UrbanSea previously greetings' fresh start

loremolis

Urbansea,

I've followed your log over the last few weeks and I'm sorry to see you give up.

Can I make one suggestion.

You've been trying to resurrect your success with large bets on long odds.

The bread and butter of any winning streak is picking reasonably priced runners in a field where they have a chance.

Long shots do win but it's so random it's hard to get it right.

I know I'm telling you what you already know, I just wanted to remind you of it.

Why not give it a little while longer, say another €50, but this time forget about trying to re-coup your loss in one swoop. Pick smaller bets on shorter odds in races where the favourite winning will still double your money.

If you decide to leave it then thank you for the effort.

UrbanSea

Thanks for the post loremolis. It's frustrating because this is the time of year I'd make the most money and this year it's the total opposite.
I'm going to post up bets not using real money for a while to see if I can pick out a few winners. I'll start with a hypothetical bank of 500 quid.

Highly Efficient 8.30 Tipperary 8/1 Bet365
I can't see this price being around for too long when you have it 7/2 on a not very liquid BF market. Made a promising debut at Roscommon over ten furlongs at the start of last month where he was friendless in the market. Ran on very well at the end without threatening the leaders to finish 3 lengths off a very well backed Stack runner (12/1 into 100/30) Form yet to be franked but he finished well in front of Long Live the King that day,and he's not one to place much faith in. Should relish the step up to a mile and a half (by Dalakhani out of a Saddlers' Wells mare)
Stake:50
Bank:450

Nulty

Good post loremolis, we all need reminding of the fundamentals sometimes.

Back to basics Urban!

UrbanSea

Ah it's not the end of the world,I did the same last summer. Hopefully I can pick out a few winners and get back. That horse is now 7/2,and bet365 were 10/1 at one stage!!

ft9

Best of look finding your form again, be a pity to see you give up on the log altogether.

Guaranteed you will have big price winners now with pretend money

UrbanSea

Thanks ft9,hopefully.
Highly Efficient didn't go in the end. Raging,the horse he had beaten last time out won it.

Ramona Chase 16/1 3.05 Epsom
Goes well around here and was second in this race last year off a four pound lower mark. Has since won around here over course and distance and went up to a mark of 82 but is now back to 79 having ran well recently without really landing a blow. I'm willing to forgive his last run at headquarters never got into it and course form at Epsom is a big thing for me and comes in off bottom weight,looks a good each way bet.
Stale:15 each way
Bank:470

UrbanSea

St Nicholas Abbey 3.45 Epsom Evens
I think Midday might be up against it here even though she is class. St Nic is my Arc bet and I think he could be a class apart.
Stake:50
Bank:420

UrbanSea

Ramona Chase was unplaced but St Nic won in good style.
Bank:520

UrbanSea

Queen Andromache 3.30 Tramore 10/1
Stake:20 each way
Bank:480

UrbanSea

Treasure Beach 4.00 Epsom 33/1
Think he's quite over priced here. No questions about him staying,he beat Nathaniel in the Chester Vase and was third behind Frankel in the Royal Lodge over a mile at 2. Obviously a bit to find but could go in each way.

Stake:15 each way
Bank:450

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Queen Andromache 3.30 Tramore 10/1
Stake:20 each way
Bank:480

Wasn't placed.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Treasure Beach 4.00 Epsom 33/1
Think he's quite over priced here. No questions about him staying,he beat Nathaniel in the Chester Vase and was third behind Frankel in the Royal Lodge over a mile at 2. Obviously a bit to find but could go in each way.

Stake:15 each way
Bank:450

Aw now.That was agonizingly close. Beaten a head.
Bank:588.75

UrbanSea

Rubi Dia 8.00 Newcastle 14/1
One time Derby entry. That looks optimistic. Won on debut at Southwell where both of his two victories have come,most recently in December off a mark of 63. Ran a shocker first time out this season off a mark of 70 at York in a better race than this but has come down to a mark of 64 subsequently. Could be better for the run and this race lacks strength in depth. You'll hardly see a better bred horse in a race like this,by Hernando out of a Giant's Causeway mare. Looks overpriced,providing he can bounce back to form.

Stake:20 each way
Bank:548.75

UrbanSea

I'm going to back this one myself when I get down town.

End or Beginning 8.30 Newcastle 3/1
A good maiden for this track and this colt made a good debut when beaten just a nose over this distance at Newbury,when 2/1 favourite. Ran well that day and his inexperience cost him in the end as he ran incredibly green in the closing stages but did enough to suggest he'll be winning a race soon. Is a full brother to the useful Royal and Regal,who won over this distance at 3 but this lad will be seen to better effect over further(his brother was beaten a head in the Yorkshire Cup,and won a group 3 over a mile and a half and 2 miles). Numerous dangers but could go well.

Stake:40
Bank:508.75

UrbanSea

Two poor runs. End or Beginning needs further,was one paced in third once they kicked.

UrbanSea

Mr Harmoosh 7.15 Windsor 12/1
Was looking at this last night at 16/1 but a non runner has brought the price is. Lightly raced four year old,having had just 16 starts to date,having won four times,and finishing in the money 5 other times. Has a rating of 74 here,just three pounds above its last winning mark. Ended last season with a third finish off 75 over a mile at Newmarket. Having its second start for its new trainer,he had a run over hurdles at Hungtingdon in a novice at the end of April. Ran a close third that day and should be better having had that. Looks a decent each way bet.

Stake:20 each way
Bank:468.75

UrbanSea

Sebadee 3.50 Listowel 10/1
Looks a competitive handicap hurdle. Has been chasing in recent months off a mark up near 140,but just 113 here over hurdles. Had a satisfactory return to hurdling when a four lenghts third over two and a half miles at Cork two weeks ago. The step up in trip is bound to suit and ran a good race the start before last over hurdles at Galway in July in a big handicap hurdle,over an extended two and a half. Could go well.

Stake:15 each way
Bank:438.75

UrbanSea

Golden Call 5.50 Listowel 7/2
Created a good impression first run under rules when beating a subsequent bumper winner by a neck(favourite that day) with about 30 lengths back to the third horse. Is a bumper winner so step up in trip should suit. Favourite looks an exciting prospect having won easily on debut,but that form hasn't worked out well. Foolish to dismiss though.

Stake:38.75
Bank:400

UrbanSea

No luck today so far.

Going for one for tomorrow.

Al Muheer 3.35 Redcar 25/1

Form figures would depress you and is the rank outsider here but is increasingly too well handicapped. Has gotten down to a rating of 83 and has been as high as 105 in its career and this is now the lowest it has ever been at.Last won at Ascot in July 2009 off a mark of 99 when with Clive Britain and ran a few times with David Nicholls. It's day might not be tomorrow but has dropped 11 pounds since the start of this season and I'd be raging if I didn't back him and he ran well.

Stake:15 each way
Bank:370

UrbanSea

I fail. My winning of Euro Millions is going to make up for it though.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

I fail. My winning of Euro Millions is going to make up for it though.

Dandy Nicholls got rid of it....the horse is useless - at least in the short to medium term.

UrbanSea

There's a win in him soon when the weight goes further down.

Devotion 5.55 Leopardstown 6/1
Like many of the Ballydoyle runners she's impeccably bred,by Dylan Thomas out of a Saddlers Wells mare. Ran tenth on debut at the Curragh over six furlongs,beaten around five lengths. Sure to build on that and step up in trip likely to suit and many of O'Brien's have needed their run.

Stake:20 each way
Bank:330

UrbanSea

This losing craic is losing it's appeal at this stage. Time to get real.
Backed into 2/1 favourite and runs a stinker.

UrbanSea

The Reaper 5/1 6.20 Navan
Progressive 3 year old gelding. Took nine attempts to break his maiden tag at two but has been better since. Useful form in chasing home Rose Bonheur off a two pound lower mark last time out,she's since gone on to win a decent Listed race comfortably. Johnny Murtagh takes the reins and get's a 7 pound weight allowance as a 3 year old.

Stake:15 each way
Bank:300

UrbanSea

Darwin's Theory 4/1 8.25 Navan
Decently bred colt,by Montjeu out of a Green Desert mare. Has had three runs in maidens to date,first time out finishing 9lenghts off Recital over a mile before finishing a similar distance in a Leopardstown maiden last back end.Well backed first time out this season but disappointed. Better expected now entering handicaps with plenty of weight allowances off a mark of 74 (Irish Derby entry is a shade optimistic I would think)

Stake:20
Bank:280

UrbanSea

Cristalyev 9/1 6.55 Chepstow
Stake:10 each way
Bank:260

UrbanSea

Aw now. The Reaper is beaten a short head. Traded at 1.01 I think.
Bank:293.75

seanman is me

urbansea - delighted when i saw the English paper!! as on the Irish Independent!!!

UrbanSea

Haha I know well,had they predicted it seanman yeah?
What poet did you answer on?

Piece Dor 2.10 Roscommon 10/1
Interesting runner in what looks a poor maiden with plenty of horses being exposed as being nothing out of the ordinary. This filly has one start to date and that was with with Stoutey at the back end of last season over a mile at Yarmouth,going off at 6/1 and beaten a respectable 5 lengths on soft going. Hasn't been seen since,but the owners are keeping faith (Ballymocil stud) wearing the same colours as Conduit. Extra two furlongs here likely to help and could run well,but may come on for it.

Stake:10 euro
Bank:283.73

UrbanSea

Norville 3.25 Doncaster 25/1
In great heart of late,winning 5 times since February. Handicap mark has taken a beating as a result,being 33 pounds. However ran a good race off his revised mark in a hot handicap at Chester. This easier,but not under top weight. Worth an each way.

Stake:10 each way
Bank:263.73