UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

eagle eye

Taking Ng a chance on a special which is Benavidez, Hermansson and Fiziev all to win at 14/1.

Only bet I really like tonight is Dolidze round 1 at 3/1.

but1er

I'll have rhys mckee by ko at 14/1. He might just catch khamzat as he lunges in for takedown

Senor Frog

Gone for the low risk high reward triple :


370.25/1

Khamzat Chimaev v Rhys McKee - Method of Victory
Rhys McKee by KO/TKO
Darren Till v Robert Whittaker - Method of Victory
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO
Alexander Gustafsson v Fabricio Werdum - Method of Victory
Fabricio Werdum by Submission

Stake:
€5.00
Potential returns:
€1,856.25

mailburner

Gadzhimurad Antigulov underdog v paul craig

I'm liking that 11/10

so craig has never won or lost on pts and antigulov has one pts win but never
lost on pts and thats with 42 fights in total combined only 1 has gone the distance.

Antigulov 4ko wins, 15 subs craig 1 ko win, 12 sub yet it's 4/1v5/2 for a sub win which looks value to me (ant has 2 sub losses, craig 1)



Trinaldo is 5/6 now and has been on the drift all week, how good is herbert?
most of his wins have been by ko and Trinaldo has never been ko'd
I'll see if I can find some vid on herbert but it seems like a very big ask on
his ufc debut against a guy who's fought almost everyone.

double pay nearly 3/1

any thoughts on herbert?

Whelo79

mailburner wrote: »

Gadzhimurad Antigulov underdog v paul craig

I'm liking that 11/10

so craig has never won or lost on pts and antigulov has one pts win but never
lost on pts and thats with 42 fights in total combined only 1 has gone the distance.

Antigulov 4ko wins, 15 subs craig 1 ko win, 12 sub yet it's 4/1v5/2 for a sub win which looks value to me (ant has 2 sub losses, craig 1)



Trinaldo is 5/6 now and has been on the drift all week, how good is herbert?
most of his wins have been by ko and Trinaldo has never been ko'd
I'll see if I can find some vid on herbert but it seems like a very big ask on
his ufc debut against a guy who's fought almost everyone.

double pay nearly 3/1

any thoughts on herbert?

I didn't realise Jai Herbert got called up. I've seen a lot of his fights on Cage Warriors and was never blown away. His one loss is a first round KO to Rhys McKee.

mailburner

Whelo79 wrote: »

I didn't realise Jai Herbert got called up. I've seen a lot of his fights on Cage Warriors and was never blown away. His one loss is a first round KO to Rhys McKee.

same as that and this alone make me think Trinaldo might be way over priced, no disrespect to mckee either, just a pity this is the fight before mckee

Also having watched the mckee ko I really feel if Trinaldo connects he could be going to sleep, no doubt he'll be quicker starting off but he'll get
caught at some stage possibly

tinpib

My value bets of tonight.

I don't know anything about Rhys McKee, his opponent is 1.08, I'm just blind hoping that McKee does well and takes him to pts, Chimeav is 5.5 to win like that.

Bit surprised Carla Esparza is so big at 2.5, to win on pts is 2.87 and I took that even though it's damn all difference.

As pointed out above Paul Craig and his opponent are both submission merchants, so I'm guessing that both will be reluctant to go to ground and thus they could end up standing and trading. Craig unfrt has a glass chin so took his opponent by KO at 5.5

Have a feeling in my bones that Whitaker/Till will be a bit of a boring, cagey fight, both men will be terrified of losing, so took Whitaker on pts at 3.75.

All just my expert opinion, follow at your own risk.

mailburner

trinaldo 10/11 now :eek:

I've a feeling after watching this I'll be thinking why didn't I bet more on him...herbert looks quick and cocky so needs to be very careful later


took that, single on Antig also 11/10

antig sub 4/1 trinaldo ko 4/1 singles double

also tiny bet on antig sub rnd 2 trinaldo ko rnd 2 whittaker ko rnd 2 huge odds

mailburner

Dalby ko 4/1

pts only 6/5 really like those odds

rogieop

Whittaker
Sho gun
Gus

All by ko/tko/dq

20/1

tinpib

Seems to be a lack of interest in tonight's card judging by B365 and Hills not pricing up 2 of the prelims yet, but PP are. Only 10 fights in total as well.

Hunting for tonight's value there isn't much.

Took standard JoJo by decision at 2.1

Bobby Green and Vanata looks very even, and in fact they fought each other to a draw before. Sided with Green for value as he is 2.3

Munoz/Maness both have great records and both making their UFC debut tonight. Who knows what they are like, could be the next big thing hype train, could both be big fish in a small pond. Sided with Munoz as he is 2.2

The one price that stood out to me was the main event. This looks like it could be a classic hypetrain, skewed-odds fight. Brunson has tons of experience and has really only lost to elite fighters. His opponent is a 22 yr old with 4 from 4 in UFC. Brunson at 3.75 looks a great bet.

mailburner

worst card for betting I've seen in a while

The only thing i like is shahbazyan to win and vannata green to go the distance which combined is a little under evens

Shahbazyan is awful short but I think he'll beat Brunson possibly by ko which is a ridiculous 4/7 although I wouldn't blame anyone for backing Brunson at the odds.
Brunson will probably need to avoid trading with this guy and go for take downs.



I like jojo too but 4/6 v 11/10 pts isn't the most appealing

If here was a fotn market I wouldn't be looking past brown v luque

mailburner

much as I hate these bookies enhancements I do like this pp one

shahbazyan luque vanatta to win 3/1 next best price is 2.35/1


luque vanatta are close fights though for me

eagle eye

I like Durden by sub in the opener. I think this is priced up completely wrong, I think he's the better fighter and people have gone overboard on Gutierrez due to how he won his last fight a couple of weeks ago.
Emmers by ko in the second is another I like, his opponent was only told on Friday that he has a fight.
I like Maness by ko too. Excellent striker against another guy who only got word he's fighting on Friday.
Fancy Holland big to sub Giles, and Luque to sub Brown.
Like Vanatta to ko Green. Last time they met he was robbed despite losing a point for an illegal knee. He floored Green with a punch, he took him down a good few times too. He totally dominated the fight. He's a smart fighter too and I think he'll get it done inside the distance this time.
Calderwood decision looks a sure thing. She must be stuck for cash taking this, giving up a title fight with Shevchenko for it. I presume she'll get the title fight again if she wins this?
Main event I like Sjahbazyan by ko. Brunson is wiley and tough but he leaves himself open too often and I think Shabazyan is an elite striker and he'll finish him when he gets one of those openings.

bmcc10

tinpib wrote: »

Seems to be a lack of interest in tonight's card judging by B365 and Hills not pricing up 2 of the prelims yet, but PP are. Only 10 fights in total as well.

Hunting for tonight's value there isn't much.

Took standard JoJo by decision at 2.1

Bobby Green and Vanata looks very even, and in fact they fought each other to a draw before. Sided with Green for value as he is 2.3

Munoz/Maness both have great records and both making their UFC debut tonight. Who knows what they are like, could be the next big thing hype train, could both be big fish in a small pond. Sided with Munoz as he is 2.2

The one price that stood out to me was the main event. This looks like it could be a classic hypetrain, skewed-odds fight. Brunson has tons of experience and has really only lost to elite fighters. His opponent is a 22 yr old with 4 from 4 in UFC. Brunson at 3.75 looks a great bet.

Great shout on Brunson there really is levels to this sport it was similar to Alex Hernandez fighting Cowboy.

tinpib

bmcc10 wrote: »

Great shout on Brunson there really is levels to this sport it was similar to Alex Hernandez fighting Cowboy.

Cheers, just my opinion of course but as I said hypetrains skewing odds seems to be a regular thing in the markets in UFC. And Ive backed plenty of hypetrains myself in the past! But it's a good way to find value, I only do small stakes for the laugh to have an interest in each fight.

tinpib

Took a very quick skim of the card. A few not very big prices for value.

It sorta goes without saying I did Kunitskaya on pts at evens.

Thought Wellington Thurman/Sanchez would be closer so went with Sanchez at 2.2 for value.

I backed Derrick Lewis at 1.5 even though that feels skimpy, the 2.6 on Olenyik looks appealing, you could be forgiven for by sub at a piddly extra 0.4 pts at 3.0

Weidman looked finished but this opponent appears to be levels lower than his last god knows how many opponents, but still assumed he is finished and went for Akmedov at 2.2

Tim Means has bags of experience but a lot of losses but still took the 2.2.

Not terribly confident and didn't put in too much thought, all small stakes for the craic

mailburner

couple of small bet taken for value alone

akhmedov pts 9/2 I think it's the only way he beats Weidman and standing I think it'll be even enough

oleinik sub 11/4 He probably only needs to get Lewis down once, maybe twice...may well get beaten to a pulp also

Holtzman pts 15/4 torn between him and dariush pts tbh


singles/treble at 82/1 365

mailburner

Paddy power future champion specials...ngannou to be hw champ by jan 2022
at odds of 1/4


Who comes up with these?

Who in their right mind would back this even :pac:

mailburner

love the price on jds to beat rozenstruik 13/10

I think it's a great match up for jds similiar to when he fought hunt, lewis etc
Rozen was well behind against reem and had lost the first three rounds and jds will be harder to ko especially over 3
Jds only been finished by the very best in recent years (cain, stipe, reem ngannou and blaydes) really struggling to see why Rozen is favourite here.

I think the odds on jds pts are a bit of value also at 9/2

can't call the main event at all, no idea who comes out on top this time but I'll guess Stipe

bmcc10

Cormier and JDS double for me @3.29/1.

mailburner

pp enhancing jds O'Malley cormier to 11/2 about a point bigger that the next best

Taking that and the double of cormier ko jds points at over 17/1
And jds ko,/cormier ko 12/1

d00mk1n

PP have Suga Sean to lose by sub 8/1

Anyone tempted?

tinpib

Today's expertly chosen big priced picks:

Know nothing about Tony Kelley but 2.75 looked big

I was racking my brain why I remembered Ashley Yoder, then I remembered it's because she is gorgeous but a poor fighter. Went for her opponent on pts 2.25

Felice Herrig had improved a few fights ago, she is 35 now, but was still very surprised to see her so big against a girl with 2 UFC fights, who lost a split to Carla Esparza so this isn't the new Cyborg, possible hype train? Felice on pts at 4.5 looks great value.

Jim Miller was always good value for a loss for a while, but he has improved recently and his opponent is 37. Jim has looked good recently so took the evens, it's a close fight.

One of the best big prices of the night is John Dodson, shocked he is so big, he has lost to some elite guys and in one of his recent fights I remember he took a load of dick kicks or eye pokes, don't remember which. His opponent lost his first 2 UFC fights, and hasn't beaten elite fighters since. This guy might be pretty close to a hype train so the 3.3 on Dodson looks brilliant.

Solid logic above on JDS, elite fighter, bags of experience, Jairzinho was blessed to beat Overeem, so 2.0 on JDS looks good.

The potential hype train of the night is without doubt Suga Sean, Chito Vera has tons of experience and has lost to elite fighters. He is a huge step up in opponent for Sean, 3.1 is great and as D00mkin above says something like a sub at 8/1 looks a good value bet.

Both guys in the main event are likeable but I'm backing Stipe, as usual, as he never gets the love from backers, not surprised to see him slight outsider at 2.0. I feel he is consistently under rated and I think he may have figured out DC and hope he gets it done but won't begrudge DC the win.

All small stakes with prices from Hills due to laziness (and the aforementioned small stakes)

SlowBlowin

d00mk1n wrote: »

PP have Suga Sean to lose by sub 8/1

Anyone tempted?

Yep, I am looking at best value now, I think if Vera can get his hands on its over... the odds are too good so its going to be my big bet.

Smaller bets on Stipe and JDS.

SlowBlowin

Lucky that I went for the straight win, worked out well for me tonight...

Mellor

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Lucky that I went for the straight win, worked out well for me tonight...

Good thing you changed your bet alright :rolleyes:



Some guy put $40k on in Vegas, collected $190k.

tinpib

One of the weakest cards I can remember, just the 10 fights too, and all 4 involved in first 2 fights making their UFC debuts.

Hunting for value, OSP is evens, he lost at heavyweight last time but I thought he looked impressive the time before that at his usual light heavy.

Went for Mizuki Inoue to win on pts oddsbooster of 2.25.

However I did find one great value bet. Shana Dobson has one of the worst records I've seen on paper, 3:4 in her career, her opponent Agapova's price reflects this being around 1.06/1.1, however you can have her to win on pts at 4.33 which seems insane value to me.

That's all I've found today.

mailburner

smith too big at 9/4?

only 3 months have passed since he was mauled though so who knows
what to expect

Rakic a dark horse in the div but his price seems ridiculous

tinpib

Yes, Smith took an awful beating last time but he is not a 40 year old has-been which his price suggests, wouldn't have great faith in him winning but 3.25 is too big.

I've gone for a few fighters that I don't have a huge amount of faith in but their price is too big.

Robbie Lawler for 1, no way should Magny be priced around 1.4, it should be closer than that. Lawler is 3.0

Alexa Grasso seems far too short, so went for her opponent Kim on points at 5.5

Sean Brady has a great record but I just think 1.22 is crazy short, his opponent has had 1 UFC fight and won it, can't do more than that so took the 4.5 (I wouldn't call Sean Brady a hype train just yet)

I remember thinking Ricardo Lamas looked like an old man in his last fight but his opponent has a terrible record, has lost to some average UFC fighters when they were on the regional circuit. Took Lamas at 1.33 but his opponent would be worth a punt at the price of 3.4. Would definitely go against Lamas with an opponent with even a slightly more appealing record.

Usual wealth warning applies, all small stakes for the laugh.

It's great that UFC are filling the calendar with weekly events, no break for ages.