Dublin West General Election 2011 [Mod note post #218]

chucknorris

Sharrow wrote: »

Anyone been looking for the mintures of the co Coucil to see what they candidates have been doing and how they have been voting?

I agree that if a person accepts a nomination to a party ticket and is using the party machine to get elected then they are agreeing to the parties policies and will be voting what way the party whip tells them so they can't try and decry distance.

I wasn't impressed with David McGuinness performance at the hustings at all, it was my first time to see him and had not heard of him from the local elections until now and he certainly won't be getting a preference from me.

5 days to the election and we still have not had any canvasser from any party to the door.

I thought that was obvious from reading your posts in the last few weeks.
I

Gaspode

For the last time, please remain civil to each other, and refrain from childish name calling.
If you're old enough to vote you should be able to string a sentenct together and make a point without profanities or insults.

dirtynosebeps

i see lenihan is creeping up fast on nutly according to the boards vote. it should make an interesting fight for 4th place if this is anything to go by.
http://www.boards.ie/vote/results.php?type=local&c_id=21

chucknorris

dirtynosebeps wrote: »

i see lenihan is creeping up fast on nutly according to the boards vote. it should make an interesting fight for 4th place if this is anything to go by.
http://www.boards.ie/vote/results.php?type=local&c_id=21

Id say his strong c'knock vote will carry him.

Morag

I think that given the generations of people in the area who are 50+ are not for the most part on the site will skew the boards vote data. I still think that the second candidate on the FF ticket is a sweeper and Lenihan do well on transfers.

Also given how the area has changed are are voters in castleknock/carpenters town who can no longer vote with the rest of us as they were moved out of the constituency.

Timulus Package

Sharrow wrote: »

I think that given the generations of people in the area who are 50+ are not for the most part on the site will skew the boards vote data. I still think that the second candidate on the FF ticket is a sweeper and Lenihan do well on transfers.

Also given how the area has changed are are voters in castleknock/carpenters town who can no longer vote with the rest of us as they were moved out of the constituency.

I can't see Lenihan getting enough transfers. If his first preference is falling near the national polls figure then his transfer rate is down much futher. Add to that the huge Swords vote who have no history voting for him and he has a real battle. I think MCGuinness' transfers to Lenihan will be few as it will be mostly a personal vote he will get which will transfer to Nulty and Donnelly. Dublin West has a very young age compared to the National average.

Whish areas have been moved out of Dublin West? I thought all Castleknock and Carpenterstown were still in DW.

chucknorris

Timulus Package wrote: »

I can't see Lenihan getting enough transfers. If his first preference is falling near the national polls figure then his transfer rate is down much futher. Add to that the huge Swords vote who have no history voting for him and he has a real battle. I think MCGuinness' transfers to Lenihan will be few as it will be mostly a personal vote he will get which will transfer to Nulty and Donnelly. Dublin West has a very young age compared to the National average.

Whish areas have been moved out of Dublin West? I thought all Castleknock and Carpenterstown were still in DW.

Sharrow correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you were saying that so many, many houses in that area are now rented out that people who actually own them are not in DW anymore. This is the case.

Morag

You are wrong. I neither said or infered any such thing.

I was talking about people who have been told they are now in the Dublin North West rather then the Dublin West consitutency.

Those like poor Gaspode.

Gaspode wrote: »

None of the above will be getting my vote as this part of D15 is inside the Dublin North West constituency! Must have a look around see who I'll be given to vote for, dont know any of them at this point!

chucknorris

Sharrow wrote: »

I think that given the generations of people in the area who are 50+ are not for the most part on the site will skew the boards vote data. I still think that the second candidate on the FF ticket is a sweeper and Lenihan do well on transfers.

Also given how the area has changed are are voters in castleknock/carpenters town who can no longer vote with the rest of us as they were moved out of the constituency.

Apologies.

Castleknock and Carpenterstown are not in the Dublin north west area?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_North_West_%28D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency%29

That's why I assumed (incorrectly) that you meant literally moved out of the area.

So

"The area of west Dublin in recent years is probably the most redrawn constituency in the Republic of Ireland. The constituency is currently made up of the Castleknock and most of the Mulhuddart electoral areas of Fingal. The constituency encompasses Mulhuddart, Corduff, Blanchardstown, Castleknock, Carpenterstown, Barberstown, Clonsilla and Ongar.[3]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_%28D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency%29

Timulus Package

http://www.labour.ie/dublinwest/

Looks included here.

celtictiger32

Murt10 wrote: »

Don't forget we're taking in 1/2 of Swords now.

I have no idea of who or what is out there, except that there is a whole lot of people.

its a joke the way they've done that people in certain estates there have to vote for politicians from the blanch area that they know nothing about...

totallegend

celtictiger32 wrote: »

its a joke the way they've done that people in certain estates there have to vote for politicians from the blanch area that they know nothing about...

Interesting then, that in an election which has seen all sorts of independents standing elsewhere, that no-one from the Swords area decided to give it a lash in Dublin West. Probably not enough of a vote there, but still...
(unless that Esebamen guy is from Swords?)

Gaspode

chucknorris wrote: »

Castleknock and Carpenterstown are not in the Dublin north west area?

Parts of Castleknock are anyway

celtictiger32

totallegend wrote: »

Interesting then, that in an election which has seen all sorts of independents standing elsewhere, that no-one from the Swords area decided to give it a lash in Dublin West. Probably not enough of a vote there, but still...
(unless that Esebamen guy is from Swords?)

as far as im aware its only one or two estates on the southern end of swords that have been engulfed into this constituency

Kiwi_knock

It is understandable why none of the candidates are trying hard in the Swords area. Most of them are consolidating their support in their own areas. Burton and Varadkar see their seats as secure so they are not overly exerting themselves in trying to win votes in areas that would not have traditionally voted for either TD. Lenihan is trying to recapture some of the lost support in the Castleknock area. McGuinness, Nulty and Dennison are trying to consolidate and build on the support in their areas. Higgins and Donnelly are also then aiming for the majority of their votes in that same area so they have to concentrate their efforts there. The votes of the Mulhuddart/Blanchardstown region will decide where the final seat goes so that is where the candidates are concentrating their efforts.
Campaigning in Swords could potentially harm a candidate as they could lose their core block of voters.

Clement (Independent Candidate) is from Ongar so his efforts will be in that area as well.

Godge

Gaspode wrote: »

Parts of Castleknock are anyway

Which parts of Castleknock are in Dublin North West?

http://www.constituency-commission.ie/Images/map_b.jpg

http://www.constituency-commission.ie/Images/map_c.jpg


Looking at both of those maps, the Boundary of Dublin North-West and Dublin West follows the M50 from near Santry down as far as the River Road (a sort of east-west boundary) and then turns sharply along the River Road to Ashtown (a sort of north-south boundary which means the Travelodge is in Dublin West and Elm Green Golf Course is in Dublin North-West. At Ashtown there is a further change with Dublin West now bordering Dublin Central and the boundary following the line of the Phoenix Park down to the Liffey. There, as you head west again the Liffey becaomes the boundary between Dublin West and Dublin Mid-West.

I cannot think of any estates in the Dunsink area now part of Dublin North-West that might be called Castleknock and at the Ashtown end, the new Racecourse development seems to be in Dublin West.

Godge

celtictiger32 wrote: »

as far as im aware its only one or two estates on the southern end of swords that have been engulfed into this constituency

Looking at the map I have found (hope it is the correct one), those areas west of the Old Swords Road from where it goes under the M50 north to Swords village and south of the Ashbourne Road(?) have been moved into Dublin West.

http://www.constituency-commission.ie/Images/map_c.jpg

The airport is now in Dublin West. Wonder if that will increase Joe Higgins' chances while affecting Clare Daly if some of the estates transferred are airport workers?

Zaph

dtf wrote: »

Of course there is censorship. A poster has just been banned for expressing an opinion in favour of a candidate. Rightly or wrongly that is censorship.

I've been away for a couple of days, so just to clarify what actually happened here. Nobody was censored for expressing an opinion in favour of a candidate. I very clearly stated in post #218 that I would ban anyone who was not completely honest about their political affiliations. That's exactly what I did. The fact that the user in question is a canvasser for FF is completely irrelevant, I would have banned him regardless of what party he was canvassing for. That's not censorship, that's ensuring that no candidate is being allowed use this forum as a soapbox.

richardjjd wrote: »

What's surprised me is the last of canvassing - I live in Tyrrelstown and while we've had lots of leaflet drops, not one candidate, or representative, has knocked on the door yet. I tweeted each of the candidates inviting them to visit (politely!). Leo Varadkar and Joan Burton were the only two to respond: both said they had crews here over the past two weeks. Joan Burton said that she'd definitely be in Tyrrelstown before the 25th.

Are other parts of the constituency having the same experience?

ciaran76 wrote: »

My parents are in Willow Wood and they have had 2 different parties knock on their door. SP and FG I think they told me.

Last time round not a single canvasser called to my door (I wouldn't expect an actual candidate), however just now I've had my second canvasser of this campaign. Unlucky for him he was looking for support for Brian Lenihan.

athtrasna

Just had our first canvassers in the 7 years I've lived here, the Varadkar lot. Varadkar was getting my vote anyway, but I'm in shock that at last people have considered Waterville worth canvassing. Pity it wasn't FF though!

January

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

It is understandable why none of the candidates are trying hard in the Swords area. Most of them are consolidating their support in their own areas. Burton and Varadkar see their seats as secure so they are not overly exerting themselves in trying to win votes in areas that would not have traditionally voted for either TD. Lenihan is trying to recapture some of the lost support in the Castleknock area. McGuinness, Nulty and Dennison are trying to consolidate and build on the support in their areas. Higgins and Donnelly are also then aiming for the majority of their votes in that same area so they have to concentrate their efforts there. The votes of the Mulhuddart/Blanchardstown region will decide where the final seat goes so that is where the candidates are concentrating their efforts.
Campaigning in Swords could potentially harm a candidate as they could lose their core block of voters.

Clement (Independent Candidate) is from Ongar so his efforts will be in that area as well.

I live in Mulhuddart and not one candidate has bother to knock on my door. I've seen a few people doing leaflet drops during the day but no candidates and what's the point in calling around during business hours as most people would be in work anyway!

Morag

Finally had one an erstwhile young lady on the behalf of Joe Higgins, alas all she could do was ask for 1st preference and when asked questions started reading from a copy of the leaflet she handed me at the start.

Gaspode

Godge wrote: »

Which parts of Castleknock are in Dublin North West?
...
I cannot think of any estates in the Dunsink area now part of Dublin North-West that might be called Castleknock and at the Ashtown end, the new Racecourse development seems to be in Dublin West.

We're getting slightly off topic but here goes - Elmgreen, parts of Dunsink, the old River Road, and Scribblestown are strangely enough in Castleknock address wise, though they are physically cut off from Castleknock proper by the Navan Road. It's a historical thing - look at some of the maps in the historic photos thread and it makes more sense!
Anyway our polling cards arrived today and despite the Castleknock address on them the polling station is in Finglas. The joys of living on the border.

On topic-ish, the selection of candidates in DNW is so poor I really cant see myself voting at all this week. Count yourselves lucky!
At least I knew a few of the local politicians in DW, but I've never met a single one from DNW (and some I hope I never meet!).

Morag

Gaspode wrote: »

On topic-ish, the selection of candidates in DNW is so poor I really cant see myself voting at all this week. Count yourselves lucky!
At least I knew a few of the local politicians in DW, but I've never met a single one from DNW (and some I hope I never meet!).

I haven't lived out that way in over 15 years but there are still some of the same faces who were T.D.s back when I was a kid.

Godge

Gaspode wrote: »

We're getting slightly off topic but here goes - Elmgreen, parts of Dunsink, the old River Road, and Scribblestown are strangely enough in Castleknock address wise, though they are physically cut off from Castleknock proper by the Navan Road. It's a historical thing - look at some of the maps in the historic photos thread and it makes more sense!
Anyway our polling cards arrived today and despite the Castleknock address on them the polling station is in Finglas. The joys of living on the border.

On topic-ish, the selection of candidates in DNW is so poor I really cant see myself voting at all this week. Count yourselves lucky!
At least I knew a few of the local politicians in DW, but I've never met a single one from DNW (and some I hope I never meet!).

Thanks, didn't know that.

Castleknock gets bigger all the time!!!

Kiwi_knock

January wrote: »

I live in Mulhuddart and not one candidate has bother to knock on my door. I've seen a few people doing leaflet drops during the day but no candidates and what's the point in calling around during business hours as most people would be in work anyway!

Kieran Dennison last week said that FG could do their canvassing during the day because there were so many people at home at that time.

Timulus Package

Gaspode wrote: »

We're getting slightly off topic but here goes - Elmgreen, parts of Dunsink, the old River Road, and Scribblestown are strangely enough in Castleknock address wise, though they are physically cut off from Castleknock proper by the Navan Road. It's a historical thing - look at some of the maps in the historic photos thread and it makes more sense!
Anyway our polling cards arrived today and despite the Castleknock address on them the polling station is in Finglas. The joys of living on the border.

On topic-ish, the selection of candidates in DNW is so poor I really cant see myself voting at all this week. Count yourselves lucky!
At least I knew a few of the local politicians in DW, but I've never met a single one from DNW (and some I hope I never meet!).

These areas were moved to the Castleknock LEA for the 2009 locals. They remain in Dublin North, nothing changed in that regard. Perhaps this is were the confusion is. One housing estate on the River road (can't remember the name) was affected. Not only that but when it came to polling day in 2009 their ballot box got delivered to Blanchardstown village while their voting card told them to vote in Finglas. Many didn't get to vote due to this.

Zaph

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

Kieran Dennison last week said that FG could do their canvassing during the day because there were so many people at home at that time.

And for those of us who are still fortunate enough to have jobs presumably he's counting on us voting for him because we dislike the other guys so much, rather than actually taking the time to engage and discuss his policies with us? Seriously, as far as I'm concerned there is no difference between FF and FG, they're both as arrogant as one another.

amtc

Yeah, I got canvassed for the first time ever last night in Waterville - Fine Gael. Despite living there 7 years this was the first time. Was told previously (by a Labour supporter) that there were too many non nationals for them to bother. My point is that if they clashed the various electoral registers they would know I (and my neighbours) had been there seven years.

chucknorris

amtc wrote: »

Yeah, I got canvassed for the first time ever last night in Waterville - Fine Gael. Despite living there 7 years this was the first time. Was told previously (by a Labour supporter) that there were too many non nationals for them to bother. My point is that if they clashed the various electoral registers they would know I (and my neighbours) had been there seven years.

It is true in fairness. With a three week election campaign on this occasion, most canvassers will target concentrated areas of voters.

FG will canvass you as leo and Dennison are trying vote management to get the two of them through and I doubt it was Leo's team at your door.

dirtynosebeps

i'll be honest here. i'm watching the poll very closely. heres who i'm not voting for. lenihan and varadkar. i dont like the man (leo)and never have. have you noticed that anytime he's on T.V. around kenny he's shuffling trying to get his face all over the T.V. T.B.H i think we'll be worse off if they are single party government. as for lenihan. his party has destroyed this country blah blah blah etc.
with all that aside i'm in a dilema. in the boards poll i've only voted for 4/10. in an earlier post i did say i'll give my 1st pref to donnelly. now i know he hasn't got a hope in hell of getting in.lets be honest here.
now to the poll if it's anything to go by.
it's got me thinking and i'm looking very closely at the sums here. as i said i dont want lenihan in. so it would appear that i'll have to change my voting stratergy in order to try and keep lenihan out. i dont know nutly from adam. but in order to keep lenihan down the pecking order i'll have to change from donnelly to nutly.
at the end of the day it's all about the sums, and it would now appear that the boards poll may have a big influence on who i vote for. am i alone on this?