UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

Davei141 wrote: »

Well Soa was complete rubbish..goodbye bet ha.

Oh fuk
Thought this was tonight

Davei141

mailburner wrote: »

Oh fuk
Thought this was tonight

Apologies if i spoiled it! It was in NZ so started at 7.30am.

mailburner

Davei141 wrote: »

Apologies if i spoiled it! It was in NZ so started at 7.30am.

No worries
its a mistake i rarely make

you dont notice these things on a betting site sadly
sherdog all the way

Davei141

mailburner wrote: »

No worries
its a mistake i rarely make

you dont notice these things on a betting site sadly
sherdog all the way

Apologies still! It was a awful fight though it went exactly how you didn't want it to go. It was a very good card though, enjoy.

dulux99

Gastelum, Lamas and Swanson treble tonight. Pays about 9/4

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Gastelum, Lamas and Swanson treble tonight. Pays about 9/4

Wahey

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

few bets this weekend

all singles
main bet on the hulk with two smaller ones


the hulk at 6/5 (paddy)
the longer it goes on the more chance i'd give rosholt but
cant ignore that price


ferreira by sub 11/4 (888)
don't rate craig at all, ferreira likes subs :pac:


swanson by ko 7/4 (888)
will blow stephens away despite his toughness
his striking is on a different level

good luck with yer wans

well that went well

mailburner

machida decision just taken at 4/1 (betv)

that's all I can see
don't see any other way machida can win this given
his style

Mr. Manager

Out of curiosity, who here is backing Brandao?

Looking at the prices and I think they're crazy. Brandao @4.0 to win, 6.0 for a KO/TKO and 8.5 for a sub.

Ok, yea, Brandao has a bit of a glass jaw but still - the guy is a fucking animal and has come along way and worked his cardio so well.

Davei141

Cereal Rapist wrote: »

Out of curiosity, who here is backing Brandao?

Looking at the prices and I think they're crazy. Brandao @4.0 to win, 6.0 for a KO/TKO and 8.5 for a sub.

Ok, yea, Brandao has a bit of a glass jaw but still - the guy is a fucking animal and has come along way and worked his cardio so well.

I think Brandao is a perfect style for Conor, sloppy striker is what he thrives off and Brandao still has very questionable cardio, he only has a chance in the first round IMO.

mailburner

main bet for me this weekend is edgar points at evens

same as last time they fought I just dont see what bj is
going to do differently
struggling to see anything but a comfortable pts win for frankie

last time these two fought this was priced up at 9/2

mailburner

small one on faber in round one at 9/4 (betv)

this to me looks like the biggest mismatch since
mendes v mc kenzie thought maybe not quite that bad

if bruce gets past round one he'll be doing well
going from sergio pettis to uriah faber can only be
bad news for a fighter I've never rated (yet one who
cost me plenty beating pettis)

ASOT

Went with

Vasconcelos
Camozzi
Hall
Brimage
The Dragon

10 on returns 200.

Tempted to put stakes on Faber RD1 along with Machida KO.

Axwell

ASOT wrote: »

Went with

Vasconcelos
Camozzi
Hall
Brimage
The Dragon

10 on returns 200.

Tempted to put stakes on Faber RD1 along with Machida KO.

Where you putting the above on? You sure its not returns 100? Looked on Paddy Power and the same selections €10 would return €100.96

mailburner

Axwell wrote: »

Where you putting the above on? You sure its not returns 100? Looked on Paddy Power and the same selections €10 would return €100.96

you left out hall

should be 121
prob more with other bookies but not much

ASOT

Axwell wrote: »

Where you putting the above on? You sure its not returns 100? Looked on Paddy Power and the same selections €10 would return €100.96

Just realised i have Machida by ko which explains the odds, i have a feeling im going to live to regret that. Covered myself and done the same bet without the KO and got returns of 135 with bet365!

Axwell

ASOT wrote: »

Just realised i have Machida by ko which explains the odds, i have a feeling im going to live to regret that. Covered myself and done the same bet without the KO and got returns of 135 with bet365!

Thats more like it, same bet returns €121 on PP. I stuck in Edgar on points along with it for a bit of interest.

mailburner

one last one
pays 8/1 with paddy

dan spohn looks one of the best 2/5 shots ive seen
patrick walsh will hardly have improved much in
a few months



UFC Matches Ronda Rousey v Alexis Davis
06-07-2014 04:30
Total Rounds
Under (2.5) @ 4/11
UFC Matches Matt Mitrione v Stefan Struve
06-07-2014 04:00
Match Betting
Stefan Struve @ 8/13
UFC Matches Dhiego Lima v Eddie Gordon
07-07-2014 02:00
Match Betting
Dhiego Lima @ 4/7
UFC Matches Urijah Faber v Alex Caceres
06-07-2014 03:00
Will the fight go the distance?
No @ 4/9
UFC Matches Dan Spohn v Patrick Walsh
07-07-2014 00:00
Match Betting
Dan Spohn @ 2/5
UFC Matches Adriano Martins v Juan Manuel Puig
07-07-2014 00:00
Match Betting
Adriano Martins @ 2/7

mailburner

paddy betting now on most takedowns

a double of weidman 4/7 + rousey 2/9 works out a little under evens

you cant see machida going near weidman and it goes without saying
rhonda will have more tds in that one


edit, singles only, cnuts

mailburner

hats off to anyone who made money on either event

couldn't pick my nose lately

mailburner

gone with the treble of
parke, gunni mcgregor which works out
best at 23/20 with paddy
same bet works out at barely 5/6 with betv

Only one I dont feel certain about is parke as I dont know
his opponent

due a change of luck
If i stop these It's time to give up

bazza76dub

mailburner wrote: »

gone with the treble of
parke, gunni mcgregor which works out
best at 23/20 with paddy
same bet works out at barely 5/6 with betv

Only one I dont feel certain about is parke as I dont know
his opponent

due a change of luck
If i stop these It's time to give up

I think Parke takes it. His opponent is good, but I feel Parke in a short space of time has faced higher calibre opponents and come out looking good. I doubt Kotani will have previously faced the sort of aggression Parke will throw at him. that being said, Kotani has a slippery judo game and is quite good with submissions. Parke keeps it standing he takes an easy win.

Thatkarlfella

I've gone with a 5 fold multi of seery, gunni, Conor, parke and McCall. Think it was paying around 6/1 on sportsbet.

Also, Gunnar to win by sub is paying 2.2 dollars. Great value I think

Thatkarlfella

Thatkarlfella wrote: »

I've gone with a 5 fold multi of seery, gunni, Conor, parke and McCall. Think it was paying around 6/1 on sportsbet.

Also, Gunnar to win by sub is paying 2.2 dollars. Great value I think

Leaving him being Irish at the door do we all think McGregor can beat Brandao? He's coming of a long layoff and fighting a really good guy. Brandao, Nelson, Pickett and Latifi to win is paying 16/1 on boylesports I think.

EuskalHerria

Boylesports are refunding bets on Conor's fight, if it ends in the first round. Not a bad offer, considering many here think Diegos best chance is catching Conor in the first.

mailburner

also did the treble of

barbosa, tibau and gunni
comes in slightly over 2/1 with pp

don't rate healy at all, gunni, well I don't see a way
he can lose this
think barbosas stand up will be far too good for a very
tough opponent in evan dunham

Davei141

mailburner wrote: »

also did the treble of

barbosa, tibau and gunni
comes in slightly over 2/1 with pp

don't rate healy at all, gunni, well I don't see a way
he can lose this
think barbosas stand up will be far too good for a very
tough opponent in evan dunham

I wouldn't have the stones to back Barbosa after being almost TKO'd with a jab!

Ian Whelan

EuskalHerria wrote: »

Boylesports are refunding bets on Conor's fight, if it ends in the first round. Not a bad offer, considering many here think Diegos best chance is catching Conor in the first.

It's also good considering it's ALL markets. Powers have a similar offer but it only applies to method of victory bets.

califano

Cant see any mention of money back on Boyles!?. Linkage?

Davei141

Davei141 wrote: »

I wouldn't have the stones to back Barbosa after being almost TKO'd with a jab!

Very suspect chin, Dunham will use the same strategy as Danny Castillo but better so I think he'll take the decision.

EuskalHerria

califano wrote: »

Cant see any mention of money back on Boyles!?. Linkage?

From their twitter:

@Boylesports: CASH BACK if the McGregor v Brandao fight ends in Round 1! #UFCDublin #UFC http://t.co/xMsBOXZoBK

Thatkarlfella

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Leaving him being Irish at the door do we all think McGregor can beat Brandao? He's coming of a long layoff and fighting a really good guy. Brandao, Nelson, Pickett and Latifi to win is paying 16/1 on boylesports I think.

I think Diego is an ideal opponent for Conor tbh, as mentioned earlier by someone, Diego is a sloppy striker and Conor thrives off this. Also, I feel like Diego will be going out there to knock Conor's block off. His questionable cardio will be put to the test if it goes any further than one round.

dulux99

Went for Pendred,Latifi, Parke, McCall, and McGregor in an accum. Pays 13/2

ShagNastii

Any view that Cummings @ 3/1 is a decent price for Saturday?

dulux99

ShagNastii wrote: »

Any view that Cummings @ 3/1 is a decent price for Saturday?

Dunno if I'd back him, but I have a weird feeling about that fight. Gunni is a massive favourite and understandably, but I think 2/9 has no value whatsoever, that's why I didn't put him in my accum. Gunni is a tiny welterweight, and Cummings is fairly huge

Jimmy Bottlehead

dulux99 wrote: »

Dunno if I'd back him, but I have a weird feeling about that fight. Gunni is a massive favourite and understandably, but I think 2/9 has no value whatsoever, that's why I didn't put him in my accum. Gunni is a tiny welterweight, and Cummings is fairly huge

Gunni beat Jeff Monson 5 years ago in the ADCC... and he says he prefers fighting guys who are heavier (and slower, from his point of view).

He's a strange animal, is Gunni. I'd be behind him on this one anyways.

CurryFlavoured

Anyone else think Mike Kings odds are a bit big? 13/8 in PP. He looked very strong in the tuf qualifiers and lost to Gordon in 3 rounds like Cathal.

dulux99

Can't make my mind up about Miller/Cerrone tonight. Huge fan of Cerrone, but I think there's alot of value in 15/8 with Miller. Tibau, Barboza, Story & Miller pays about 8/1

Ian Whelan

When you consider the money back offer that Boyles have (which is very rare in so far as it applies to ALL markets and not just some markets) then surely Brandao at 31/10 with Boyles is the best value bet on the card?

He's a tough and experienced UFC campaigner who has won 7 fights from his last 9. If he loses in the first round you will get your money back, if he makes it to the second round then it's imaginable that the difference in class between him and McGregor is not as great as McGregor's price of 4/15 would suggest.

I am trying to look at the betting markets objectively and simply from a value perspective and it seems to me that this is a very good bet when viewed in light of the offer.

I would be interested in the views of others before I part with my 50 euro.

ASOT

Ian Whelan wrote: »

When you consider the money back offer that Boyles have (which is very rare in so far as it applies to ALL markets and not just some markets) then surely Brandao at 31/10 with Boyles is the best value bet on the card?

He's a tough and experienced UFC campaigner who has won 7 fights from his last 9. If he loses in the first round you will get your money back, if he makes it to the second round then it's imaginable that the difference in class between him and McGregor is not as great as McGregor's price of 4/15 would suggest.

I am trying to look at the betting markets objectively and simply from a value perspective and it seems to me that this is a very good bet when viewed in light of the offer.

I would be interested in the views of others before I part with my 50 euro.

Id have it the opposite way around, if he doesnt finish conor in the first round unless hes massively improved his cardio then the odds are in conors favour for the later rounds. IMO the better value would be backing conor in the 2/3rd round to win. If he finishes him in the first then you get your money back.

Mellor

Ian Whelan wrote: »

I would be interested in the views of others before I part with my 50 euro.

The MBS is for either fighter to finish in the first. A most of Brandao chance to win is in the first so, betting on him removes some of the value from the offer.

I'd go with a bet that opposes the MBS, say for the fight to go five rounds,
You get money back if it's snubbed in the first, and once it enters the second a decision is significantly more likely.

If you have a BF account, you could lay the decision after the first round to freeroll the bet.

Or you could bet on over 2.5/1.5 rds (PP), that way the window where you lose money is pretty small.

Mellor

ASOT wrote: »

IMO the better value would be backing conor in the 2/3rd round to win. If he finishes him in the first then you get your money back.

Boykes dint have that market, but PP do and they have the same special

ASOT

Mellor wrote: »

Boykes dint have that market, but PP do and they have the same special

Yeah i just seen it there, win in round 2 @5.5/1 is decent enough especially with the MBS, Round three with brandaos cardio looks even better @8/1

Ian Whelan

Mellor wrote: »

Boykes dint have that market, but PP do and they have the same special[/QUOTE

Powers special only applies to method of victory market i.e. will it be a KO/TKO/Submission etc. It does not apply to round betting or to outright betting. Also it's money back as a stake non-refundable free bet and not just cash like Boyles.

Mr. Manager

PP offering similar MBS - http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-matches/Conor-McGregor-v-Diego-Brandao-7099695.html

IrelandDylan

Anyone know if PP or Bet365 will have an option to pick McGregor by TKO in the second round or anything like that? Its not on either site as of yet anyways

mailburner

IrelandDylan wrote: »

Anyone know if PP or Bet365 will have an option to pick McGregor by TKO in the second round or anything like that? Its not on either site as of yet anyways

mc gregor round 2 11/2 is as close as you'll get


http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/conor-mcgregor-v-diego-brandao/round-betting
paddy

bet365 useless when it comes to mma

mailburner

ASOT wrote: »

Id have it the opposite way around, if he doesnt finish conor in the first round unless hes massively improved his cardio then the odds are in conors favour for the later rounds. IMO the better value would be backing conor in the 2/3rd round to win. If he finishes him in the first then you get your money back.

Exactly how I see it
brandao will be a spent force by the 4th round if not sooner
mc gregor will be in the shape of his life to put on a show




all are going 2/1 mcgregor first round except paddy at 3/1

2/1 a shocking price for that, brandao better than that imo

think round 3 at 8/1 and round 4 at 14/1 is a bit of value but saying
that, if the first three rounds go according to plan he might cruise
to a decision
It's one I'd rather watch though then get too involved with bettingwise

ASOT

Conor will 10000000% beat brandao, he looked sluggish in his open workout, i know that means nothing but after 5 minutes he was breathing heavish and overall seemed so slow compared to conor who more or less glided through the octagon!

Im going to be going for a second round KO but i can see it being ended early.

dulux99

Originally decided on Lineker, Story, Barboza and Cerrone, but that was just paying over 2/1, so put in Barboza to win by decision instead, which made it 8/1