It will be interesting to see ...

Letyourselfgo

I'm very happy with my last few days punting really starting to chip away at the red for level stakes. I probably won't get to the 100 now as I know what I want to do come Monday.
This experiment has been very informative and I would urge everyone to do similar before using bigger stakes.
The table below has shown me what staking plan to use 1pt win/2 pt place and it's also told me that I do better on all weather, from the 84 selections 43 have been on AW and the results are 6 winners 22 placed efforts and 15 losers. I'll have selections up for tomorrow and then I'll be starting again.

So far 84 selections, 11 winners, 30 placed, 43 losers

Racing selections
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Sasheen 3:40 Ling|5/11|8.47|2.84|-1|-3|-1|
Inde country 5:05 Wol|2/9|11.97|2.66|-2|-0.68|+0.66|
Swimsuit 6:35 Wol|3/6|9.16|4.0|-3|-3.68|-0.34|
Chinese democracy 7:05 Wol|2/9|4.90|1.90|-4|-2.88|+0.56|
Cheveyo 7:35 Wol|2/13|8.38|2.70|-5|-0.48|+2.26|
Lordsbridge 12:40 Ascot|4/6|5.90|2.78|-6|-3.48|+1.26|
Skeleton 12:50 Lingfield|9/9|12.50|2.82|-7|-6.48|+0.26|
Flying squad 2:10 Wincanton|PU|9.80|3.40|-8|-9.48|-0.74|
I'm a legend 3:30 Ascot|2/11|7.0|2.28|-9|-7.92|+0.54|
Sioux rising 3:40 Lingfield|3/8|5.01|2.20|-10|-6.52|+1.74|
What a steel 1:50 Market rasen|3/16|6.36|2.14|-11|-5.24|+2.88|
Kinkeel 2:00 Towcester|1/7|5.90|3.05|-6.1|+3.76|+4.93|
Norville 2:10 Kempton|5/9|6.69|2.06|-7.1|+0.76|+3.93|
Sailors sovereign 2:30 Towcester|PU|8.0|2.42|-8.1|-2.24|+2.93|
Fujin dancer 3:25 Market rasen|3/12|22.99|6.40|-9.1|+7.56|+8.33|
Queenstown lad 4:05 Towcester|3/14|6.60|2.30|-10.1|+9.16|+9.63|
Turjuman 4:15 Kempton|3/8|3.40|1.46|-11.1|+9.08|+10.09|
Apache brave 1:25 Wetherby|4/6|4.0|2.36|-12.1|+6.08|+9.09|
Itwasonlyakiss 2:10 Kempton|8/10|9.45|2.54|-13.1|+3.08|+8.09|
Torteval 2:20 Wolverhampton|3/7|3.53|1.32|-14.1|+2.72|+8.41|
Astrodiva 2:45 Kempton|9/14|12.50|4.10|-15.1|-0.28|+7.41|
Sushailah 3:20 Kempton|3/11|18.50|5.70|-16.1|+8.12|+12.11|
Work boy 3:40 Wetherby|1/6|4.50|2.34|-12.60|+14.32|+13.45|
Gold story 12:50 Sth|2/12|4.20|1.81|-13.60|+16.94|+14.26|
Positivity 1:50 Sth|4/9|6.0|1.84|-14.60|+13.94|+13.26|
Donald will do 2:10 Leic|3/10|10.50|3.15|-15.60|+19.24|+15.41|
Tomintoul star 2:20 Sth|3/10|4.30|1.75|-16.60|+21.74|+16.16|
Waveband 2:50 Sth|2/6|2.57|1.62|-17.60|+21.98|+16.78|
Midnight diamond 3:00 Sedge|1/12|6.4|2.52|-12.20|+30.42|+18.30|
Hever road 3:40 Leic|4/10|22.81|5.10|-13.20|+27.42|+17.30|
Seasonselite 4:10 Leic|F|6.40|2.62|-14.20|+24.42|+16.30|
Chineses democracy 1:25 Lingfield|8/8|7.32|2.14|-15.20|+21.42|+15.30|
Radiator rooney 2:25 Lingfield|2/7|5.03|1.65|-16.20|+21.72|+15.95|
Sonara 3:05 Muss|4/10|4.80|1.88|-17.20|+18.72|+14.95|
Persian prince 3:35 Muss|2/8|8.41|2.62|-18.20|+20.96|+16.57|
Talenti 3:45 Hunt|7/13|17.33|4.80|-19.20|+17.96|+15.57|
Ice road trucker 5:35 Kempton|3/9|4.37|1.64|-20.20|+18.24|+16.21|
Killfinnian castle (5.4) 2:05 Font|UR|4.83|1.85|-21.20|+15.24|+15.21|
Sole witness (5.7) 2:20 Gowran|5/13|6.0|2.16|-22.20|+12.24|+14.21|
Douglas Julian (5.9) 2:30 Don|UR|8.94|2.98|-23.20|+9.24|+13.21|
Black baccara (4.1) 3:25 Ling|1/9|4.33|1.61|-19.87|+13.79|+13.82|
Kack handed (5.6) 3:40 Don|3/7|5.76|3.20|-20.87|+10.79|+12.82|
Fairy tales (8.0) 4:00 Ling|7/10|5.0|1.71|-21.87|+7.79|+11.82|
On the cusp (15.5) 4:40 Wol|2/11|19.68|4.10|-22.87|+12.99|+14.92|
Treacle tart (3.5) 5:40 Wol|4/6|3.15|1.78|-23.87|+9.99|+13.92|
Radiator rooney (4.2) 7:10 Wol|4/9|5.30|2.08|-24.87|+6.99|+12.92|
Blue moon (6.6) 1:25 Ling|1d/8|6.24|1.84|-22.25|+11.29|+13.76|
Diamond brook (9.0) 1:30 Chel|5/8|7.80|2.76|-23.25|+8.29|+12.76|
Chapoturgeon (11.5) 2:00 Chel|7/10|14.0|3.95|-24.25|+5.29|+11.76|
Speak the truth (12.0) 2:55 Ling|3/12|13.26|3.85|-25.25|+9.99|+14.61|
Master DOr (11.5) 3:45 Utt|1/9|10.50|3.0|-15.75|+23.49|+16.61|
Wicklow lad (5.1) 3:50 Fairy|UR|5.90|1.91|-16.75|+20.49|+15.61|
The cayterers (5.3) 4:05 Ling|6/8|7.55|2.50|-17.75|+17.49|+14.61|
Aather (14.5) 4:10 Chel|6/16|9.80|2.36|-18.75|+14.49|+13.61|
Constant cupid (8.0) 2:05 Here|1/11|6.4|2.22|-13.35|+22.33|+14.83|
Escardo (3.60) 2:15 Kemp|8/10|4.60|1.70|-14.35|+19.33|+13.83|
Not before eight (15.0) 2:20 Punch|UR|9.80|2.66|-15.35|+16.33|+12.83|
Welsh inlet (12.50) 2:45 Kemp|4/5|8.62|3.65|-16.35|+13.33|+11.83|
Noun de la thinte (6.80) 2:55 Fake|4/7|6.96|2.14|-17.35|+10.33|+10.83|
Roxane bruere (5.50) 3:05 Here|6/15|6.97|1.94|-18.35|+7.33|+9.83|
Mangonel (21.0) 3:35 Here|9/11|19.0|5.10|-19.35|+4.33|+8.83|
Flemensford (15.50) 3:50 Punch|16/21|12.0|3.80|-20.35|+1.33|+7.83|
Sovereignty (11.50) 5:15 Kemp|6/8|12.75|2.66|-21.35|-1.67|+6.83|
Hasper 2:50 Ayr|5/12|26.66|7.60|-22.35|-4.67|+5.83|
The cockney squire 3:25 Ayr|3/9|7.56|2.20|-23.35|-3.27|+7.03|
Straversjoy 5:20 Wol|1/5|4.17|1.83|-20.18|+1.56|+7.86|
Gold story (4.8) 2:30 Sth|2/11|4.40|1.63|-21.18|+1.82|+8.49|
Mamba (6.2) 3:20 Taun|P|9.50|3.10|-22.18|-1.18|+7.49|
Ocean transit (15.5) 3:50 Taun|10/14|19.11|4.40|-23.18|-4.18|+6.49|
Ermyntrude 1:10 Ling|3/9|6.23|2.20|-24.18|-2.78|+7.69|
Near the water 2:30 Leic|P|6.60|2.64|-25.18|-5.78|+6.69|
Edes dot com 2:40 Ling|1/9|8.79|2.84|-17.39|+5.69|+8.53|
Its teescomponents 3:50 New|3/7|7.0|2.06|-18.39|+6.81|+9.59|
San antonio 3:30 Sth|2/8|3.32|1.42|-19.39|+6.65|+10.01|
Cheveyo 4:00 Sth|2/13|5.70|2.22|-20.39|+8.09|+11.23|
Bel cantor 4:30 Sth|3/8|4.30|1.67|-21.39|+8.43|+11.90|
Excellent show 5:00 Wol|1/8|6.40|2.36|-15.99|+16.55|+13.26|
Avon rose 6:00 Wol|3/9|11.73|3.60|-16.99|+20.75|+15.86|
Rebel swing 2:25 Bang|5/11|5.09|2.0|-17.99|+17.75|+14.86|
Bricks and Porter 5:00 Wol|3/8|5.60|2.0|-18.99|+18.75|+15.86|
Bubbly bellini 1:20 Ling|3/11|6.43|2.38|-19.99|+20.51|+17.24|
Misaro 2:55Ling|7/11|18.06|4.30|-20.99|+17.51|+16.24|
Scamerdale 3:25 Ling|1/10|8.19|2.44|-13.80|+27.58|+18.68|
Leading contender 3:35 Sand|UR|5.98||-14.80|+24.58|+17.68|
||||||


P/L does not include betfair 5% commission

Letyourselfgo

Racing selections for Feb 7th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Decider 2:25 Wol||20%|60%||||
Private equity 3:00 Wol||50%|100%||||
Broughtons paradis||33%|66%||||


Starting tomorrow only all weather action will count, these are the 3 I like, can't believe Private equity is 3.8 on betfair, thought it would be much shorter.
You might be wondering what the % is about, I'm just trying sth out for the week before I put it into practice as regards staking, the % is the probability according to me on the horses chances of winning and placing are and looking at these % and the price of the horse should tell me if it's a bet or no bet and of tomorrows selections only Private equity is a bet (so far)

Any input would be much appreciated.

Letyourselfgo

So far 3 selections 0 winners, 2 placed, 1 loser

Racing selections for Feb 7th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Decider 2:25 Wol|8/11|4.70|1.80|-1|-3|-1|
Private equity 3:00 Wol|3/8|5.35|1.89|-2|-2.22|-0.11|
Broughtons paradis|2/5|2.79|1.52|-3|-2.18|+0.41|


Decider was very poor and finished well down the field. I thought private equity went well I just thought that it was kept too far off the pace for too long (but what do I know).
Broughtons paradis also went well and I normally don't add such shorties to my table but I really fancied it and thought it was in the bag coming round the bend.

Racing selections for Feb 8th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Go maggie go 2:15 sth||25%|75%||||
|||||||


I like Go maggie go for tomorrow but it will be a very competitive race. I also like Elhamri in the 3:45 but will see what the price is tomorrow.

Letyourselfgo

Yet another placed effort by Go maggie go she went off favourite aswell at about 4.8 but 5 minutes earlier was trading at 6.0, getting a little frustrated with so many placed efforts and not enough winners but as I wrote previously I'm using a 1pt win 2pt place.
I'm also going to include Elhamri in the table.

Letyourselfgo

Elhamri does the business at 3.?
and that's it for today.
So not too bad a start to the new experiment of AW only 1pt win, 2pt place.

5 selections so far 1 win, 3 placed, 1 loser
Racing selections
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Decider 2:25 Wol|8/11|4.70|1.80|-1|-3|-1|
Private equity 3:00 Wol|3/8|5.35|1.89|-2|-2.22|-0.11|
Broughtons paradis|2/5|2.79|1.52|-3|-2.18|+0.41|
Go maggie go 2:15 sth|2/8|4.93|1.73|-4|-1.72|+1.14|
Elhamri 3:45 Sth|1/8|3.06|1.47|-1.94|+1.28|+1.61|

Letyourselfgo

Racing selections for Feb 9th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
The happy hammer 2:30 Ling||20%|60%||||
Johnny hancocks 5:40 Kemp||30%|65%||||
Blue cossack 7:40 Kemp||30%|65%||||


I'm also considering giving Chinese democracy one last chance in the 4:40 at Lingfield but I'll sleep on it.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Racing selections for Feb 9th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
The happy hammer 2:30 Ling||20%|60%||||
Johnny hancocks 5:40 Kemp||30%|65%||||
Blue cossack 7:40 Kemp||30%|65%||||


I'm also considering giving Chinese democracy one last chance in the 4:40 at Lingfield but I'll sleep on it.

Given the fact that the happy hammer won, I'm going to give Chinese democracy one more chance, so I will include it in the table.

Letyourselfgo

So so today, a little annoyed that I went with chinese democracy as I only went with it because I backed it last 3 times and if it had of won I'd be annoyed but never again. I thought blue cossack was a little unlucky but winner deserved it.
So far:
9 selections so far 2 win, 4 placed, 3 loser
Racing selections
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Decider 2:25 Wol|8/11|4.70|1.80|-1|-3|-1|
Private equity 3:00 Wol|3/8|5.35|1.89|-2|-2.22|-0.11|
Broughtons paradis|2/5|2.79|1.52|-3|-2.18|+0.41|
Go maggie go 2:15 sth|2/8|4.93|1.73|-4|-1.72|+1.14|
Elhamri 3:45 Sth|1/8|3.06|1.47|-1.94|+1.28|+1.61|
The happy hammer 2:30 Ling|1/10|4.66|1.68|+1.72|+6.30|+2.29|
Chinese democracy 4:40 Ling|6/10|9.74|2.92|+0.72|+3.30|+1.29|
Johnny hancocks 5:40 Kemp|6/6|21.58|6.40|-0.28|+0.30|+0.29|
Blue cossack 7:40 Kemp|2/8|3.79|1.50|-1.28|+0.30|+0.79|

Letyourselfgo

Racing selections for Feb 10th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Short supply 2:50 Ling||33%|66%||||
Black baccara 7:40 Kemp||25%|75%||||


I'm also considering Saddlers bend in the 8:40 at Kempton aswell as one or two others.

Letyourselfgo

Just having a look over all my selections on the all weather since I started the log, just looking for possible ways to fine tune and what I've noticed is I'm crap at Kempton

Southwell
selections - 10
wins - 1
placed - 8
Lose - 1

Lingfield
selections - 17
wins - 5
placed - 5
Lose - 7

Wolverhampton
selections - 15
wins - 2
placed - 9
Lose - 4

Kempton
selections - 11
wins - 0
placed - 4
Lose - 7

Overall selections including Kepton
win strike rate 15.1%
Losers 35.8% (not including places)

Overall selections excluding Kempton
win strike rate 19%
Losers 28% (not including places)

So I'll keep an eye on this and see if I can't improve, I might start paying more attention to stall bias.

Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Letyourselfgo

I'll update the table later,not a great day yesterday.
Racing selections[/B] for Feb 11th
Horse|Result|BSP|BPSP|Level stakes|1pt win, 2pts place|1pt Place only
Neveda desert 1:15 sth|||||||
Herseille 1:45 sth|||||||
The dukes arch 2:50 sth|||||||
Granny anne 4:35 sth|||||||
Straversjoy 7:10 wol|||||||

Letyourselfgo

Brutal day yesterday and will tidy up the log tonight.
A few from newbury that I like (won't be included in the table)
1:55 - Sangfroid
2:25 - Riverside theatre
3:00 - Cornas

And slowly looking through lingfield (which will count in table)
2:35 - Primo de vida
3:05 - Nubar boy
3:40 - Even bolder

Letyourselfgo

Sorry I havn't been around of late, wasn't happy with my performance so some time off to think. I'm still going to concentrate on AW but this time just bigger prices. The only one I fancy at a big price is

5:10 - Southwell - Magnitude
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=523558&r_date=2011-02-22&horse_id=306776
has won of a higher mark, goes well on the surface and wasn't too bad behind a stanley rigby a horse in form.

currently trading at 13.5 on betfair which is what I'm going to take 1pt win and 2 pt the place, I could only get €2 at 4.2 the place so will try get the other €4.66 tomorrow.

Overall I'll put €10 euro on each race and will divide that between 1pt win, 2pt place. Hope that makes sense.
I also like the thoughts of LaEstrella (1:50) and stanley rigby 4:35) in a double but as I said already only concentrating on bigger prices.

Letyourselfgo

Magnitude has drifted terribly
is now 38/7.2 so I've put a few more quid on and will hope to trade some of it out.
€10 on the win at 25.59
€20 on the place at 5.6

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

I also like the thoughts of LaEstrella (1:50) and stanley rigby 4:35) in a double but as I said already only concentrating on bigger prices.

Obviously won't be included P/L but it's nice to show that I can win sometimes
paid out on paddy at 4.8

still think magnitude is too big.

Letyourselfgo

2:20 - Lingfield - Bollywood style
1pt win (7.0), 2pt place (3.22) (will try trade out of the win part)
not a great race and has a chance

I also think celtic committment has a good chance of placing in the 3:30 at Lingfield, place 3.15

Still have to look through Kempton.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

2:20 - Lingfield - Bollywood style
1pt win (7.0), 2pt place (3.22) (will try trade out of the win part)
.

Placed but will have to work out the rule 4. I assume it counts on betfair.

Letyourselfgo

Promise to tidy the log up later.

2 bets of value today that will count towards the log.

1pt win, 2pt place
4:50 - southwell - Bel cantor (13.0,win)(4.03, place)
He's 1 of 4 (elusive warrior, Zarius, Muqalad) that I think have a chance so tentative selection

4:55 - meydan - Krypton factor (8.0,win) (have placed 2 pts at 3.0 but hasn't been taken yet)
Strog selection in my opinion and feel it has a very good chance.

Others for today that I like but won't be included
5:20 - Southwell - Noble attitude
6:15 - Meydan - Kavango (10.0) and navajo chief (14.5)

Letyourselfgo

Racing selections since Feb 22nd
Horse|Result|BSP/price I got|BPSP/Price I got|1pt win, 2pts place|
Magnitude 5:10 Southwell|6/11|27.0/13.50|6.60/4.20|-3|
Bollywood style 2:20 Lingfield|2/6|4.69/7.0|2.42/3.22|+0.44|
Bel cantor 4:50 Southwell||13.0|4.03||
Krypton factor 4:55 Meydan||8.0|2.74||


My P/L on bollywood style does not include the rule 4 as I'm unsure if it counts on the place part and if it does I don't know how to calculate it, can anyone help ?

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

1pt win, 2pt place
4:50 - southwell - Bel cantor (13.0,win)(4.03, place)
He's 1 of 4 (elusive warrior, Zarius, Muqalad) that I think have a chance so tentative selection

Bel cantor in to 8.4 now thanks to Willie Carson putting him up as his best chance which is saying sth given that he rides an odds on fav in the second.

Letyourselfgo

Kempton
6:40 - Evey p @ 29.0/6.8

Just seems a bit big and I'm sure the step up to 6f will help, it's a wide open contest (I think) so why not take a chance.
I will include it in the table.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Others for today that I like but won't be included
6:15 - Meydan - Kavango (10.0) and navajo chief (14.5)

1st and 2nd

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

1pt win, 2pt place
4:50 - southwell - Bel cantor (13.0,win)(4.03, place)
He's 1 of 4 (elusive warrior, Zarius, Muqalad) that I think have a chance so tentative selection

4:55 - meydan - Krypton factor (8.0,win) (have placed 2 pts at 3.0 but hasn't been taken yet)
Strog selection in my opinion and feel it has a very good chance.

Others for today that I like but won't be included
5:20 - Southwell - Noble attitude
6:15 - Meydan - Kavango (10.0) and navajo chief (14.5)

The main 2 both lose, noble attitude placed.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Kempton
6:40 - Evey p @ 29.0/6.8

Just seems a bit big and I'm sure the step up to 6f will help, it's a wide open contest (I think) so why not take a chance.
I will include it in the table.

Evey p gone into 14.0 now, laying

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Evey p gone into 14.0 now, laying

4th in the end

Letyourselfgo

Hiphiphooray in the 7'40 @ 8.48/2.6

Letyourselfgo

Lingfield
2:00 - Misaro 8.4, a few with a shout but misaro just stood out.
4:15 - Red willow 11.0 (Atacama sunrise 10.5, also like but slight preference for the first)
5:15 - Timpanist 14.0 (Goodbye cash 15.5, also like but slight preference for the first given that its younger and still improving, this being only its 3rd start on AW)

Wolverhampton
5:55 - Cheveyo 10.5
I swore I'd never back this horse again but I was being very harsh, I watched its last race back and it had no luck, poor draw and had to go wide, finished well despite jockey giving up near the end. Better draw today and the jockey takes 7lbs off. My best chance today I think

Letyourselfgo

One more and the main reason is that I've followed it for a while.
8:25 - wol - Black baccarra 5.8
Is always in the mix, jokey takes a few pounds and is drawn better than others who should go well.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Lingfield
2:00 - Misaro 8.4, a few with a shout but misaro just stood out.
4:15 - Red willow 11.0 (Atacama sunrise 10.5, also like but slight preference for the first)
5:15 - Timpanist 14.0 (Goodbye cash 15.5, also like but slight preference for the first given that its younger and still improving, this being only its 3rd start on AW)

Wolverhampton
5:55 - Cheveyo 10.5
I swore I'd never back this horse again but I was being very harsh, I watched its last race back and it had no luck, poor draw and had to go wide, finished well despite jockey giving up near the end. Better draw today and the jockey takes 7lbs off. My best chance today I think

Misaro, red willow and cheveyo all place. I feel a more experienced jockey would have won on cheveyo, travelled the best IMO but the jockey missed his opportunity to go, next time

Letyourselfgo

Lingfield
2:10 - Rio royale 12.0/3.44
4:20 - Baylini 7.0