UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Mr. Manager

El Guapo! wrote: »

I agree 100%
I often place bets on long shots if the price is right. It's the fight game and everyone has a punchers chance. If the price is attractive enough then sometimes it's worthwhile throwing on a very small bet. It pays off from time to time.
But like you say, any sizeable bet against Rousey is pretty crazy.

Yeah and as soon as I hit "place bet" I fully accepted that that's money I'll never see again.

I'll always shout for Ronda too. She's a class act and a pleasure to watch (no sexual intentions with that one).

Mellor

El Guapo! wrote: »

I agree 100%
I often place bets on long shots if the price is right. It's the fight game and everyone has a punchers chance. If the price is attractive enough then sometimes it's worthwhile throwing on a very small bet. It pays off from time to time.
But like you say, any sizeable bet against Rousey is pretty crazy.

The size of the bet changes nothing. It's either a good price or a bad price. If it's throwing away $100, then it's equally throwing away $10.

El Guapo!

Mellor wrote: »

The size of the bet changes nothing. It's either a good price or a bad price. If it's throwing away $100, then it's equally throwing away $10.

The point we were making is that it's easier to stomach losing €10 rather than €100.

Mr. Manager

Mellor wrote: »

The size of the bet changes nothing. It's either a good price or a bad price. If it's throwing away $100, then it's equally throwing away $10.

Not really. Throwing away €1 isn't the same as throwing away €10,000. Monetary wise it's not. That's the point that I was getting at.

but1er

Anyone fancy anything on Saturday??

smilerf

but1er wrote: »

Anyone fancy anything on Saturday??

Rondas bum :-)

Mellor

El Guapo! wrote: »

The point we were making is that it's easier to stomach losing €10 rather than €100.

Yeah I got that. Easier to stomach doesn't make it any better of a bet. You said yourself it was throwing money away.

You see it all the time, people post some nonsense accumulator, because its "worth a $5". Same people betting on the lotto etc. The bookies probably make more from bets like that than $100 shots.

Cereal Rapper wrote: »

Not really. Throwing away €1 isn't the same as throwing away €10,000. Monetary wise it's not. That's the point that I was getting at.

Monetary wise it's obviously not the same cash value. That means nothing in regards to value though.


If you are planning on having a Holm bet for the laugh.
Then consider Holm by KO at 11/1, or even rd1 at 27/1
As realistically that's the only way its happening.

Mellor

Jose Aldo at 6/4 is insane

martyos121

Mellor wrote: »

You see it all the time, people post some nonsense accumulator, because its "worth a $5". Same people betting on the lotto etc. The bookies probably make more from bets like that than $100 shot

You have to realise that whatever the cost of them, if you can afford to lose, it's only really a bit of craic. I always do them in MMA and football because it gets me interested in fights and matches I wouldn't have looked at. Don't let it bother you; live and let lose! :pac:

El Guapo!

Mellor wrote: »

Yeah I got that. Easier to stomach doesn't make it any better of a bet. You said yourself it was throwing money away.

You see it all the time, people post some nonsense accumulator, because its "worth a $5". Same people betting on the lotto etc. The bookies probably make more from bets like that than $100 shots.

Of course it doesn't make it a better bet. But like I said, the point we were getting at is that while the bet is unlikely to come in, the long odds would make it attractive to place a small bet on.

Look at it this way.... if there was a two horse race, one horse is the clear favourite while the other is a massive underdog at 50/1, I'd obviously back the favourite but it's also worth sticking a very small bet on the other horse. Stranger things have happened. Doesn't mean it's a good bet though.

Also the amount wagered does matter. A small bet of a couple of quid on a long shot is fun to do and it will come in on the rare occasion. But a big amount wagered on the same bet suggests some confidence in the bet.
Not sure what the lotto has to do with anything tbh.

Paully D

Mellor wrote: »

Jose Aldo at 6/4 is insane

I think he'll get even longer. I could actually see him hitting 2/1 before the sharps load on Aldo on fight night.

Mellor

martyos121 wrote: »

You have to realise that whatever the cost of them, if you can afford to lose, it's only really a bit of craic. I always do them in MMA and football because it gets me interested in fights and matches I wouldn't have looked at. Don't let it bother you; live and let lose! :pac:

I get the idea it's a bit of craic no issue with that, but that doesn't make what I said not true. I'm talking about people convincing themselves that a long shot equals value.
And it genuinely doesn't bother me one bit, I'm happy to punt away at roulette/virtual dogs/South African chariot racing for the craic.

El Guapo! wrote: »

Look at it this way.... if there was a two horse race, one horse is the clear favourite while the other is a massive underdog at 50/1, I'd obviously back the favourite but it's also worth sticking a very small bet on the other horse. Stranger things have happened. Doesn't mean it's a good bet though.

Betting on both horses in a two horse race is just silly

Mellor

Paully D wrote: »

I think he'll get even longer. I could actually see him hitting 2/1 before the sharps load on Aldo on fight night.

Man, if I see 2/1 come up, I'll be hard pressed not to drop a sizeable bet on it

Mr. Manager

Mellor wrote: »

I get the idea it's a bit of craic no issue with that, but that doesn't make what I said not true. I'm talking about people convincing themselves that a long shot equals value.
And it genuinely doesn't bother me one bit, I'm happy to punt away at roulette/virtual dogs/South African chariot racing for the craic.

I could be wrong but I'm pretty certain no one said it was value...

tinpib

Okey dokey less than 90 minutes to KO in Japan. What's the consensus for tonight?

Edit: I'm just looking to have an extra bit of interest before the McGregor fight. Also maybe this has been answered before, I haven't read the whole thread, but what time is Conor fighting at?

themandan6611

tinpib wrote: »

Okey dokey less than 90 minutes to KO in Japan. What's the consensus for tonight?

Edit: I'm just looking to have an extra bit of interest before the McGregor fight. Also maybe this has been answered before, I haven't read the whole thread, but what time is Conor fighting at?

weak attempt, pitiful i reckon

tinpib

themandan6611 wrote: »

weak attempt, pitiful i reckon

I agree that it could use some work and maybe some fresh ideas.

Anyway, any thoughts on tonight? Would be curious to hear any input. Really looking forward to it. Absence makes the heart grow fonder.

Maybe we were spoiled with cards happening 5/6 weeks in a row and then a gap of a week and then another 5/6 weeks in a row.

Scant cards recently and for another month or so.

Myself and my mate were jabbering away last night reckoning that ufc should be on every week at more or less the same time. They probably are aiming for that? And in the nt so distant future that would happen.

I guess the danger is in spreading it too thin, but I would pretty much half-watch any ufc at that time on a Saturday.

Axwell

This is the gambling thread, you seem a bit lost.

tinpib

Axwell wrote: »

This is the gambling thread, you seem a bit lost.

Maybe I rambled on a bit but I was looking for some gambling advice for tonight's card.

Would like to hear anyone's thoughts?

I'm clicking away here putting an accumulator together, might aswell be roulette though.

tinpib

Right e o. Looks like I'm the only one here.

So we have the following:

Shinso Anzai @ 1.83
Kajan Johnson @ 1.33
Nick Hein @ 1.3
Li Jingling @ 1.36
Brandao in rd1 @2.87
Mousasi in rd 1 @ 4.33

Go team tinpib!!!

Axwell

tinpib wrote: »

Right e o. Looks like I'm the only one here.

You arent but you were talking a lot of non gambling waffle.

Stuck an MOV accumulator on for the craic

Teruto Ishihara on Points @ 9/2
Diego Brandao by KO @ 13/8
George Roop by Submission @ 17/2
Kyoji Horiguchi on Points @ 5/6
Gegard Mousasi on Points @ evens

€10 returns 5k.

weemcd

Did a 10er double of Hall and Barnett fight to not go the distance.

Couldn't resist the price Hall was at.

mailburner

only thing catching my eye so far at the weekend is the 6/4 about cariaso beating sergio pettis, a price I just took with hills

first I don't rate sergio pettis very highly and secondly cariaso has been in there with some of the best and all his losses have been against guys on a different level to sergio pettis
I can't see why he's such an underdog but maybe the price is based on reputation with pettis?
no prices available on mov yet which I'm guessing may well be pts

outside of that maybe a few obvious ones
namajunas, hendricks looks almost bombproof, maybe cormier does also but my desire to see gus win means I don't want to bet on that one and the price isn't that attractive on dc anyway
tempted to go with reshad but if it means I have even have to half watch that one then I think I'll avoid it altogether

Mellor

Interesting market from PP

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1219836

martyos121

Mellor wrote: »

Interesting market from PP

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1219836

Not saying he's definitely going to move up to LW and definitely not saying hes going to walk straight into a title shot when he does, but RDA at 50/1 is severely overpriced. Couldn't resist a flutter on that one.

but1er

All other 10/1 is that anyone after the first 4?

Mellor

but1er wrote: »

All other 10/1 is that anyone after the first 4?

Anyone not listed. So anyone other than the 10 fighters there.

So for 10/1 you get Barao, Guida, Swanson, stephens, Bermudez etc


Does he move up if he wins or loses?

martyos121

Mellor wrote: »

Anyone not listed. So anyone other than the 10 fighters there.

So for 10/1 you get Barao, Guida, Swanson, stephens, Bermudez etc


Does he move up if he wins or loses?

Unless they want to really test him and give him Frankie, a move up is the only option. Sure he could fight Holloway again, but I don't see it ending too differently to last time, bar the injury of course.

There's bias in my post though, because I am obsessed with seeing McGregor vs. Pettis, that would be incredible.

akelly02

is gustaffson not a massive price at 12/5?? he towers all over DC, he will find it hard to take him down i think

Hoki

I dont think DC is going to have much trouble taking down Gus tbh....