Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

Anyway
Birds are chirping today.
Grand stretch in the evenings too!

mike65

True, nice to have. Every day the sun gets a little higher in the sky.

The GSF for the next 14 days is excellent for those who don't want snow - a persistant high in the "wrong" place then atlantic sw taking over.

Speak Now

mike65 wrote: »

True, nice to have. Every day the sun gets a little higher in the sky.

The GSF for the next 14 days is excellent for those who don't want snow - a persistant high in the "wrong" place then atlantic sw taking over.

It's excellent for those of us that dont want wind or rain

200motels

mike65 wrote: »

True, nice to have. Every day the sun gets a little higher in the sky.

The GSF for the next 14 days is excellent for those who don't want snow - a persistant high in the "wrong" place then atlantic sw taking over.

Down with that sort of thing.

Flan_Da_Man125

well the models are hinting a colder scenario at the moment with the high moving west allowing colder air in but its too early to say. we may know by the weekend. MT has been hinting this in his forecast but i also have to add the models are always all over the place lately especially over 90h

patneve2

The models are probably seeing this HP as being too East based and a trend to a slightly more west-based HP is likely. However, blocking will still be close to our shores and more critically there will be very little or non existing Northern blocking...just look at that mess of LPs to our North!! Frosty and dry but no snowy weather on the way...I still believe in an Easterly before Winter is over though!!

jimmynokia

whats going on is the snow on the way back lots of people saying it is ???

irishdub14

I'm loving the weather atm!! Nice sunny days, no wind, really dry, very nice!

JJJJNR

No more snow, back to the normal weather just cold and frosty.

Nothing to see here folks, nothing to see.

DarkJager

This weather at the moment would be just perfect to lead us in to Spring. Days are nice and bright (good stretch in the evening now as well), its not too cold and its generally just pleasant weather. I said it a few times but I really do hope the snow is gone now and won't come back. This weather kicks its inconvienient ass a hundred thousand times over.

patneve2

patneve2 wrote: »

The models are probably seeing this HP as being too East based and a trend to a slightly more west-based HP is likely. However, blocking will still be close to our shores and more critically there will be very little or non existing Northern blocking...just look at that mess of LPs to our North!! Frosty and dry but no snowy weather on the way...I still believe in an Easterly before Winter is over though!!

Well to be honest it's looking increasingly like any number of scenario's that developed from 2000 to 2008.
High pressure near our shores sending all the cold down to Athens.
An Easterly often appeared by about easter,which was weak enough and useless only delaying what people by then really wanted and thats warmth.

nacho libre

unfortunately the most plausible scenario is 7-10 of high pressure close by, then the atlantic eventually gets back in as the high sinks into the continent.
this wouldn't be the end of the world, if zonality proved to be brief, and the situation futher north then became more favourable blocking as another high started to build near us sometime in the first week of February.
of course it's just i've found more straws to clutch since yesterday

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

unfortunately the most plausible scenario is 7-10 of high pressure close by, then the atlantic eventually gets back in as the high sinks into the continent.
this wouldn't be the end of the world, if zonality proved to be brief, and the situation futher north then became more favourable blocking as another high started to build near us sometime in the first week of February.
of course it's just i've found more straws to clutch since yesterday

Would agree with this until you said that the Atlantic would likely return after the high sinks, I don't see the high sinking, heights should remain low in southern Europe and really that's why we won't see proper zonality, if at all...

I think another ridge will build in the mid Atlantic and our current one will meander about for a while before slowly moving east, at the same time I think the Russian high will move towards scandi and eventually link up with our current high. The question is, will this scandi-Russian high link-up be far enough north to advect cold air towards us?? I hope so.

This is just speculation on my part but might be worth watching, 500mb 8-10 day charts are also starting to suggest this -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

Stratosphere just had a notable cooling but it seems to be warming slightly again.(30hpa level)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

Forecast not good though, cooling to resume -

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

AO/NAO forecasts are not great either, NAO not bad actually -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

One straw to clutch is that these forecast are about as reliable as the models at the same range...

In summary- cool/cold and dry for the next 7-10 days and after this is very uncertain but my hunch is a colder setup will appear.





Dan :cool:

Flan_Da_Man125

Well im just hoping theres one more snow day left before winters out. hopefully a good easterly

El Horseboxo

Don't care about snow. Would love some very cold sunny clear days. Just feels healthy to be out in.

mike65

Pppppppppft! Straw clutching indeed. Sometimes I wonder if this forum should be moved from Science to Recreation.

Danno

LOL! Lads, I think some people on here might want to take a step back and look to realise that we are currently in a cold spell. Yesterdays mean temperature was -0.4c here. Last night's low was -6.0c. On January 7th 2009, we were amazed to be recording lows of -7c and -8c... now we barely bat an eyelid at these cold lows.

I think this thread should be renamed "The witch-hunt for Snow" DM's thread title is bang on. The Atlantic lows are gone, replaced with a blocking high (pattern change) and boy is it cold out there (very cold weather). Well done DM!

Speak Now

Light winds, clear skies, frost by night, sunny during the day

Doesn't get better than this for the time of year

GFS 06z not showing much changes out to T384 :P

Bring it on

mike65

Evelyn Cusack on the 7.57 forcast talked about a change on Tuesday from the west, dunno what charts she's looking at.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack on the 7.57 forcast talked about a change on Tuesday from the west, dunno what charts she's looking at.

Probably one of the +144 ecm charts of yesterday.
Pointless her saying it as while the weather will come in from the west,we don't know when.
It may come in from the East or northeast either as the position of the hp is unresolved.
We are all watching this very closely.
Balance of probability in my opinion though is the hp shifts a little sw allowing atlantic weather to topple in over the top of it from the northwest eventually.
That wouldn't be a pattern change at all as per the title of the thread,it would be a pattern continuation delay or a break from the atlantic ended.

Danno

Danno wrote: »

LOL! Lads, I think some people on here might want to take a step back and look to realise that we are currently in a cold spell. Yesterdays mean temperature was -0.4c here. Last night's low was -6.0c. On January 7th 2009, we were amazed to be recording lows of -7c and -8c... now we barely bat an eyelid at these cold lows.

I think this thread should be renamed "The witch-hunt for Snow" DM's thread title is bang on. The Atlantic lows are gone, replaced with a blocking high (pattern change) and boy is it cold out there (very cold weather). Well done DM!

In all fairness Dan,this is just ordinary winter weather.
Still air at this time of year in our climate is cold especially in frost pockets or inland areas like yours..
But the minute you get a breeze from any direction,the cold goes very quickly unless the breeze has a cold source.
Therefore in my book this is definitely not a cold spell.
It's more correctly defined I think as a settled spell which has frost because of the long nights.
It's not a pattern change unless you change the pattern and theres no indication that the southwesterly pattern is going to change as a result of a reorientation of the high [yet].
It might but I suspect this high as in my last post may only be a pattern break as opposed to a pattern change.
We'll see,it could[pattern change] still happen...but without somewhere for this high to go to NW [the polar vortex is in its way and a big no no for it to angle northwest to SE so the big money should be on it slipping wsw meaning weather from the atlantic gets reestablished.

Nature may decide to do something different again of course.

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Would agree with this until you said that the Atlantic would likely return after the high sinks, I don't see the high sinking, heights should remain low in southern Europe and really that's why we won't see proper zonality, if at all...

I think another ridge will build in the mid Atlantic and our current one will meander about for a while before slowly moving east, at the same time I think the Russian high will move towards scandi and eventually link up with our current high. The question is, will this scandi-Russian high link-up be far enough north to advect cold air towards us?? I hope so.

This is just speculation on my part but might be worth watching, 500mb 8-10 day charts are also starting to suggest this -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

Stratosphere just had a notable cooling but it seems to be warming slightly again.(30hpa level)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

Forecast not good though, cooling to resume -

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

AO/NAO forecasts are not great either, NAO not bad actually -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

One straw to clutch is that these forecast are about as reliable as the models at the same range...

In summary- cool/cold and dry for the next 7-10 days and after this is very uncertain but my hunch is a colder setup will appear.





Dan :cool:

I like your optimism Dan, but i have doubts that's the way it'll go. Rarely does the russian high have an impact on our weather.The form option looks to be the high sinking eventually and allowing the Atlantic back in.
I will bow down at your feet if you're right? Is that a bit excessive?:p

Not

Deleted User wrote: »

In all fairness Dan,this is just ordinary winter weather.
Still air at this time of year in our climate is cold especially in frost pockets or inland areas like yours..
But the minute you get a breeze from any direction,the cold goes very quickly unless the breeze has a cold source.
Therefore in my book this is definitely not a cold spell.
It's more correctly defined I think as a settled spell which has frost because of the long nights.
It's not a pattern change unless you change the pattern and theres no indication that the southwesterly pattern is going to change as a result of a reorientation of the high [yet].
It might but I suspect this high as in my last post may only be a pattern break as opposed to a pattern change.
We'll see,it could[pattern change] still happen...but without somewhere for this high to go to NW [the polar vortex is in its way and a big no no for it to angle northwest to SE so the big money should be on it slipping wsw meaning weather from the atlantic gets reestablished.

Nature may decide to do something different again of course.

From my memory of ordinary winter weather, ordinary winter weather would only produce coldness like we have at the moment in the colder spells of it's ordinaryness, therefore IMO by ordinary winter weather standards I think we are in an ordinary cold spell. However this might not verify when compared to ordinary Boardsie ordinaryness where it is ordinary for ordinaryness to be shunned.

Flan_Da_Man125

i like this calm clear and sunny weather but i want some snow along with it!
that high better get moving west to allow some action to take place here. dont mind this up until the weekend but after that i want snow

compsys

If only we got weather and big ridges of high pressure like this in summer or early autumn!

GSF

compsys wrote: »

If only we got weather and big ridges of high pressure like this in summer or early autumn!

it may still be here given that its not going anywhere soon

jimmynokia

the R T E weather say the polar air is coming down so does that mean snow is coming?

GSF

jimmynokia wrote: »

the R T E weather say the polar air is coming down so does that mean snow is coming?

that was the special history section of the forecast which dealt with December 2010's weather. I kid you not!

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Jaysus, gorgeous here on the coast this morning. Bitterly cold. Very heavy frost. -4°C degrees. Brrr.

Any change in what's expected in the coming weeks?

BostonB

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Don't care about snow. Would love some very cold sunny clear days. Just feels healthy to be out in.

Unless your sick already....;)

I think this morning was on of thee heaviest frosts I've ever seen.