Dublin West General Election 2011 [Mod note post #218]

Timulus Package

dirtynosebeps wrote: »

i'll be honest here. i'm watching the poll very closely. heres who i'm not voting for. judas lenihan and i'm in ur face varadkar. i dont like the man (leo)and never have. have you noticed that anytime he's on T.V. around kenny he's shuffling trying to get his face all over the T.V. T.B.H i think we'll be worse off if they are single party government. as for lenihan. his party has destroyed this country blah blah blah etc.
with all that aside i'm in a dilema. in the boards poll i've only voted for 4/10. in an earlier post i did say i'll give my 1st pref to donnelly. now i know he hasn't got a hope in hell of getting in.lets be honest here.
now to the poll if it's anything to go by.
it's got me thinking and i'm looking very closely at the sums here. as i said i dont want lenihan in. so it would appear that i'll have to change my voting stratergy in order to try and keep lenihan out. i dont know nutly from adam. but in order to keep lenihan down the pecking order i'll have to change from donnelly to nutly.
at the end of the day it's all about the sums, and it would now appear that the boards poll may have a big influence on who i vote for. am i alone on this?

You don't have a dilema.

If you think Donnelly won't make it in ahead of Nulty you can still vote Donnelly No1 and Nulty No2. If Donnelly is eliminated before Nulty your vote will still go to Nulty making Nutly your default No1 vote and still keep Lenihan out.

On the flip side if this poll is wrong you would be best voting for who you prefer to be number one. As long as you put Donnelly and Nulty ahead of Lenihan on the list they will get your vote before Lenihan anyway.


EDIT- Vote right down the card 1-10. Even if you are just putting numbers at random in the middle and put you least favourite at the end. This way your sinlgle vote will always be in the pot working agaisnt those you don't want in. If you only vote 1,23 for example, your vote will be usless after the third count.

athtrasna

chucknorris wrote: »

FG will canvass you as leo and Dennison are trying vote management to get the two of them through and I doubt it was Leo's team at your door.

Not true, it was Leo's people in Waterville last night.

athtrasna

Timulus Package wrote: »

If you only vote 1,23 for example, your vote will be usless after the third count.

Nope. If you vote 1 for a candidate with an outside chance ie Nutley, Dennison or possibly Donnelly...your vote will stay with them until they are elected or eliminated. Only your first vote will count.

Timulus Package

athtrasna wrote: »

Nope. If you vote 1 for a candidate with an outside chance ie Nutley, Dennison or possibly Donnelly...your vote will stay with them until they are elected or eliminated. Only your first vote will count.

Yes, they are eliminated they will transfered. If there is a big enough surplus they will be transfered, and even small surplus' can be transfered. Either way you will stay in the pot untill all four seats are filled.

If you vote Varadkar and needs a few more votes to get him over the line it'll only be on top of your vote. Your vote will still count. If he has a surplus it will include your vote.

chucknorris

athtrasna wrote: »

Not true, it was Leo's people in Waterville last night.

Interesting, based on this article were you asked to give Dennison your number 1 ?

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/martina-devlin/martina-devlin-leo-enters-lions-den-in-his-close-encounters-with-public-servants-2550083.html

athtrasna

Timulus Package wrote: »

Yes, they are eliminated they will transfered. If there is a big enough surplus they will be transfered, and even small surplus' can be transfered. Either way you will stay in the pot untill all four seats are filled.

If you vote Varadkar and needs a few more votes to get him over the line it'll only be on top of your vote. Your vote will still count. If he has a surplus it will include your vote.

But what I was saying is that if I vote Dennison 1 - first 3 seats should easily go to Higgins, Burton & Varadkar. Their transfers will bump up the three I mentioned, then depending on how well Lenihan does, and how well Labour & FG manage the vote, it is possible that the 4th seat Lenihan/Nulty/Dennison will be filled without making the quota. Therefore my vote wouldn't move past 1.

I'm only voting 1 & 2, having considered the options long and hard. I can't even vote negatively on the others, I don't want to put a number beside them. Still haven't decided which FG candidate will get 1 and which will get 2, I will decide that myself, I won't be told by any canvasser!

amtc

chucknorris wrote: »

Interesting, based on this article were you asked to give Dennison your number 1 ?

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/martina-devlin/martina-devlin-leo-enters-lions-den-in-his-close-encounters-with-public-servants-2550083.html

I was asked to give Dennison Number 2.

Timulus Package

athtrasna wrote: »

But what I was saying is that if I vote Dennison 1 - first 3 seats should easily go to Higgins, Burton & Varadkar. Their transfers will bump up the three I mentioned, then depending on how well Lenihan does, and how well Labour & FG manage the vote, it is possible that the 4th seat Lenihan/Nulty/Dennison will be filled without making the quota. Therefore my vote wouldn't move past 1.

I'm only voting 1 & 2, having considered the options long and hard. I can't even vote negatively on the others, I don't want to put a number beside them. Still haven't decided which FG candidate will get 1 and which will get 2, I will decide that myself, I won't be told by any canvasser!

What's more likely to happen is Dennison gets eliminated and your No 2 becomes you No 1.

If it goes to the third count (which it will) your lack of third vote means that you vote every candidate other than your first two as equal in third. That's fair enough as it may be the case but i would like to my third to count against somone like Lenihan rather than equally for Leihan and 6 others.

Putting a big number beside some one is a negative on them. If a Candidate see a vote during the tally that has him number 10 he knows that person is against him. It a number by his name but it's a vote against him.

Zaph

dirtynosebeps wrote: »

i'll be honest here. i'm watching the poll very closely. heres who i'm not voting for. judas lenihan and i'm in ur face varadkar.

Warning given for name-calling. This sort of childishness is not welcome as it only serves to lower the tone of what has been a good debate so far. Please refer to post #1 if you need clarification of the thread rules.

athtrasna

Timulus Package wrote: »

If it goes to the third count (which it will) your lack of third vote means that you vote every candidate other than your first two as equal in third. That's fair enough as it may be the case but i would like to my third to count against somone like Lenihan rather than equally for Leihan and 6 others.
.

But people are under the impression that if someone say Varadkar has a surplus of 1,000 - they go through all of Varadkar's papers and allocate the 1,000 proportionally among all his number twos. They don't, they take a random sample...so my number two might not even move in the first place. If a candidate is eliminated then 100% of their votes are distributed but a surplus is different, and far less scientific.

Timulus Package

athtrasna wrote: »

But people are under the impression that if someone say Varadkar has a surplus of 1,000 - they go through all of Varadkar's papers and allocate the 1,000 proportionally among all his number twos. They don't, they take a random sample...so my number two might not even move in the first place. If a candidate is eliminated then 100% of their votes are distributed but a surplus is different, and far less scientific.

You could be right but I was under the impression that they do take them all on second preference. If not it's a bit of a joke.

If he has a surplus of 1000 they count all his vote and if Dennison has 50% of Varadkars votes then Denison gets 500 out of the surplus etc untill 1000 are re-allocated.

athtrasna

Looked it up - if elected on the first count, surplus is distributed pro-rata according to number 2s. After that it is a "random" sample of all the votes. Hence the differences you get on a re-count.

Raskolnikov

Varadkar and Burton will romp home, Higgins will be safe, that means the last seat will be between Dennison and Lenihan. I think it's absolutely critical for the country that we get Dennison in and Lenihan out. It will send a clear message that Ireland no longer wants to support millionaire property developers who have raided the tax coffers dry meaning we have overcrowded schools and people dying in trolleys in hospitals. I still think Lenihan will scrape through, but Dennison has a real chance if people get behind him.

chucknorris

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Varadkar and Burton will romp home, Higgins will be safe, that means the last seat will be between Dennison and Lenihan. I think it's absolutely critical for the country that we get Dennison in and Lenihan out. It will send a clear message that Ireland no longer wants to support millionaire property developers who have raided the tax coffers dry meaning we have overcrowded schools and people dying in trolleys in hospitals. I still think Lenihan will scrape through, but Dennison has a real chance if people get behind him.

http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/election2011/constituencies/dublinwest_detail.html

I expect the tipped four to take the seats.

Regarding Dennison, I think it maybe too late for him in the campaign but one thing that I have heard from a few people of different political sidings is that He really looks nothing like the image on the poster. The same image as the LEA 09.

Ok it's an odd observation but an observation all the same.

Raskolnikov

I agree, Lenihan is still favourite to take the fourth seat. However, I think with vote management, he could be nudged out.

chucknorris

Raskolnikov wrote: »

I agree, Lenihan is still favourite to take the fourth seat. However, I think with vote management, he could be nudged out.

It's a good point but the vote Dennison got in the locals was allot to do with Varadkar not running naturally, but this time Varadkar is running and needs a big big surplus to give Dennison the lift. Factor in that Nulty and McGuinness are going to eat Dennison's own first preferences while Sinn Fein will get the usual core Sinn fein vote.

There is a surge from Higgins and I feel it's planned and i think that will affect any big boost SF expect to get. Allot of people who are republicans usually associated with SF who now no longer back them will take the safe bet and go for Higgins.

I also firmly expect a by-election in this constituency in the future. Perhaps within 18 months IMO.

hotmail.com

chucknorris wrote: »

It's a good point but the vote Dennison got in the locals was allot to do with Varadkar not running naturally, but this time Varadkar is running and needs a big big surplus to give Dennison the lift. Factor in that Nulty and McGuinness are going to eat Dennison's own first preferences while Sinn Fein will get the usual core Sinn fein vote.

There is a surge from Higgins and I feel it's planned and i think that will affect any big boost SF expect to get. Allot of people who are republicans usually associated with SF who now no longer back them will take the safe bet and go for Higgins.

I also firmly expect a by-election in this constituency in the future. Perhaps within 18 months IMO.

If that is the case I really don't know why Lenihan is running. How much will a byelection cost?

dirtynosebeps

Timulus Package wrote: »

On the flip side if this poll is wrong you would be best voting for who you prefer to be number one. As long as you put Donnelly and Nulty ahead of Lenihan on the list they will get your vote before Lenihan anyway.


EDIT- Vote right down the card 1-10. Even if you are just putting numbers at random in the middle and put you least favourite at the end. This way your sinlgle vote will always be in the pot working agaisnt those you don't want in. If you only vote 1,23 for example, your vote will be usless after the third count.

T.B.H. timulus i'll be exercising my right to vote but i've no preferences as to who i'd like to be my number 1. it's easier for me to say who i'd rather not vote for than who i would. was going to post names but i'll mention parties. F.F. are out becuase of what they've done and F.G. the same becuase of what they will do when they get into power. the latter being caught out on different things. E.G. the health system. they want a dutch ( well i think it's dutch) model. this has proven to be more costly than initially thought.

as for it going down to the wire between dennison and lenhihan. personally i think it'll be between nutly and lenihan. alot of people are looking at F.G.'s maifesto closely. theres alot of working class people in the area. alot being in unions. i can see F.G. doing to the unions what thatcher did in the 80's in the U.K. and alot of semi-state companies will end up like in the U.K.

chucknorris

hotmail.com wrote: »

If that is the case I really don't know why Lenihan is running. How much will a byelection cost?

Well I could get knocked down tomorrow, but nothing is ever guaranteed. I simply predict there will be one.

oblivious

dirtynosebeps wrote: »

theres alot of working class people in the area. alot being in unions. i can see F.G. doing to the unions what thatcher did in the 80's in the U.K. and alot of semi-state companies will end up like in the U.K.

60% of work Irish are not unionised and those that are in the majority in public sector

AGC

chucknorris wrote: »

Well I could get knocked down tomorrow, but nothing is ever guaranteed. I simply predict there will be one.

I predict another General Election within 18 months!!

chucknorris

AGC wrote: »

I predict another General Election within 18 months!!

I doubt it personally, I think people generally accept that we face years of further cuts. Unless of course FG completely screw up. :eek:

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Varadkar and Burton will romp home, Higgins will be safe, that means the last seat will be between Dennison and Lenihan. I think it's absolutely critical for the country that we get Dennison in and Lenihan out. It will send a clear message that Ireland no longer wants to support millionaire property developers who have raided the tax coffers dry meaning we have overcrowded schools and people dying in trolleys in hospitals. I still think Lenihan will scrape through, but Dennison has a real chance if people get behind him.

Do you really thing the developers give a **** about who is voted in or out? None of the parties likely to be in power have mentioned holding the people responsible for the debt to account. Or making the bankers pay back their bonuses. Voting out FF sends a message that we're mad at FF now that it's all come crashing down, but were quite happy to leave them in power while we were all living the high life, even though all this development and bank stuff has been going on since at least 2003.

ronan45

Hi All, just got a printed hand written note from leo varadkar lol yes a printed one. Just wondering why is he urging me to vote him number 2 and kieran dennison number 1???? Should he not want my 1st vote? little confused ! Also lost my voting card can i still vote without it and just bring ID?

January

No idea on the first question ronan45, but on the second question, yes just bring ID to your polling station.

Murt10

I see that Lenihan has just nudged Nulty out to take the 4th seat on the poll.

I was expecting this but we'll see on Friday, when the important poll takes place. It looks very tight.

And in case anyone here has forgotten what Lenihan has said since becoming Minister for Finance, here's a link. The one that stands out for me “the cheapest bailout in the world so far”.

http://thestory.ie/quotes-from-brian-lenihan/

athtrasna

ronan45 wrote: »

Hi All, just got a printed hand written note from leo varadkar lol yes a printed one. Just wondering why is he urging me to vote him number 2 and kieran dennison number 1???? Should he not want my 1st vote? little confused ! Also lost my voting card can i still vote without it and just bring ID?

FG are trying to manage the vote to maximise the chances of taking two seats. The constituency will have been divided based on population/vote base with one half being asked to vote 1 Varadkar 2 Dennison and the other half 1 Dennison 2 Varadkar.

I think that will work for the Party faithful but not necessarily to all the new voters. Personally I like to vote the way I want to and not as I'm told to!

Timulus Package

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

Do you really thing the developers give a **** about who is voted in or out? None of the parties likely to be in power have mentioned holding the people responsible for the debt to account. Or making the bankers pay back their bonuses. Voting out FF sends a message that we're mad at FF now that it's all come crashing down, but were quite happy to leave them in power while we were all living the high life, even though all this development and bank stuff has been going on since at least 2003.

FF led by Brian Lenihan are responsible for the debt we have. They are the ones who took the Developers and Bankers debt and Nationalised it. The answer is simple, privitise it again.

Murt10

ronan45 wrote: »

Hi All, just got a printed hand written note from leo varadkar lol yes a printed one. Just wondering why is he urging me to vote him number 2 and kieran dennison number 1???? Should he not want my 1st vote? little confused !

Just got an email from Leo. Heres the plan

"For this reason, we are going all out to take two seats in Dublin West. To do this, we are asking our supporters to vote tactically. Therefore I am asking all Fine Gael supporters living in Kieran’s electoral area of Blanchardstown, Clonsilla, Mulhuddart and Clonee/Ongar to give Kieran Dennison their No. 1 vote and to give me their No. 2 vote. I am still asking people living in Castleknock and Swords to give me their No. 1 vote. "

ongarboy

ronan45 wrote: »

Hi All, just got a printed hand written note from leo varadkar lol yes a printed one. Just wondering why is he urging me to vote him number 2 and kieran dennison number 1???? Should he not want my 1st vote? little confused ! Also lost my voting card can i still vote without it and just bring ID?

Ireland's voting system of proportional representation by transfers means you can get in on sufficient numbers of No2s and lesser transfers (if you have enough of them) and not have to rely solely on No1s. I guess Leo's tactic is that he is secure in getting sufficient No1s and 2s in places like Clonsilla/Ongar/Clonee/Blanch to get in where as Dennison is more vulnerable. Therefore if enough voters give Dennison No1 and Leo No2, then both will comfortably secure seats for FG.

I must say I was also a little peeved by Leo also telling voters who would have planned to give him a No1 to actually give him a No2 (me for example) but I guess it depends how you want your vote to impact. Are you voting for the individual or the party?