Hildegarde on the ticket

liabhroidi

Hildegarde Naughton has been added to the FG Galway West ticket along with Sean Kyne. Tom McHugh (of Tuam Credit Union fame) is added to the Galway East ticket.

PomBear

So 4 candidates and no McCormack, I have a huge dislike for FG so here's hoping they've overshot themselves with candidates, same goes for FF with 3.

I think that leaves just Greens and Sinn Féin to announce their candidates, could be wrong on that.

Arnold Layne

PomBear wrote: »

So 4 candidates and no McCormack, I have a huge dislike for FG so here's hoping they've overshot themselves with candidates, same goes for FF with 3.

I think that leaves just Greens and Sinn Féin to announce their candidates, could be wrong on that.

No doubt the NOB will be on the Green ticket

And Noel Grealish? No McCormack will help him pick up votes out that side.

Lockstep

PomBear wrote: »

So 4 candidates and no McCormack, I have a huge dislike for FG so here's hoping they've overshot themselves with candidates, same goes for FF with 3.

I think that leaves just Greens and Sinn Féin to announce their candidates, could be wrong on that.

Ó Brollchain will almost certainly be the Green candidate.


FG are really over-extending themselves here.

tred

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Ó Brollchain will almost certainly be the Green candidate.


FG are really over-extending themselves here.

There under pressure to get 2 seats. It will be seen as a failure if they dont.

Lockstep

tred wrote: »

There under pressure to get 2 seats. It will be seen as a failure if they dont.

They'd be better off running 3 candidates then. Running 4 splits the vote too much, especially as all 4 aren't exactly high profile.

Sponge Bob

kickoutthejams wrote: »

They'd be better off running 3 candidates then. Running 4 splits the vote too much, especially as all 4 aren't exactly high profile.

Each is high profile enough. Only 2 of the 4 of them need to be ahead of Fahey and Crowe after O Cuiv is either elected or gets near the quota, then they gotta stay ahead of Crowe and Fahey all the way.

The problem will be enforcing discipline and canvassing areas, I reckon only Kyne will do as he is told and it will be mayhem from Barna to Oranmore as the other three assidously chase the same voting pool.

Lockstep

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Each is high profile enough. Only 2 of the 4 of them need to be ahead of Fahey and Crowe after O Cuiv is either elected or gets near the quota, then they gotta stay ahead of Crowe and Fahey all the way.

Ah now. Apart from Healy-Eames, none of them is high profile. Certainly not enough to justify running 4 candidates. McCormack was their best chance of maintaining a famous face but they decided not to go for it.

Fidelma is high profile enough but not for the right reasons. Look at the Healy Eames thread to see the reaction to her. She's also based out in Oranmore so will be competing with the far more established Grealish for votes out there. She'll have a serious fight on her hands, plus she didn't get in last time around.

Naughton appeared pretty much out of nowhere in 2009, was a dark horse candidate and did extremely well. Saying she's high profile is a hefty stretch. Plus she'll be competing with Nolan, Connolly and Walsh (at least) for the city vote. I rarely see her doing anything or appearing in the local news so can't see her as doing too well.

Walsh seems a decent enough but like Naughton, he'll be going for the city vote, splitting the FG city vote even further.

Kyne is a meh. I live in Connemara myself and it's hardcore Ó Cuív territory out there. Fine Gael got around 4000 votes out there in the locals so it could be a possibility. Now that Higgins isn't running some of the left wing Connemara vote out there (the type who vote for Ó Cuaig) will probably transfer to her. He also did very poorly in 2007.

As it stands, running 4 candidates splits the vote an awful lot, especially given that none are high profile (3 councillors and a senator)

Furthermore, it's a real stretch to say that 'only' 2 out of the 4 need to keep ahead. Ó Cuív, Grealish and one FG seat are more or less guaranteed. Nolan will probably take the next seat with Connolly, Fahy and FG fighting it out for the final seat. Running 4 candidates diminishes the ratio of No.1s they could get with 3. FG would've been much better off running 3, keeping a high proportion of No.1s and being within reach of the 2 candidates but 4 makes their job much harder.

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The problem will be enforcing discipline and canvassing areas, I reckon only Kyne will do as he is told and it will be mayhem from Barna to Oranmore as the other three assidously chase the same voting pool.

Agreed, they'll have a tough time on their hands.

Sponge Bob

I am not as certain as you about Grealish staying ahead of the pack I foresee, but otherwise we do generally agree.

I reckon that you need around 5000 votes after the first 3 or 4 counts to survive the eliminations. A lot of candidates will be eliminated around the 4000 mark ...the last of that particular lot to survive will be elected.

Grealish is in a smallish 'east' side voter pool essentially containing all of Crowe, Nolan, Fahey, Walsh, Naughton, Healy Eames and himself where O Cuiv and Kyne are the only ones competing for a similar sized pool out west of the city in Connemara.

If you crudely dice the numbers there ain't a full quota east of the City, there is a 1+ quota IN the east of the City, 2 quotas in the West of the City and one West of the City.

Nobody in Connemara will vote for Grealish because he only represents the east side of the constituency. Nor will he have a sweeper out west like he did the last time with Tommy Welby and Donal Lyons along with Bobbys old personal vote which was strong in Connemara.

I wonder whether the Bobby will stir himself?

Lockstep

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I am not as certain as you about Grealish staying ahead of the pack I foresee, but otherwise we do generally agree.

I reckon that you need around 5000 votes after the first 3 or 4 counts to survive the eliminations. A lot of candidates will be eliminated around the 4000 mark ...the last of that particular lot to survive will be elected.

Grealish is in a smallish 'east' side voter pool essentially containing all of Crowe, Nolan, Fahey, Walsh, Naughton, Healy Eames and himself where O Cuiv and Kyne are the only ones competing for a similar sized pool out west of the city in Connemara.

If you crudely dice the numbers there ain't a full quota east of the City, there is a 1+ quota IN the east of the City, 2 quotas in the West of the City and one West of the City.

Nobody in Connemara will vote for Grealish because he only represents the east side of the constituency. Nor will he have a sweeper out west like he did the last time with Tommy Welby and Donal Lyons along with Bobbys old personal vote which was strong in Connemara.

I wonder whether the Bobby will stir himself?

Grealish is a fairly permanent fixture, he gets a good chunk of his vote east of the city. Even with the PDs being defunct he has enough of a personal voting base to carry him through. Even when Lyons was eliminated, Grealish only got 26% of his votes (around 300 votes), whereas Welby gave Grealish less than 25% of his votes (574). Even if these two hadn't ran or hadn't transferred to him at all, Grealish would have still got in (you're completely right about him having low support in the West though,


Bobby returning would be an interesting result, could completely change how the vote goes.

Sponge Bob

kickoutthejams wrote: »

Bobby returning would be an interesting result, could completely change how the vote goes.

Bobby will not actually run...I mean whether Bobby explicitly supports anyone.

The PDs in Galway were very much the party of the property developing and multiple property owning classes....and Bobby attracted personal support from certain old City FG types when he became a PD.

Grealish never really represented these people....arguably Walsh with his background would be much much closer to them.

Only a Bobby on the platform beside one ( or clearly not bside one ) could tell which way things will go ....but there are rather a lot of these people in Galway and particularly in and near the city.

Certainly half a quota worth, whether or not they pay any attention to Bobby any more being the great variable.