UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Mellor

Whelo79 wrote: »

It really depends on your perception as to whether certain preperations are right or wrong, good or bad. Max could be fresh and revitalised, Volkanovski could be banged up and over trained.

We'll only know on the night, but personally I don't think the change in preperations will effect Max negatively.

It’s possible to go too hard in camp and burn out. And advantages to coming in fresh.
But Max is at another extreme. No sparring, no training partners, no coaches, he wasn’t even at the gym.

I don’t think Volk’s camp was over the top chute box camp or anything. I just know he brought in outside sparring partners since lockdown lifted. Stark contract to Max’s camp.

weemcd

I wouldn't be looking at Jorge at all unless somebody wants a tasty KO at good odds if it's available. Look at his recent fights over the last few years and he wins by KO or loses a decision. Usman is quietly building to be a top p4p fighter right now, if not number 1.

Haven't stayed up for a main event in a while now but I'm considering it for this one.

randomchild

Think Jorge took the fight knowing that a solid performance would earn him a rematch and even more money, on top of what has to be a great payday for him.

Having said that, I think people are understimating his chances, he is a very dangerous fighter in any position on his feet and Usman will have to be very wary. 11/3 on a KO/TKO finish seems like a big price given the magic Masvidal is capable of.

mailburner

I've settled on the usman volkan double

Burns...made me laugh


“I think it’ll be a hard fight for Masvidal,” Burns said. “Especially we know his lifestyle here in Florida. They might make it up for the TV, for you guys, but we know. He goes crazy. He doesn’t eat good – he was just on the Brazilian barbecue, making a post the other day, and his shape doesn’t lie. The first picture that I saw, he’s getting tested, he’s got skinny arms and a big belly, so I don’t think he’ll be in good shape.

eagle eye

I can't see any way Masvidal lasts five rounds without a camp.

randomchild

eagle eye wrote: »

I can't see any way Masvidal lasts five rounds without a camp.

I don't think that would be his game plan with or without a camp. After seeing Usman go against Colvington I don't think there are many that see taking him to the cards as a path to victory (maybe Colvington, think he was winning that fight up to the ko, if his jaw didn't get broken who knows).

mailburner

camp or no camp he's fought everyone and hasn't been stopped since 2009
He's possibly the toughest guy in the ufc

I think usman will be happy enough outpointing him myself

mailburner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w49_uH86gQ4

only tko loss on masvidals record, wasn't aware it was a joke
of a stoppage though until now

joeguevara

Masvidal down a cornerman after testing positive for Covid.

Homelander

Actually Masvidal does look fairly out of shape. I know it's a huge payday at short notice so can't blame the guy but it would be a shame to see him in there operating way under potential.

eagle eye

He has to lose 20 pounds in a week, no camp. No chance he has the fitness to last five rounds.

mailburner

Homelander wrote: »

Actually Masvidal does look fairly out of shape. I know it's a huge payday at short notice so can't blame the guy but it would be a shame to see him in there operating way under potential.

I think he's so happy about his payday that he won't be that
bothered about losing....as long as there's more paydays

mailburner

eagle eye wrote: »

He has to lose 20 pounds in a week, no camp. No chance he has the fitness to last five rounds.

Almost anyone else I'd agree, he shouldn't be able to but I'll
bet he does :pac:

SlowBlowin

I wonder what odds are of Page's arm giving up again ? She is talented, but shes broken the screws in her arm plate twice in the last few years.

Also she seems very preoccupied with life outside MMA/UFC, I wonder if her heart and body are up to a hard fight ?

Mellor

mailburner wrote: »

Almost anyone else I'd agree, he shouldn't be able to but I'll
bet he does :pac:

Cutting the weight is no more difficult without a camp.
He's only start cutting a week out anyway. So no doubt that he makes 170.


But he won't be 5 round fit. Not in Abu Dhabi climate.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

would usman volkan at evens be a better shout? only a few pricing yet so maybe there'll be slightly better odds available.

Usman on the drift, double as big as 2.18 now so hoping for 5/4 by tomorrow evening

Tilikum17

I did usman, Max & Aldo

Chancing me arm.

Would return €300

joeguevara

Most of the regular people who post regularly here have infinitely more knowledge about ufc than me. Also when I am watching it I literally can't score the fights, (but I think that is a common thing).

But I do follow every single thing religiously and I have to say that anyone who thinks that masvidal has not had a full camp is wrong. He has been training for Usman probably longer than Usman has had a full camp. He was sparring poirier and had the best grappling camp I have seen. The vlog I have been watching blew me away and it is confusing to read people say that it he is il prepared.

I reckon he will win, not easy but by a stoppage but I could be talking out my a55. Honestly I did think poirier was going to be whipped two weeks ago.

Brussels Sprout

I read somewhere that the vast majority of bets are on Masvidal (90% volume on one site) but that the biggest bets are going on Usman.

tinpib

My usual value bets [all prices B365]:

Max looked so, so good for so long I think there is definitely value there at 2.8, but I'm a greedy pig so went with points at 4.33

I thought Aldo was value but didn't realise he had so many recent losses, so skipped it. I always thought Yan seemed over rated but I remember he did look very good last time out so went for him.

Have got caught out backing the heaviest women's fav of the night before, although Paige has been outclassed recently I think 6.5 is worth a punt, I was thinking of shopping around and backing her by sub but wasn't a greedy pig here.

Rose seems fragile mentally but I don't think Andrade is any great shakes so Rose by points at 3.0

Vanessa Melo is 3.0 to win, she weighed in 5lbs overweight so a no-brainer value bet to win on points at 4.75.

Davey Grant has more UFC experience than his opponent so took the 2.37

A great card though, really looking forward to it after the horrific weekend off last weekend.

al87987

Saw nothing from Max in that 1st fight that merited a rematch or that makes me think he can beat Volkanovski, going Volkan by points.

Usman to beat Masvidal on points too for me.

Yan doesn't have many big names on his record, Dodson, Faber and Rivera not really top of the division talent. He's looked good in those fights but Aldo on points is the value bet if he can get out of the blocks quickly.

Surprised Rose is such a heavy fav against Andrade, Andrade has the heaviest hands in the division, beat Rose in their last fight and is always dangerous. Feel too much being put on her quick title loss last time out. Go andrade for the win, cannot do decision enhancer as her power can end fights early.

mailburner

Only got 11/10 Usman volkan

I'm far too confident for my own good, chickened out in adding yan given he's not fought a top guy
I still think he'll get it done.

Usman pts
Rose pts
Volkan pts
Yan ko or sub
Trebles/accum

Porthallian

Anyone got any bets for tonight?
Not much value, especially in the Main Event.
Rivera vs Stamann very close in the odds and on paper.

Rivera 3 losses in his last 4, albeit to the top 3 BWs Yan, Aljo, Marlon. Also he hasn't fought in a year.
I think Cody outpoints him, so I'm going for the 7/4 Cody decision. There may be better odds elsewhere FWIW.

tinpib

Tonight's value for the laugh

Meatball Molly is only 1.95 for decision.

John Philips is 3.75, has lots of experience against an inexperieinced opponent, I get a whiff of classic UFC hype train.

2 UFC debuts at LH with similar records, the outsider at 2.4 is Michalidis who has a lot of early stoppages. Who knows what will happen.

Chris Fishgold missed weight so an automatic bet at 2.25

Diana Balbita by decision is 2.30.

No idea when I will watch this, could even be Saturday morning.

mailburner

I think there might be a bit if value in kattar pts at 11/4 (ko 10/11)

Ige is tough

Tempted by Rivera also

If I got near evens for the kattar Al Hassan double I'd bet on that though

mailburner

kattar pts 11/4

al hassan
kattar
rivera stamaan to go the distance
6/5

eagle eye

Shore by sub, Chimaev round 1 double.
Ramos sub, Michalidis by ko/tko/disq.

mailburner

does anyone think benavidez can win this rematch?
I see on mmajunkie the picks are in favour of benavidez by 11v3 which
I don't understand

I'm finding it very hard to look past the figueirido ko again (6/5)
I mean if joe can somehow get into the championship rounds he has
every chance of tiring out figueir but he hasn't a hope fighting like he did that first fight but fig will no doubt go head hunting so both could be
swinging for the rafters again early on.

I want joe to win so bad I'm tempted not to even bet on this.


I can't call gastelum hermansson but I see either winning on pts, really can't see hermannsson finishing gastelum though.
Kelvin looks in the best shape I've seen for a long time so pts at 3/1
would be my guess but still could be outworked by herm....I don't know..

The fight to go the distance at 20/21 is one I like, thought that might
have been a bit shorter



tempted to have a bet on this though
gastelum hermans to go the distance
The women to go the distance
johns jackson to go the distance
Benavidez NOT to go the distance

aound 5/1

joeguevara

What’s the card like tonight in peoples opinion. I reckon figueirdo and gastelum and Askarov for my tips. Absolutely loving the ufc all through the lockdown. Was only thinking during the week if the same results would have been there with the crowds. Noise would surely have caused different fight plans, adrenaline and possibly ref decisions. But fair play to Dana and everyone they have provided some great nights.

tinpib

Absolute disaster during the week, thought maybe my bets weren't settled, turned out I had backed nearly all losers.

Anyway, back to tonight's value:

I thought Davi Ramos was value but it turns out I didn't back him :pac:

No possible way I could cheer on an opponent of Ariane Lipski, so have her on pts at 2.4

Brett Johns has lost to high quality opponents Munhoz and Sterling, has 4 victories in UFC so defo worth a squeak at 2.7, I get a whiff of hype train off his opponent.

That's it for the value.

Joseph Duffy seems to be the shortest fav of the night at 1.28 so hopefully no shocker there.

In the big ones I've gone for Gastelum 1.9, cos I like him, and Figueredo 1.45 as I think he will be too good for Benavidez who doesn't have Father Time on his side.