp in the same fashion as these nobodies he has beaten I think he'll be in a for a surprise.
He's 8/11 to win by ko :eek:

I might have egg on my face but for christs sake how reyes is that short is beyond me...

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

Is the 2/1 on osp insanely good value or am I missing something?
his last four losses were to latifi, manuwa, jones and oezd..two of which were pts losses
only other two losses since 2010 were to bader and mousasi and both of those were pts losses.
He has won 3 of his last 4 by sub and the sub is imo a massive price at 5/1

reyes has looked good but who has he beaten?


If reyes comes out swinging thinking he can blow away osp in the same fashion as these nobodies he has beaten I think he'll be in a for a surprise.
He's 8/11 to win by ko :eek:

I might have egg on my face but for christs sake how reyes is that short is beyond me...

Reyes is undefeated with 8 of his 9 wins coming in Round 1, pretty impressive.
Whilst he hasn't beaten any of the top guys, he finished Cannonier who wasn't stopped by Blachowicz, Teixeira or Cutelaba.

OSP is definitely a step up though but OSP tends to lose to strikers & would be mad not to try and take it down.
I definitely see value in OSP here, especially by Sub where he is 9/2
Reyes Average fight time is 3:15 so Reyes in 1 isnt bad at 17/10

mailburner

been on the fence with this one for quite a while but after watching the alvarez beating last night again I feel it'll be a conor ko in the first or second.

have a double done already of mcsweeney (ksw card...only betway have prices) and lentz at around evens as a banker

looking at doing a few singles/multiples on these at fancy prices also

ferguson round two and round three
volkov round two and round three...worried about pts there though
conor round one and round two
osp to win by sub and osp to win in round two

mailburner

khabib not to land a takedown is 6/1 with pp

it's quite possible

Mellor

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Mellor, this is the last time I'm going to point this out. You're deliberately obfusticating. Here's the convo re: the market price which I highlighted:

Why are you cutting out half my post to make out I've said something different. Bad form.

Mellor wrote:

But it's wasn't a better price on betfair for that market, that's was the point. Bookies prices were 6.0 and 9.0, Exchange 6.2 and 8.5..

See the bit in bold. Those are the prices for the round betting market, not the KO market. Because that's the market you'd be dutching. That market was better with the bookies.

Not denying that it was 3.0 when you checked it

You actually did

OutlawPete wrote:

Baloney. When you posted the price was 3.05.

just don't see the significance and all you highlighting that does is bring into question why you were bothering to cite Marathon's 2.75 when you knew the price was at least 3.0 on Betfair.

I didn't know what Betfair price was for my first post. I've already admitted that.

Using Marathon's 2.75 rather than the Betfair market price meant it was a little easier for you to make that argument, right

But it made no difference to my argument that whether I used marathon or betfair. Dutching is bigger than either.
You said it was 2/1 when dutching, that was the incorrect price, wasn't it?

Pete, I was just correcting the dutching price you posted, I wasn't trying to undermine you. I've no idea why you are making this into such a big deal. The gambling forum is full of sad fools twisting and sniping each other. It's not about that here.

Mr. Manager

Lads, can ya not give it a rest? You're both right. Does that make this stop?

Mellor

KingJamsie wrote: »

Felice Herrig by submission @ 12/1 PP

I like that bet. VBut Herrig has a habit of under performing when I pick her. :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

I definitely see value in OSP here, especially by Sub where he is 9/2

Feel like you can never count out a Von Flue Saint Preux choke with him. Tempted

mdwexford

McGregor to win by ko/tko or Khabib to win by decision, 4/5 with Powers.
Like finding money in the street.

Mellor

mdwexford wrote: »

McGregor to win by ko/tko or Khabib to win by decision, 4/5 with Powers.
Like finding money in the street.

Jaysus, that's a odd market to offer given that's Joe Punters only perceived outcomes. Paddy sweating the submission

JJayoo

Good odds on Pettis, I can't see how Tony can be 100% in such a short time period.

weemcd

JJayoo wrote: »

Good odds on Pettis, I can't see how Tony can be 100% in such a short time period.

Fair point, wonder could Pettis give him problems with leg kicks? I know Pettis ain't what he used to be but he's faced some serious competition over the years, very experienced.