Turning much colder - Snow showers in the East

BEASTERLY

Iancar29 wrote: »

I always hav my trusty bins on my window ledge for any odd sight of white that i see on the mountains ha!

Found this the other day:
http://www.ihpa.ie/index.php/weather-all-in-one/246

Scroll down and there is a webcam, fantastic for snow watch.

thetonynator

I got so excited with the thread title. . . .but alas it was not to be. ah well, snow streamers or showers have only made it from the irish sea to here once in the last 10 years or so, and that was in early december. I'll wait in hope!

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

This is for the period Wednesday - Saturday. Increasingly cold East wind might bring harsher frost inland and snow showers to East coasts. ATM snow should not be significant and intially will be confiined to high ground. Risk of Ice developing. Very low inland night and day temperatures should be expected. This flow of air might be unstable at times leading to heavy hail and snow in the East. Quite severe minima temperatures are likely at night inland.

Heavy hail and snow? Not on your life, I don't know where you're getting that from. Maybe some light showers in the far southeast, but away from there mid-upper ridging will cap convection and the most we can expect is Sc sheets with some cumulus over the sea. No precipitation north of the Wexford-Wicklow border, and even south of that will be sparse.

Dublin Airport forecast soundings for Thursday and Friday, showing strong capping and no chance of precipitation.

Thursday



Friday

patneve2

Showers will probably occur from the North Dublin coast downwards (judging from current charts sometime between Wednesday and Friday), will be of light rain with a bit of hail in some locations. It doesn't take much for convection to bubble up over the Irish Sea, even when pressure is quite high.
However, I'm not enthralled as snowy prospects are non-existent:
1. Light and isolated showers
2. Ridiculous 500 hPa temperatures
3. Any patchy showers confined to coasts so snow flurries over higher up areas in Wicklow unlikely

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

This is for the period Wednesday - Saturday. Increasingly cold East wind might bring harsher frost inland and snow showers to East coasts. ATM snow should not be significant and intially will be confiined to high ground. Risk of Ice developing. Very low inland night and day temperatures should be expected. This flow of air might be unstable at times leading to heavy hail and snow in the East. Quite severe minima temperatures are likely at night inland.

Good to see you are back to your old self Darkman2!

pauldry

I think the weather for the next 2 weeks will be quiet and dry.. actually no real weather to speak of .. sorry

derekon

pauldry wrote: »

I think the weather for the next 2 weeks will be quiet and dry.. actually no real weather to speak of .. sorry

I agree. Unless there is some change in the models by this weekend, we could be heading into a bland, non descript February (usually the best month for snow in Ireland). We might be thanking God for all the heavy snow in November and December!

Su Campu

patneve2 wrote: »

Showers will probably occur from the North Dublin coast downwards (judging from current charts sometime between Wednesday and Friday), will be of light rain with a bit of hail in some locations. It doesn't take much for convection to bubble up over the Irish Sea, even when pressure is quite high.
However, I'm not enthralled as snowy prospects are non-existent:
1. Light and isolated showers
2. Ridiculous 500 hPa temperatures
3. Any patchy showers confined to coasts so snow flurries over higher up areas in Wicklow unlikely

Can you see showers forming in the soundings I posted? The Irish Sea's only around 8-9C, so any convection will hit the inversion at 850-800hPa, which won't be near enough to generate anything other than Sc and Cu med.

Of course the soundings could be wrong!

Min

Deleted User wrote: »

Theres actually a small patch of snow left on the top of Lugnaquilla.

I was wondering about Lugnaquilla, the days have not been clear enough to see them from here and I could see snow there before.

thetonynator wrote: »

I got so excited with the thread title. . . .but alas it was not to be. ah well, snow streamers or showers have only made it from the irish sea to here once in the last 10 years or so, and that was in early december. I'll wait in hope!

Wow, the north of the county seems to always get hit when there is snow showers coming off the Irish sea.

M.T. Cranium

Isolated 1-2 cms seems to be the over-under for this at the moment.

It will be cold enough, not convinced it will be moist enough. Better chances in southeast England where they get deeper into the cold.

But some snowflakes will probably be seen in Wicklow and/or Wexford, with Thursday the most likely date. Dublin perhaps 20% chance of a trace to half a cm.

I fully agree on the (almost) severe cold returning, -7 C could be recorded as early as Friday morning well inland.

Big Daddy Cool

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Isolated 1-2 cms seems to be the over-under for this at the moment.

It will be cold enough, not convinced it will be moist enough. Better chances in southeast England where they get deeper into the cold.

But some snowflakes will probably be seen in Wicklow and/or Wexford, with Thursday the most likely date. Dublin perhaps 20% chance of a trace to half a cm.

I fully agree on the (almost) severe cold returning, -7 C could be recorded as early as Friday morning well inland.

That'll be enough to get the snow lovers very excited, no matter how slim the slim chance of snowflakes is :rolleyes:

The probability of snow lying in urban areas of the east is very very very very low as to be non existent in my view so this little mini snap won't be noticed by 99.99% of the population.
I doubt it will snow at all in fact away from high ground by the weekend given pressure is high,the very few showers mightn't even reach higher ground.
It might be cold enough up at 850 height but not near the ground.
Local knowledge is telling me that.

2 to 4 c at surface level with above marginal dewpoints in the uk blowing over the irish sea to us further modifying air that at best has only originated in the north sea by the time it gets to us??

Thats going to lead to snow? give me a break!
This cold bias in forecasts is trending forecasts to hopecast territory not believable professional forecast territory.
No harm in dreaming I suppose.

We need a good few days,nay a weeks advection from where the cold has been allowed to retreat to before see'ing a return to winter proper.
Getting excited over the next few days is a waste of time.
Getting interested is not a waste mind you...because theres always the possibility that it could develop into something more.
Probability low as it stands on that too though unfortunately.

fizzycyst

Deleted User wrote: »

The probability of snow lying in urban areas of the east is very very very very low as to be non existent in my view so this little mini snap won't be noticed by 99.99% of the population.
I doubt it will snow at all in fact away from high ground by the weekend given pressure is high,the very few showers mightn't even reach higher ground.
It might be cold enough up at 850 height but not near the ground.
Local knowledge is telling me that.

2 to 4 c at surface level with above marginal dewpoints in the uk blowing over the irish sea to us further modifying air that at best has only originated in the north sea by the time it gets to us??

Thats going to lead to snow? give me a break!
This cold bias in forecasts is trending forecasts to hopecast territory not believable professional forecast territory.
No harm in dreaming I suppose.

We need a good few days,nay a weeks advection from where the cold has been allowed to retreat to before see'ing a return to winter proper.
Getting excited over the next few days is a waste of time.
Getting interested is not a waste mind you...because theres always the possibility that it could develop into something more.
Probability low as it stands on that too though unfortunately.

Even though there is only a slim chance of anyone getting snow over the next few days I think it's good to be told it might happen. What I mean is that, if all the forecasters decided to be conservative all the time, without making us aware of the possibilities, there would be no learning in that. I think having a good mix of conservative and, lets say, slightly optimistic forecasts is the best way for those of us (newbies) looking at the charts to discern where all the ideas come from.

Fizzycyst-theres a line to be drawn too at where you mention the possibility of snow.
Beyond that line to a further line you get beyond and you reach the point where you mention the possibility of disruption from snow which is what you want to be warned about.
We're extremely unlikely to reach the first line,never mind the 2nd line.

There is actually a third line though,that comes before those first two and thats the hopecast line where snow is mentioned even though the probability is below 10% ie possible but highly unlikely.
Thats the line we often reach on this and the two big uk fora.
You could more accurately describe that as the hopecast-cold enthusiasts line.

There is a demand in forums like this one and others for threads that search for interesting winter[and summer later] weather.
Mt's forecast thread while very good and very accurate a lot of the time does play an element somewhat to that audience.
You can see this in his many references to his opinion that milder or bland interludes may be short lived and pointing out possible scenarios where the cold may return.
He's right to do that for that audience,they form the majority on weather boards but bear in mind why it's being done.
It's not as fashionable or wanted by those who frequent weather boards to have our dull normal rainy weather over extremes.
Thats entirely different to sticking to providing an immediate forecast which is what the met agencies endeavour to do.

Those parts of his forecasts though from what I can see are either based on his research models [which I'm not familiar with] but which to be fair have proved reasonably broadly accurate this year from what I've seen of them[I can't comment on any other year because I haven't been following] or they're based on possible outcomes and blends and opinions on nwp's.

With the latter,you'll see him do what you see all the time in the two uk fora and thats people saying we need this to go here and that to go there and then we get such and such.
Thats actually done well by Mt in my opinion as he usually adds probabilities,it's also done in an explanatory/informational way. [I happen to disagree with the likelyhood of snow on his latest forecasts for the reasons stated earlier but then if everybody agreed,nobody would be thinking and thats life,I think he's being over optimistic regarding a brief snow window in the coming days but then I can be and am often wrong]

Hi Mt by the way and sorry to be talking about you while you are asleep but you know what I mean.

fizzycyst

I honestly do see your point BB, but I guess what I was trying to say is that the people who frequent the weather boards should be able to take a forecast that has snow as possibility and not as an absolute fact without feeling hard done by when it doesn't happen. The key word here is possibility.
I love the cold myself, and yes when I see a thread like this one I do get a bit excited (especially being from my neck o'the woods) but I am by no means expecting it to snow. Hoping and expecting are two very different things.;)

Su Campu

fizzycyst wrote: »

I honestly do see your point BB, but I guess what I was trying to say is that the people who frequent the weather boards should be able to take a forecast that has snow as possibility and not as an absolute fact without feeling hard done by when it doesn't happen. The key word here is possibility.

But unfortunately that keyword does not appear in the title of the thread, which is misleading.

I love the cold myself, and yes when I see a thread like this one I do get a bit excited (especially being from my neck o'the woods) but I am by no means expecting it to snow. Hoping and expecting are two very different things.;)

darkman2

I think the forcast is a bit different to that in the OP for the coming days. It will be turning much colder from tomorrow with increasingly cold nightime minimum and daytime maximum temperatures. Frost will become severe again and precipitation in the East should lead to icy conditions. As for the showers - they will certainly be wintry where they occur and some snow showers cannot be ruled out particularly on higher ground. I never said anything significant would occur though was probrably wrong to use the word "heavy". It will be alot colder then it is now from tomorrow onward and from Friday minimum temperatures at night should range from 0 - -7 or -8c inland. Just because we have a relatively boring synoptical situation does not mean no interesting cold weather to be observed. Hopefully changes will happen in the next few days so as to make things more interesting in here.

Rebelbrowser

Deleted User wrote: »

Fizzycyst-theres a line to be drawn too at where you mention the possibility of snow.
Beyond that line to a further line you get beyond and you reach the point where you mention the possibility of disruption from snow which is what you want to be warned about.
We're extremely unlikely to reach the first line,never mind the 2nd line.

There is actually a third line though,that comes before those first two and thats the hopecast line where snow is mentioned even though the probability is below 10% ie possible but highly unlikely.
Thats the line we often reach on this and the two big uk fora.
You could more accurately describe that as the hopecast-cold enthusiasts line.

There is a demand in forums like this one and others for threads that search for interesting winter[and summer later] weather.
Mt's forecast thread while very good and very accurate a lot of the time does play an element somewhat to that audience.
You can see this in his many references to his opinion that milder or bland interludes may be short lived and pointing out possible scenarios where the cold may return.
He's right to do that for that audience,they form the majority on weather boards but bear in mind why it's being done.
It's not as fashionable or wanted by those who frequent weather boards to have our dull normal rainy weather over extremes.
Thats entirely different to sticking to providing an immediate forecast which is what the met agencies endeavour to do.

Those parts of his forecasts though from what I can see are either based on his research models [which I'm not familiar with] but which to be fair have proved reasonably broadly accurate this year from what I've seen of them[I can't comment on any other year because I haven't been following] or they're based on possible outcomes and blends and opinions on nwp's.

With the latter,you'll see him do what you see all the time in the two uk fora and thats people saying we need this to go here and that to go there and then we get such and such.
Thats actually done well by Mt in my opinion as he usually adds probabilities,it's also done in an explanatory/informational way. [I happen to disagree with the likelyhood of snow on his latest forecasts for the reasons stated earlier but then if everybody agreed,nobody would be thinking and thats life,I think he's being over optimistic regarding a brief snow window in the coming days but then I can be and am often wrong]

Hi Mt by the way and sorry to be talking about you while you are asleep but you know what I mean.

Far too rational, balanced and well reasoned for us coldies. BOOOOOOOOOOO!

Su Campu

The latest GFS forecast sounding for Buoy M2 east of Dublin shows very meagre chances of precipitation, with cloud thicknesses of only around 3,000ft. Even given the best case scenario (unlikely) of temperature and dewpoint both around 8°C gives cloudtops at around 8,000ft - not near enough to cause precipitation of any note, (and of course would be way too warm for snow at sea-level anyway!).

Of course low-level instability will be vigorous, so the clouds could overshoot slightly higher than the 5,000ft indicated, but it really doesn't look like much will happen. Yes the boundary layer will be cold, and frosts will be severe where cloud clears, but I think anyone looking for snow, apart from MAYBE Wexford, will be dissapointed. Johnstown Castle may be the only station to record precipitation I reckon.

Pangea

Whatever about the future, just looking forward to a nice week of frost, got soaked to the skin tonight, I was more uncormfortable than anytime I was during the big freeze!!

M.T. Cranium

The 18z GFS has a slightly colder look for Thursday, this may just barely work out to produce a bit of snow, hope somebody reports it on here, if I had to guess where it would be just inland from Wicklow south.

darkman2

Hail/sleet here in Malahide - any showers may be of snow by the morning.

eskimocat

Any more showers since, any actual snow???

Not

eskimocat wrote: »

Any more showers since, any actual snow???

Does a shredded straw blowing in the wind count ?

mike65

fizzycyst

when was that taken Mike?

mike65

This morning of course!

End Novermber/early December.

eskimocat

eskimocat wrote: »

Any more showers since, any actual snow???

I can confirm lugnaquilla mtn in co wicklow (3039 ft a.s.l) is covered in snow from its top to its base today. A couple of days ago it had only a patch left but this is new snow.
Meanwhile whilst cleaning the dungstead here yesterday..low and behold it was full of old snow from last december! Also the man made pile in the courthouse carpark in arklow still survives 6 weeks nearly later which is incredible!

fred funk }{

Deleted User wrote: »

I can confirm lugnaquilla mtn in co wicklow (3039 ft a.s.l) is covered in snow from its top to its base today. A couple of days ago it had only a patch left but this is new snow.
Meanwhile whilst cleaning the dungstead here yesterday..low and behold it was full of old snow from last december! Also the man made pile in the courthouse carpark in arklow still survives 6 weeks nearly later which is incredible!

Ye, iv seen piles of snow in a few places. It really is incredible they're still there. We've had some extended mild periods and rain.

Harps

Same here, still quite a sizeable pile in the car park outside Tesco. Theres been consistently some snow now since November 25th which is amazing considering the mild weather and heavy rain at the start of this month

On the note of snowfall, theres been a few showers in Donegal today. Not sticking but something at least