Victor Chandler Chase - Ascot Saturday

Nulty

Master Minded looks an easy winner here but very prohibitive odds. None of these are good enough to beat him if he turns up on his best but then Nicholls is alledgedly out of form. Any one willing to take him on?

Petit Robin finished 2nd to MM last time and once here here at Ascot so he looks the most likely for the forecast.

Somersby is being guided towards the Ryanair by the sounds of things from Knight but his last three runs have had arguable excuses. Kicked before the race at Aintree, First time out at Sandown and tipped up on the walkway before Cheltenham. Looks a fast stayer though.

Mad Max overlooked by Geraghty and said to be aimed at the Grand Anual at the festival so things aren't encouraging from the yard about his chances.

Kalahari King is likely to end up going to the Ryanair so this could be too short for him these days. Has a hig rating but hasn't shown anything like it in a few runs.

Gauvain disappointed last time behind the market leaders at Cheltenham. Off the track for a considerable time he beat Forpady over 2m at Cheltenham. Questions over his consistency now and whether hes capable of reproducing the Cheltenham run.

Crack Away Jack was beaten at odds on by Somersby as novices. Hes a talented horse and Emma Lavelle has been positive about his chances of running a good race. Maybe a bit more to come from him but unlikely to bother the favorite.


The w/o Master Minded market is very interesting.

UrbanSea

I think Crack Away Jack might be worth a few quid for a place on Betfair. I don't rate Petit Robin too highly and Somersby and Mad Max looked like they've regressed to me. Just worried as to whehter Jack would need the run.

Bumsex

ya ive taken Master Minded in a treble along with Hurricane Fly and Kingscroft (Won),,

Main reason for taking master minded is that he seemed to be back to his close best last time out,making up a serious amount of ground fairly easy,and ran out a clear winner.
The main other reason (if youd call it that) is that hes won me a pile of money over the past and especially last time out,,deserves my backing even if it comes last..
Also on OR he is a head by a mile and if he lives any way up to his previous performance he will once again win easy.
Best of luck to all though,going to be a cracker of a race no matter what..:p

UrbanSea

I was gonna do the MM HF double aswell bumsex. Ratings are there for your peril aswell though. He went into the Champion Chase last year 19 pounds to the good. Nicholls' horses aren't running up to scratch either.

Bumsex

greetings wrote: »

I was gonna do the MM HF double aswell bumsex. Ratings are there for your peril aswell though. He went into the Champion Chase last year 19 pounds to the good. Nicholls' horses aren't running up to scratch either.

too be honest i dont look into much about this,,
each horses chances should be based on their own ability,not that of the trainers form,,never understood it tbh..

UrbanSea

I can see where you get that opinion,I used to be like that myself,but it's strange how stables can come in and out of form. Like for example I can tell you that Aidan O'Brian won't be able to buy himself a winner for about 6 weeks from when he sends out his first runners on the Irish flat racing calendar.
Don't back Godolphin until around the Guineas,but come September/October,every horse they send out will be going close.
There isn't a real reason for it,sometimes there is. When Tom Taffe's yard wasn't firing about a year ago,maybe 2,they discovered a virus in the yard (not saying this is the case here)
Marcus Trepgoning literally shut down his yard for about a month during the flat season over a year ago his horses were in such poor nick.
The list is endless,I wouldn't look at it so dismissively.

UrbanSea

Another one came to mind. Jonjo O'Neill's at the start of this jumps season. Abysmal.

I think lately some trainers out of form could blame it on the weather. Some horses thrive when training out on the grass but for 2 months or so they wouldn't have been able to properly work out on it with the heavy ground and frost. Some don't go as well on the gallops.

UrbanSea

Edit:It wasn't Tom Taaffe's it was Jim Dreaper's.

Goldcupfav

MM should win this however i wont be backing him at 8/13 or 4/7. The w/o market interests me. Gauvain e/w looks a decent shout to me at 7/1. Won 1st time out at Cheltenham after 19 months off beat a couple of good horses in FPTP and Tataniano handy enough. They went a mighty gallop that day and he should get the same here with Petit Robin and Im so Lucky looking to lead with Tchico Polos close behind. Last time out he was sent off 11/2 second fav to MM didnt run well and finished 5th the horse is better than that imo and i think the "bounce factor" could of been an excuse with him that day. Im willing to forgive that run and the 7's w/o MM looks good to me !!

UrbanSea

Gauvain was interesting for me too. Looks like a cracking race. I wouldn't be totally surprised to see MM beaten. You can make a case for nearly all the runners.

UrbanSea

Master Minded on the drift,8/11 can be got. I reckon they could well plough into him tomorrow though,could be like Kauto in last year's Betfair. Drifted in the days coming up to it and absolutely hammered in then. By last year I mean 09.

Bumsex

Well its the big one and all eyes will be on the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot at 2.25 and especially my selection Master Minded..
Paul Nicholls' recent form is something that ive been told to look into but quiet frankly in this race i dont think it matters one bit,The most noticeable recent loser being Kauto Star.
Anyway Master Minded comes here today as an 8 year old and who has previously won this race back in 2009, beating off opponents that he is running up against again today quiet easily..
There are a few other that catch the eye and may be the biggest dangers,them being Tchico Polos,who was impressive last time out carrying a heavy weight at sandown.
Crack away jack has no current form to go by as he hasnt been seen for almost a year but this should not be too far from where i see his ability being.Petit Robin and Somersby have to be given respect just on the basis of their position behind Master Minded LTO.
The Biggest danger though is Mad Max ,he has gone greater distances before but this could suit depending on how the race is run,if it goes a quick gallop from the off i think he stands a bigger chance..
Ok so back to why we should back MM,well AP Mccoy takes the ride for his 2nd time,MM has yet to lose with him on his back,most previous run winning by 10 lengths in front of Tidal bay back in late 2008,i have to say that i would prefer N Fehily to be on, as the last ride he gave him was one of the best rides i have ever seen a jockey give as he looked like there was no hope for him 4 out i think it was,he made up some ground that day and can still remember the bookies irrupting as he did so..MM owes me nothing from that day as it won me a wheel barrow of paper,.Five of his Ascot rivals were in the same race that day and since they are all running off the same weight there is nothing to suggest that that can change..He has since drifted out to 8/11 which is not a worry,It would be another big up set to see MM get beaten today,and even bigger than KS losing recently under the same trainer P Nicholls...
if it drifts further then im going to go in with a large single on MM as anything better than 8/11 is value in my eyes.

UrbanSea

On official ratings it was a bigger upset to see him beaten in the Champion Chase last year then it would be today.I can't have Tchico Polos,CAJ is lower on official ratings but I'd take him in a match bet. I think it shows how weak strength in depth is in this race. Petit Robin is a grade 3 horse in my book.

Goldcupfav

UrbanSea wrote: »

On official ratings it was a bigger upset to see him beaten in the Champion Chase last year then it would be today.I can't have Tchico Polos,CAJ is lower on official ratings but I'd take him in a match bet. I think it shows how weak strength in depth is in this race. Petit Robin is a grade 3 horse in my book.

Have to agree without MM in this race its looks like a grade 3 to me or a very weak grade 2 ! Hopefully MM wins easily so the bookies shorten him for the Champion Chase and push out Big Zeb a little bit! Big Zeb should be fav for the Champion imo. Like i said in a previous post the value is in the w/o MM market today imo. Gauvain e/w at 9/1 will be my selection.

Nulty

A Master Minded win today won't effect Big Zebs price....if anything it will push Gauvains, Kalahari Kings etc price out. Theres plenty enough support to hold Big Zebs price.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

On official ratings it was a bigger upset to see him beaten in the Champion Chase last year then it would be today.I can't have Tchico Polos,CAJ is lower on official ratings but I'd take him in a match bet. I think it shows how weak strength in depth is in this race. Petit Robin is a grade 3 horse in my book.

Ha! Petit Robin is a G3 horse? 2nd in 3 G1s and 3rd in another. Beaten only by Twist Magic and Master Minded. He's G1 class, just not enough to win one in that kind of company.

UrbanSea

If he wins well today we could see some even money quotes for the Champion. I think we might see a wee slide on Zeb,all of the English money would be on MM. Might get 9/2 by the end of the day depending on MM'S run.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Ha! Petit Robin is a G3 horse? 2nd in 3 G1s and 3rd in another. Beaten only by Twist Magic and Master Minded. He's G1 class, just not enough to win one in that kind of company.

Petit Robin will never win a grade 1 chase.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Petit Robin will never win a grade 1 chase.

Yes he will.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Yes he will.

Racing's a game of opinions. We'll agree to disagree.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Racing's a game of opinions. We'll agree to disagree.

No, your wrong! :mad: :pac:

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

No, your wrong! :mad: :pac:

Haha we may have to wait years to see who's wrong :pac:

mailburner

got 7/4 in pp shop on master minded and hurricane
couldnt believe my eyes

UrbanSea

mailburner wrote: »

got 7/4 in pp shop on master minded and hurricane
couldnt believe my eyes

They had 3/1 before Dunguib was pulled.

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

They had 3/1 before Dunguib was pulled.

amazing, and no threat whatsoever was dunguib

UrbanSea

I wouldn't have though so either.

mailburner

jesus
my heart

UrbanSea

He's drifted from 2/1 to 5/2 for the Champion. I had betfair open here. He went 5/1 literally on the line

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

He's drifted from 2/1 to 5/2 for the Champion. I had betfair open here. He went 5/1 literally on the line

i'd love a bit of that 5/1 i must say
thats a gift

UrbanSea

Isn't so much a gift when Sommersby was 1.2 and would have beaten him had there been another 2 yards.

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Isn't so much a gift when Sommersby was 1.2 and would have beaten him had there been another 2 yards.

got my wires crossed there
was thinking he went 5/1 for the champion