Very cold, Snow

Pangea

Just heard the news on Ocean fm, crikey main headline was snow for northwest tonight and up to 10cms in places, met eireann has no word of that lol.
In the end they said it would be for higher ground ,but still it was very alarmist way of putting it out there. Probably have auld biddys racing to the siopa now for the stock up

WalterMitty

Will the irish sea deliver again for Dublinia?

Rebelbrowser

WalterMitty wrote: »

Will the irish sea deliver again for Dublinia?

tis your foe, not friend, this time....

Vudgie

Pangea wrote: »

Just heard the news on Ocean fm, crikey main headline was snow for northwest tonight and up to 10cms in places, met eireann has no word of that lol.
In the end they said it would be for higher ground ,but still it was very alarmist way of putting it out there. Probably have auld biddys racing to the siopa now for the stock up

Do they not just use MET Eireann's forecasts for their information? perhaps they are using out of date info...

Pangea

Vudgie wrote: »

Do they not just use MET Eireann's forecasts for their information? perhaps they are using out of date info...

Yes , well they mentioned met eireann, and also on the site they mentioned IWO, so probably a mix of every weather forecast :pac:

irish1967

Have to have a wee listen at 6 to see what they say.

BEASTERLY

For 5 or so runs the GFS has shown a very cold easterly developing way out in FI at around the 20th. It is strange to see such consistency so far out. It must be responding to stratospheric warming.

Pangea

I have noticed that met eireann are starting to reserve their judgement in recent forecasts , It seems to be more of like MTs approach.

I quote from Met eireann "This system has the potential to be disruptive and it is being closely monitored. "
Its good that the are not being so definitive in their forecasts like they have been so many times in the past and often been wrong,with any weather there is a lot of probablity or hit and miss. What im saying maybe they are taking a leave out of MTs book.

John.Icy

BEASTERLY wrote: »

For 5 or so runs the GFS has shown a very cold easterly developing way out in FI at around the 20th. It is strange to see such consistency so far out. It must be responding to stratospheric warming.

Noticed this also, Hopefully the AO updates can keep in the negative, and this easterly may come to fruitation.

Winter ain't over yet.

nacho libre

BEASTERLY wrote: »

For 5 or so runs the GFS has shown a very cold easterly developing way out in FI at around the 20th. It is strange to see such consistency so far out. It must be responding to stratospheric warming.

So you maybe able to start bragging again about your snow depth in 14 days times:P

it will be hats off to a couple of lads over on netweather if it does come off as they were ridiculed by others for suggesting easterlies after mid month because there was no model support a few days ago for it. as we saw with the very first cold spell back in late November the ukmo beforehand was out on its own pretty much going for cold along wth our own M.T.

John.Icy

nacho libre wrote: »

So you maybe able to start bragging again about your snow depth in 14 days times:P

it will be hats off to a couple of lads over on netweather if it does come off as they were ridiculed by others for suggesting easterlies after mid month because there was no model support a few days ago for it. as we saw with the very first cold spell back in late November the ukmo beforehand was out on its own pretty much going for cold along wth our own M.T.

GFS picked up on the cold spells in the far FI, along with the Met office.

It is good signs, since the end of the last cold spell, easterlies from mi-month have been discussed.

Pangea

irish1967 wrote: »

Have to have a wee listen at 6 to see what they say.

Wow a radical overhaul , it didnt even make the news this time, It was the main headline an hour ago.

irish1967

Pangea wrote: »

Wow a radical overhaul , it didnt even make the news this time, It was the main headline an hour ago.

I think the 5 news is actual their own and the 6 news is syndicated national news. They are always totally different.

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

So you maybe able to start bragging again about your snow depth in 14 days times:P

Well another Eastrly may bring something like the 18 INCHES we got in early December.:D LOL

Seriously though, im certainly not getting exited yet but its definitely one to raise the eyebrows and to take note of.:cool:

Because the................... 18 inches.............................. we got in early december was great,

glimmerman123

BEASTERLY wrote: »

For 5 or so runs the GFS has shown a very cold easterly developing way out in FI at around the 20th. It is strange to see such consistency so far out. It must be responding to stratospheric warming.

M.T was on News Talk this morning and he was saying that it should turn mild around the middle of next week with temperatures reaching around 12c with the mild spell lasting for 5 or 6 days and then the cold makes a return. He also said according to his models February is shaping up to be a very cold month. How cold we will just have to wait and see.

fizzycyst

Deleted User wrote: »

Lol but here are the lunchtime temps as of this posting time
The northwest up to well inland had rain yesterday and today temps are between 4 and 10c! with not a hope of snow.

That would be a far cry from 0 to 3c

My view is theres not enough polar in the maratime at this stage.

I could find plenty of examples of my own posts that have ended up being wrong,but then I think it's always wise not to discount the atlantic oceans warming capabilities unless it's getting a decent shot of artic air and it isn't yet.

My point is,if we can't get detail today right ,what confidence have we in tomorrow and the next day at the moment?

Thats how difficult the forecasters life is and dissing them is simply shooting fish in a barrell-not fair.
Also models in my opinion are flakey lately on the finer details.

I was joking of course but, yes, I totally agree BB, no one can get it right all the time, especially when we're talking about the finer details of the weather on this lovely island of ours.
I think all the forecasters here on boards do a great job btw, and I enjoy reading the analysis day to day, so cheers

BLIZZARD7

Don't think much of this Friday event although surprise snow would be nice!
Cool and dry for the weekend with a few wintry showers but for most, some sunshine. Frost will also occur.

From Monday onwards the Atlantic will gain control over the country, first time since early november! The temps will be quite mild and there will be heavy rain at times as well especially in the south west, now this is also not 100% certain either as to when exactly the mild air will move in.
Now how long this pattern lasts is up for debate, a new trend is appearing in FI on the last few GFS runs, and that is for pressure to rise over Greenland at about +300 hrs. This is starting to look more likely than a scandi high, but still is a long way out and subject to alot of change...

The p.vortex does not look like setting up shop anywhere in particular and will probably remain split, Helping to get us out of this mild pattern quicker.

SLP 06z GFS for reyjavic -



Shows a steep pressure rise, indicating a GH.

SLP 06z GFS for Oslo -



This also shows a pressure rise before a drop off at the end, the mean still hits 1020hpa.

GEFS mean for +324 hrs -



Shows a strong GH.

AO still forecast to go into deep negative territory-




Anyone have a link to SLP ensembles for Nuuk?

Now I am looking hard for a cold spell, take these charts with a pinch of salt as they are in deep FI.


In the longer term, I think February will either be very mild or extremely cold...





Dan

thetonynator

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

From Monday onwards the Atlantic will gain control over the country, first time since early november!

Great post dan, but wasnt the atlantic in control from stephens day for a few days???

BLIZZARD7

thetonynator wrote: »

Great post dan, but wasnt the atlantic in control from stephens day for a few days???

Thanks, yes maybe I worded that badly, I meant as in proper mild zonality, the atlantic was only in for about 48 hours after st.Stephens day.





Dan