Ego's Saucy Selections

AlterEgo92

Brief rundown.
Read the forum a lot, keep an interest in xPyRo and the likes, don't have a bad record myself.
Want to throw up a few selections every week for the football.
Im not going to proclaim to be fantastic or great or even good, but I reckon I might hopefully be able to make a few quid.
Not a huge gambler, but opened an account recently, so I'll use Paddy Power for most of my prices.
Love football, always have, always will.

So Lets make some money.

Starting Bank - 100 Points

x PyRo

Cheers for the mention!

Hopefully it's really profitable for you and you'll be so surprised how much it'll improve your gambling.

Best of luck with the thread and I look forward to seeing your selections.

AlterEgo92

West Brom vs Blackpool

All isn't right in the West Brom camp. Carson, the captain, is dropped and will be replaced by Boaz Myhill. Peter Odemwingie is a doubt, so I just can't see where the goals will come from. Even if he is fit, his confidence is low. They have had trouble scoring of late, and Brunt is a crosser like Beckham, so it is difficult to see the midfield chipping in. Likewise with Jerome Thomas, not the most prolific, although he does fancy coming inside, I don't rate him as a player. They have lost their last five and are on a serious slide down the table. I doubt Paul Scharners comments were appropriate either, so expect a nervy West Brom with bags of pressure on their shoulders

Blackpool meanwhile are in great form, fresh off a victory against Liverpool, with D.J Campbell in fantastic form. They have the 3rd best away record in the league and they have no fears about playing away from home. Their diagonal balls will cause problems for a West Brom side shipping goals, and all in all I find them a better team at the moment. They have luck on their side, something which is hugely important, and Holloway will have his players revved up to complete yet another PL double, their first coming with the home and away victories against Liverpool.

They are just too long for me here. On form they should walk it. I imagine it will be tight, but I see no reason why they can't nick the win.

Blackpool - 10/3 - 3 point win

Milwall vs Ipswich

New manager syndrome is something I follow quite a bit. And Ipswich could have it here. Milwall have lost twice to Ipswich this season, and I think the performance against Arsenal showed the grit and determination that a side needs near the bottom of the championship.

Expect a similar line-up, so if you liked what you saw mid-week, it will be much of the same personnel wise. Jewell will presumably tweak the tactics a bit, having admittedly been all over the world learning more about the game. But there is just too much quality in this Ipswich side for me, and they should not be in this position. As "King Kennys" return showed, a change of manager isn't always a quick fix, but when the basis of a good squad is there, it certainly can be.

Ipswich - 10/3 - 2 points win.

Lastly, I think that Shane Long is in good form, and should get a goal this weekend. Reading are great contenders for a play off place, which I believe they will get, and Long is the man who can score the goals to get them there. He is finally playing with the consistency that can make him a good PL striker, capable of playing in a side hoping for a position from 8th-14th.

Ill combine him with Edin Dzeko, a debutant, with huge skill. Wolves aren't the best away from home, and Dzeko has the ability to score at will if given the opportunity.

Long(7/4) and Dzeko(4/6) both to score anytime - 2 points

Last bet, no reasoning, Derek Riordan to score first against Celtic - 8/1 - 1 point.

Total staked - 8 points.
Remaining Bank - 92 points.

Bumsex

thats what i love to see..nice write up.
no doubt the log will make you disciplined and prove to be profitable when you put that amount of time into research and the write ups.
thats what makes a good log,
best of luck..

AlterEgo92

Most important thing is to get off to a good start IMO. Although this can be recovered as you (Bumsex) have shown. Just hope that especially with the Blackpool game that form is adhered to. The goalscorer bets are something I like to do to keep me entertained. I know they are rarely worth it in the long run, but I won't make them every week. Just nice for a bit of interest.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Yeah great write ups there.
I really should put the effort into doing them for my log..

turbobaby

Nice one, can't argue with any of that. My only reservation would be dzecko. Will he play 90 mins? Skinny odds.

Particularly like ur choice of Shane Long. I have him to be Championship top scorer this season.

Best of luck!

AlterEgo92

Bad opening day, but ahh well.

Max Bet here - Long Term ( Reasoning Tonight )

Aston Villa Top-10 finish - 9/4 with Stan James - 5 points win

turbobaby

Agreed. Good bet. They have been playing pretty well without getting results. I thought they were excellent against Utd and unlucky to draw 2-2. Lots of injuries in midfield and up front. The two new signings this week can only help, and if they can also get Charlie Adam, then I think top 6 is even possible!

Have them in a double to finish top 6 and Zenit to win the Europa League. Had given up on it, but have some glimmer of hope now!

Good luck with it.

fkiely

AlterEgo92 wrote: »

Bad opening day, but ahh well.

Max Bet here - Long Term ( Reasoning Tonight )

Aston Villa Top-10 finish - 9/4 with Stan James - 5 points win

It's a decent bet I think considering their signings (Bent, Makoum and probably Adam). They're one of the bets I have in a six month accie I'm drawing up myself.

eh i dunno

Cant see Villa finishing in the top 6 lads and even top 10 would be a struggle. When you consider they wont get near the top 5 that leaves one place up for grabs between possibly 10 teams and with Houllier in charge they wont get 6th. Saying that their fixtures dont look too bad. Trips to Man U, Everton and Arsenal and the home match against Man C are the only fixtures which look dodgy. Best of luck with it

AlterEgo92

Okay then, here goes. Reasoning to my earlier bet - Aston Villa to finish in the top 10.

Okay, I'll start by saying that I hope that Houllier isn't finished in the transfer market. I would love to see Charlie Adam there to help me make some serious cash. Wouldn't mind another defender too, to shore up a back line which has been leaking goals.

1. Aston Villa are on the back of 3 successive 6th place finishes. While most of the squad from 2007/8 have departed, many of the squad of 2008/9 remain, while nearly all of the squad from last season remain. So the team certainly have great potential for improvement.

2. The disharmony in the squad appears to be going. It is understandable that the players were questioning the situation, considering one generally has to buy to improve, and Aston Villa had sold their arguably (on form) best player and replaced him with a more tempermental, fragile player, who is less of a "grinder" and has a much smaller work rate.
But, with the signing of Darren Bent, the club have signalled their intent. The players can begin to believe that the chairman still wants to see them climb the table. Performances such as that against Chelsea will have warmed their spirits, and I believe that the confidence of these players will continue to recover and rise.

3. The youngsters gelling period is complete. Marc Albrighton, Barry Bannan, Ciaran Clark etc., had all been thrown into the first team without previous experience, without the kind of gradual exposure that one usually expects when a manager introduces youngsters. Added to this is the return of Fabian Delph, and the youth contingent have begun to seem more like Premier League footballers every week. Albrighton in particular has greatly impressed me, and I feel that the club could find their tactic very beneficial in the long run. One only has to look back to the 1995/6 season, when Man Utd blooded many young players at the same time in a similar manner. Before January 2nd, they had been defeated 4 times in the league, after it they only lost once more. While not wanting to compare Villa to a title winning side, I think that the manner in which the players were blooded was extremely similar and Aston Villa will certainly reap the benefits from now on.

4. People call Gerard Houllier a bad manager, they have been calling for his head. I know he doesn't have the best transfer record in the world, spending 15 million on the likes of Diouf and Diao, but, many managers have bought players based on international tournaments, and then found the player wasn't able to cut the mustard. He did make some good signings too, and he does have a UEFA Cup, an FA Cup, and 2 French League titles to his name. I think he has matured well in his behind the scenes role with France over the past 2/3 years, and the team will begin to improve under his guidance.

5. The actual quality of the players cannot be mistaken. Agbonlahor, while often inconsistent, can be incredible. Ashley Young is a fine player, quick, good dribbling ability, a neat crosser. Downing is beginning to become more composed, more intelligent. Petrov has a great passing range, is able to dictate the game. These players haven't suddenly have gotten that much worse. Makoun is fresh off a champions league semi final appearance last season, scoring the winner against Real Madrid. Darren Bent has scored goals everywhere he has went, despite perhaps Tottenham to a certain extent. Although one feels that he thrives when he is the main man in the strikeforce, like at Charlton, where he scored 31 goals in 2 seasons, where he wasn't getting anywhere near the level of support he can expect at Villa. He scored 24 league goals last season, and 8 this season. Arguably, the transfer of Gyan took away the "main man" element which Bent thrives on. In this situation, there can be no doubt. Villa have smashed their transfer record for Bent, by some disance too.

6. Villa have 5 difficult fixtures left. Two of these are likely not winnable (Arsenal and Man Utd away). But they will feel they could get something in the other 3 ( Man City at home, Liverpool at home, and Everton away). They won't play Chelsea, Sunderland or Tottenham again, and have most of their fixtures against bottom half opposition (including 2 against Wigan). 50 points seems to be the cut off point for 10th. In 09/10, Blackburn finished 10th on 50 points, although they would still have finished there with 48 points. In 08/09, Man City finished 10th with 50, although they still would have with 46. In 07/08, West Ham finished there with 49, although they still would have with 47.

They are currently only 6 points off 10th. I definetly think this bet is great value, and I hope to see a nice return when the 38th round of fixtures is completed in May:D

AlterEgo92

A quick few for tomorrow. In a mad rush at the moment, so no reasoning, I'll try to attach some opinion to them in the morning. If not, sorry!

Barnsley vs Swansea - Swansea EVENS - 3 points win

Cardiff vs Watford - Cardiff 21/20 (WillHill) - 3 points win

Sheffield United vs Norwich - Norwich 17/10 (WillHill) - 2 points win

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The above selections - 1 point treble.

Shane Long First Goalscorer - 9/2 (Bet365) - 2 points

Luke Varney First Goalscorer - 8/1 (Bet365) - 2 points

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The above goalscorers - 1 point double

Seamus Coleman First Goalscorer - 20/1 (Bet365) - 1 point

Marc Albrighton First Goalscorer - 14/1 (VC) - .5 point

So in total that is a whopping 15.5 points staked. Lets hope for some serious return!

AlterEgo92

A loss of 4.95 points yesterday. Which leaves the bank, along with my Long Term Bet, at 82.05 points, a clear loss. Lets fix that today. Again, no major write ups as I am away from home until Tuesday, but hopefully my small amount of research can pay dividends.

Blackburn vs West Brom - Blackburn at 13/10 ( Bet 365 ) - 3 points win.
- Blackburn to win by 2 goals at 11/2 ( PP) - 1 point win
- Roque Santa Cruz Anytime at 15/8 (PP) - 2 points win

QPR vs Coventry - QPR Half Time/Full Time at 6/4 (Coral) - 2 points win

Fiorentina vs Lecce - Fiorentina -1 at 7/5 (PP) - 3 points win

Last Crazy One -

Milos Krasic First Goalscorer Sampdoria vs Juventus at 10/1 (Bet365 , as low as 7/1 in places.) - 1 point win

turbobaby

Nice write up on Villa, and good result yesterday!

AlterEgo92

+ 1.40 for the day.

AC Milan vs Cesena - Ac Milan -2 at 9/5 (PP) - 3.4 points win

Bilbao vs Hercules - Llorente 1st Goalscorer at 7/2 (PP) - 2 points win.
Llorente to score 2 or more at 5/1 (Bet365) - 1 point win

AlterEgo92

Okay, blank slate for the summer. That log was essentially forgotten about by me, and finished at a loss for whatever mad bets I did include. Although, my main bet, did come true, somehow.

Im going to start again with 100 points.

First bet to follow.

AlterEgo92

Waterford vs Limerick

I don't rate Waterford, not one bit. They had a decent league campaign, and if things went differently, they could have been in the final, but I don't put a lot of emphasis on the league either. Davy is trying to blood youth, with 4 new debutants in the 15, but Waterford have had little recent underage success to back up such a policy. There are familiar faces too, and I'm sure Shane Walsh will manage a goal, but ultimately they are an average side.

Limerick meanwhile, are a bit of an unknown quantity. They won every match in the league, but nobody can be sure how good they are until they actually play a championship match. There are only two players in the starting 15 who started last year against Cork, and I'm sure Donal O Grady will have this team drilled very well for this Waterford test. Kevin Downes is a player I really like the look of, and he could be the key to this match. Limerick aren't being given a chance in some quarters, but I certainly like the look of them. I think they will win, but not by much.

Limerick to win by 1-3 points @ 5/1 PP - 2 points.
K. Downes first goalscorer @ 13/2 PP - 1 point.