Rekop's betting log

Rekop dog

So I decided to give one of these a bash to hopefully give you guys some winners. It'll probably be a 50/50 split between racing and football with the latter mainly focusing on Prem, Serie A and European football.

I'll start with the three antipost football bets I have at the moment, all Europa league winner bets. Always huge value in this market, English teams usually wildly over-rated and underpriced and Eastern European/Spanish dispite their dominance in this competion in recent years are available at sick prices imo.

2pts Zenit St Petursburg 9/1. My pick as most likely winners. Russian champions this year, play really fluid dynamic football, on a wintersbreak as they play a spring-autumn league so they'll be really fresh come the knockout stages of the comp. Excellent manager in Spalleti whose tactical knowhow is beyond that of most managers. Also very likely to strenthen with plenty of money to spend.

1ptVillareal18/1 vastly improved this season and the strongest Spanish challangers left in the competition. Tough tie against Napoli next round but should be strong enough over the two legs.

.5ptRubin Kazan 50/1
Dropping down from CL where they weren't disgraced including valiant performances against Barca, not as strong as team above but definite value at that price and again likely to strengthen.

Only the one racing selection today. Steet Power 9/2 in the last kempton. Bit of a track specialist here with 5/8 wins and 3/5 over C/D. Jockey is 3/3 on this horse at Kempton two. Street power is dropping down to a class
4 race today after struggling at a much higher level of late including a race in listed company. On a dangerous mark of 85 now, he has won at a higher mark in class 3 races twice, albeit over 6furlongs but can make seven too. Fav is ridiculously short on a much stiffer mark than his previous win.

Rekop dog

1.5 points street power

Bank 95

Rekop dog

Street power v slow and awkward out of the stals yesterday effectively ruining any chances of a win, I think he'll ping a race soon at that class though.

Very tough to be really confident in anything of late with conditions so poor and it's hard to know how the snow effected stables with regards to being able to ride out so your basically taking an added punt on horses fitness, and it quite a bad punt if it's just guess work.

One selection today, .75 pts e/w Deep Reflection 14.10 Uttox 22/1 vc bank 93.5

Very tempermental horse at the best of times, tried chasing unseccessfully last time out and quickly moved back over hurdles today. Form looks poor and inconsistant on the whole but when you look at his form on heavy/ Soft-heavy alone the 22/1 looks very big IMO, especially when a lot of the leading contenders have very little experience or success running on the mud. Deep reflection goes off a rating of 104 today in this class 4 hurdle. He's won off 110 on the heavy in a class 3, can make the distance and can handle going both left and righted handed. I think the standard of the race is generally weak for this level too.

I'd go in deeper if he was so murcurial, but hopefully he's in the right mind set today.

I was going to do my Saturday football selections today but there's not I'm interested in yet. Possibly laying Man City but I'll see how the market goes. Have my most profitable team of the year playing on Sunday so I'll be back with information of that then.

Rekop dog

First bet today Lay St Johnstone 2.7. Inverness holds one of Europes longests away league unbeaten records, stretching back to Nov 09. Unlike other teams that remain unbeaten for long spells Inverness are available at huge value each week. They've drawn away to Celtic and Rangers who were about 1.25 each to beat Inverness. The average price of teams to beat them over the unbeaten run is 1.98 so you'd imagine how profitable if you have layed every week. I've only been opposing teams that have faced them for the last 7 away games. Their pacey counter attacking style is the reason for this away run as they've far more room to exlpoit teams that come out and have a go at them at home. The run will end sometime but I'm going to keep enjoying the mounting profit until it does.

St johnstone have been poor at home too which makes it even more appealing, they've only won 2/7 a their place this season. I'd advise max bet here.
5pts lay 2.7 (liability 8.5pts) I'll deduct commision if it wins.

Just one other small bet. 1pt over 2.5 goals Seville Osasuna 5/6 SJ

Rekop dog

Trust a 13 month unbeaten run to end when I start this log. It would be nice to break my maiden soon.

3.00 Hereford 1pt e/w victor serenade 8/1 ladbrooks

2.05 Ayr 1pt e/w Morgan be 16/1 Hills.

Rekop dog

Rekop dog wrote: »

Trust a 13 month unbeaten run to end when I start this log. It would be nice to break my maiden soon.

3.00 Hereford 1pt e/w victor serenade 8/1 ladbrooks

2.05 Ayr 1pt e/w Morgan be 16/1 Hills.

Morgan was a NR. Victors Serenade got a battling 2nd to pick up my first couple of points.:cool:

Bank 86pts

Rekop dog

Have my biggest football bet over the Christmas period on Villarreal tonight.
15pts win 1/2

2-0 Villarreal, +7.5 pts. Made a mistake with earlier bank, should have been 85.

bank 92.5

Rekop dog

Lol meant to quote that message not edit it , looks like I added the Villarreal bet after the result now.

UrbanSea

Rekop dog wrote: »

Lol meant to quote that message not edit it , looks like I added the Villarreal bet after the result now.

Don't worry,I saw it earlier :cool:

Rekop dog

Going with Abbondanza 9/4 pp in the 12.40 at southwell today. Clearly the classiest horse in the race having run in group 3 company last season and is a multiple class 2 winner. Today is a five runner 6f claimer. He's been prolific in 6f claimers this season boasting 5/6 wins including one on the all weather and the only loss was getting necked out here on his last run in a race that he should have won IMO. These small field races often turn into tactical affair and again if you look back through Abbondanza's form he seems to thrive and is at his best is small fields. The only doubt is that he hasn't won in Southwell as of yet in his previous two runs, but young Billy Cray on board seems to be a bit of a track specialist with a very impressive 20% strike rate here. So as well as his 3 pound claim we have a jockey that you can confidently rely will get the best from him.

4 pts win 9/4

Rekop dog

Hmmm may give racing betting a miss for a few weeks, my stats have made tough reading over the past month.

Man U -1 10pts Evs pp

Pretty much nailed on win IMO. Stoke have had a poor away record against the big teams since promotion a couple of years ago, losing all away games against Chelsea, Arsenal and United, most of which were by large margins.

In Uniteds last 25 home games they've only lost 1 to Chelsea and 20 of these wins were by greater than the single goal margin. Bigger squads like theirs always statistically perform better than usual towards the end of the congested Christmas period as the sheer amount of games takes it's tole on the small squads.

Also 2pt Leeds Cardiff Draw 5/2