UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

broders3

My bets for UFC 161

Had a double on werdum/woodley which is dependant on woodley coming through on Saturday. Werdum did the business, didn't expect him to sub nog but glad he came through all the same.

Triple for Saturday is Evans/Woodley/Nelson. Works out roughly 2.5/1 I think. I think Evans will be too fast for Hendo, both looked pretty awful in their last fights but I think Evans has a few big fights left in him. Woodley for reasons posted here already and Nelson should be able to repeat the KO trick against Miocic.

Ian Whelan

Use the bet basket option on the page below in order to work out the best prices for accumulators, there is quite a difference in the odds depending on where you go. Just select the + symbol beside your selection's name. The Nelson & Woodley double is 1.2/1 with one bookie and 1.08/1 with another. If it wins that's a difference of 1.20 euro for every 10 euro staked. It does make a difference.

http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma

Mr. Manager

broders3 wrote: »

My bets for UFC 161

Had a double on werdum/woodley which is dependant on woodley coming through on Saturday. Werdum did the business, didn't expect him to sub nog but glad he came through all the same.

Triple for Saturday is Evans/Woodley/Nelson. Works out roughly 2.5/1 I think. I think Evans will be too fast for Hendo, both looked pretty awful in their last fights but I think Evans has a few big fights left in him. Woodley for reasons posted here already and Nelson should be able to repeat the KO trick against Miocic.

Not so sure I like the treble with Evans in there.

Personally, I'd steer clear of that fight. It's so hit and miss depending on which one shows up to the fight. The only bet in there that I think is in anyway worth a punt is Henderson by TKO/KO @3.4

A better treble IMO is Woodley, Jimmo and Nelson.

I had thought about Nelson by TKO/KO but after seeing the difference in price, it's just not worth it. He's at 1.4 to win and 1.69 by TKO/KO.

mailburner

broders3 wrote: »

Had a double on werdum/woodley which is dependant on woodley coming through on Saturday.
Triple for Saturday is Evans/Woodley/Nelson. Works out roughly 2.5/1 I think. I think Evans will be too fast for Hendo, both looked pretty awful in their last fights but I think Evans has a few big fights left in him. Woodley for reasons posted here already and Nelson should be able to repeat the KO trick against Miocic.

Cant call hendo evans myself, very much a 50/50 fight imo
I love to see dan blow him away though
I don't think you'll have too many worries with woodley

Ian Whelan wrote: »

The Nelson & Woodley double is 1.2/1

I took this bet on monday night at those odds (bet365) which haven't
changed since

Cereal Rapist wrote: »

I had thought about Nelson by TKO/KO but after seeing the difference in price, it's just not worth it. He's at 1.4 to win and 1.69 by TKO/KO.

I'm hoping to do the nelson woodley ko double myself but I don't
see any prices on the woodley ko yet other than betfair

mailburner

as said above its the nelson/woodley double for me at 6/5

I'm seeing woodley winning this fight everywhere and finishing jake
I can't make a case for shield in this at all
I was planning on going as big as i could on a single on woodley
until nelson was added to the card

I don't see miocic doing anything but standing with nelson which
I think will see him being being put to sleep
I think it's a real bad match up for him

broders3

Cereal Rapist wrote: »

Not so sure I like the treble with Evans in there.

Personally, I'd steer clear of that fight. It's so hit and miss depending on which one shows up to the fight. The only bet in there that I think is in anyway worth a punt is Henderson by TKO/KO @3.4

A better treble IMO is Woodley, Jimmo and Nelson.

From an odds perspective I thought Jimmo was far too heavily favoured @ 4/11 especially as he is coming off a loss. Also, Pokrajac is tough as nails and if he can weather the Jimmo storm he is a nice long shot IMO.

I think Hendo is becoming more and more one dimensional as he gets older and he looked super slow against Machida(although he makes everyone look slow). I think Evans outworks him for a decision. Always a chance Dan lands a bomb but I don't see it in this fight.

dulux99

Im going back and forth completely on wether or not to back Rashad. I just think his speed will be key and Hendo must surely be slowing down by now, hes nearly 43. I dont have access to any betting websites at work here so he might be very short for all I know but Roland Delorme looks a certainty too.

mailburner

broders3 wrote: »

I think Evans outworks him for a decision. Always a chance Dan lands a bomb but I don't see it in this fight.

more of i think of it the more i think ye are right
evans will do what he needs to do to win
I'm trying to convince myself otherwise though
I can't remember a fight where i'm rooting for one
guy as much as this in a while (with no money on)

I'd rather watch fitch for five rounds myself

dulux99

Went with a quad - Rashad, Roland Delorme, Pat Barry and Tyrone Woodley. Pays about 7/1.

broders3

dulux99 wrote: »

Went with a quad - Rashad, Roland Delorme, Pat Barry and Tyrone Woodley. Pays about 7/1.

Really nice odds on that. Hopefully Barry pulls through for you. He is alternates a terrible performance with a good one, so hard to predict which Pat Barry shows up. Hoping he gets a win here, he is such a likeable guy.

dulux99

broders3 wrote: »

Really nice odds on that. Hopefully Barry pulls through for you. He is alternates a terrible performance with a good one, so hard to predict which Pat Barry shows up. Hoping he gets a win here, he is such a likeable guy.

Exactly yeah, normally i'd never ever back him because he's the Liverpool of the UFC but i said id take a chance. He's one of my favourite fighters so i said why not

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

Exactly yeah, normally i'd never ever back him because he's the Liverpool of the UFC but i said id take a chance. He's one of my favourite fighters so i said why not

lol
you couldnt possibly have put that any better

I lose when i back him everytime but that is a very nice
price which would be much the same with shawn jordan in it
you have me thinking of doing an accum now


Took woodley to win by ko/tko at 12/5 with paddy
befair the only others i see doing it (15/8)
I think that's a big price and i see him doing the same to
shields as what ellenberger did


l laughed when i read this
A bigger name after beating herman and sexyama ffs
I predict he won't be saying this after woodley puts him away
there's as much chance of me knocking out shields as there is
of shields knocking out woodley

by Adam Guillen Jr. from MMAmania.com on May 7, 2013 9:00 PM EDT
Jake Shields was expecting a bigger "name" than Tyron Woodley for his next fight inside the Octagon, but says he will submit or knockout "T-Wood" when the two scrappy welterweights collide at UFC 161 in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada on June 15, 2013.
http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fight/1840/ufc-150-ed-herman-vs-jake-shields

mailburner

can't stop looking at these markets at all
another for me

double pays 11.5/1

UFC Matches Roy Nelson v Stipe Miocic
16-06-2013 04:15
Round Betting
Roy Nelson To Win in Round 1 @ 6/4
UFC Matches Jake Shields v Tyron Woodley
16-06-2013 02:00
Round Betting
Tyron Woodley To Win in Round 1 @ 4/1

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

can't stop looking at these markets at all
another for me

double pays 11.5/1

UFC Matches Roy Nelson v Stipe Miocic
16-06-2013 04:15
Round Betting
Roy Nelson To Win in Round 1 @ 6/4
UFC Matches Jake Shields v Tyron Woodley
16-06-2013 02:00
Round Betting
Tyron Woodley To Win in Round 1 @ 4/1

That's very saucy, gonna stick a fiver on it myself now

calex71

Hendo V Evans is 3 rounds is not guys?? might do a method of win / round if so

mailburner

calex71 wrote: »

Hendo V Evans is 3 rounds is not guys?? might do a method of win / round if so

Three rounds

scudzilla

I see Hendo winning this on decision all day long, Rashad has gone down hill a lot lately, if it had been a 5 rounder then Rashad could have nicked it, but 3 and it's Hendo's

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Went with a quad - Rashad, Roland Delorme, Pat Barry and Tyrone Woodley. Pays about 7/1.

No luck with the quad but I stuck another fiver on the delorme fight to be FOTN at 18/1 and I think I'm in with a good shout with that, fingers crossed. Shocking night of fights all the same.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

as said above its the nelson/woodley double for me at 6/5

Think I underestimated miocic, talk about beating the piss out
of nelson and making him look below average
the fact that he landed more strikes than jds is incredible

mailburner wrote: »

Took woodley to win by ko/tko at 12/5 with paddy



]

Pure muck by woodley
I don't know how he couldn't beat shields
it was a pretty tame effort by him and a few more
leg kicks wouldnt have gone astray given the damage
he was doing with them
There didn't seem to much urgency at any stage from him

Only finished it yesterday myself
first reverse in a while so here's hoping it's not time
for another bad run

Jimmy Bottlehead

Lads, I've a silly question.

I've started throwing down a few euro on accumulators on some UFC events (I've never bet apart from that), but whenever I go into Paddy Power, they're clueless about it.

i just write the names and amount down, but the cashier never writes that it's an accumulator or what the odds / payout would be.

On the off chance I win, will Paddy Power kick up a fuss about it or whatever?
I don't bet online as I don't want it showing on my cards (even if it's only ever €10).

califano

Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »

Lads, I've a silly question.

I've started throwing down a few euro on accumulators on some UFC events (I've never bet apart from that), but whenever I go into Paddy Power, they're clueless about it.

i just write the names and amount down, but the cashier never writes that it's an accumulator or what the odds / payout would be.

On the off chance I win, will Paddy Power kick up a fuss about it or whatever?
I don't bet online as I don't want it showing on my cards (even if it's only ever €10).

This is normal, if its isnt a horse, dog or football match your betting on they are clueless. They would assume its an accum but just write 'accum' on the docket every time to be sure. They would settle it ok, if its a well run shop bets will often be settled by the time you come to collect.

If you dont want to bet in a shop and dont want anything to show up on your cards you can always fund an online account in pp shop and withdraw there also, more details on site.

broders3

Really like this card from a betting perspective. I think Anderson at 2/5 is tremendous value, I really don't see him losing this fight. Weidman is great up and coming fighter but a win over a hurt munoz doesn't make him an Anderson beater in my opinion. The fact Weidman hasn't been in the cage for a year doesn't help him either. I have him at No3 in the division after Anderson & Vitor. I wouldn't pick Weidman to beat Vitor so I defo ain't picking him to beat Da Spyda!

Working that bet into an Accumulator as follows:

Picks are Craig over Leben (leben just doesn't have it anymore, even his cardio has let him down in recent fights)
Parke over Tokudome (Japanese fighters tend to fight 1 weight class above where they should and I think Parke outmuscles him for a decision)
Munoz over Boetsch (Never been sold on Boetsch as Tier 1 fighter. I see him as a gatekeeper going forward and I think Munoz's athleticism will eventually get the better of him for a late stoppage/decision)
Kennedy over Gracie (Kennedy is a very powerful guy and a decent grappler in his own right, I think he keeps this one standing and beats Gracie down)
Anderson over Weidman (as above)

1 euro bet pays out 9.68.

Haven't gone near the Swanson/Siver fight as I see that as a pickem, slight advantage to Swansom but not betting against Siver.
Nervous for Frankie Edgar in this fight, it may not be this bout but I see him fighting an up and comer in the near term who destroys him, ala grant over maynard. He has taken a lot of damage in the past 3 years with not many wins to show for it. 1/5 doesn't represent value on him in my opinion.

Interested to hear thoughts on this card as there is some guys who are slight favourites that should be more heavily favoured in my opinion, Anderson & Kennedy especially.

broders3

One quick addendum,

Swanson vs. Siver for fight for FON looks like good value at 5/1.
Gonzaga is 8/1 for Sub of the night is a good bet especially if there aren't many subs on the night

Mellor

I like gonzago sub, but i think ill go for Barboza fight of the night

Ian Whelan

Anderson Silva - 12/1 to win by submission. Big price. It's not incredibly hard to see Weidman taking Silva down thus forcing Silva to look for submissions off his back. I know it's a long shot but I kind of have to bet on something so I'll go for this.

Easy Rod

broders3 wrote: »

Really like this card from a betting perspective. I think Anderson at 2/5 is tremendous value, I really don't see him losing this fight. Weidman is great up and coming fighter but a win over a hurt munoz doesn't make him an Anderson beater in my opinion. The fact Weidman hasn't been in the cage for a year doesn't help him either. I have him at No3 in the division after Anderson & Vitor. I wouldn't pick Weidman to beat Vitor so I defo ain't picking him to beat Da Spyda!

Working that bet into an Accumulator as follows:

Picks are Craig over Leben (leben just doesn't have it anymore, even his cardio has let him down in recent fights)
Parke over Tokudome (Japanese fighters tend to fight 1 weight class above where they should and I think Parke outmuscles him for a decision)
Munoz over Boetsch (Never been sold on Boetsch as Tier 1 fighter. I see him as a gatekeeper going forward and I think Munoz's athleticism will eventually get the better of him for a late stoppage/decision)
Kennedy over Gracie (Kennedy is a very powerful guy and a decent grappler in his own right, I think he keeps this one standing and beats Gracie down)
Anderson over Weidman (as above)

1 euro bet pays out 9.68.

Haven't gone near the Swanson/Siver fight as I see that as a pickem, slight advantage to Swansom but not betting against Siver.
Nervous for Frankie Edgar in this fight, it may not be this bout but I see him fighting an up and comer in the near term who destroys him, ala grant over maynard. He has taken a lot of damage in the past 3 years with not many wins to show for it. 1/5 doesn't represent value on him in my opinion.

Interested to hear thoughts on this card as there is some guys who are slight favourites that should be more heavily favoured in my opinion, Anderson & Kennedy especially.

I agree with all of these points, although I do see Cub finishing Siver, regardless might hop on that accumulator with you!

Mellor

Ian Whelan wrote: »

Anderson Silva - 12/1 to win by submission. Big price. It's not incredibly hard to see Weidman taking Silva down thus forcing Silva to look for submissions off his back. I know it's a long shot but I kind of have to bet on something so I'll go for this.

He's 12/1 for a reason. Weidman competes at top level in submission grappling and BJJ.

Jizzear

Am i mad for thinking of betting olivera on points at 10/1? frankie probably wont want to take him down so Id imagine itl be mostly stand-up. Hes not gona finish frankie by ko but the man does have some fairly slick muay thai, frankie generally starts slowly aswell and theres always the lol judging factor. If he doesnt get ko'd i think he has a chance to take 2 rounds here

Ray Mond

Jizzear wrote: »

Am i mad for thinking of betting olivera on points at 10/1? frankie probably wont want to take him down so Id imagine itl be mostly stand-up. Hes not gona finish frankie by ko but the man does have some fairly slick muay thai, frankie generally starts slowly aswell and theres always the lol judging factor. If he doesnt get ko'd i think he has a chance to take 2 rounds here

Never!!! Frankie will dominate him in the rounds if he doesn't stop him.

Jizzear

Ray Mond wrote: »

Never!!! Frankie will dominate him in the rounds if he doesn't stop him.

i dno lad, have a look now at weighins hes a mile bigger/rangier than him, if i remember right has noticably slick muay thai and frankie generally starts slow, 10/1 like think im gona throw abit on