Galway West General Election

Adrian009

ArtSmart wrote: »

from a policy viewpoint connolly should do well from SF transfers this time round. certainly more so than Kyne and FHE

You've got that right. Now that SF have finally began to make a mark down here, it will be very interesting to see how they preform during the next ten years. Because its all up for grabs. They could rise and rise like FF after 1927, or go the way of other minor partys such as the PD's.

Sponge Bob

Adrian009 wrote: »

Maybe, though SF are still transfer-repellent.

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

Adrian009

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

I have a lot of time for Connolly but seems to be against everything. How do you rate Connolly?

Unrealistic

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

I can see Nolan getting enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to get him over the quota but not enough to make distribution of his surplus significant. As I posted in the other thread, I think Kyne (Connemara connection) and Connolly (lefties) will get enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to put them both ahead of Healy Eames to make her the next to be eliminated. Then it's down to whether or not Healy Eames' transfers follow the party line or the women's vote as to who takes the last seat. My guess is Kyne will shade it over Connolly.

Sponge Bob

Adrian009 wrote: »

I have a lot of time for Connolly but seems to be against everything. How do you rate Connolly?

She whinges and cribs so much I call her the Galway Bawl , not a single constructive utterance or suggestion to be heard.

johngalway

Sponge Bob wrote: »

She whinges and cribs so much I call her the Galway Bawl , not a single constructive utterance or suggestion to be heard.

Ara get off the fence Bob, tell us what ya really think! :pac:

Keylem

Unrealistic wrote: »

I can see Nolan getting enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to get him over the quota but not enough to make distribution of his surplus significant. As I posted in the other thread, I think Kyne (Connemara connection) and Connolly (lefties) will get enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to put them both ahead of Healy Eames to make her the next to be eliminated. Then it's down to whether or not Healy Eames' transfers follow the party line or the women's vote as to how takes the last seat. My guess is Kyne will shade it over Connolly.

You may be right, I much prefer Kyne to Healy Eames!

ArtSmart

Tenth Count Galway West

Connolly (Ind) (+1658) 8231
Grealish (NP) (+370 ) 8678
Healy Eames (FG) (+189) 7003
ALSH, Brian FG 7491
7491 KYNE, Seán FG 7059
7059 HEALY EAMES, Fidelma FG 7003

All down to FHE's transfers....

oh, my nails.

Keylem

ArtSmart wrote: »

Tenth Count Galway West

Connolly (Ind) (+1658) 8231
Grealish (NP) (+370 ) 8678
Healy Eames (FG) (+189) 7003
ALSH, Brian FG 7491
7491 KYNE, Seán FG 7059
7059 HEALY EAMES, Fidelma FG 7003

All down to FHE's transfers....

oh, my nails.

Recount granted to FG Fidelma Healy Eames. count adjourned til 6:30pm

CrowdedHouse

Full recount mentioned on twitter

johngalway

Will GW be the last count to finish in the country I wonder.

Keylem

So far, 147 seats have been filled in the 31st Dáil - 65 Fine Gael, 35 Labour, 17 Fianna Fáil, 13 Sinn Féin and 17 Others.

Wicklow is likely to be the last constituency finished, and looks set to return three Fine Gael and one Labour, with either Sinn Féin or an Independent to take the last seat.

Lockstep

Just back from the count.

Ó Cuív and Nolan already in, Walsh and Grealish dead certs to take the next 2 seats.
FHE called a recount, very interesting stuff. Kyne was viewed as a sweeper but has really thrown himself into the running and is likely to take the final seat.
Ó Clochartaigh's transfers put Connolly ahead of the 2 FG candidates.
However, FHE will probably transfer enough to Kyne to put him ahead of Connolly, likely he'll be taking the final Dáil seat.

This looks very interesting.

Unrealistic

Lockstep wrote: »

Walsh and Grealish dead certs to take the next 2 seats.

However, FHE will probably transfer enough to Kyne to put him ahead of Connolly, likely he'll be taking the final Dáil seat.

This looks very interesting.

With Kyne performing so much better than expected, and now being only 432 votes behind Walsh, is it not a possibility that FHE's 7,000 transfers could put Kyne ahead of Walsh?

Lockstep

Unrealistic wrote: »

With Kyne performing so much better than expected, and now being only 432 votes behind Walsh, is it not a possibility that FHE's 7,000 transfers could put Kyne ahead of Walsh?

A fair point. Yes, that's definetely a possibility.

johngalway

I've met Kyne after a public meeting and liked the guy and what he had to say. I must admit, I'm absolutely delighted he's in the running for a seat. I'd heard various things from various people about tactics, but it looks like he's thrown himself at the job and may yet get his reward!

Sponge Bob

Rumours that Fidelma has 3 legal eagles on the way to represent her interests while Pádraig McCormack will be in charge of representing Kynes interests tonight.

This could be a 24 hour recount, like Galway East seems to be

Iwannahurl

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Rumours that Fidelma has 3 legal eagles on the way to represent her interests while Pádraig McCormack will be in charge of representing Kynes interests tonight.

This could be a 24 hour recount, like Galway East seems to be

No need to whinge and crib about vote-counting details when you can hire a lawyer to do it for you?

Sponge Bob

FG are hiring the lawyers :cool: Herself is off home to change the obligatoire power suit to the natty blue number I expect her to besport herself with tonight.

moy83

Iwannahurl wrote: »

No need to whinge and crib about vote-counting details when you can hire a lawyer to do it for you?

Don't think all the lawyers in the world can change the vote now

Pacing Mule

The recount will continue tonight for as long as it takes to complete. The count is then likely to adjourn and resume in the morning.

What the heck does that mean ???

Keylem

Pageant Messiah wrote: »

What the heck does that mean ???

Kinda wondered that too!

Unrealistic

Pageant Messiah wrote: »

What the heck does that mean ???

I took it to mean that they will recount up to count 10 (where they were when FHE called for a recount) and then adjourn until the morning when they'll start with the 11th count.

Sponge Bob

Got word from the count, no major changes after the first stage of the recount so FHE is gone. All previous results are confirmed as is ( bar - 5 here and +1 there) up to Nolan being elected.

FHE eliminated and Walsh will then be elected with a surplus. Kyne and Connolly will be close at that time but as Walsh will have a larger surplus than Nolan had earlier the Walsh surplus will get Kyne over the line ....at least 1000 votes ahead of Connolly and elected without reaching the quota most likely.

Grealish will be elected without reaching the quota either, possibly behind Kyne at the end. It is all over in Galway West bar the technicalities.

SB out before the lock and TTFN

johngalway

That's just made my day Fantastic result for Kyne, from sweeper to keeper!

ArtSmart

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Got word from the count, no major changes after the first stage of the recount so FHE is gone. All previous results are confirmed as is ( bar - 5 here and +1 there) up to Nolan being elected.

FHE eliminated and Walsh will then be elected with a surplus. Kyne and Connolly will be close at that time but as Walsh will have a larger surplus than Nolan had earlier the Walsh surplus will get Kyne over the line ....at least 1000 votes ahead of Connolly and elected without reaching the quota most likely.

Grealish will be elected without reaching the quota either, possibly behind Kyne at the end. It is all over in Galway West bar the technicalities.

SB out before the lock and TTFN

still open race. Connolly almost 1200 ahead of Kynes as it stands. she'll also get transfers from FHE/ (Walsh). I wouldnt put the house on Kynes just yet.

Unrealistic

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Got word from the count, no major changes after the first stage of the recount so FHE is gone. All previous results are confirmed as is ( bar - 5 here and +1 there) up to Nolan being elected.

FHE eliminated and Walsh will then be elected with a surplus. Kyne and Connolly will be close at that time but as Walsh will have a larger surplus than Nolan had earlier the Walsh surplus will get Kyne over the line ....at least 1000 votes ahead of Connolly and elected without reaching the quota most likely.

Grealish will be elected without reaching the quota either, possibly behind Kyne at the end. It is all over in Galway West bar the technicalities.

SB out before the lock and TTFN

I heard there is real chance Walsh will be elected without reaching a quota so no surplus available for Kyne. Still not cut and dried I think.

Lockstep

If Kyne gets elected then fair play to him. He's put in a lot of work and clawed his way up from being a sweeper.

Ruire

Lockstep wrote: »

If Kyne gets elected then fair play to him. He's put in a lot of work and clawed his way up from being a sweeper.

Better him than FHE, anyway. Obstructionist bint.

ArtSmart

ArtSmart wrote: »

but also 200 tween connolly and kynes! but transfers prob will bring in kynes

(personally i think connolly will shade it by 40 votes

I'll be expecting many 'thanks' if this comes true.

johngalway

Padraic McCormack on GBFM now...

When FHE is eliminated.

CC to get around 400 from FHE.

Kyne needs 1600+ from FHE if that's the case.

FG tally people (going on a sample of 1000 votes I think) saying he will get it.

P McC reckons again the gap will end up as favouring Kyne by 100+ in the end to give him the 5th and final seat edging Connolly out.

Lockstep

Advertiser update says FHE has arrived with a team of lawyers.

gent9662

Lockstep wrote: »

Advertiser update says FHE has arrived with a team of lawyers.

A jasus! She's really desperate!

Pure Sound

If Healy Eames gets it over Kyne in the recount I'd imagine it would be better for Connolly as she would probably get enough transfers from Connemara. Could turn out to be a stupid move from Healy Eames as it could end up being a seat lost for FG, shows that she is only out for one person, herself. Personally I would prefer Kyne over Healy Eames if Connolly doesn't get in. He is a younger face in Politics and is proving doubters wrong that he was just an also ran

johngalway

Kyne was just on GBFM. Very calm, very rational, "The results are somewhere in those bundles". Good interview I thought, have given up typing them out because... because... no one has the same story :pac:

Twitter had it, result from the recount for 5.30pm. We'll see :rolleyes:

backspacer

Rumours are Fine Gael have enough as well, won't support Healy Eames anymore through this, that they cannot support a call for a further recount against one of their own candidates. Talk about not facing up to defeat, not doing whatever credibility she had any good.

Keylem

Recount ongoing, but understand that It is looking like F Healy Eames will be eliminated, leaving a small vote difference between S Kyne and C Connolly. C Connolly's team have voiced their concern about the number of her votes that were identified as being suspect last night. If it is found to be disproportionate, she may demand an explanation and a recount

SarahBM

what number recount are we on now? 3?

sgthighway

During the recount FG were counting the transfers from FHE to Kyne and Connolly and they put Kyne way ahead. Padraic McCormack is predicting he will get 100+ votes more than Connolly.

Ruire

SarahBM wrote: »

what number recount are we on now? 3?

5, I think. Two on Saturday, two on Sunday. Now this.

Lockstep

FHE's transfers could go all over the place;

Grealish is from the same voting area as herself. Could transfer well.
Walsh is from the East of the city, also a party colleague.
Connolly might get transfers due to the female factor (women are under-represented in the Dáil and some voters vote accordingly but I dunno how far this will go)
Kyne is a party colleague but from the other side of the constituency.

gallantman

Ruire wrote: »

5, I think. Two on Saturday, two on Sunday. Now this.

What ????

Maybe I'm wrong but this will be the result of the first recount started yesterday (requested by FHE) and only finishing now.

The only other re-count was carried out by M Higgins (not requested by a canidate) after a discrepency between 1st count and figures from polling stations.

Is this correct ? We are nowhere near 5 recounts!!

CrowdedHouse

Copied from twitter

@t_desales: Marion Chambers Higgins to make pronouncement on Fidelma Healy Eames in unnecessarily elaborate surname extravaganza #gyw #ge11 #****sake

johngalway

Lockstep wrote: »

Kyne is a party colleague but from the other side of the constituency.

He's from Moycullen, not Renvyle

I've faith in McCormacks assessment, they've been watching fairly closely where the transfers have been going.

Lockstep

johngalway wrote: »

He's from Moycullen, not Renvyle

I've faith in McCormacks assessment, they've been watching fairly closely where the transfers have been going.

Ah y'know what I mean. His area is English Conamara. Regional voting is still very big in Ireland.

johngalway

His area is still Connemara mind. That's a + for him. I know Connolly has her interests in Connemara, but no better than Dev Óg, we're their holiday home! Kyne would be a Connemara TD.

Either way, they should have a band in the corner playing El Degüello :pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR-KbvXvBd8

Unrealistic

Ruire wrote: »

5, I think. Two on Saturday, two on Sunday. Now this.

There has only been one recount, which started on Sunday evening, and the results of which have not yet been announced.

Unrealistic

gallantman wrote: »

The only other re-count was carried out by M Higgins (not requested by a canidate) after a discrepency between 1st count and figures from polling stations.

A technicality but I think that is a classified as a re-check rather than a re-count.

gallantman wrote: »

We are nowhere near 5 recounts!!

Correct. This is the first one.

Keylem

The 9 O'Clock news on RTE indicates that there won't be any result until tomorrow!

Pure Sound

Keylem wrote: »

The 9 O'Clock news on RTE indicates that there won't be any result until tomorrow!

Thats final result, it seems Healy Eames is out now judging by the news

Is there anyway that both Kyne and Connolly get in ahead of Grealish with transfers